Thanks to the surge in AI demand, Samsung and SK Hynix, the world’s leading memory chip manufacturers, anticipate the prices of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to remain strong this year due to increasing demand for high-performance chips. According to the Korea Economic Daily, Samsung and SK Hynix have converted over 20% of their DRAM production lines to produce HBM.

Last week, SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung announced at a press conference that their HBM chips have already been sold out for 2024 and are nearly sold out for 2025.

During an investor relations meeting hosted by Samsung Securities on May 9th and 10^th, a SK Hynix official stated that the company’s HBM chips are supplied through binding annual contracts, which detail supply volumes, payment methods, and deadlines.

The price drop in HBM3 will be offset by the price increase in HBM3e, so the gross profit margin is expected to remain stable in 2024, according to the Korea Economic Daily, citing the SK Hynix official. It is also reported that NVIDIA is the major customer of SK Hynix’s eight-layer HBM3e.

According to the report, a Samsung IR executive also stated that the company’s HBM production has been sold out. Based on the current supply and demand situation, Samsung has predicted that HBM will not be in oversupply in 2025.

Samsung noted that the gap between its eight-layer stacked HBM3e and SK Hynix’s is closing, claiming it has taken the lead with 12-layer HBM3e.

In late March, South Korean media Alphabiz reported that Samsung may exclusively supply 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA, indicating NVIDIA is set to commence large-scale purchases of Samsung’s 12-layer HBM3e as early as September.

In terms of the price outlook for traditional DRAM and solid-state drives (SSDs), both SK Hynix and Samsung remain positive.

According to the latest forecast by Trendforce, the HBM market is poised for robust growth, driven by significant pricing premiums and increased capacity needs for AI chips. HBM prices are expected to Increase by 5–10% in 2025.

In terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024, potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

SK Hynix has updated its latest timeline regarding HBM4E, the company’s 7th generation high bandwidth memory, on Monday. According to reports from Wccftech and TheElec, the memory heavyweight’s generation changes of two-year gap has been shortened to one, and is now on track to launch HBM4E by 2026.

The news was revealed by Kim Gwi-wook, head of SK Hynix’s HBM advanced technology, during the International Memory Week 2024 held in Seoul yesterday. Earlier in February, Chun-hwan Kim, Vice President of SK Hynix, stated that the company plans to commence large-scale production of HBM4, their sixth generation of the HBM family, in 2026, as well.

According to TheElec, HBM4E will be the first chip from SK Hynix to be made through its 10-nanometer (nm) class Gen 6 (1c) DRAM. It is reportedly to be made of 32Gb DRAM and use 1c DRAM as the core die.

According to Wccftech, HBM4E’s feature bandwidth is said to be 1.4 times higher than that of its predecessor, HBM4. This indicates a significant enhancement in power efficiency, providing a preview of the advancements we can anticipate in next-gen AI accelerators.

Earlier in April, SK Hynix announced it has recently signed a memorandum of understanding with TSMC for collaboration to produce next-generation HBM and enhance logic and HBM integration through advanced packaging technology. The company plans to proceed with the development of HBM4, or the sixth generation of the HBM family, slated to be mass produced from 2026, through this initiative.

Samsung, SK Hynix’s major competitor on memory, also schedules to start mass production of HBM4 in 2026.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

TrendForce’s latest findings revealed that as of 2024, Taiwan is expected to lead the global semiconductor foundry capacity in advanced manufacturing processes (including 16/14nm and more advanced technologies) with a 66% market share, followed by Korea (11%), US (10%), and China (9%). However, the semiconductor production capacities of advanced nodes in Taiwan and Korea are projected to decrease to 55% and 8%, respectively, by 2027.

It is worth noting that though semiconductor heavyweights including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung keep raising the amount of investments,  Taiwan and Korea, as the two countries holding the highest market share in advanced nodes, are expected to fall in their market shares.

On the other hand, in the US, where the government has been pushing incentives and subsidies more aggressively, its global capacity share in advanced manufacturing processes is expected to jump from 10% in 2024 to 22% in 2027.

Per the overall foundry capacity, Taiwan is expected to hold approximately 44% of global market share as of 2024, followed by China (28%), South Korea (12%), the US (6%), and Japan (2%). The overall trend is expected to be in line with advanced nodes. In contrast, the overall semiconductor production capacities of Taiwan and South Korea are projected to decrease to 40% and 10%, respectively, by 2027.

China, where foundries focus more on expanding mature process capacities and are backed by government subsidies, is projected to perform relatively strong in the overall global market share, growing from 28% in 2024 to 31% in 2027. Its market share of the matured process (including ≥28nm nodes) capacity is expected to rise from 33% in 2024 to 45% in 2027.

According to a report from THE CHOSUN Daily on May 10th, citing forecast from The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in 2022, Taiwan and Korea held 69% and 31% shares of the production of the most advanced semiconductors below 10 nanometers, while their market share on the advanced nodes may fall to 47% and 9% in 2032, respectively.

The report as mentioned earlier stated that the dramatic decline in South Korea’s semiconductor production share is primarily attributed to key players like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, who currently dominate the global advanced semiconductor market alongside TSMC. However, instead of investing in South Korea, they have opted to establish their latest factories in the United States.

The US government announced earlier in April that it would provide up to USD 6.4 billion in subsidies to Samsung for expanding advanced chip production capacity at its Texas plant. In addition, SK Hynix plans to spend $3.87 billion building an advanced packaging plant and research center for artificial intelligence products in Indiana.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

SoftBank Group’s global IP leader, Arm, has reportedly announced the establishment of an AI chip division with the goal of developing AI chip prototypes by spring 2025. According to a report from DRAMeXchange, mass production will be handled by contract manufacturers, with initial production slated to begin in autumn 2025.

Arm will cover the initial development costs estimated to reach several trillion yen, funded by SoftBank Group. Once a large-scale production system is built, Arm’s AI chip business may be spun off and incorporated into a SoftBank Group division, which is because SoftBank holds a total of 90% of Arm’s shares and has been in talks with TSMC to secure production capacity.

Arm is a significant player in the global semiconductor industry, renowned for its energy-efficient Arm architecture, which commands over 90% of the global market share in smartphone chip field. SoftBank acquired Arm in 2016 for USD 32 billion, empowering Arm to go public on the US stock exchange in September 2023.

Last week, Arm reported fiscal 2024 fourth quarter revenue of USD 928 million (+47% YoY) and adjusted operating profit of USD 391 million. It forecasts first-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be USD 875-925 million, expecting annual revenue to be USD 3.8-4.1 billion.

According to Canada’s Precedence Research, the current market size for AI chips is USD 30 billion, expected to exceed USD 100 billion by 2029 and USD 200 billion by 2032. Despite NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI chip technology, it is unable to meet the growing demand.

Eyeing on the opportunities presented by the AI wave, SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son has identified AI as a key focus area for development and is seeking to raise USD 100 billion to found an AI chip company to compete with NVIDIA.

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(Photo credit: SoftBank News)

According to a report from Korean media The Korea Economic Daily, Samsung Electronics Co. is planning to apply its 3nm process chips to its Galaxy series smartphones and smartwatches, posing a challenge to rivals Apple and TSMC.

The report cited industry sources on May 13th, stating that Samsung’s second-generation 3nm production line in South Korea is set to commence operations in the latter half of this year (2024). The first product to be manufactured on this line will reportedly be the application processor (AP) for the upcoming Galaxy Watch7, tentatively named “Exynos W1000,” which is expected to be unveiled in July.

As per the same report citing sources, the Exynos W1000 is set to utilize the semiconductor industry’s most advanced second-generation 3nm process, with computing performance and power efficiency expected to increase by over 20%. In comparison, the Apple Watch Series 9 utilizes a 5nm application processor.

On another note, industry sources cited by the same report revealed that Samsung’s next-generation flagship smartphone, the Galaxy S25, scheduled for an early 2025 release, will also feature the 3nm Exynos W1000 application processor. Samsung aims to unveil this technology ahead of the Paris Summer Olympics opening on July 26th, with a “Galaxy Unpacked” event scheduled for July 10th in Paris.

The mobile processor industry has entered the 3nm battleground. Per Wccftech’s previous report, it is rumored that TSMC’s N3E process is also used for producing products like the A18 Pro chip scheduled to be used in iPhone 16 Pro, the upcoming Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 4, and the MediaTek Dimensity 9400, among other major clients’ products.

Meanwhile, as per a report from another South Korean media outlet TheElec, Siyoung Choi, the President of Samsung’s Foundry Business, predicted during the annual shareholders’ meeting on March 20th that the second-generation 3nm process is expected to begin production in the latter half of this year, while production for the 2nm process is slated for next year.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)