In recent developments, Samsung Foundry, a subsidiary of Samsung Electronics, has disclosed that it has initiated discussions with major chip clients, gearing up to provide services utilizing 1.4nm and 2nm processes.

It’s been said that Samsung being ahead in the production of 3nm GAA (gate-all-around) process, yet not as favored by major clients as TSMC. In response to the comment, Ki-tae Jeong, the CTO of Samsung Foundry, had share his insights at Semiconductor Expo 2023 in South Korea.

According to the Chosun Ilboon’s report, Jeong pointed out that in the semiconductor foundry industry, it typically takes approximately 3 years for major clients to make their final purchasing decisions. Samsung is actively engaging with prominent clients, and results may become evident in the coming years. Also, the company is currently discussing future processes such as 2nm and 1.4nm with major clients.

How are advanced semiconductor processes progressing?

Compared to mature processes, advanced processes are better suited for applications that demand high performance and low power consumption. With emerging technologies like AI and high-performance computing driving the industry, the demand for advanced processes continues to rise. Leading semiconductor companies are committed to developing new technologies, with chip advanced processes evolving from 5nm to 4nm and now down to 3nm, while looking ahead to the possibility of reaching 2nm and 1.4nm.

Current progress from major players:

Samsung
Samsung has already commenced mass production of its second-generation 3nm chips and aims to introduce the 2nm process by the end of 2025, with the 1.4nm process expected by the end of 2027.

TSMC
TSMC is planning to start production for N3P in the latter half of 2024, with N3X and the 2nm process set to enter mass production in 2025. TSMC will introduce Gate-all-around FETs (GAAFET) transistors for the first time at the 2nm process node, offering a 15% speed increase at the same power consumption and up to a 30% reduction in power consumption at the same speed, all while increasing chip density by more than 15%.

Intel
Intel is diligently pursuing its “Four Years, Five Nodes” plan. Presently, Intel 7 and Intel 4 are in mass production, and the Intel 3 process is expected to enter the readiness for production stage in the latter half of this year. Subsequently, Intel 20A and 18A processes are planned to enter the readiness for production stage in the first and second halves of 2024, respectively.

Moreover, industry experts believe that in the near term, Intel will focus on the Intel 3 process as its flagship offering in the advanced process semiconductor foundry sector to compete with TSMC, Samsung, and other players.

In recent updates from Shanghai Industrial μTechnology Research Institute (SITRI), Dr. Xing Wei’s research team has achieved a groundbreaking milestone in 300mm SOI wafer manufacturing technology. They have successfully created China’s inaugural 300mm Radio Frequency Silicon-on-insulator (RF-SOI) wafer.

The team harnessed the resources of the China Key Laboratory for Integrated Circuit Materials’ 300mm SOI research platform, systematically resolving critical technical challenges required for 300mm RF-SOI wafers. This involved low-oxygen high-resistance crystal production, deposition of low-stress high-resistivity polycrystalline silicon films, and non-contact planarization.

This achievement not only marks the inception of China’s 300mm SOI manufacturing technology but is also anticipated to drive the entire RF-SOI chip design, manufacturing, and packaging industry chain within China. It will also ensure a stable supply of SOI wafers in the country.

SOI technology boasts a wide range of applications, encompassing RF-SOI for communication RF front-ends, high-power Power-SOI components, and Photonics-SOI technology for optical communications. SOI technology, which positions silicon wafers on insulating material, has emerged as a game-changing innovation with unique advantages, break limitations associated with traditional silicon materials and integrated circuits.

(Image: SITRI)

Reports indicate that the United States is poised to unveil an updated set of restrictions on chip exports to China this week. Beyond the previously reported tightening measures on AI chips and equipment exports, these new regulations are expected to restrict the supply to chip design companies. The aim is to enhance control over the sale of graphic chips and advanced chip manufacturing equipment for AI applications to Chinese enterprises, with the possibility of adding Chinese chip design companies to the list of restricted entities.

As reported from Reuters and Bloomberg, U.S. authorities will demand that overseas manufacturers obtain licenses to fulfill orders from these companies and subject Chinese firms attempting to circumvent restrictions by using third-party countries for shipping to additional inspections. While the new regulations are expected to be announced this week, the potential for delays should not be ruled out.

In October 2022, the United States declared export restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and chip manufacturing equipment bound for China, as a measure to prevent the development of cutting-edge technology that could potentially bolster military capabilities for geopolitical adversaries.

Following the implementation of these export bans, U.S. tech companies, such as Nvidia and Applied Materials, incurred significant losses in orders. For example, Nvidia was unable to sell its two most advanced AI chips to Chinese companies, leading to the introduction of a “downgraded” chip, the H800, designed specifically for the Chinese market to bypass existing regulations.

U.S. officials have revealed plans to introduce new guidelines for AI chips, including the restriction of certain advanced data center AI chips that currently do not fall under any limitations. They are considering the removal of “bandwidth parameters” to prevent the entry of AI chips perceived as too powerful into China.

However, they plan to introduce expanded guidelines for chip control, which may reduce communication speeds among AI chips. Slower communication could increase the complexity and cost of AI development, particularly when many chips need to be connected for training large AI models. Additionally, the U.S. will introduce “performance density parameters” to guard against potential future workarounds by companies.

Reports suggest that the United States is looking to prohibit the export of Nvidia’s H800 chip, a “downgraded” chip designed for the Chinese market to legally bypass existing regulations.

The Biden administration is also preparing for additional scrutiny of Chinese companies attempting to modify shipping and manufacturing locations in a bid to evade specific country restrictions. This rule will continue to limit sales of specific chips to Chinese companies through overseas subsidiaries and related entities, requiring authorization before exporting restricted technology to countries that could serve as intermediaries.

Furthermore, the progress in Huawei’s new smartphones has prompted the U.S. authorities to tighten control further, initiating investigations for actions against Huawei or SMIC that will be carried out independently of the new export control regulations.

In response to the anticipated expansion of U.S. export controls on Chinese companies, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “We have made our position clear on US restrictions of chip exports to China. The US needs to stop politicizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues and stop destabilizing global industrial and supply chains. We will closely follow the developments and firmly safeguard our rights and interests.”

(Image: Nvidia)

According to Taiwan’s TechNews, with the ongoing reduction in production by major memory manufacturers and the visible benefits of inventory clearance in the market, NAND Flash prices are beginning to rebound, and DRAM prices are expected to follow suit. This signals a ray of hope for memory manufacturers who have endured the longest-ever price downturn, finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

To reduce losses, NAND Flash suppliers have implemented multiple production cuts since 2023, aiming to lift prices and halt further declines. This strategy has started to yield results, with reports of wafer contract prices for NAND Flash rebounding in August and continuing to rise in September, putting NAND Flash ahead of DRAM in its recovery.

Samsung, a leading player, has continued its production cuts, mainly focusing on products with less than 128 layers. Their September output decreased by nearly 50%, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit and demonstrate the benefits of inventory adjustments. Market experts also predict that NAND Flash prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. TrendForce is optimistic about NAND Flash pricing for Q4, estimating an increase of around 3% to 8%, higher than the initial projection of 0% to 5%.

While DRAM price increases have lagged behind NAND Flash, the benefits of production cuts by major manufacturers and accelerated inventory clearance are expected to lead to a gradual price rise starting in the fourth quarter. Market expectations are that this upward trend will mark the beginning of the next growth cycle.

Industry experts point out that the rise in DRAM prices is not only due to factors like production cuts and inventory clearance but also linked to the artificial intelligence market. The demand for DDR5 in the data center market driven by AI applications has limited capacity supply, leading to an early price surge. Additionally, DDR3, which major manufacturers have gradually phased out but still has market demand due to limited supply, is experiencing a significant price increase.

As for the current mainstream DDR4, although manufacturers are working to clear substantial inventories in hopes of boosting prices, there is still unfavorable news in the market. Intel’s new Meteor Lake computing platform only supports DDR5 and not DDR4, which poses additional challenges for manufacturers with high DDR4 inventories.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Fueled by an AI-driven inventory stocking frenzy across the supply chain, TrendForce reveals that Q2 revenue for the top 10 global IC design powerhouses soared to US $38.1 billion, marking a 12.5% quarterly increase. In this rising tide, NVIDIA seized the crown, officially dethroning Qualcomm as the world’s premier IC design house, while the remainder of the leaderboard remained stable.

AI charges ahead, buoying IC design performance amid a seasonal stocking slump

NVIDIA is reaping the rewards of a global transformation. Bolstered by the global demand from CSPs, internet behemoths, and enterprises diving into generative AI and large language models, NVIDIA’s data center revenue skyrocketed by a whopping 105%. A deluge of shipments, including the likes of their advanced Hopper and Ampere architecture HGX systems and the high-performing InfinBand, played a pivotal role. Beyond that, both gaming and professional visualization sectors thrived under the allure of fresh product launches. Clocking a Q2 revenue of US$11.33 billion (a 68.3% surge), NVIDIA has vaulted over both Qualcomm and Broadcom to seize the IC design throne.

Qualcomm’s Q2 took a hit as the Android smartphone sector grappled with dwindling demand and Apple’s modem pre-purchases resulted in a subdued seasonal rhythm. Consequently, their revenue slid by 9.7%, rounding off at about US$7.17 billion. Broadcom, while benefiting from AI-ignited demand for high-end switches and routers, faced headwinds with revenue drops in server storage, broadband, and wireless. The result was a second-quarter revenue that essentially mirrored the previous quarter at around US$6.9 billion.

AMD’s Q2 performance plateaued at about $5.36 billion, weighed down by a slump in gaming GPU sales and its embedded segment operations. Conversely, MediaTek, after several quarters of inventory recalibration, witnessed a resurgence with components like TV SoCs and Wi-Fi stabilizing. The added impetus of urgent TV orders and escalating shipments for mobile phones, smart platforms, and power management ICs boosted MediaTek’s Q2 to a solid US$3.2 billion.

Marvell, though buoyed by AI deployments in data centers, faced headwinds with a decline in On-Premise Servers (enterprise private clouds). End-user demand remained frail, and with sectors like data centers, telecom infrastructure, and enterprise networking facing revenue drops, Marvell’s Q2 took a 1.4% hit, culminating at roughly $1.33 billion.

Taiwan’s IC design stalwart Novatek flourished as customers replenished TV-related inventories and ushered in novel products such as OLED DDI. Realtek, drawing strength from supply chain restocking of PC/NB-centric ICs, reported quarterly growths of 24.7% and 32.6%, respectively. Yet, without substantial signs of a holistic revival in end-sales and inventory restocking, growth in H2 seems set to face challenges.

Will Semiconductor secured the ninth spot with a Q2 revenue of $528 million, registering a modest decline of about 1.9%. Hot on its heels is the US-based power IC maestro, MPS, with its Q2 revenue tallying up to $441 million—a slip of approximately 2.2%.

Peering into Q3, while inventory levels across companies paint a rosier picture than H1, a pervasive end-user demand slump urges caution. However, a silver lining emerges with CSPs, internet titans, and private firms flocking to generative AI and large language models. As these high-value AI offerings gain traction, TrendForce projects that the top ten global IC design giants will continue their double-digit ascent in Q3, potentially reaching record-breaking figures.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com