Following the Singles’ Day Sale in China, demands are relatively cooled down. While for DRAM spot prices, market experiences fluctuations due to subdued demand and increased supply of used chips. In contrast, NAND spot price remains relatively strong under the ongoing reduction in supply.

DRAM Spot Market

Following the Singles’ Day promotional events in China, demand has cooled down compared with the previous few weeks. Looking at DRAM spot prices, prices for chips from suppliers have remained steady, but there has been an influx of used chips stripped from decommissioned modules. Spot prices of used DDR4 chips have now fallen to US$1.05, significantly lower than the spot price of around US$1.75 for new chips from suppliers. Spot prices of DDR5 chips, on the other hand, have remained relatively stable. However, Kingston has not raised module prices, making it difficult to sustain the upward momentum. The average spot price of mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 1.54% from US$1.683 last week to US$1.709 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Demand from the spot market has become even more enervated after China’s Double 11 shopping festival when compared to that of several weeks ago. In terms of spot prices, the mainstream 512Gb wafer is supported by suppliers’ ongoing diminishment of wafer provision, and continues to march towards US$2.7-US$2.9 at a relatively robust tendency in comparison with DRAM spots, despite poor demand. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 11.54% this week, arriving at US$2.862.

In recent years, the dynamics of the memory market have undergone significant changes, with South Korean memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix facing intense competition from Chinese firms. They are experiencing heightened competitive pressures, and the technological gap is steadily narrowing.

As per reports from South Korean media outlet Business Korea, insiders in the market have disclosed that with China increasing its support for the memory industry, after several years of development, the technological gap in NAND Flash with leading global enterprises has now narrowed to approximately two years. However, in the case of DRAM, the original technological gap of about five years is still maintained.

The report indicates that the primary reason for the shortened gap is that the threshold for NAND Flash technology is relatively lower, allowing for a faster catch-up speed, and this acceleration is continuously progressing, thereby further reducing the technological disparity.

China’s largest memory semiconductor company, YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co.), officially unveiled its fourth-generation 3D TLC NAND Flash memory, named X3-9070, based on the Xtacking 3.0 architecture, at the 2022 Flash Memory Summit (FMS).

YMTC has also taken the lead over Samsung and SK Hynix by achieving production of NAND Flash memory with a higher number of layers.

It is understood that in the year 2022 alone, investments from the Chinese government and state-owned investment funds amounted to approximately CNY 50 billion. The continuous and substantial funding is aimed at supporting development efforts, encompassing both technological catch-up and faster market penetration.

The report emphasizes that as semiconductor circuit miniaturization approaches its limits, China may seize another opportunity to narrow the technological gap, particularly in advanced packaging techniques.

China, being the world’s second-largest packaging technology market, boasts a more comprehensive ecosystem. Companies like JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics Co., and HT-Tech have all secured positions in the top ten semiconductor packaging enterprises globally, while no Korean companies made the list.

TrendForce pointed out that there is indeed a technological difference of about two years between South Korean memory giants and Chinese firms. YMTC has the research and development capabilities but is primarily hindered by the lack of key equipment for mass production. The subsequent developments depend on whether China can acquire crucial semiconductor equipment. If successful, YMTC may have the opportunity to transition to higher levels, such as 300 layers, and proceed to mass production.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

As the memory market faces oversupply and falling prices due to declining demand in 2023, there’s a glimmer of hope when looking into their Q4 guidance. Memory prices are gradually rising, indicating a potential escape from the market’s low point. The most recent financial reports from the world’s top five companies substantiate this positive outlook.

1. Mixed Results in the Financial Reports of Top 5 Giants

From the recent financial reports of Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, and Western Digital reveal a slowdown in the rate of revenue loss despite some reporting losses. Some companies express optimism, noting a gradual recovery in certain downstream demand.

Samsung: Anticipating Q4 Demand Recovery

Samsung Electronics’ Q3 financial report shows a revenue of 6.74 trillion Korean won, a YoY decrease, but with a net profit exceeding expectations at 5.5 trillion won.

During their earnings call on October 31, Samsung highlighted the uncertainty in the recovery of the storage chip market. However, they remain optimistic about increased demand in Q4, driven by year-end promotions, new product releases from major clients, and growing demand for generative AI.

SK Hynix: Positive Signs in Market Conditions

SK Hynix’s report for the Q3 2023 fiscal year indicates improving market conditions, particularly due to increased demand for high-performance memory, especially in AI-related products. DRAM and NAND flash memory sales have grown, with a significant 20%  QoQ increase in DRAM shipments. Rise of average prices also impacts the results. In the second half of the year, customers with reduced inventory are progressively increasing their procurement demands, leading to stable developments in product prices.

Micron’s performance for the Q4 2023 fiscal year shows revenue of $4.01 billion, a 40% year-on-year decrease but better than market expectations. The DRAM business accounts for 69% of revenue, with $2.8 billion in revenue, an increase in bit shipments but a decrease in average selling price. NAND Flash revenue is $1.2 billion, with an increase in bit shipments but a decrease in ASP.

Micron expects Q1 revenue for the 2024 fiscal year to reach $4.2~4.6 billion, anticipating a recovery in the storage market in 2024 and further improvement in 2025.

Kioxia: Rebound in NAND Prices

Kioxia released its financial report for July to September 2023, with revenue of 241.4 billion yen, a 3.9% decrease QoQ and a 38.3% YoY decrease. Due to a decline in demand for smartphone and PC memory chips, the operating loss was 100.8 billion yen in the Q2. However, benefiting from the improvement in storage supply-demand balance, optimized storage portfolio, and the performance of the yen exchange rate, the operating loss has improved.

Although NAND shipments have decreased, the situation has improved due to the rebound in NAND prices. NAND bit shipments decreased by approximately 13%, and NAND ASP increased by about 8%. Looking ahead to 2024, Kioxia expects NAND prices to continue to rise with the original equipment company’s production reduction strategy and customer inventory normalization. Confidence in the NAND market’s recovery is expected, especially in data centers and enterprise SSD demand, after the first half of 2024.

Western Digital: Cloud Market Continues to Grow

Western Digital announced Q1 revenue for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling $2.75 billion, a 3% increase QoQ and a 26% YoY decrease. In the end market, the decline in flash memory prices was offset by the growth in flash memory shipments, driving some business growth on a QoQ basis.

CEO David Goeckeler stated that Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with profit margins for flash memory and HDD business continuously improving. He pointed out that the consumer and end-user markets performed well, and the cloud market is expected to continue growing. With market improvement, an improved cost structure enables the company to increase profitability.

2. Changing Supply and Demand Dynamics: Some Applications Boosting

Storage companies are adapting to the market by reducing capital expenditures and adjusting inventory, leading to a more normalized market inventory. Simultaneously, increased demand in AI servers, high-performance computing, and automotive intelligence instills confidence in the market.

In the second half of the year, there are clear signs of improvement in the supply and demand dynamics of storage chips. Demand for smartphones, laptops, and new product releases is driving positive trends. Some companies are witnessing strengthened customer demand, even accepting price increases.

In the server sector, AI servers are boosting demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and DDR5 adoption is accelerating. In the automotive storage sector, electric vehicles, intelligence, and networking are propelling in-car storage demand, indicating promising developments in the automotive storage market. Other applications such as big data, cloud computing, and wearable devices related to high-speed storage, reliability, and data security also present growth potential, benefiting storage companies.

3. Comprehensive Rise in Storage Chips: Is a Turning Point Near?

According to TrendForce, the global NAND Flash market has experienced a comprehensive price increase in the Q4, driven by suppliers’ active production reduction strategies in 2023. Data from TrendForce indicates a general rise in Q4 NAND Flash contract prices, with an increase of about 8-13%.

TrendForce estimates a negative annual growth rate of -2.8% for supply in 2023, the first in several years. This has pushed the overall sufficiency ratio to -3.7%, forming the basis for stabilizing NAND Flash prices in the second half. However, the sustainability of the current upward trend remains unclear due to the lack of substantial terminal demand.

If demand recovers as expected in the second half of 2024, especially with the momentum of AI-related orders for server SSDs and a cautious approach by suppliers in resuming capacity utilization, the overall sufficiency ratio is expected to be controlled at -9.4%, accelerating the balance between supply and demand, and NAND Flash prices may show an upward trend throughout the year.

For DRAM, TrendForce predicts a seasonal increase of about 3-8% in DRAM contract prices in the Q4. The continuation of this upward trend depends on whether suppliers maintain their production reduction strategy and the actual recovery of demand, particularly in the general server.

During the MTS 2024 Storage Industry Trends Seminar, TrendForce highlighted three concerns for the memory market in 2024:

(1) Despite the reduction in inventory levels, it is essential to observe whether this reduction can be sustained and effectively transferred to buyers.

(2) Anticipating a rise in production capacity, an early recovery in operational rates due to market improvements may lead to another imbalance in supply and demand.

(3) Whether the demand from various end-users will align with the expected recovery or not, particularly the sustainability of orders related to AI.
(Image: Samsung)

According to Economic Daily News’ report, the DDR3 market is experiencing a surge in prices, with an almost 10% short-term increase. Contract prices for this quarter are expected to rise by 10% to 15%, with a continued optimistic outlook for the first quarter of next year.

Market analysts point out that global leaders like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron currently dominate standard DRAM and NAND Flash. Taiwan-based companies are unable to compete with them in chip production, except for module companies which have the potential to capitalize on the rebound of the DRAM and NAND market due to their advantage of low-cost inventory.

On the other hand, DDR3 production remains primarily under Taiwan’s purview, and the price surge is significant, providing substantial assistance to Taiwanese memory industry players.

Industry sources indicate that the main impetus behind the current memory market upswing stems from the continual reduction in production by major international manufacturers. With tightening capacities, they are strictly controlling shipments, displaying their determination to support the price increases.

Besides, companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are actively venturing into AI applications, shifting their main capacity to produce high-bandwidth memory, DDR5, and other advanced areas. This shift has created room in the DDR3 market. Recent replenishment of inventories on the client end, along with a surge in orders for consumer electronics, has been witnessed.

TrendForce indicated that DDR3 prices have been steadily rising since September. The cumulative increase for DDR3 4Gb has reached nearly 10%, while DDR3 2Gb has shown a cumulative rise of 14%; regarding contract prices, TrendForce expects a robust increase of 10% to 15% for this quarter, with a continued strength forecasted for the first quarter of next year, likely to rise another 5% to 10%.

DDR3-related companies are optimistic about market developments. Etron believes that with inventory digestion coming to an end, “the cyclical bottom is over,” and they are gradually heading towards the dawn of recovery. They hold a positive outlook for significant growth in the global DRAM market next year.

ESMT, on the other hand, continues to advance the progress of their in-house products. They are continuously developing new products in DRAM, Flash, and MCP, expanding into different markets. This includes accelerating the development of 19-nanometer DRAM, achieving mass production of 28-nanometer NAND Flash, and researching niche memory products for automotive applications.

Winbond’s General Manager, Pei-Ming Chen, points out that their operations for this quarter will be better than the third quarter and they have a positive view of the DRAM market for next year.

Read more

• Q4 Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash Contract Prices Forecast to Rise, Upward Trend May Continue into 1Q24, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Unsplash)

After several quarters of inventory depletion, the NAND market is gradually heating up, and there are concerns of a tighten supply in 2024. During an Investor Meeting held on the 7th, Phison Electronics Corporation, a supplier of NAND flash memory controllers and modules, announced that due to capacity limitations in NAND flash production, NAND supply has become constrained. When entering 4Q23, the company is already facing tighten supply for some of its products. Consequently, Phison plans to prepay its NAND flash suppliers to ensure a stable supply, as reported by CTEE.

Phison noted that its suppliers have been reducing production since the 4Q22, and it has accelerated since the 2Q23. Following three to four quarters of inventory depletion, the NAND market is gradually recovering, leading to a stabilization in NAND prices.

In fact, the strategy of module manufacturers is influenced by NAND flash suppliers. For instance, Samsung has been actively raising NAND prices. After the company initially raised NAND prices by 10% to 20% this quarter, it has decided to continue increasing prices by quarter in 2024. This strategic decision reflects Samsung’s determination to stabilize NAND prices with the aim of reversing the market’s direction in the first half of the upcoming year.

Notably, NAND chips and DRAM account for roughly half of Samsung’s memory chip sales. Simultaneously, while raising prices, Samsung continues to decrease production to control market supply, which, in turn, improves market stability and profitability.

TrendForce previously indicated that with NAND wafer prices leading the increase since August and suppliers adopting a firmer stance in negotiations, Q4 enterprise SSD contract prices are projected to rise by approximately 5~10%. On the client SSD front, as suppliers gain more bargaining power, both high-end and low-end products are expected to increase concurrently, with 4Q23 PC client SSD contract prices projected to rise by 8~13%.

TrendForce’s NAND Flash price analysis released today also highlighted that due to continuous shortages in recent wafer supply, the market has been experiencing rising prices under a shrinking volume. While spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies have been oscillating narrowly in quotations on account of the persistently constrained level of visibility in demand.
(Image: Samsung)

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