According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM spot prices, demand has yet to show improvement, leading to increased inventory pressure on suppliers, which indicates the potential for larger price drops in the future. As for NAND flash, the overall price trend is still shifting to a reduction, which led to a small drop in prices for packaged dies and wafers from the spot market. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Continuing from last week, demand has yet to show improvement, leading to increased inventory pressure on suppliers. Consequently, suppliers are more willing to offer price concessions in the spot market. Overall, spot transactions continue to show low volumes. Additionally, the prices that buyers are willing to accept are significantly lower than the official prices set by sellers, resulting in a stalemate. Therefore, there is a potential for larger price drops in the future. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.20% from US$1.989 last week to US$1.985 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Sluggishness persists among spot market transactions after the opening in August, where buyers are maintaining their strong on-the-fence sentiment. Despite emergence of demand for partial stocking orders, the overall price trend is still shifting to a reduction due to a lack of continuity, which led to a small drop in prices for packaged dies and wafers from the spot market this week, where 512Gb TLC wafer has fallen by 0.58% in spot prices, now arriving at US$3.272.

Japanese semiconductor equipment maker Tokyo Electron (TEL) has raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year 2024 (ending March 2025), expecting an operating profit of JPY 627 billion (approximately USD 4.3 billion), an 8% increase from its previous guidance.

Tokyo Electron contributed the strong growth trend compared to the previous fiscal year, driven by China’s significant investment in mature semiconductor nodes. The company has also raised its sales and profit outlook for the period from April to September.

For the quarter ending in June, Tokyo Electron reported revenue of JPY 555 billion, reversing a declining trend seen since 2022. Operating profit for these three months was JPY 165.7 billion.

Source: TEL

The past year, to Tokyo Electron, has been in turbulence year, as initial optimism from AI demand and the semiconductor manufacturing industry was tempered by U.S. export restrictions.

Regarding the matter, Hiroshi Kawamoto, finance division officer of Tokyo Electron, stated in a conference call that there are currently no signs of the U.S. implementing stricter restrictions on chip-making tools, while the company will continue to closely monitor the situation.

As of the quarter ending in March, over 47% of its revenue came from China due to increased equipment stockpiling in anticipation of potential U.S. sanctions. In the recent quarter, nearly 50% of revenue was generated from the Chinese market.

Source: TEL

Looking ahead to the next fiscal year (FY2025), Tokyo Electron expects double-digit growth, driven by strong demand for AI servers and an increase in AI-enabled PCs and smartphones.

This resurgence in demand is anticipated to boost the market. The company expects further expansion in DRAM production and a recovery in NAND investment due to inventory adjustments. However, investment in advanced logic and foundry services is expected to offset the slowdown in mature process technologies.

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, neither did the DRAM nor NAND spot prices sees much momentum. DDR5 products are relatively stable, while the spot prices of DDR4 products continue to fall gradually due to high inventory levels. As for NAND flash, the spot market saw no apparent changes from last week at a restricted level of transactions also due to sufficient inventory. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

The market has not shown notable changes in terms of momentum, and spot prices of DDR5 products are relatively stable. As for DDR4 products, spot prices continue to fall gradually due to high inventory levels. Overall, spot trading is quite limited in terms of volume due to the constraint imposed by weak consumer demand. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.10% from US$1.991 last week to US$1.989 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The spot market saw no apparent changes from last week at a restricted level of transactions also due to sufficient inventory. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have risen by 1.17% this week, arriving at US$3.291.

As the battle of HBM intensifies between memory giants, the competition of NAND is also heating up. According to a report by Korean media outlet etnews, SK hynix is developing 400-layer NAND flash memory, aiming to get the technology ready for mass production by the end of 2025.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report notes that SK hynix is currently working with supply chain partners to develop process technologies and equipment needed for 400-layer and above NANDs. As the company plans to apply hybrid bonding to achieve the breakthrough, many packaging materials and components suppliers are expected to enter the new supply chain.

According to the report, SK hynix is reviewing new materials for bonding and various technologies for connecting different wafers, including polishing, etching, deposition, and wiring. With the goal of getting the technology and infrastructure ready by the end of next year, full-scale production for the 400-layer NAND is anticipated to begin in the first half of 2026.

Currently, the Big Three in the memory sector are all trying to push the boundaries on the layers of NAND. Earlier in April, Samsung confirmed that it has begun mass production for its one-terabit (Tb) triple-level cell (TLC) 9th-generation vertical NAND (V-NAND), with the number of layers reaching 290. For now, the company aims to stack V-NAND to over 1000 layers by 2030.

Micron, on the other hand, has announced the 2650 client SSD, its first product built from 276-layer 3D NAND on July 30^th. Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia, after successfully increasing the number of 3D NAND layers to 218 in 2023, even stated that achieving a 1,000-layer level by 2027 would be possible.

In August, 2023, SK hynix showcased its sample of the world’s first 321-layer NAND product. Now, as the limit is expected to be pushed up to 400 layers, the company plans to apply hybrid bonding to the manufacturing, which adopts a “wafer-to-wafer” (W2W) structure, etnews notes.

According to the report, until now, SK hynix has been stacking cells on top of the peripherals, the driving circuit area, using the method of “Peripheral Under Cell (PUC)” to manufacture NAND. The structure is similar to a mixed-use high-rise apartment where the peripheral (commercial space) is at the bottom and the cells (residential units) are stacked on top.

However, as the number of NAND layers increases, the peripheral is prone to be damaged during the cell stacking process due to the high heat and pressure generated during the cell process, the report explains.

Therefore, SK hynix plans to apply hybrid bonding to overcome the issues. By implementing cells and peripherals on separate wafers and then bonding the two wafers together, the method allows the peripheral wafer that drive the cells to be separately manufactured, thus enabling a stable increase in NAND layers.

Regarding the progress on the development of 400-layer NAND, SK hynix stated that it cannot confirm details about its technology development or mass production timeline, the report notes.

Read more

• [News] SK Hynix Plans to Manufacture 3D NAND over 400 Layers at -70°C with the Help of TEL
• [News] Outpacing Samsung or the End of Race? Kioxia Aims 1000-layer NAND by 2027

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

Japanese NAND flash giant Kioxia announced today (August 1st) that the building construction of Fab2 (K2) of its Kitakami Plant in Iwate Prefecture was completed in July. As demand is recovering, the company will gradually make capital investments while closely monitoring flash memory market trends. Kioxia plans to start operation at K2 in the fall of Calendar Year 2025, according to its press release.

A portion of investment for K2 will be subsidized by the Japanese government according to the plan approved in February 2024, according to Kioxia.

In addition, the company notes that some administration and engineering departments will move into a new administration building located adjacent to K2 beginning in November 2024 to oversee the operation of K2.

According to a report from Nikkei on July 31, Kioxia’s Kitakami Plant started production in 2020,with the construction of K2 began in 2022. Initially, K2 was scheduled to commence production in 2023.

However, due to a downturn in the memory market and weak demand for NAND Flash used in smartphones and PCs, Kioxia started to reduce production in October 2022, with the extent of production cuts exceeding 30%. As part of these production reduction measures, Kioxia postponed the production start of the K2 facility.

Nikkei’s report further indicates that with market conditions recovering, Kioxia ended its production cuts in June 2024, and the current production line utilization rate has returned to 100%.

To mass-produce advanced memory products, Kioxia, in collaboration with Western Digital (WD), plans to invest a total of 729 billion yen in the Yokkaichi and Kitakami plants, with the Japanese government providing up to 243 billion yen in subsidies.

The Kitakami plant will produce the most advanced “8th generation” memory, with a monthly production capacity of 25,000 wafers. These will be used in AI data centers, as well as in smartphones, PCs, and automotive applications.

On June 26, according to industry sources cited in a report from Reuters, Kioxia plans to submit an initial public offering (IPO) application to the Tokyo Stock Exchange in the near future, aiming to go public by the end of October. Sources indicate that Kioxia will submit its official IPO application by the end of August, with a target listing date at the end of October.

Read more

• [News] NAND Flash Giant Kioxia Reportedly Plans IPO by Late October amid Market Recovery
• [News] Kioxia Optimistic about NAND Market Sentiment; Price Hike Expected in Q2

(Photo credit: Kioxia)