SK hynix, the South Korean memory giant, has revealed plans to consider increasing production of specific DRAM in the first quarter due to improved market conditions. Concerns arise in the market regarding the potential resurgence of capacity utilization, challenging the consensus among memory manufacturers to reduce production for price enhancement, possibly hindering the upward trajectory of DRAM in the future.

According to a report by the Commercial Times, industry experts believe that major memory manufacturers, including Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, are upgrading their production capacities to 1-alpha/beta advanced processes to meet the demand for more profitable DDR5 and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). The outlook for niche DRAM product in the future is expected to remain positive.

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung previously stated at the 2024 CES in Las Vegas that the company is considering increasing production of specific DRAM in the first quarter due to improved market conditions. Kwak mentioned that while the worst conditions for NAND Flash should be over, the industry’s recovery is slower. Therefore, any decision to increase production would likely be considered after the mid-year point.

Following this announcement, some industry insiders expressed concerns about the potential increase in memory manufacturers’ DRAM capacity utilization, which could negatively impact the future pricing trend of DRAM.

However, according to the Commercial Times, quoting a key figure in the Taiwanese memory industry revealed that SK Hynix’s planned increase in production primarily focuses on HBM for AI applications, with a slight increase in DDR5, while the production of DDR4 will continue to decrease.

As the three major manufacturers focus on 1-alpha/beta processes, increasing the supply of DDR5 and HBM, the pricing of niche-type DRAM is expected to gradually improve amid capacity constraints. Therefore, the perceived impact of SK Hynix’s increased production of specialized DRAM on the overall future DRAM pricing is not anticipated to be negative.

TrendForce points out that, considering the need for more advanced equipment to produce increased quantities of HBM and DDR5, the production capacity for DDR3 and DDR4 in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to decrease compared to the previous year.

However, due to market considerations and the ongoing shift towards DDR5 for high-end products, the demand for DDR3 and DDR4 is expected to slow down. This distribution of production capacity aligns with market trends and developments.

Tracking back the memory prices, from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023, the memory market experienced a downturn, prompting Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to collectively reduce production. By the fourth quarter of 2023, DRAM and NAND flash memory prices finally began to rebound, continuing into the first quarter of 2024, with the momentum of price increases continuing to be closely monitored by the market.

(Image: SK hynix)

The global foundry advanced process battle is reigniting, as reported by the Commercial Times. TSMC’s 2-nanometer process at the Baoshan P1 wafer fab in Hsinchu is set to commence equipment installation as early as April, incorporating a new Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistor architecture and aiming for mass production in 2025.

Additionally, expansion plans for Baoshan P2 and the Kaohsiung fab are projected to join in 2025, with evaluations underway for Phase 2 in the Central Taiwan Science Park. The competition with Samsung and Intel in the most advanced process is intensifying.

Semiconductor industry sources note the ongoing progress in global foundry advanced processes, with Samsung entering GAA architecture early at 3 nanometers, though facing yield challenges, while Intel anticipates mass production of its RibbonFET architecture at 20A this year.

In response to fierce competition, TSMC must accelerate its pace. The ‘Gate-All-Around’ (GAA) technology is a critical factor determining whether chip processing power will double within 1.5 to 2 years.

As per the report, Samsung’s attempt to lead in the 3-nanometer chip segment, transitioning from traditional FinFET, has faced stability issues in yield, hampering customer adoption, and giving TSMC confidence in its 3-nanometer progress. This also highlights the increased complexity in transitioning from 2D to 3D chip designs with GAA transistor architecture.

Furthermore, Intel is intensifying its efforts to catch up, planning to launch Intel 20A in the first half of the year and Intel 18A in the second half. However, it is speculated that Intel 20A will be exclusively used for Intel’s own products, maintaining a close collaboration with TSMC.

TSMC, adopting a cautious approach, benefits from a more advantageous cost structure by minimizing changes in production tools within the same process technology and manufacturing flow. For customers, altering designs during advanced process development incurs significant time and economic costs.

Supply chain sources reveal that TSMC finalized various parameters for its 2-nanometer process at the end of last year, confirming specialty gases and equipment. Contracts are gradually being signed, with equipment installation at the Baoshan P1 fab scheduled to commence in April. Equipment industry sources suggest that TSMC’s process advancement is progressing rapidly as expected, speculating that there will be updates on the Baoshan P2 fab later this year.

(Image: TSMC)

Countries around the world are leaving no stone unturned in their pursuit of semiconductor development, and South Korea is no exception. South Korea has just unveiled an ambitious plan to invest a staggering 622 trillion Korean won (approximately $471 billion USD) in collaboration with industry giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, aiming to create the world’s largest semiconductor supercluster.

According to reports from The Korea Times, South Korea’s vision includes the construction of the world’s largest semiconductor cluster in Gyeonggi Province by 2047. As revealed by the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy in South Korea, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and other semiconductor companies are set to pool their resources into building 16 new fabs, with the potential to generate over 3 million job opportunities.

This ambitious undertaking will involve an expansion of the existing mega cluster, which already boasts 19 production fabs and two research fabs spread across adjacent cities in the province. The new mega chip cluster, spanning a massive 2,102 square meters, is slated to commence production, churning out an impressive 7.7 million wafers each month, beginning in 2030.

Within this sprawling cluster, Samsung Electronics has outlined plans to construct six new fabs at the national industrial complex in Yongin, with an investment commitment of 360 trillion Korean won. Additionally, the company intends to establish three fabs in Pyeongtaek, involving an investment of 120 trillion Korean won, and three research fabs at an R&D center located in the Giheung District, at a cost of 20 trillion Korean won. Meanwhile, SK hynix is earmarking 122 trillion Korean won for the construction of four fabs at another industrial complex in Yongin.

The primary objective of this supercluster is to foster an environment conducive to the production of cutting-edge memory chips, including high bandwidth memory (HBM), and system semiconductors measuring 2 nanometers or more advanced nodes.

Reports suggest that with the establishment of this new cluster, the South Korean government has set ambitious targets for the country. By 2030, they aim to capture a significant 10% share of the system semiconductor market, a substantial increase from the current 3%. 

Furthermore, the government plans to boost self-sufficiency in the supply chain of critical materials, components, and equipment from the current 30% to an impressive 50% by the year 2030.

(Image: SK Hynix)

From December 2023 to January this year, media reports revealed that five Chinese domestic power semiconductor manufacturers, including JJMicroelectronics, Sanlian Sheng, Sicilian Blue Color Electronics, Genesis Microelectronics, and Shenwei Semiconductor, have successively issued price adjustment notices to raise prices for their products.

The current significant reduction in power semiconductor inventory, coupled with signs of a gradual recovery in end-user demand, raises the question of whether the power semiconductor industry has hit rock bottom and is now rebounding.

Within a month, five Chinese power semiconductor companies consecutively issued price increase notices.

On January 14th, JJMicroelectronics sent a “Price Adjustment Notice” to customers, announcing a 5%-10% increase in unit prices for its Trench MOS product line starting from January 15, 2024. The reason for the price hike was stated as ” Due to prolonged losses, the existing prices have become insufficient to meet regular supply demands. In order to ensure the continuous delivery of products with stable and reliable quality, as well as high-quality services, prices are increased.”

On January 9th, Shenwei Semiconductor issued a notice stating that the past three years have been a challenging period for the entire semiconductor industry. Lackluster market demand led to malicious competition, continuous decline in product prices, and industry-wide competition causing frequent quality incidents. The company announced adjustments to packaging series prices for new orders, with increases ranging from 10% to 25%.

Sanlian Sheng Power Half Guide also recently released a price adjustment notice, citing significant increases in raw material and labor costs as reasons for a substantial cost increase beyond the company’s tolerance. After careful consideration, the company decided to increase the unit prices of its entire product line by 10%-20% starting from January 1, 2024.

On December 29, 2023, Sicilian Blue Color Electronics announced a product price adjustment notice, attributing the decision to continuous increases in upstream raw material prices and labor costs. The company’s existing prices were deemed insufficient to meet supply demands, leading to a careful decision to raise the unit prices of its entire product line by 10%-18% starting from January 1, 2024.

Genesis Microelectronics was the earliest to release a price increase notice. Industry rumors about Genesis Microelectronics price adjustment letter circulated on December 15, 2023, indicating a 10%-15% increase in prices for chips starting from January 1, 2024.

Some industry experts commented on the price increase notices, stating that with the current depletion of inventory and long-term losses incurred by companies, price adjustments are understandable.

What is the reason behind this round of price hikes, and is there sufficient momentum for future developments?

Over the past two years, sluggish market demand has led to malicious competition, especially in the discrete device segment, where severe competition has resulted in companies experiencing increased revenue but not increased profits.

Regarding this round of price hikes, several listed power semiconductor companies have stated that the overall prices of their power products are stable, and there have been no significant changes in downstream market trends recently.

Industry analysts believe that the recent wave of price increases in the power semiconductor market is a self-rescue measure for some companies that have no other choice.

Large and medium-sized power semiconductor companies can maintain price stability by binding with high-quality industry-leading customers to secure order volumes. In contrast, smaller factories appear more passive, forced to compete in the market with low profit margins to secure orders, making them vulnerable to inflationary pressures.

Looking at the development of the power semiconductor market in 2024, many industry professionals and institutions currently do not have high expectations. According to TrendForce statistics, major power semiconductor manufacturers and IDM, including Infineon, STMicroelectronics, ON Semiconductor, Wolfspeed, and Renesas, have experienced a continuous decline in revenue in the third quarter of 2023, with inventory levels still relatively high. Additionally, the relevant components in the automotive sector are still in the destocking phase. Due to the late start of destocking for automotive semiconductors, this downward cycle is expected to persist for some time.

Industry experts state that the main demand for power semiconductors is currently in the consumer/industrial sector, but the visibility in this area is still unclear. Overall, the short-term outlook for the power semiconductor industry may not see a reversal in prosperity.

(Image: JJMicroelectronics)

According to a report by TechNews, Taiwan has introduced its largest-ever investment deduction incentives under the “Statute for Industrial Innovation,” often referred to as the “Taiwanese Chip Act.” Articles 10-2 and 72 of the statute came into effect, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that it would accept company applications from February 1 to May 31 this year.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that applications for deductions would be accepted starting February this year. The provided tax incentives include a 25% deduction for research and development expenses and a 5% deduction for expenditures on acquiring new eqipment for advanced processes, all of which can be deducted from the current year’s corporate income tax.

Eligibility criteria include companies with research and development expenses of at least NT$6 billion, a research and development density of 6%, and expenditures of NT$10 billion for the purchase of equipment for advanced processes, with no restrictions on industry category.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs emphasized that as the parent law already specifies an effective tax rate of 12% for the fiscal year 112 and a threshold of 15% from the fiscal year 113 onwards, this measure aims to encourage businesses that do not meet these tax rate qualifications to strive for them and become eligible for tax incentives.

A review panel will be formed to assess whether applying companies meet the criteria for a critical position in the international supply chain and other qualification requirements.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs shared that the application period for Article 10-2 of the Statute for Industrial Innovation is from February 1 to May 31 this year. Companies are required to provide explanatory documents and supporting evidence, including data on products, international market share, rankings, import-export trade, and other statistics, serving as indicators for the assessment of technological innovation and critical positions.

According to the financial reports of publicly listed companies in 2022, including TSMC, MediaTek, Realtek, Novatek, Delta Electronics, Nanya Technology, Phison and Winbond, their research and development expenses and research and development density all meet the application thresholds.

(Image: TSMC)