According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips stripped from modules continue to flow into the spot market, adversely affecting the market outlook. As for NAND flash, contract prices for 3Q24 have exhibited signs of loosening. Some module houses are even selling their high-priced client SSD at a loss in order to rid inventory and reduce overall losses. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips stripped from modules continue to flow into the spot market. Since prices of reball chips are lower compared with eTT chips and are in good quality, these products are adversely affecting the market outlook. Additionally, facing mounting pressure to sell, some module houses with higher inventory levels have started to cut prices, focusing primarily on clearing their stocks. Overall, the spot market is unlikely to see a significant improvement in the short term. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.10% from US$1.964 last week to US$1.962 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Contract prices for 3Q24 that have exhibited signs of loosening, alongside the market’s reserved attitude on the future prospect, have prompted a rather large degree of truncation among retail and channel markets. Some module houses are even selling their high-priced client SSD at a loss in order to rid inventory and reduce overall losses. This phenomenon is likely to persist until 4Q24. Spot price of 512Gb TLC wafers dropped by 3.73% this week, arriving at US$2.710.

Taiwan’s Commercial Times, citing industry sources, reports that Samsung’s memory and smartphone divisions are considering outsourcing orders to Taiwanese firms, including TSMC and MediaTek.

Competition in the global semiconductor industry remains fierce. In the foundry sector, TrendForce data shows TSMC retained its top spot in Q2, with quarterly revenue of $20.82 billion and a 62.3% market share. Samsung, ranked second, saw its quarterly revenue grow 14.2% to $3.83 billion, with an 11.5% market share.

The Commercial Times reports that Samsung’s major business lines have recently underperformed expectations, with its foundry and memory divisions facing stiff competition from TSMC and SK Hynix. Its smartphone business has also been plagued by the “green line issue.” To reverse the tide, Samsung is looking to collaborate with Taiwanese manufacturers.

According to Commercial Times, due to yield issues with the Exynos 2500, it remains unclear whether the chip will power Samsung’s smartphones. In addition to its partnership with Qualcomm, Samsung is reportedly in talks with MediaTek to use its Dimensity chips for next year’s flagship S-series phones as a second source.

Benefiting from this shift, Novatek is reportedly well-positioned to gain orders from Samsung, thanks to its competitive pricing. Novatek, which already supplies Apple with iPhone OLED DDIC chips, has proven its technical capabilities to major global brands and could become a cost-saving option for Samsung.

Meanwhile, following Micron’s establishment of a DRAM facility in Taiwan, SK Hynix has also expressed interest in deepening its collaboration with TSMC. Samsung’s memory business president, Jung Bae Lee, has signaled a willingness to explore future partnerships with TSMC. Industry insiders, cited by Commercial Times, note that if AI chips use ASIC paired with HBM, the base die will require advanced manufacturing, making TSMC the top choice for memory firms.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

In 2024, the storage market is experiencing dynamic changes, with many positive developments, including rising contract prices, significant revenue growth for manufacturers, and multiple breakthroughs in technology. Amid this, major storage companies are gearing up for new challenges, especially as the NAND flash memory sector faces an impending shift.

How Far Have Major Companies Progressed with NAND Flash Technology?

This year, major storage manufacturers like Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have all made notable advancements in NAND flash technology.

In terms of NAND cell technology, Samsung has become the first in the industry to mass-produce its 9th generation V-NAND with QLC technology. On September 12, Samsung announced it had begun mass production of its 1Tb QLC (Quad-Level Cell) 9th generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), incorporating several groundbreaking technologies.

From a technological innovation perspective, Samsung’s 9th generation QLC V-NAND employs its unique channel hole etching technology to achieve the industry’s highest stack height with a dual-stack structure. Leveraging the expertise of TLC 9th generation V-NAND, the cell area and peripheral circuits are optimized, resulting in an 86% higher bit density than the previous generation.

Compared to earlier versions, the design of Samsung’s 9th generation QLC V-NAND improves data retention performance by about 20%, enhancing product reliability. Writing performance has doubled, and data input/output speeds have increased by 60%. Additionally, its low-power design reduces power consumption for both read and write operations by approximately 30% and 50%, respectively. This is achieved by sensing only the necessary bit lines (BL) to minimize power usage.

In terms of applications, Samsung plans to expand the use of the 9th generation QLC V-NAND from branded consumer products to mobile universal flash storage (UFS), PC, and server SSDs to meet the demands of customers, including cloud service providers.

Sung Hoi Hur, Executive Vice President and Head of Flash Product and Technology at Samsung Electronics, stated that as the enterprise SSD market grows rapidly and demand for AI applications increases, the company will continue to strengthen our leadership in the high-capacity, high-performance NAND flash market through 9th-generation QLC and TLC V-NAND.

However, at present, the mainstream products in the market are still TLC NAND flash memory particles. On August 6, SK Hynix’s Solidigm launched PCIe 5.0 data center SSDs, the D7-PS1010/1030 series, based on SK Hynix’s 176-layer 3D TLC NAND.

On September 11, SK Hynix announced the development of its high-performance SSD “PEB110 E1.S” for data centers, available in 2TB, 4TB, and 8TB versions. Currently undergoing validation with global data center customers, SK Hynix plans to begin mass production in the second quarter of next year.

On the other hand, Micron announced in late July that its SSD products featuring 9th generation (G9) TLC NAND technology had entered mass production, targeting personal devices, edge servers, enterprises, and cloud data centers. Micron’s G9 NAND achieves a data transfer rate 50% faster than current NAND technology used in SSDs. Its per-chip write and read bandwidths are 99% and 88% higher, respectively, than other NAND solutions. The Micron 2650 NVMe SSD, based on G9 NAND, achieves near-PCIe 4.0 performance levels, with a sequential read speed of up to 7,000 MB/s.

Micron also launched its new data center SSD, the 9550 NVMe SSD, featuring 232-layer 3D TLC NAND. It supports various AI workloads, offering a sequential read speed of 14.0 GB/s and a write speed of 10.0 GB/s—67% higher than competitive SSDs. The 9550 SSD’s random read speed reaches 3,300K IOPS, 35% higher than competitors, with random write speeds 33% higher.

The future of QLC SSDs is promising

Industry information indicates that NAND Flash, the core medium for data storage, is vital for SSD performance. Current SSDs use both TLC (Triple-Level Cell) and QLC flash.

In the AI era, there is a growing demand for storage, with SSDs playing a critical role. According to TrendForce, SSDs not only store model parameters during AI model training but also create checkpoints to save progress, making them crucial for high-speed data transfer and durability. As a result, customers primarily opt for 4TB/8TB TLC SSDs to meet the rigorous demands of AI training processes.

QLC SSDs, however, are gaining attention due to their higher storage density, which optimizes server space and reduces energy consumption. They can help large-scale data centers lower their total cost of ownership (TCO) while still meeting high-performance storage needs. Industry experts predict that as more data is generated in the form of videos and images, requiring larger storage capacities, TLC/QLC SSDs of 16TB or more will become the primary products for AI inference applications.

According to TrendForce, AI-related SSD procurement is expected to exceed 45 exabytes (EB) in 2024, with SSD demand in AI servers projected to grow by over 60% annually in the coming years. The share of AI SSDs within the NAND Flash market could rise from 5% in 2024 to 9% in 2025.

The Changing Landscape of the NAND Flash Market

On September 9, TrendForce’s latest research  indicates that in the second quarter of 2024, Samsung maintained its global leadership in the NAND Flash market with a 36.9% market share, up 0.2% from the previous quarter. SK Group followed with a 22.1% share, down 0.1%. Other key players include Kioxia (13.8%), Micron (11.8%), and Western Digital (10.5%).

In terms of revenue, Samsung, SK Group, Kioxia, Micron, and Western Digital all experienced quarter-on-quarter growth in NAND Flash revenues during the second quarter. Overall, NAND Flash revenue increased by 14% in the second quarter.

TrendForce indicates that as the inventory adjustments for server endpoints near completion and AI drives demand for high-capacity storage products, NAND Flash prices continued to rise in Q2 2024. However, due to high inventory levels at PC and smartphone manufacturers, NAND Flash bit shipments decreased by 1% quarter-over-quarter. Despite this, the average selling price increased by 15%, with total revenue reaching USD 16.796 billion, a 14.2% increase from the previous quarter.

Looking ahead to Q3, TrendForce expects that all NAND Flash suppliers have returned to profitability as of Q2 and plan to expand production capacity in Q3 to meet strong demand from AI and servers. However, due to weak market performance in the PC and smartphone sectors in the first half of the year, it is challenging to boost NAND Flash shipments. It is estimated that the average selling price of NAND Flash products will increase by 5% to 10% in Q3, while bit shipments may decrease by at least 5% due to a lack of peak season demand. Industry revenue is expected to remain roughly the same as the previous quarter.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to a recent report from BusinessKorea, Morgan Stanley published its “Winter Looms” analysis, following last month’s “Prepare for the Peak,” which warned of an AI bubble. The report continues to take a bearish view on Korean memory chipmakers, citing weak demand for general DRAM and an oversupply of AI-specific high bandwidth memory (HBM).

Morgan Stanley projects that in 2024, global HBM supply will hit 250 billion gigabits (Gb), far exceeding demand, estimated at 150 billion Gb—a surplus of 66.7%. The firm also points to Samsung Electronics’ aggressive expansion into the HBM market as a major factor driving this potential oversupply.

BusinessKorea cited industry insiders who argue that Morgan Stanley’s outlook is excessively pessimistic. They note that the HBM market is driven by customized, client-approved products, making oversupply less likely. Both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have publicly stated that HBM supply is fully booked through 2025.

Critics further contend that Morgan Stanley has underestimated the scale of AI investment by major tech firms, which is the main driver of HBM demand. While the report projects that AI investment growth from 10 major tech companies will drop sharply from 52% this year to 8% next year, Bloomberg forecasts a 33.7% rise this year and a 13.4% increase in 2025 across 13 leading tech firms.

Morgan Stanley also predicts that general DRAM will peak in Q4 2024 and begin a multi-year decline through 2026, citing weak demand for semiconductor-reliant IT products. The global PC and smartphone markets have indeed been sluggish, with reports indicating that pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone 16 series were down 13% compared to its predecessor. However, the same report noted that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have both stated that demand for memory in smartphones and PCs remains stable.

TrendForce Senior Vice President Avril Wu noted that while DRAM prices have shown signs of weakness over the past two quarters, the overall average selling price is expected to rise by 2025. Wu added that as HBM continues to take up more conventional DRAM production capacity, pricing across different products may vary, but the increasing penetration of HBM should help stabilize the DRAM market, leaving the firm less pessimistic about next year’s outlook.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Regarding the continuous struggle of its foundry business, Samsung has reportedly decided to make another move, as its semiconductor division (DS) plans to undertake a major organizational restructuring within the year, according to a report by Chosun Biz.

Through the restructuring, DS Division President (Vice Chairman) Jeon Young-hyun is said to focus on addressing major issues related to organizational culture, such as the lack of communication between departments and team self-interest, the report notes.

The revelation follows Samsung’s reported up to 30% layoffs in overseas workforce last week, as noted by Reuters. The plan, set to be implemented by the end of this year, will affect jobs across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Citing industry sources, the report indicates that Samsung Electronics’ DS division plans to strengthen collaboration processes by integrating existing team-based structures into a project-centered model, with an aim to resolve issues arising from the siloed operation of departments.

As a comprehensive semiconductor company with a broad range of businesses, Samsung faces quite a few challenges, while the proliferation of business units and task forces leads to competition and friction between departments. In the development of chips or processes, differing interests among departments—such as semiconductor design, fabrication, and reliability evaluation—can cause communication problems, which may ultimately lead to business failures.

Samsung has been fighting to catch up with its rivals, not only in the foundry sector but in memory as well. Chosun Biz notes that the Korean semiconductor giant is lagging behind competitors in areas like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), cutting-edge DRAM, and foundry technology over the past 2-3 years, which may be attributed to this organizational culture.

Samsung’s foundry division has been working out to mass-produce 3-nm GAA (Gate-All-Around) technology for around three years but still struggles with customer acquisition. A report by The Korea Times states that the yield for Samsung’s 3nm process remained in the single digits until Q1 this year, and slightly improved to about 20% in Q2, though still significantly below the 60% threshold generally needed for mass production.

In terms of DRAM, Samsung seems to gradually lose the leading edge as it has started to fall behind SK hynix, especially in the HBM market. In its latest attempt, Samsung teams up with its foundry rival, TSMC, on the development of HBM4, according to Business Korea.

Moreover, Samsung is facing challenges on the DDR5 DRAM market. Chosun Biz suggests that discrepancies between the quality goals set by the development department and the actual specifications of the mass-produced product delayed Samsung’s entry into the server DDR5 DRAM market by more than 3-6 months, compared to SK hynix.

The report took its setback in the 10-nm 5th generation (1b) DDR5 server DRAM last year as an example. The product, which supplied to Intel, failed to meet the promised performance and was deemed substandard.

In early September, another report by Korean media outlet ZDNet reveals that the tech giant might be facing difficulties in its cutting-edge mobile DRAM, as Samsung’ Mobile eXperience (MX) Division reportedly raised concerns with the DS Division about delays in the delivery of 1b-based LPDDR (low-power DRAM) samples, which are intended to be used in the Galaxy S25 series.

A Samsung Electronics spokesperson cited by Chosun Biz admitted that there continues to be a disconnection between the departments developing new processes and those responsible for mass production, with serious issues arising from the shifting of blame for failures.

However, would Samsung’s latest effort work out? An industry insider cited by the report notes that Intel has attempted to make a change through the “IDM 2.0” strategy over the past three years, but solving these issues in a short period of time has proven difficult. He suggests that it is necessary to go beyond just restructuring to fundamentally change the organization.

Read more

• [News] Samsung Partners with TSMC, Its Foundry Rival, on HBM4 Development
• [News] Samsung Reportedly Buckling Under Pressure, with Plans to Cut Overseas Workforce by Up to 30%

(Photo credit: Samsung)