In mid-December, Intel is set to unveil its latest Core Ultra processor, Meteor Lake. Global PC brands like Lenovo, Microsoft, DELL, HP, Acer, Asus, MSI, and Samsung are rolling out new products to capture the market. The end-users is enthusiastic, and channel feedback suggests increasing orders, marking a turning point in the PC industry,  according to CTEE.

As per the designs by PC brands, AI PCs are poised to offer AI and machine learning, capable of executing intelligent applications and tasks at the edge. This translates to a boost in user productivity and entertainment experiences, enhanced communication efficiency, and improved work quality. Furthermore, these PCs prioritize data and privacy protection.

Taiwanese partners have corresponding models entering the market, with analysts anticipating AI PCs to become the primary driver for replacement demand in the latter half of the next year. Shipment volumes are estimated to surpass 100 million units in the next two years, benefiting Taiwan’s supply chain, including PC brands Acer, Asus, MSI, and ODMs Quanta, Compal, and Inventec.

On the other hand, TSMC stands up as a major upstream player, with rising utilization rate of the 5nm and 6nm advanced processes contributed to the big orders from the Meteor Lake. TSMC is in charge of the NPU, specifically designed for AI tasks.

Intel highlights 3D Foveros as the key to advanced packaging in mixing and matching compute tiles. This aspect is managed by its advanced packaging fab in Malaysia, ensuring the most efficient energy distribution.

(Image: Intel)

The new chip plant in Kumamoto, Japan, operated by Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM), a joint venture between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), Sony, and Denso, is poised for substantial capacity growth.

JASM President Yuichi Horita revealed that after commencing production in the fourth quarter of 2024, the plant’s production capacity will gradually ramp up, targeting a full capacity of 55,000 12-inch wafers per month.

Simultaneously, TSMC aims to enhance Japan’s semiconductor supply chain and ecosystem, looking to a 60% local contribution by 2030, a significant increase from the current 25%.

Yuichi Horita unveiled the latest plan for TSMC’s Kumamoto plant during his speech at the SEMICON Japan. He emphasized that TSMC’s Kumamoto plant is actively working to establish a local supply chain and ecosystem in Japan.

The current proportion of equipment and materials sourced from Japan for the Kumamoto plant is approximately 25%. The goal is to increase this to 50% by 2026 and achieve 60% by 2030. The progress in constructing production capacity, trial production, and mass production is in line with the original plan.

Yuichi Horita stated that the current workforce at the Kumamoto facility stands at 1,700 employees. Among them, around 600 are dispatched by TSMC and Sony, with the remaining being newly recruited staff.

The production capacity of the new Kumamoto plant primarily focuses on 28/22 nanometers and 16/12 nanometers. In the initial phase, the majority of the capacity is allocated to the manufacturing of Image Signal Processor (ISP) used in CMOS image sensors, as part of Sony’s outsourcing.

The remaining capacity is dedicated to automotive parts supplier Denso, where they outsource the production of automotive microcontroller unit (MCU), with Denso reportedly able to obtain approximately 10,000 wafers per month.

Reportedly, in industry analysis, although Japan’s recent performance in foundry has not matched that of Taiwan, South Korea, and China, Japan’s semiconductor equipment supply chain is already quite mature and comprehensive.

Major players in the field, such as Nikon in lithography equipment, and Hitachi High-Tech, renowned for etching equipment and critical dimension scanning electron microscopy (CD-SEM), have established dominance.

Additionally, Japanese companies specializing in chemical solutions, gases, and materials have also secured significant positions. All of these factors make them crucial partners for supporting the development of TSMC’s Kumamoto plant in the future.

Industry source suggests that in the future, the Japanese government will not only continue to subsidize semiconductor manufacturing but also strengthen collaboration between the semiconductor industry and academia to attract more talent into the semiconductor industry.

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• [News] TSMC’s Kumamoto Plant Prepares for 2024 Mass Production with 1000+ Employees, Followed by Taiwanese Material Suppliers’ Collaboration
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)

AMD has long aspired to gain more favor for its AI chips, aiming to break into Nvidia’s stronghold in the AI chip market. Key players like Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft, who are major buyers of AI chips, also desire a diversified market with multiple AI chip suppliers to avoid vendor lock-in issues and reduce costs.

With AMD’s latest AI chip, Instinct MI300X slated for significant shipments in early 2024, these three major AI chip buyers have publicly announced their plans to place orders as they consider AMD’s solution a more cost-effective alternative.

At the AMD “Advancing AI” event on December 6th, Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Oracle declared their preference for AMD’s latest AI chip, Instinct MI300X. This marks a groundbreaking move by AI tech giants actively seeking alternatives to Nvidia’s expensive GPUs.

For applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Nvidia GPUs have played a crucial role. However, if the AMD MI300X can provide a significant cost advantage, it has the potential to impact Nvidia’s sales performance and challenge its market dominance in AI chips.

AMD’s Three Major Challenges

AMD grapples with three major challenges: convincing enterprises to consider substitutions, addressing industry standards compared to Nvidia’s CUDA software, and determining competitive GPU pricing. Lisa Su, AMD’s CEO, highlighted at the event that the new MI300X architecture features 192GB of high-performance HBM3, delivering not only faster data transfer but also meeting the demands of larger AI models. Su emphasized that such a notable performance boost translates directly into an enhanced user experience, enabling quicker responses to complex user queries.

However, AMD is currently facing critical challenges. Companies that heavily rely on Nvidia may hesitate to invest their time and resources in an alternative GPU supplier like AMD. Su believes that there is an opportunity to make efforts in persuading these AI tech giants to adopt AMD GPUs.

Another pivotal concern is that Nvidia has established its CUDA software as the industry standard, resulting in a highly loyal customer base. In response, AMD has made improvements to its ROCm software suite to effectively compete in this space. Lastly, pricing is a crucial issue, as AMD did not disclose the price of the MI300X during the event. Convincing customers to choose AMD over Nvidia, whose chips are priced around USD 40,000 each, will require substantial cost advantages in both the purchase and operation of AMD’s offerings.

The Overall Size of the AI GPU Market is Expected to Reach USD 400 Billion by 2027

AMD has already secured agreements with companies eager for high-performance GPUs to use MI300X. Meta plans to leverage MI300X GPUs for AI inference tasks like AI graphics, image editing, and AI assistants. On the other hands, Microsoft’s CTO, Kevin Scott, announced that the company will provide access to MI300X through Azure web service.

Additionally, OpenAI has decided to have its GPU programming language Triton, a dedication to machine learning algorithm development, support AMD MI300X. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) intends to introduce bare-metal instances based on AMD MI300X GPUs in its high-performance accelerated computing instances for AI.

AMD anticipates that the annual revenue from its GPUs for data centers will reach USD 2 billion by 2024. This projected figure is substantially lower than Nvidia’s most recent quarterly sales related to the data center business (i.e., over USD 14 billion, including sales unrelated to GPUs). AMD emphasizes that with the rising demand for high-end AI chips, the AI GPU market’s overall size is expected to reach USD 400 billion by 2027. This strategic focus on AI GPU products underscores AMD’s optimism about capturing a significant market share. Lisa Su is confident that AMD is poised for success in this endeavor.

(Image: AMD)

Despite the uncertainties in the semiconductor market, there is still an intense global competition in the development of advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes. TSMC as one of the key players in the foundry industry is actively advancing its next-generation 2nm process. According to market rumors, the schedule for the first tool-in at Hsinchu Baoshan Fab and Kaohsiung Fab has been established, along with a finalized production capacity plan.

CNA has reported that TSMC’s 2nm process will be deployed in the Phase 2 Expansion Area of the Baoshan Site at the Hsinchu Science Park. The first tool-in is scheduled for April 2024. Industry sources have revealed that the initial production capacity for this process will be around 30,000 wafers per month, with mass production planned for the following year.

In addition, TSMC’s fab in Kaohsiung has notified equipment suppliers that this facility is set to begin in the third quarter of 2025. According to MoneyDJ, the pilot run is planned for the end of the same year, with the aim of achieving mass production in 2026. The Kaohsiung fab will adopt the N2P process, which is an enhanced version of the 2nm process with the backside power rail technology. The initial monthly production capacity is also expected to be around 30,000 wafers.

According to previous disclosures made by TSMC during financial calls, the company has developed a backside power rail solution for the N2 process, which is particularly suitable for high-performance computing (HPC) applications. This innovative technology is expected to boost speed by 10% to 12% and increase logic density by 10% to 15%. TSMC plans to introduce the backside power rail solution to customers in the latter half of 2025, with mass production scheduled for 2026. This timetable aligns with recent rumor circulating in the supply chain.

In addition to the latest progress on the N2P process, TSMC made an official announcement at the IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) on December 12th. Specifically, the company revealed its plans to introduce a 1.4nm process as the successor to the 2nm process. As reported by Tom’s Hardware, this new process, named A14, continues the naming convention from the 2nm process (A20). Production using the A14 process is anticipated to take place between 2027 and 2028.

(Image: TSMC)

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• [News] TSMC Responds to Rumors of New 1.4nm Fab
• [News] TSMC President Highlights 2024 Semiconductor Challenges While Envisioning Abundant AI Opportunities
• [News] TSMC May Reduce Next Year’s Capital Expenditure, Affecting Orders for Equipment & Testing-Related Companies

Amid ongoing rumors about Huawei potentially establishing its own wafer fab, the company has remained relatively discreet, especially in light of the U.S. restrictions on the exportation of semiconductor technologies to China. However, recent developments suggest that there may be some truth to these rumors. According to a patent announcement from the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA), Huawei has applied for a patent related to wafer processing.

According to a report from Chinese media outlet JRJ on December 12th, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. has filed a patent application titled “Wafer Processing Device and Wafer Processing Method” under the public number CN117219552A with the CNIPA. The application date is listed as June 2022.

The patent abstract shows the embodiments disclosure related to devices and methods for wafer processing. The wafer processing device comprises a wafer stage rotated along a rotation axis, a mechanical arm with a robotic hand for handling wafers and placing them on the wafer stage, a controller, and a calibration component. The calibration component includes a grating plate, fixed relative to the wafer stage; a light source, fixed relative to the grating plate; and an imaging element, fixedly provided on the mechanical arm, and adapted to receive light emitted from the light source and transmitted through the grating plate; wherein , the controller is configured to control the mechanical arm or the adjustment device on the mechanical arm to adjust the position of the wafer based on the detection of the received light by the imaging element;wherein, when the wafer stage carries the wafer, the grating plate and the imaging element are respectively located on opposite sides of the table where the upper surface of the wafer stage is located, and the upper surface is used to carry the wafer. The devices and methods provided by embodiments of the present disclosure can improve wafer alignment efficiency and alignment accuracy.

Earlier reports have suggested that Huawei is involved in the construction of wafer fabs in China. According to a news report from Bloomberg, Huawei is actively contributing to the expansion of at least three wafer fabs in the country. In its pursuit of building a self-sustaining semiconductor network, Huawei has acquired manufacturing facilities from Jinhua Integrated Circuit (JHICC) and Qingdao Aristocrat (Suppoly). Additionally, the company has assisted in the establishment of production facilities operated by Pengxinwei (PXW) and Shenzhen Pengsheng Technology (PST). It is worth noting that JHICC and PXW face challenges in selling their products to multinational corporations and encounter difficulties in procuring advanced wafer manufacturing equipment due to being blacklisted by the U.S. government.

(Image: Huawei)

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