According to recent reports, Huawei is expected to unveil its flagship P70 series later this year, alongside the introduction of the new Kirin 9010 chipset. However, there are indications that the older Kirin 9000S might be utilized in a specific model.

Wccftech suggests that the P70 series will include the P70, P70 Pro, and P70 Art, followed by the Mate 70 series. Notably, not all P70 models will feature the new Kirin 9010.

As per insights from the Weibo account Smart Pikachu, the P70 series will boast a custom curved display that is easy on the eyes and power-efficient but lacks a 2K resolution, and the standard version of the P70 is tested with the Kirin 9000S. This may potentially impact the motivation for users who have already purchased the Mate 60 and might not find sufficient reasons to upgrade to the P70.

Wccftech suggests that the adoption of the 9000S in some models could be attributed to the limited supply of the Kirin 9010. The Kirin 9000S, produced by SMIC using a 7nm process, faces production challenges due to the use of older-generation DUV equipment, resulting in a time-consuming and costly manufacturing process with lower yields.

Despite this, there is a glimmer of hope for Huawei’s pricing competitiveness, as the production cost of the Kirin 9000S is expected to be lower than that of the Kirin 9010. This cost advantage could potentially contribute to Huawei’s goal of reaching an estimated shipment volume of 100 million smartphones in 2024, especially considering the company’s historical strength in offering competitive pricing for its base models.

(Image: Huawei)

In the intense battle of AI chips between NVIDIA and AMD this year, AMD’s MI300 has entered mass production and shipment 1H24, gaining positive adoption from clients. In response, NVIDIA is gearing up to launch upgraded AI chips. TSMC emerges as the big winner by securing orders from both NVIDIA and AMD.

Industry sources have revealed optimism as NVIDIA’s AI chip shipment momentum is expected to reach around 3 million units this year, representing multiple growth compared to 2023.

With the production ramp-up of the AMD MI300 series chips, the total number of AI high-performance computing chips from NVIDIA and AMD for TSMC in 2024 is anticipated to reach 3.5 million units. This boost in demand is expected to contribute to the utilization rate of TSMC’s advanced nodes.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, TSMC has not commented on rumors regarding customers and orders.

Industry sources have further noted that the global AI boom ignited in 2023, and 2024 continues to be a focal point for the industry. A notable shift from 2023 is that NVIDIA, which has traditionally dominated the field of high-performance computing (HPC) in AI, is now facing a challenge from AMD’s MI300 series products, which have begun shipping, intensifying competition for market share.

Reportedly, the AMD MI300A series products have commenced mass production and shipment this quarter. The central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) tile are manufactured using TSMC’s 5nm process, while the IO tile use TSMC’s 6nm process.

These chips are integrated through TSMC’s new System-on-Integrated-Chip (SoIC) and Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) advanced packaging technologies. Additionally, AMD’s MI300X, which does not integrate the CPU, is also shipping simultaneously.

Compared to NVIDIA’s GH200, which integrates CPU and GPU, and the H200, focusing solely on GPU computation, AMD’s new AI chip performance exceeds expectations. It offers a lower price and a high cost-performance advantage, attracting adoption by ODMs.

In response to strong competition from AMD, NVIDIA is upgrading its product line. Apart from its high-demand H200 and GH200, NVIDIA is expected to launch new products such as B100 and GB200, utilizing TSMC’s 3nm process, by the end of the year.

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• [News] Nvidia vs. AMD, the Expensive Duel as Two Major Buyers Opt for AMD’s Latest AI GPU
• [News] TSMC’s CoWoS Demand Surges from NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Monthly Capacity Up 120% in 2024

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

TSMC operates at full capacity, AMD aims for AI chips reportedly seeks CoWoS-like supply chain.

In 2023, NVIDIA led the global AI chip development, and in 2024, the global demand for AI chips is expected to continue to surge due to the expansion of end-user applications such as PCs and mobile phones.

Meanwhile, AMD has not stopped in AI chip development either, with the expected MI300 products poised to heat up the global AI business opportunities. However, the key to supply lies in advanced packaging, and AMD will seek outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) service providers to offer support similar to CoWoS.

According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity has long been fully loaded, and even if it expands production this year, it will mainly be reserved for NVIDIA. Market sources pointed out that TSMC will continue to increase CoWoS capacity to support AMD’s demand, but it takes six to nine months to establish a new production line. Therefore, it is expected that AMD will seek cooperation with other companies with CoWoS-like packaging capabilities. ASE, Amkor, Powertech, and KYEC are the first batch of potential partners.

TSMC has been outsourcing part of its CoWoS operations for some time, mainly targeting small-volume, high-performance chips. TSMC maintains in-house production of the CoW, while the back-end WoS is handed over to test and assembly houses to improve production efficiency and flexibility. This model will continue in the future 3D IC generation.

ASE and Amkor both received WoS orders last year. ASE has strengthened the development of advanced packaging technology and has a complete solution for the entire CoWoS process. ASE previously stated that it sees the strong potential of AI and expects related revenue to double in 2024.

According to reports citing market sources, the monthly production capacity of the ASE Group’s 2.5D packaging is about 2,000 to 2,500 pieces. Some experts believe that test and assembly houses will maintain the business model of TSMC or UMC providing the interposer. Therefore, in 2024, a significant increase in CoWoS production capacity is expected.

KYEC is responsible for testing Nvidia AI chips and is expected to benefit from AMD’s search for CoWoS-like capacity. Nvidia is currently KYEC’s second-largest customer.

KYEC’s testing of Nvidia A100 and H100 chips is mainly in the final test (FT), with a market share of up to 70%. KYEC provides comprehensive IC burn-in testing, has self-developed burn-in equipment, and has been in the industry for more than a decade, accumulating many patents and technologies.

AMD stated at the end of 2023 that AI chip revenue could reach US$2 billion in 2024, excluding other HPC chips. AMD pointed out that the annual compound growth rate of the AI chip market in the next four years will reach 70%, and it is estimated that it will reach US$400 billion in 2027.

(Image: AMD)

Major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) continue to see an increase in demand for AI servers over the next two years. The latest projections of TrendForce indicate a global shipment of approximately 1.18 million AI servers in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 34.5%. The trend is expected to persist into the following year, with an estimated annual growth of around 40.2%, constituting over 12% of the total server shipments.

NVIDIA, with its key products including AI-accelerating GPU and the AI server reference architecture HGX, currently holds the highest market share in the AI sector. However, it is crucial to monitor CSPs developing their own chips and, in the case of Chinese companies restricted by U.S. sanctions, expanding investments in self-developed ASICs and general-purpose AI chips.

According to TrendForce data, AI servers equipped with NVIDIA GPUs accounted for approximately 65.1% this year, projected to decrease to 63.5% next year. In contrast, servers featuring AMD and CSP self-developed chips are expected to increase to 8.2% and 25.4%, respectively, in the coming year.

Another critical application, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), is primarily supplied by major vendors Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with market shares of approximately 47.5%, 47.5%, and 5.0%, respectively, this year. As the price difference between HBM and DDR4/DDR5 is 5 to 8 times, this is expected to contribute to a staggering 172% year-on-year revenue growth in the HBM market in 2024.

Currently, the three major manufacturers are expected to complete HBM3e verification in the first quarter of 2024. However, the results of each manufacturer’s HBM3e verification will determine the final allocation of procurement weight for NVIDIA among HBM suppliers in 2024. As the verifications are still underway, the market share for HBM in 2024 remain to be observed.

Read more

• [News] Memory Titans Vie for Control in HBM Tech, Who Will Shape the Next-Gen?
• [Insights] NVIDIA Maintains Confidence Despite Export Restrictions, Continues Unveiling New Products

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

As the Japanese government injects substantial funds to revitalize its semiconductor industry, the dynamics of the Japanese semiconductor industry have been a global focus. TrendForce, during this year’s SEMICON Japan, organized its first overseas industry-focused information seminar, delving into the global semiconductor, optoelectronics, and electric vehicle industries, with a particular focus on the dynamics and strategies of the Japanese market and companies. The event attracted over a hundred participants from Japanese technology industry.

The seminar, opened by TrendForce CEO Kevin Lin, under the theme of “the era of challenges,” served as a commentary on the future development of the technology industry in the coming years. Lin pointed out that global technological industries, influenced by geopolitical factors, are experiencing a trend of supply chain restructuring. He also highlighted China’s expansion in the semiconductor, electric vehicle, and downstream supply chains, reshaping the global supply chain landscape—an aspect requiring global attention.

During the seminar, TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Ken Kuo, presented an analysis of the global memory and AI server market. He noted that after a year and a half of adjustments, prices in the DRAM and NAND markets started to rise across the board in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by robust growth in AI. This trend is expected to continue into the next year.

Beyond AI servers, the introduction of technologies such as Microsoft’s Copilot, as well as AI PCs and AI smartphones, is poised to be a growth driver next year. In terms of AI chip shipments, NVIDIA is projected to maintain its dominance, with an estimated 1.5 million units shipped this year and an anticipated 100% growth next year.

The semiconductor foundry market is expected to recover in 2024.

The recovery of the semiconductor market in 2024 was a major focus for participants. TrendForce’s analyst Joanne Chiao mentioned that as supply chain inventory pressures gradually ease, the semiconductor foundry industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2024, driven by TSMC’s advanced processes and inventory replenishment momentum, with a projected growth of 7%.

In light of geopolitics, , semiconductor foundry supply chains are undergoing restructuring. In 2023, Taiwan is expected to account for approximately 46% of global semiconductor foundry capacity, followed by China at 26%, South Korea at 12%, the United States at 6%, and Japan at 2%. With the drive from subsidy policies in China and the United States to increase local production capacity, by 2027, Taiwan and South Korea’s production capacity shares are expected to converge to 41% and 10%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Japan is actively implementing subsidy policies to support local company Rapidus and attract Taiwan’s TSMC and PSMC to establish facilities, aiming to secure a place in the semiconductor foundry market.

The introduction of Apple Watch with Micro LED is expected in 2026, with estimated display costs 2.5-3 times higher than OLED.

TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Eric Chiou, analyzed Apple’s progress in adopting new display technologies during the display technology session. He mentioned that the next-generation Apple Watch panel would use Micro LED as the display technology, with a size larger than the current Apple Watch Ultra at 2.12 inches.

The product will have two key suppliers: German LED giant ams OSRAM, which will exclusively supply Micro LED chips smaller than 10x10um, and South Korean panel manufacturer LG Display, responsible for the chip mass transfer engineering in addition to providing LTPO glass backplates.

Chiou pointed out that the adoption of small-sized chips inherently helps compress costs. Considering Apple’s strong bargaining power in the supply chain, he estimated that when the product is launched in 2026, the cost of the Micro LED display panel could be controlled below $120, equivalent to 2.5 to 3 times the current price of OLED panels—a reasonable range for a new technology.

Moreover, with Apple’s outstanding ability to integrate new technologies and specifications, there is an expectation of achieving million-unit-level shipments in the first year of launch, injecting abundant vitality into the demand for Micro LED chips and the overall industry’s development.

China’s EV expansion brings impact to the global automotive industry.

In 2023, China became the world’s primary exporter of automobiles, prompting the global automotive industry to recognize that competition with Chinese automakers will extend from the domestic market to the global market. TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen highlighted in her speech that the most significant threat to international automakers is China’s advantage in EV( including BEV, PHV, FCV).

She emphasized that due to China’s early development of EVs, it has established a complete supply chain, particularly in the proactive development of power battery production capacity and upstream materials. EVs account for over a quarter of China’s passenger car exports.

On the other hands, with a nearly 60% market share in the Southeast Asian market, Chinese automakers gradually threaten Japanese automakers’ long-term dominance in the Southeast Asian automotive market.

She believes that as Chinese automakers expand into the international market, Japanese automakers should not only accelerate the development of new energy vehicles but also leverage their long-accumulated brand value and well-established maintenance systems as core competitive advantages. Additionally, maintaining leadership positions in semiconductor and chemical materials is a strategy for sustained investment to consolidate their influence in the automotive industry.