Amid concerns on the impact of the U.S. presidential election as well as the ongoing chip war between the world’s two superpowers, China’s chipmaking equipment market is expected to contract next year, according to a report by Nikkei. Citing remarks from SEMI, in 2025, the semiconductor equipment market in China is anticipated to drop below USD 40 billion and back to the level of 2023, after peaking in 2024.

According to SEMI, the decline can be attributed to the cooling demand after a period of accelerated purchasing spurred by U.S.-China tensions, the Nikkei report mentions. Spending on semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is projected to exceed USD 40 billion this year for the first time, according to SEMI.

On the other hand, according to an executive of the Chinese branch of a global chip equipment supplier cited by the report, in 2025, the semiconductor equipment market in China is anticipated to decrease by 5-10% from the previous year, which is resulted from the decline of utilization rates for equipment at China’s semiconductor factories as well as the previous rush in purchases.

The projection aligns with Dutch chip equipment giant ASML’s financial forecast released earlier in October. It now forecasts 2025 net sales between 30 billion and 35 billion euros (USD 32.7 billion to USD 38.1 billion), in the lower end of its previous guidance range, according to a report by CNBC.

Though during the July-September quarter, China contribute to around 50% of ASML’s sales, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen noted that the company expects its China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business,” indicating that China would come in at around 20% of its total revenue for next year, according to the CNBC report.

It is also worth noting that according to SEMI, the market contraction in China extends beyond next year. According to the Nikkei report, SEMI projects that China’s spending on chipmaking equipment will experience an average annual decline of 4% in compound growth from 2023 to 2027.

On the other hand, chipmaking equipment spending remains robust in regions other in China. Citing SEMI’s projection, Nikkei notes that spending in the Americas is projected to grow 22% annually between 2023 and 2027, with Europe and the Middle East increasing by 19%, and Japan by 18%.

Despite declining growth, China will remain the largest market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with estimated spending of USD 144.4 billion from 2024 to 2027, according to SEMI. This exceeds investments in South Korea (USD 108 billion), Taiwan (USD 103.2 billion), the Americas (USD 77.5 billion), and Japan (USD 45.1 billion).

To elaborate a bit, Nikkei suggests that China’s heightened outlay aligns with its goal of achieving greater self-sufficiency in chip production, as its self-sufficiency rate was only 23% in 2023.

Naura Technology Group, a state-owned company, is China’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, followed by Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC), according to Nikkei.

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(Photo credit: Naura Technology)

Recently, Chinese semiconductor companies Natural Semicon and Zensemi have recently announced advancements in their 12-inch wafer production lines, while Chinese equipment manufacturers Naura, Hwatsing, and JSG have reported promising developments in 12-inch equipment technology.

Natural Semicon’s 12-inch Production Line in Zhuhai Achieves Milestone

On November 2, Zhuhai-based Natural Semicon successfully connected its 12-inch wafer-level TSV (Through-Silicon Via) integration production line. On the same day, Natural Semicon unveiled its “Ninefold” technology platform, the first Chinese-named wafer-level 3D integration technology system.

Upon completion of Phase I, the new production line will have an annual capacity of 240,000 TSV-integrated units to support applications in AI, high-performance computing, and more. The project is expected to begin full-scale production on December 30, 2024. Moving forward, Phase II is set to boost capacity to 600,000 units annually between 2028 and 2032 as part of a strategic growth phase.

Zensemi Completes 12-inch Wafer Project Connection

Recently, Zensemi’s COO reported in an interview with CNR that the Zensemi project took just 18 months from groundbreaking to line connection. To date, Zensemi has produced 1,000 wafers, which are now undergoing a 1,000-hour reliability test. The company plans to commence mass production soon.

At a June 28 launch event, Zensemi inaugurated its 12-inch wafer production line for intelligent sensor chips, which is the first of its kind in China and second worldwide. The chips produced will target sectors such as IoT, industrial control, and automotive electronics. Starting next year, the line is expected to supply 20,000 chips monthly from Guangzhou’s Zengcheng district.

China’s Top Equipment Manufacturers Announce 12-inch Equipment R&D Progress

Chinese equipment manufacturers Naura, Hwatsing, and JSG have shared updates on their 12-inch equipment developments.

Naura recently delivered its domestically developed 12-inch plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) system to a client. The Cygnus series PECVD system is designed to produce high-quality films for applications such as passivation, isolation, anti-reflective coatings, and etching stop layers in logic, memory, and advanced packaging. It can handle large, high-warp wafers and produce films like silicon oxide, silicon nitride, and other compounds.

On October 31, Hwatsing revealed in its investor relations report that its flagship CMP and thinning equipment saw broader applications and greater market acceptance in the first three quarters of 2024. Its new Universal H300 CMP system is now in limited production, receiving orders from key customers, while its 12-inch high-precision wafer thinning machine, Versatile-GP300, completed its initial customer validation and met batch production requirements.

On October 28, JSG disclosed that it has expanded R&D in semiconductor equipment for large silicon wafers, chips, and packaging, achieving breakthroughs in domestic production of 8- to 12-inch wafer equipment. These products have reached mass production and are well received by downstream customers, leading in market share within China’s domestically produced crystal growth equipment sector.

(Photo credit: Zensemi )

Ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, U.S. semiconductor equipment giants Applied Materials and Lam Research are already working out to exclude Chinese firms from supply chains, driven by Washington’s directives to limit China’s role in sensitive leading-edge technologies, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

According to the report, major chip toolmakers, including Applied Materials and Lam Research, are notifying suppliers that they must source alternatives for certain Chinese components or risk their vendor status. Suppliers have also been informed that they must not have Chinese investors or shareholders, according to sources cited by the report.

The move would potentially drive up costs, as finding non-Chinese alternatives at comparable prices will be challenging, noted industry executives interviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

China is now reportedly the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their sales.

When asked about whether the act of finding alternatives to Chinese-made components has been initiated, Lam Research stated it complies with U.S. export controls within the chip-manufacturing supply chain, while Applied Materials indicated it seeks alternative component sources to ensure consistent availability, according to the report.

It is worth noting that as the U.S.-China Chip War escalates, both presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Devi Harris, promise a firmer stance on trade with China, and the semiconductor industry is particularly targeted due to its national security significance recently.

Earlier in September, the Biden administration has introduced new export controls targeting critical technologies, including quantum computing, advanced chip making tools, specific components and software tied to metals and alloys, and high-bandwidth chips essential for AI applications, according to a previous report by CNBC.

While these restrictions apply globally, concerns have been raised on major semiconductor equipment companies, such as Dutch giant ASML and U.S. heavyweights Applied Materials and Lam Research.

The Wall Street Journal report also mentions that last year, the Commerce Department already introduced regulations requiring U.S. toolmakers to secure licenses before sharing technical details with Chinese suppliers. They received a temporary license to maintain current suppliers, set to expire at the end of 2025. This summer, the department clarified that suppliers outside China must also comply if their parent company is based in China.

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(Photo credit: Applied Materials)

Following recent downward revisions in annual financial targets by semiconductor lithography equipment manufacturers ASML and Canon, Nikon has also announced a cut to its forecast.

According to a press release from Nikon, the company expects its 2024 performance to fall short of initial plans due to delays in the recovery of market conditions within its Precision Equipment Business and Components Business, resulting in lower-than-expected demand and postponed sales of certain products.

Nikon has also revised its consolidated financial forecast for the year ending March 31, 2025, citing a delayed recovery in semiconductor-related markets as the reason for adjusting its sales plans in the lithography system sector. However, sales in the Imaging Products Business are anticipated to align with projections.

Notably, IC Smart reported that ASML revealed its Q3 financial results on October 15, reporting sales and gross margins in line with expectations. However, new orders plummeted by 53% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of half the market’s expectations. ASML has also lowered its 2025 sales target from a previously estimated range of €30 to €40 billion down to €30 to €35 billion, attributing the slowdown to a lagging recovery in most markets, with certain fabs delaying their demand for lithography systems, particularly EUV systems, despite strong demand in the AI sector.

The same IC Smart report noted that on October 24, Canon announced record high revenues for Q3 2024 (July to September) but also lowered its full-year performance expectations. Revenue was revised down from an initial estimate of ¥4.6 trillion to ¥4.54 trillion, while operating profit was adjusted from ¥465 billion to ¥455.5 billion. The net income target was cut from ¥335 billion to ¥325 billion, with Canon attributing this to an increase in the yen’s exchange rate. Additionally, the company has reduced its sales target for semiconductor lithography machines from 244 units to 239 units for the current fiscal year.

(Photo credit: ASML)

Driven by booming demand for AI chips, TSMC’s advanced CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) packaging faces a significant supply shortage. In response, TSMC is expanding its production capacity and is considering price increases to maintain supply chain stability.

According to a recent report from Morgan Stanley cited by Commercial Times, TSMC has received approval from NVIDIA to raise prices next year, with CoWoS packaging expected to increase by 10% to 20%, depending on capacity expansion.

At TSMC’s Q3 earnings call, Chairman C.C. Wei highlighted that customer demand for CoWoS far outstrips supply. Despite TSMC’s plan to more than double CoWoS capacity in 2024 compared to 2023, supply constraints persist.

To meet demand, TSMC is collaborating closely with packaging and testing firms to expand CoWoS capacity. Industry sources quoted by CNA reveal that ASE Group and SPIL are working with TSMC on the back-end CoWoS-S oS (on-Substrate) process. By 2025, ASE may handle 40-50% of TSMC’s outsourced CoWoS-S oS packaging.

ASE announced investments in advanced packaging, covering CoWoS front-end (Chip on Wafer) and oS processes, along with advanced testing.

SPIL, a subsidiary of ASE, recently invested NT$419 million in land at Central Taiwan Science Park’s Erlin Park, boosting CoWoS capacity. Additionally, SPIL has allocated NT$3.702 billion to acquire property from Ming Hwei Energy in Douliu, Yunlin, for further expansion.

ASE also announced in early October that its new Kaohsiung K28 facility, slated for completion in 2026, will expand CoWoS capacity.

In early October, TSMC announced a partnership with Amkor in Arizona to expand InFO and CoWoS packaging capabilities. Industry sources cited by CNA suggest that Apple, a user of TSMC’s U.S.-based 4nm process for application processors, may leverage Amkor’s CoWoS capacity. Other U.S.-based AI clients utilizing TSMC’s advanced nodes for ASICs and GPUs are also expected to consider Amkor’s CoWoS packaging in the future.

(Photo credit: TSMC)