According to a news report from IJIWEI, sources have revealed that NVIDIA has placed urgent orders with TSMC for the production of AI GPU destined for China. These orders fall under the category of “Super Hot Run” (SHR), with plans to commence fulfillment in the first quarter of 2024.

Respond to the United States implementing stricter export controls on the Chinese semiconductor industry, sources stated in the report indicate that NVIDIA plans to provide a new “specialized” AI chip to China by lowering specifications, replacing the export-restricted H800, A800, and L40S series.

Insiders suggest that NVIDIA intends to resume supplying the RTX 4090 chip to China in January of next year but also release a modified version later to comply with U.S. export restrictions. 

On the other hand, NVIDIA continues to increase its orders with TSMC. This move aims to secure TSMC’s manufacturing capacity to meet the demand for the H100. However, due to limitations in CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) production capacity, the H100 GPU is currently facing severe shortages.

It is noted that following NVIDIA, Intel and AMD are also expected to tailor AI chips for China. TSMC, as the primary pure-play foundry partner for these AI chip suppliers, will continue to enjoy a competitive advantage.

According to sources from semiconductor equipment manufacturers, despite TSMC’s efforts to increase CoWoS production capacity, the foundry still cannot meet the growing demand for NVIDIA GPUs. Additionally, the MI300 chip that was recently launched by AMD is also competing for the foundry industry’s production capacity.

Insiders note that TSMC’s ability to expand CoWoS production capacity is limited, with delays in equipment replacement speed, machine installation speed, and labor deployment. The new capacity is expected to be ready by the second quarter of 2024.

Equipment is identified as one of the key variables affecting TSMC’s expansion of CoWoS production capacity. Unexpected impacts on production and delivery times from Japanese equipment supplier Shibaura have delayed the development and installation of new capacity across TSMC’s production lines, including those in Longtan and Zhunan.

TSMC Chairman Mark Liu mentioned in a press conference in September that the shortage of CoWoS packaging capacity at TSMC is temporary, and it will be addressed through capacity expansion within the next year and a half to meet the growing demand.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Read more

• [News] TSMC’s CoWoS Demand Surges from NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Monthly Capacity Up 120% in 2024

As the Japanese government injects substantial funds to revitalize its semiconductor industry, the dynamics of the Japanese semiconductor industry have been a global focus. TrendForce, during this year’s SEMICON Japan, organized its first overseas industry-focused information seminar, delving into the global semiconductor, optoelectronics, and electric vehicle industries, with a particular focus on the dynamics and strategies of the Japanese market and companies. The event attracted over a hundred participants from Japanese technology industry.

The seminar, opened by TrendForce CEO Kevin Lin, under the theme of “the era of challenges,” served as a commentary on the future development of the technology industry in the coming years. Lin pointed out that global technological industries, influenced by geopolitical factors, are experiencing a trend of supply chain restructuring. He also highlighted China’s expansion in the semiconductor, electric vehicle, and downstream supply chains, reshaping the global supply chain landscape—an aspect requiring global attention.

During the seminar, TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Ken Kuo, presented an analysis of the global memory and AI server market. He noted that after a year and a half of adjustments, prices in the DRAM and NAND markets started to rise across the board in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by robust growth in AI. This trend is expected to continue into the next year.

Beyond AI servers, the introduction of technologies such as Microsoft’s Copilot, as well as AI PCs and AI smartphones, is poised to be a growth driver next year. In terms of AI chip shipments, NVIDIA is projected to maintain its dominance, with an estimated 1.5 million units shipped this year and an anticipated 100% growth next year.

The semiconductor foundry market is expected to recover in 2024.

The recovery of the semiconductor market in 2024 was a major focus for participants. TrendForce’s analyst Joanne Chiao mentioned that as supply chain inventory pressures gradually ease, the semiconductor foundry industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2024, driven by TSMC’s advanced processes and inventory replenishment momentum, with a projected growth of 7%.

In light of geopolitics, , semiconductor foundry supply chains are undergoing restructuring. In 2023, Taiwan is expected to account for approximately 46% of global semiconductor foundry capacity, followed by China at 26%, South Korea at 12%, the United States at 6%, and Japan at 2%. With the drive from subsidy policies in China and the United States to increase local production capacity, by 2027, Taiwan and South Korea’s production capacity shares are expected to converge to 41% and 10%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Japan is actively implementing subsidy policies to support local company Rapidus and attract Taiwan’s TSMC and PSMC to establish facilities, aiming to secure a place in the semiconductor foundry market.

The introduction of Apple Watch with Micro LED is expected in 2026, with estimated display costs 2.5-3 times higher than OLED.

TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Eric Chiou, analyzed Apple’s progress in adopting new display technologies during the display technology session. He mentioned that the next-generation Apple Watch panel would use Micro LED as the display technology, with a size larger than the current Apple Watch Ultra at 2.12 inches.

The product will have two key suppliers: German LED giant ams OSRAM, which will exclusively supply Micro LED chips smaller than 10x10um, and South Korean panel manufacturer LG Display, responsible for the chip mass transfer engineering in addition to providing LTPO glass backplates.

Chiou pointed out that the adoption of small-sized chips inherently helps compress costs. Considering Apple’s strong bargaining power in the supply chain, he estimated that when the product is launched in 2026, the cost of the Micro LED display panel could be controlled below $120, equivalent to 2.5 to 3 times the current price of OLED panels—a reasonable range for a new technology.

Moreover, with Apple’s outstanding ability to integrate new technologies and specifications, there is an expectation of achieving million-unit-level shipments in the first year of launch, injecting abundant vitality into the demand for Micro LED chips and the overall industry’s development.

China’s EV expansion brings impact to the global automotive industry.

In 2023, China became the world’s primary exporter of automobiles, prompting the global automotive industry to recognize that competition with Chinese automakers will extend from the domestic market to the global market. TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen highlighted in her speech that the most significant threat to international automakers is China’s advantage in EV( including BEV, PHV, FCV).

She emphasized that due to China’s early development of EVs, it has established a complete supply chain, particularly in the proactive development of power battery production capacity and upstream materials. EVs account for over a quarter of China’s passenger car exports.

On the other hands, with a nearly 60% market share in the Southeast Asian market, Chinese automakers gradually threaten Japanese automakers’ long-term dominance in the Southeast Asian automotive market.

She believes that as Chinese automakers expand into the international market, Japanese automakers should not only accelerate the development of new energy vehicles but also leverage their long-accumulated brand value and well-established maintenance systems as core competitive advantages. Additionally, maintaining leadership positions in semiconductor and chemical materials is a strategy for sustained investment to consolidate their influence in the automotive industry.

According to a news report from UDN, despite U.S. restrictions on the exportation of technologies related to advanced semiconductor processes, China is fortifying its independent chip development capabilities.

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a Chinese DRAM chip manufacturer, presented a paper at the 69th IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) in San Francisco, showcasing a Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology applicable to cutting-edge 3nm chips.

According to an article from South China Morning Post, while CXMT has not yet released sample products, the evidence of the company’s next-generation memory production has caught the attention of industry analysts. This is noteworthy because the design of such chips typically involves technology subject to U.S. export restrictions.

Frederick Chen, a memory expert at Winbond Electronics, a Taiwan-based company, said the evidence of progress by CXMT is “impressive”, as it shows that the Chinese company is not far away from state-of-the-art research and products. “It’s significant because Samsung Electronics is trying to do the same.” Chen said.

Regarding this matter, CXMT has maintained a relatively low profile. Reportedly, in a statement to the South China Morning Post on Wednesday, CXMT stated that the paper “describes fundamental research related to DRAM structure and the feasibility of 4F2 design” and “it has nothing to do with CXMT’s current production processes.” This may have implied that the conceptual design is still distant from becoming a market-ready product.

“Any accusation that CXMT is violating US sanctions or export controls is completely inaccurate,” the company’s export control experts said. “We firmly believe that the free flow of ideas that IEDM seeks to foster is essential for the industry’s innovation and development.”

At the end of this November, CXMT released China’s first LPDDR5 chip, marking the entry of Chinese manufacturers into the DDR5 competition and narrowing the technological gap with leading memory suppliers such as South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix.

(Photo credit: CXMT)

After a month of negotiations, the German government successfully resolved the budget deadlock today. Officials have confirmed that subsidies for the construction of TSMC’s and Intel’s fabs will remain unchanged. They stress that these investments will benefit the entire country.

As reported by CNA, on November 15th, the German Federal Constitutional Court declared the federal government’s redirection of the Covid pandemic emergency budget to the “Climate and Transformation Fund” unconstitutional. This fund includes subsidies for TSMC and Intel, raising concerns about potential deviations from Germany’s commitments and introducing uncertainties to the construction plans.

After a month of intense negotiations among Germany’s three ruling parties, they reached an agreement before the Christmas holiday, putting an end to the budget deadlock. Michael Kellner, Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, confirmed on December 13th local time that subsidies for the construction of TSMC’s and Intel’s fabs remain unchanged.

TSMC is planning to establish its first European production base in Dresden, the capital of the German state Saxony, with an investment exceeding EUR 10 billion. The German government has committed to a EUR 5 billion subsidy. Meanwhile, Intel aims to invest EUR 30 billion in Magdeburg and is expected to receive a EUR 9.9 billion subsidy.

In an interview with DPA on December 13th, Kellner emphasized that these investments will ensure future economic strength, benefiting the entire country.

The federal government’s confirmation of providing subsidies for fab construction brought relief to local leaders. Martin Dulig, Economic Minister of Saxony, noted that as time dragged on, trust was at risk of diminishing. He expressed great satisfaction with the federal government’s decision today.

Dulig underscored that for Saxony and Europe, TSMC’s fab establishment can reduce dependence on Asia and the United States, benefiting the local industry chain and small and medium-sized enterprises. This holds significant strategic importance.

“It is both good and important that the federal government has reached an agreement,” Bertram Kawlath, the vice president of the VDMA, an industry association of mechanical engineers in Germany, said in a statement. “The weeks of uncertainty are now over, clearing the way for important investments,” he said.

(Image: TSMC)

Micron, the American memory giant, is gearing up to initiate the production of state-of-the-art “1γ” DRAM at its Hiroshima fab in Japan, starting in 2025. Concurrently, there are plans to manufacture High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) at the same fab, tailored for the rising demand for generative AI applications.

According to a report from Nikkei Asia on December 13th, Joshua Lee, VP at Micron Memory Japan, made this announcement during the event SEMICON Japan 2023. Lee highlighted that the Hiroshima fab is slated to manufacture DRAM with the most advanced “1γ” process by 2025. He also pointed out that Micron is also going to be the first semiconductor company to introduce Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment to Japan.

In addition to this, Lee shared insights into Micron’s intentions to produce HBM at the Hiroshima fab, which is widely applied for generative AI applications. He stated that Japan’s strong semiconductor ecosystem will be a key driving force behind Micron’s progress. Furthermore, he emphasized that collaboration is pivotal for Japan to establish itself as a global leader in the semiconductor supply chain.

Earlier In October, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) of Japan announced a substantial subsidy of JPY 192 billion for Micron’s Hiroshima fab. Micron has recently declared a comprehensive investment plan of JPY 500 billion in Japan over the next few years, encompassing the Hiroshima fab.

Micron has been actively developing its DRAM manufacturing operations in Japan and Taiwan. Donghui Lu, Corporate VP of Micron Taiwan, revealed in a September interview with the UDN News that approximately 65% of Micron’s DRAM output originates from Taiwan. Regarding the migration to the 1β process, mass production began at Micron Japan last year, and Micron Taiwan has also commenced mass production this year. As for the more advanced 1γ process, production is expected to take place in both Taiwan and Japan by 2025.

TrendForce’s analysis has also revealed that Micron is leveraging its 1β nm technology to produce HBM3e in a bid to gain a competitive edge over Korean suppliers. Its front-end manufacturing is strategically positioned in Japan, aligning with expansion plans for 1β nm capacity.

Additionally, Micron has established a backend factory in Taiwan to meet surging HBM demands driven by the AI era. TrendForce anticipates that HBM products will substantially boost the revenue of DRAM suppliers in 2024.

(Image: Micron)

Explore more

• [News] Memory Titans Vie for Control in HBM Tech, Who Will Shape the Next-Gen?
• [News] Memory Giants Samsung & Micron Actively Embrace DDR5 and HBM as Favorable Choices