According to a report from Taiwan’s TechNews, the NAND Flash industry is gradually recovering in pricing as suppliers continue to reduce production. However, achieving a healthy market balance in terms of supply, demand, and pricing is expected to require more time and effort.

Regarding the memory market situation, TrendForce indicates that the reduction strategies for DRAM and NAND Flash by memory manufacturers are expected to continue into 2024. This is especially evident for the heavily loss-making NAND Flash segment. Despite TrendForce’s projection that visibility into consumer electronics market demand for the first half of 2024 remains uncertain, and with general server capital expenditures still weakened by AI server displacement, the memory market is anticipated to exhibit relatively weak demand.

Yet, TrendForce states, due to the low base in 2023 and certain memory product prices having reached comparatively low levels, DRAM and NAND Flash are forecasted to experience year-over-year growth rates of 13% and 16%, respectively.

On the other hand, even with demand picking up, effectively destocking and restoring supply-demand equilibrium in 2024 hinges on suppliers exercising restraint over production capacity. Once suppliers manage their production capacity appropriately, there’s a possibility for a rebound in the average memory prices.

Nomura Securities notes in their report that since late August 2023, NAND Flash prices have seen double-digit increases. This has largely resulted from the escalating scale of NAND Flash production cuts and the downstream inventory for smartphones and related components being low. Additionally, different brands have been launching new products over the past few months.

Citigroup’s recent update on global memory average selling price outlook reveals significant reductions in production volumes, including major memory manufacturers like Samsung. Memory manufacturers are expected to prevent further decline in memory average prices through substantial production cuts, as further decline could threaten the cash cost level of NAND Flash. Therefore, Samsung’s meaningful reduction in memory product production is expected to contribute to stabilizing the average memory selling price in 2023 and laying the groundwork for a stable recovery in the average memory market selling price throughout 2024.

DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of DRAM products have risen slightly lately due to Samsung’s earlier attempt to raise prices of 3D NAND Flash wafers as well as the temporary halt in the flow of rebelled used chips into the market. DDR4 products have experienced a more noticeable price increase compared with DDR5 products. However, there is still insufficient actual demand to sustain the rise in spot prices. Furthermore, most spot traders already have sufficient inventory. Therefore, prices have stopped falling, but the overall transaction volume is not expanding. TrendForce believes spot prices are near the trough for this downturn phase of the price cycle. Nevertheless, there is some time before the overall average spot will rebound because demand visibility is limited. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.34% from US$1.456 last week to US$1.451 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
The intermittent price increases of packaged dies at various capacities are reflecting persistently sluggish market demand, while wafer prices, after several consecutive weeks of elevation in prices, are now gradually subsiding in differences to that of the contract market. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 3.88% this week, arriving at US$1.578.

DRAM Spot Market
TrendForce has found that in the past week, the supply of used DDR4 chips (that were stripped from decommissioned server DRAM modules) has started to tighten. Therefore, products in the lower price range have also experienced small price hikes. However, the biggest issue still lies with the demand situation. The spot trading of chips and modules will remain tepid as long as buyers lack the willingness to make significant procurements. The average price of the mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.21% from US$1.460 last week to US$1.457 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
The spot market is seen with fluctuations of prices among packaged dies at different capacities, though the tendency has not continued regardless. With suppliers constantly increasing their quotations, buyers are still at the wait-and-see end and have yet to fully turn aggressive in the stocking. Wafer prices, after several consecutive weeks of slow increment, are now drawing near the low market price interval. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 5.49% this week, arriving at US$1.519.

DRAM Spot Market:

The spot market has shown no demand turnaround this week, so prices there are stagnant. Unlike the situation in the contract market, suppliers are not collectively attempting to moderate the price decline in the spot market due to the lack of a notable rebound in the sales of consumer electronics. Also, high inventories held by module houses are keeping spot prices on a downward trajectory. On the whole, spot prices of DDR4 and DDR5 products continue to show daily drops. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.07% from US$1.461 last week to US$1.460 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

The spot market is seen with a recovery of purchase willingness this week due to the power outage at SK hynix, though TrendForce’s survey confirms that the particular incident has not yielded any impact towards market supply. Low-priced transactions no longer exist among spot prices of NAND Flash after suppliers’ significant drop of production in 2H23, and the declination that lasted for several consecutive weeks is now halted. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.440.

SK Hynix, a semiconductor leader, announced a significant breakthrough in NAND flash technology on August 9 at the Flash Memory Summit in California. They introduced a pioneering 321-layer 1Tb TLC 4D NAND flash memory, marking a notable advancement in NAND capabilities.

As the first company in the industry to surpass 300 layers in NAND development, SK Hynix plans to refine the 321-layer NAND for mass production by mid-2025. This leap builds upon their expertise gained from 238-layer NAND production, showcasing their commitment to pushing technological boundaries.

The efficiency of the 321-layer NAND is 59% higher than its 238-layer predecessor, attributed to enhanced data storage unit stacking. This translates to increased storage capacity and improved chip output per wafer.

In response to the growing demand for high-performance memory solutions in the AI market, SK Hynix unveiled next-gen NAND products, including PCIe 5-equipped enterprise SSDs and UFS 4.0 solutions, catering to the increasing need for advanced storage.

SK Hynix’s dedication to innovation is further emphasized by its ongoing development of PCI 6.0 and UFS 5.0 products, solidifying its market leadership position. Meanwhile, VP of SK Hynix NAND Flash Development, affirmed their commitment to leading the NAND technology domain with the development of fifth-gen 321-layer 4D NAND, tailored to the AI era.

(Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OJ3_hw2jQuXT5YGiX0K8-Q)