According to the latest weekly memory spot prices published by TrendForce, the spot prices of DDR5 chips have returned to a downward trend, resulting in no signs of recovery in overall spot prices. For more details, please refer to the information below:

DRAM Spot Market:
Spot prices of DDR5 chips have swung down again, and spot prices of DDR4 and DDR3 products continue to register incremental declines on a daily basis. The spot market on the whole has yet to show signs of a price rebound. Lately, some buyers have been seeking quotes for small-quantity orders, but this kind of demand does not generate a sufficient momentum to expand the overall transaction volume. Presently, most traders generally believe that spot prices are almost at the bottom, but they remain passive in stocking up because the demand outlook is quite negative. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.97% from US$1.543 last week to US$1.528 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:
It is now a consensus within the market that prices are no longer able to drop further amidst the manifestation of efficacy from the diminished provision among suppliers. Spot prices are now starting to stabilize on the whole despite transactions having yet to magnify accordingly. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.49% this week, arriving at US$1.420.

TrendForce’s latest research indicates that, as production cuts to DRAM and NAND Flash have not kept pace with weakening demand, the ASP of some products is expected to decline further in 2Q23. DRAM prices are projected to fall 13~18%; NAND Flash is expected to fall between 8~13%.

DRAM Spot Market

In the spot market, the trajectory of prices of DDR5 chips is going to be a highlight in the short term. Some sellers are now willing to lower quotes on DDR5 products that have been enjoying price hikes for many consecutive days. However, there have been few to no actual transactions, so TrendForce will continue to closely monitor changes in the prices of these products. As for spot prices of DDR3 and DDR4 products, they are still on a downward trajectory with no sign of easing. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 1.33% from US$1.575 last week to US$1.554 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
Suppliers continue to enlarge in production cuts. Despite the insignificant increase in spot market demand, the continuously shrinking output of small-capacity wafers, as well as the attempt at price revitalization among a number of suppliers, have pulled up demand and transactions of low-priced inventory within the spot market, which led to a small price increment. However, mainstream wafer prices have yet to suspend in decline. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.21% this week, arriving at US$1.427.

YMTC has officially notified a 3~5% price increase for NAND Flash in mid-May. However, the initial impact of the price hike is expected to be felt in the enterprise market, and it may take some time to reflect in the consumer spot market.

The semiconductor industry is in the midst of a correction period aimed at tackling inventory challenges, and the memory sector is feeling the impact. Major players in global memory manufacturing, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and YMTC, have recently disclosed substantial cuts in CAPEX, ranging from 45~50% starting from 4Q22. The most recent financial reports from Micron and Samsung further underscore the industry’s downward trend.

TrendForce highlights that YMTC’s decision to raise prices comes amidst market conditions marked by substantial oversupply in the second quarter. Despite Samsung’s efforts to curtail production, the positive effects of this reduction are not anticipated to materialize until the latter part of the year. Consequently, experts predict a more substantial decline in contract prices for the second quarter of 2023 than initially expected.

The market situation in 2Q23 is still oversupplied, leading to further price declines. Since October of last year, the market transaction price for wafers has been lower than the supplier’s cash cost due to selling pressure. Some suppliers used the opportunity when Samsung announced production cuts to raise the wafer price, which is likely why YMTC made this announcement. TrendForce predicts that as demand gradually recovers in the second half of the year, wafer prices will become more resilient. (Photo credit: YMTC LinkedIn)

According to the weekly memory spot price trends released by TrendForce, apart from a slight increase in the price of DDR5 chips due to shortages, the spot prices of other memory products continue to decline. The detailed situation is as follows:

DRAM Spot Market

Spot prices of DDR5 chips have risen slightly due to the frequent occurrence of quality-related issues and their impact on the overall supply of DDR5 products. As for the rest of DRAM products, their spot prices have returned to the trend of incremental daily decline. The overall transaction volume has yet to pick up. Some traders appear to be more willing to stock up, but there are no signs of a price rebound because the demand outlook is uncertain and supply is plentiful. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 1.62% from US$1.603 last week to US$1.577 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Purchase sentiment for spots is rather torpid this week, where the overall sufficient volume in the market is not received with buyer inquiries and aggressive transactions, which explains how prices are maintained on a slow reduction on the whole, and wafer prices are slowly falling to the level of contract prices. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.07% in spot prices this week, arriving at US$1.430.

Over the past few years, the US Department of Commerce has imposed export restrictions and the CHIPS Act, causing political tensions to rise between China and the US. To mitigate geopolitical risks, customers are beginning to diversify the proportion of Chinese and non-Chinese suppliers, with Taiwanese foundries expected to benefit.

Industry sources claim that one of the world’s top three CMOS image sensor manufacturers, which previously produced CIS chips for laptops at Hua Hong, has reportedly shifted its orders to PSMC at the request of its customers. Another major power discrete manufacturer is also reportedly considering discussions with PSMC for related cooperation due to geopolitical concerns.

The subsidy regulations of the CHIPS Act prohibit subsidy recipients from transferring funds to related foreign entities, expanding semiconductor manufacturing capacity in “related countries” within 10 years, or engaging in any form of joint research or technology licensing with foreign entities involved in sensitive technology or products.

China’s advanced process capacity will only account for 1% in 2025

TrendForce predicts that the CHIPS Act may further reduce the willingness of multinational semiconductor companies to invest in China. Japan and the Netherlands have also joined the sanctions, which may hinder the expansion plans of both Chinese and multinational foundries in China. Chinese foundries are more active in expanding mature process capacity, with a projected growth of 27% from 2022~2025, but the advanced process has only 1% in 2025. However, the US is expected to have the highest growth rate in advanced processes (7nm and below), reaching 12% by 2025.

China’s memory production capacity will decline annually

SK hynix is the only one of the top three DRAM manufacturers with a production facility in China’s Wuxi. Due to factors such as oversupply and geopolitics, Wuxi’s DRAM production has decreased from 48% to 44%. The company’s new plant is expected to be located in Korea. Meanwhile, Samsung and Micron have no DRAM production in China, and their expansion plans will focus on Korea and the United States respectively. According to TrendForce, as DRAM production in Korea continues to rise, China’s global share of DRAM production capacity will gradually decline from 14% to 12% between 2023 and 2025.

Samsung and SK Hynix are reportedly unlikely to expand their legacy-process production lines for NAND flash memory as they approach manufacturing of 200-layer and higher products, making sub-128-layer processes uncompetitive. Instead, they are planning to establish new production facilities in South Korea or other regions. This move could restrict China’s NAND flash production capacity expansion and process upgrades, causing its global market share to drop from an estimated 31% to 18% between 2023 and 2025.

(Image credit: SMIC)