According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, sellers, in particular Samsung, have increased the chip supply, therefore pushing DRAM prices downward, while DDR4 products suffer from higher inventory. Regarding NAND Flash prices, the retail market is less willing in replenish orders, together with how wafer prices have been surging from the bottom, the depletion of spot prices could carry on. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

The spot market has yet to show a demand turnaround; and sellers, in particular Samsung, have increased the chip supply, thereby pushing prices back down again. Looking at different types of DRAM products, module houses and channels have relatively high inventory levels for DDR4 products. Hence, the downward pressure on spot prices of DDR4 products is greater compared with spot prices of DDR5 products. Overall, even though contract prices have again registered significant increases in 2Q24, this rally has no positive effect on spot prices. Instead, spot transactions continue to show declining quantity, and the downward price pressure has become more pronounced. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has dropped by 1.19% from US$1.940 last week to US$1.917 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The Chinese government’s cracking down on smuggling of memory products, as well as the persistently sluggish demand from the retail market, have prompted module houses to amplify their sales intensity to actively pursue transactions, which led to a loosening in prices. Without replenishment of orders within the retail market, together with how wafer prices have surged from rock bottom to nearly 80% by now, the depletion of spot prices could carry on in the near future. Spot price for 512Gb TLC wafers has dropped by 2.61% this week, arriving at US$3.579.

As AI-related semiconductors has been driving the demand of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the NAND flash market now also feels the vibe. According to industry sources cited by Business Korea, the NAND Flash market competition is intensifying, while memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix are ramping up their efforts to improve the performance and capacity of NAND products.

In April, Samsung confirmed that it has begun mass production for its one-terabit (Tb) triple-level cell (TLC) 9th-generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), boasted to improve the bit density by about 50% compared to the 8th-generation V-NAND, with the number of layers reaching 290, according an earlier report by The Korea Economic Daily.

Based on the report on May 20 by Business Korea, Samsung intends to dominate the AI SSD market with its 9th Generation V-NAND, targeting the development and sampling of ultra-high capacity 64 terabyte (TB) SSDs in the second quarter.

In mid-May, Samsung even revealed the target to release advanced NAND Flash with over 1000 layers by 2030. According to an earlier report by Wccftech, the South Korean memory giant plans to apply new ferroelectric materials on the manufacturing of NAND.

On the other hand, the current HBM3 supply for NVIDIA’s H100 solution is primarily met by SK Hynix, leading to a supply shortfall in meeting burgeoning AI market demands. After establishing its leadership in HBM, it is reported that SK Hynix now aims to dominate the AI memory market in NAND as well, according to Business Korea.

It is worth noting that SK Hynix recently achieved a breakthrough with the development of “Zoned UFS 4.0” (ZUFS 4.0), an on-device AI mobile NAND solution tailored for AI-capable smartphones, which is scheduled to start mass production in the third quarter, according to TheElec.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Kioxia, one of the world’s major NAND manufacturer, anticipates a strong market outlook, emphasizing a full recovery this season in key NAND applications such as PCs and smartphones.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, coupled with an expected surge in demand for new laptops and smartphones driven by AI, NAND chip prices, which increased by 20% last season, are likely to continue rising this season, marking the fourth consecutive price hike. The industry’s future appears quite promising.

Benefiting from the recovering NAND market, Kioxia reported its first revenue growth in seven quarters and profitability for the first time in six quarters. During an investor conference, Kioxia noted that NAND chip prices in US dollar rose by approximately 20% last season, continuing an upward trend for three consecutive quarters, with the company’s quarterly shipment volume increasing by about 5% to 9%.

Kioxia emphasized that this season sees a recovery trend in key NAND end applications such as PCs and smartphones. Additionally, a new wave of laptop and smartphone upgrades driven by AI is expected, along with data centers requiring higher-capacity solid-state drives (SSDs) to support AI applications. All these factors positively impact the NAND industry.

Kioxia is reportedly optimistic that the proliferation of AI and the increase in memory capacity will continue to drive long-term growth in the NAND market. Due to disciplined production output by NAND chip manufacturers, the price increase trend is expected to continue this season, making the industry’s future prospects quite optimistic.

Taiwanese NAND manufacturer ADATA believes that although upstream NAND suppliers are gradually returning to profitability and steadily increasing capacity utilization rates, their approach to pricing and capacity planning remains rational. Coupled with a noticeable recovery in demand for enterprise and data center SSDs, ADATA is reportedly optimistic that NAND chip prices will continue to rise in a stable manner, per the same report from Economic Daily News.

As per a research from TrendForce on March 6, in 4Q23, Samsung still firmly held the top position in the NAND Flash market, with its market share increasing from 31.4% in the previous quarter to 36.6%; SK Group, with its market share increasing from 20.2% in the previous quarter to 21.6%, stood in the second place quarterly revenue.

Following them were Western Digital, whose market share decreased from 16.9% in the previous quarter to 14.5%, Kioxia, whose market share decreased from 14.5% in the previous quarter to 12.6%, and Micron, whose market share decreased from 12.5% in the previous quarter to 9.9%.

Read more

• [News] Memory Giants Reportedly Increasing Prices, But Is the Market Outlook Truly Positive?
• [News] NAND Flash Market Landscape to Change?

(Photo credit: Kioxia)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, due to relatively high level of inventories, the uptrend of DRAM spot prices is not as sharp compared with that of contract prices. Meanwhile, regarding NAND Flash prices, the spot market is not seen with much price inquiries either as the market confidence remains weak. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:
The uptrend of spot prices is not as sharp compared with that of contract prices. Currently, China’s May Day holiday has just ended, so the overall transaction volume remains low in the spot market. Furthermore, module houses have already accumulated too much inventory, so their focus is now on selling off their existing stocks. Overall, spot prices lack upward momentum in the recent period. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.31% from US$1.949 last week to US$1.943 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:
The spot market is not seen with much price inquiries and transaction due to the certain extent of inventory being held by channels, distributors, and clients, as well as their conservative outlook on the market for the next two quarters. A number of buyers are still holding onto their low-priced inventory established from 3Q23, and are waiting patiently for market response in 3Q24 with lingering profitability in average cost. Spot price for 512Gb TLC wafers has dropped by 0.89% this week, arriving at US$3.675.

At its 2022 Tech Day, Samsung revealed the target to release advanced NAND chips with over 1000 layers by 2030. According to Wccftech, the South Korean memory giant now seems to get closer to the ambitious goal, as it plans to apply new ferroelectric” materials on the manufacturing of NAND.

At the latest VLSI Technology Symposium held in Honolulu, a doctoral student from the Electrical Engineering Department at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) shared how “hafnia ferroelectrics” may serve as a key enabler for low voltage & QLC 3D VNAND beyond 1K layer experimental demonstration and modeling, of which the interaction between charge trapping in the metal band and the ferroelectric switching effect could maximize the ‘positive feedback’ of dual effects, enable low operating voltage, a wide range of storage window, and negligible disturbance at a bias voltage of 9 V.

Though Samsung is not directly involved in the R&D process, according to Wccftech, the researchers are said to be directly linked to the company.

The news follows Samsung’s official announcement in April, confirming that it has begun mass production for its one-terabit (Tb) triple-level cell (TLC) 9th-generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), boasted to improve the bit density by about 50% compared to the 8th-generation V-NAND, with the number of layers reaching 290, according a report by The Korea Economic Daily.

Industry sources cited by the report also revealed that Samsung’s future tenth-generation V-NAND is expected to reach 430 layers, which is scheduled to be released next year. Now the NAND ceiling may be able to hit 1000 layers, if the new ferroelectric materials work out fine.

Before Samsung, major storage giants such as Micron and SK Hynix had already surpassed the 200-layer milestone. Micron reached 232 layers with a storage density of 19.5Gb per square millimeter, while SK Hynix achieved 238 layers with a storage density of 14.4Gb per square millimeter. In early May, South Korea’s media outlet TheElec also revealed that SK Hynix has been exploring the potential of manufacturing 3D NAND at ultra-low temperatures, which may enable the company to produce its new-generation product with over 400 layers, with the help of Tokyo Electron (TEL).

(Photo credit: Samsung)