The US-China tech war continues to escalate, as reported by the Financial Times (FT). Beijing has reportedly instructed official institutions in China to refrain from using PCs and servers equipped with microprocessors from Intel and AMD, as well as to reduce procurement of Microsoft Windows operating systems and database software outside of China.

In response to these reports, both Microsoft and Intel have declined to comment, while AMD, China’s Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the China Information Security Evaluation Center have not responded to requests for comment from FT reporters.

FT further reveals that Chinese authorities have requested state-owned enterprises to promote localization internally. Intel and AMD are the two major semiconductor giants in the United States, dominating nearly all global market shares of PC processors.

As both Intel and AMD are significant customers of TSMC’s advanced process nodes, this move is expected to influence TSMC’s future order status. Regarding China’s full-scale development of proprietary computer processors, its potential impact on ASIC-related companies in Taiwan remains to be seen.

As per Industry sources cited by the report, they have suggested that this move by Chinese authorities demonstrates their determination to strengthen local semiconductor autonomy and enhance manufacturing and design capabilities. On the manufacturing side, the focus remains on supporting SMIC, while chip design is primarily led by companies such as Huawei and Phytium.

Per the same report, following the release of new guidelines by China’s Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on December 26th last year, officials have begun adhering to the latest standards for PC, laptop, and server procurement this year. They have mandated that government departments at the township level and above, as well as party organizations, must incorporate standards for purchasing “secure and trustworthy” processors and operating systems.

The China Information Technology Security Evaluation Center has published the first list of “safe and reliable” processors and operating systems, all of which are from Chinese enterprises.

Among the 18 approved processors are chips from Huawei and Phytium. Chinese processor manufacturers are utilizing a hybrid architecture combining Intel x86, Arm, and self-developed designs for chip production, while operating systems are sourced from open-source Linux software.

Prior to the speculated tightening of restrictions by China on the United States, a report from Bloomberg citing sources had already signaled that the US government is considering adding Chinese semiconductor companies linked to Huawei to a blacklist.

Currently, companies that have been listed on the entity list by the US Department of Commerce include Huawei, SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), and Shanghai Micro Electronics. Additionally, China’s other major memory manufacturer, Yangtze Memory Technology Corp, was added to this restriction list in 2022.

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• [News] US Government Considers Adding ChangXin Memory Technologies to Entity List, Imposing Further Sanctions on Chinese Firms
• [News] US Considers Sanctioning Huawei-Linked Chinese Chip Network, Huawei-Related Enterprises Blacklisted

(Photo credit: iStock)

As the demand for AI is becoming urgent, according to industry sources cited by the ChinaTimes News, TSMC’s Fab20 P1 plant in Hsinchu’s Baoshan area will undergo equipment installation engineering in April to warm up for mass production of the GAA (gate-all-around) architecture.

Reportedly, it is expected that Baoshan P1, P2, and the three fabs scheduled for advanced process production in Kaohsiung will all commence mass production in 2025, attracting customers such as Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm to compete for production capacity.

Regarding this rumor, TSMC declined to comment.

Per the industry sources cited by the same report, whether wafer manufacturing is profitable is depending on the yield after mass production. The key lies in the speed at which the yield improves; the longer it takes and the higher the cost, the more challenging it becomes.

As per the same report, TSMC is said to be accelerating its entry into the 2-nanometer realm in April, aiming to shorten the time required for yield improvement in advanced processes. This move not only poses a continuous threat to Samsung and Intel but also widens TSMC’s leading edge.

Industry sources cited by the ChinaTimes’ report have revealed that TSMC has prepared for first tool-in at P1, with trial production expected in the fourth quarter this year and mass production in the second quarter of next year. Equipment manufacturers indicate that they have already deployed personnel and conducted preparatory training in response to TSMC’s customized demands.

As a new milestone in chip manufacturing processes, the 2-nanometer node will provide higher performance and lower power consumption. It adopts Nanosheet technology structure and further develops backside power rail technology. TSMC believes that the 2-nanometer node will enable it to maintain its technological leadership and seize the growth opportunities in AI.

In fact, the cost of producing 2-nanometer chips is exceptionally high. Per the report citing sources, compared to the 3-nanometer node, costs are expected to increase by 50%, with the per-wafer cost reaching USD 30,000. Therefore, the initial adopters are expected to be smartphone chip clients, notably Apple.

Previously, per a report from the media outlet wccftech, Apple’s iPhone, Mac, iPad, and other devices will be the first users of TSMC’s 2nm process. Apple will leverage TSMC’s 2nm process technology to enhance chip performance and reduce power consumption. This advancement is expected to result in longer battery life for future Apple products, such as the iPhone and MacBook.

Unlike with the 3-nanometer node, the complexity of the design means customers must start collaborating with TSMC earlier in the development process. Market speculations suggest that many clients such as MediaTek, Qualcomm, AMD, and NVIDIA have already begun cooperation. TSMC’s earnings call also emphasized that the number of customers for N2 is higher than that for N3 at the same stage of development.

The Fab 20 facility is expected to begin receiving related equipment for 2nm production as early as April, with plans to transition to GAA (Gate-All-Around) technology from FinFET for 2nm mass production by 2025.

The competition in the development of 2-nanometer technology is fierce. ASML plans to produce 10 2-nanometer EUV lithography machines this year, with Intel already reserving 6 of them. Additionally, Japan has mobilized its national efforts to establish Rapidus Semiconductor Manufacturing, which also aims to compete in the 2-nanometer process.

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• [News] Intensified Competition in the Semiconductor Industry for 2nm Technology Dominance, Potentially Reshaping the Global Foundry Market
• [News] TSMC’s Primary Client for 2nm Chips Expected to be Apple, Set to Debut with iPhone 17 Lineup Next Year

According to a report from Korean media outlet THE ELEC, a senior executive at analog chip manufacturer Texas Instruments (TI) stated that the company is transitioning its production of gallium nitride (GaN) chips from several 6-inch fabs to 8-inch fabs.

The same report further noted that Jerome Shin, manager of Texas Instruments’ Korean subsidiary, stated at a press conference in Seoul that Texas Instruments is preparing to build 8-inch fabs in Dallas and Aizu, Japan. This move will enable the company to offer more competitively priced GaN chips.

Jerome Shin pointed out that there has been a shift in the perception of GaN chips compared to silicon carbide (SiC) chips since 2022. While GaN chips were previously considered more expensive, this perception is changing because Texas Instruments is transitioning its production from 6-inch fabs to 8-inch fabs. Producing larger wafers means more chips per wafer, leading to increased productivity and lower costs for GaN chips.

Currently, the price of GaN chips is already lower than that of SiC chips. Once the transformation of Texas Instruments’ fabs in Dallas and Aizu, Japan is completed, they will be able to offer even more affordable solutions. Expansion at the Dallas facility is expected to be completed by 2025, although Jerome Shin did not disclose the timetable for the Aizu facility.

However, some industry sources cited in the report suggest that Texas Instruments’ plan may lead to a comprehensive decline in GaN chip prices.

Currently, Texas Instruments is also transitioning the production of power management IC from 8-inch fabs to 12-inch fabs. This move has already resulted in a decrease in the prices of power management chips across the industry.

Still, reportedly, transitioning the production of power management chips from 8-inch fabs to 12-inch fabs could enable Texas Instruments to save over 10% in costs.

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• [News] Major Acquisition in SiC/GaN Semiconductor Industry Concludes as Infineon Completes GaN Systems Purchase

(Photo credit: Texas Instruments)

Micron, the major memory manufacturer in the United States, has benefited from AI demand, turning losses into profits last quarter (ending in February) and issuing optimistic financial forecasts.

During its earnings call on March 20th, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated that the company’s HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity for this year has been fully allocated, with most of next year’s capacity already booked. HBM products are expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Micron in the current fiscal year.

Per a report from Washington Post, Micron expects revenue for the current quarter (ending in May) to be between USD 6.4 billion and USD 6.8 billion, with a midpoint of USD 6.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of USD 6 billion.

Last quarter, Micron’s revenue surged 58% year-on-year to USD 5.82 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s expectation of USD 5.35 billion. The company posted a net profit of USD 790 million last quarter, a turnaround from a loss of USD 2.3 billion in the same period last year. Excluding one-time charges, Micron’s EPS reached USD 0.42 last quarter. Mehrotra reportedly attributed Micron’s return to profitability last quarter to the company’s efforts in pricing, product, and operational costs.

Over the past year, memory manufacturers have reduced production, coupled with the explosive growth of the AI industry, which has led to a surge in demand for NVIDIA AI processors, benefiting upstream memory manufacturers.

Mehrotra stated, “We believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multiyear opportunity enabled by AI.”

The projected growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash bit demand in 2024 are close to 15% and in the mid-teens, respectively. However, the supply growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash bits in 2024 are both lower than the demand growth rates.

Micron utilizes 176 and 232-layer processes for over 90% of its NAND Flash production. As for HBM3e, it is expected to contribute to revenue starting from the second quarter.

Per a previous TrendForce press release, the three major original HBM manufacturers held market shares as follows in 2023: SK Hynix and Samsung were both around 46-49%, while Micron stood at roughly 4-6%.

In terms of capital expenditures, the company maintains an amount of USD 7.5 to USD 8 billion (taking into account U.S. government subsidies), primarily allocated for enhancing HBM-related capacity.

Micron stated that due to the more complex packaging of HBM, it consumes three times the DRAM capacity of DDR5, indirectly constraining the capacity for non-HBM products, thereby improving overall DRAM market supply.

As per Micron’s report, regarding growth outlooks for various end markets in 2024, the annual growth rate for the data center industry has been revised upward from mid-single digits to mid-to-high single digits, while the PC industry’s annual growth rate remains at low to mid-single digits. AI PCs are expected to capture a certain market share in 2025. The annual growth rate for the mobile phone industry has been adjusted upward from modest growth to low to mid-single digits.

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• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200
• [News] Three-way Contest for HBM Dominance, Uncertainties Surrounding China’s Supply Chain Involvement

(Photo credit: Micron)

Amid the AI boom driving a surge in demand for advanced packaging, South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung Electronics is aggressively entering the advanced packaging arena. On the 20th, it announced its ambitions to achieve record-high revenue in advanced packaging this year, aiming to surpass the USD 100 million mark.

According to reports from Reuters and The Korea Times, Samsung’s annual shareholders’ meeting took place on March 20th.

During the meeting, Han Jong-hee, the vice chairman of the company, stated as follows: “Although the macroeconomic environment is expected to be uncertain this year, we see an opportunity for increased growth through next-generation technology innovation.”

“Samsung plans to apply AI to all devices, including smartphones, foldable devices, accessories and extended reality (XR), to provide customers with a new experience where generative AI and on-device AI unfold,” Han added.

Samsung established the Advanced Package Business Team under the Device Solutions business group in December last year. Samsung Co-CEO Kye-Hyun Kyung stated that he expects the results of Samsung’s investment to come out in earnest from the second half of this year.

Kyung further noted that for a future generation of HBM chips called HBM4, likely to be released in 2025 with more customised designs, Samsung will take advantage of having memory chips, chip contract manufacturing and chip design businesses under one roof to satisfy customer needs.

According to a previous report from TrendForce, Samsung led the pack with the highest revenue growth among the top manufacturers in Q4 as it jumped 50% QoQ to hit $7.95 billion, largely due to a surge in 1alpha nm DDR5 shipments, boosting server DRAM shipments by over 60%. In the fourth quarter of last year, Samsung secured a market share of 45.5% in DRAM chips.

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• [News] Samsung Accelerates 3D Packaging with Hybrid Bonding Production Line in Korean Advanced Packaging Hub
• DRAM Industry Sees Nearly 30% Revenue Growth in 4Q23 Due to Rising Prices and Volume, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Samsung)