According to sources cited by Reuters,  TSMC is reportedly considering plans to establish a production line for its CoWoS technology in Japan. However, TSMC has yet to make any further decisions, and they have declined to comment on the matter.

CoWoS is an advanced packaging technology that stacks chips to enhance computing power, reduce energy consumption, and save space. Currently, TSMC’s CoWoS production capacity is entirely located in Taiwan.

With the booming development of artificial intelligence, global demand for advanced semiconductor packaging has surged, prompting chip suppliers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to strengthen their advanced packaging capabilities.

Previously, TSMC’s CEO, C.C. Wei, stated that the company plans to double its CoWoS output by the end of 2024 and further increase it in 2025. With TSMC recently completing the first phase of construction for its Kumamoto fab in Japan and announcing plans for the second phase, which will involve collaboration with Japanese companies SONY Semiconductor Solutions and Toyota Motor Corporation, with a total investment exceeding USD 20 billion and utilizing 6/7-nanometer advanced processes.

However, Joanne Chiao, an analyst at market research firm TrendForce, suggests that if TSMC establishes advanced packaging capacity in Japan, it may face limitations in scale. It remains unclear how much demand there is in Japan for CoWoS packaging, but most of TSMC’s CoWoS customers are currently in the United States.

Additionally, sources cited by Reuters’ report indicate that TSMC’s competitor, Intel, is also considering establishing an advanced packaging research facility in Japan to deepen ties with local chip supply chain companies.

Meanwhile, Samsung, another competitor of TSMC, is setting up advanced packaging research facilities in Yokohama, Japan, with government support. Furthermore, Samsung is in discussions with Japanese and other companies regarding material procurement, preparing to launch its packaging technology similar to that used by SK Hynix.

Regarding the development of the semiconductor industry in Japan, as mentioned in a previous report from TrendForce, Japan’s resurgence in the semiconductor arena is palpable, with the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry fostering multi-faceted collaborations with the private sector. With a favorable exchange rate policy aiding factory construction and investments, the future looks bright for exports.

However, the looming shortage of semiconductor talent in Japan is a concern. In response, there are generous subsidy programs for talent development. Japan is strategically positioning itself to reclaim its former glory in the world of semiconductors.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

The Executive Yuan and TSMC have reportedly reached a consensus on the investment project for the new advanced packaging plant at the TSMC Science Park in Chiayi. According to a report from Economic Daily News, six new plant sites will be allocated to TSMC in the Science Park, two more than originally anticipated, with a total investment exceeding NTD 500 billion. The expansion is expected to increase CoWoS advanced packaging capacity and to be announced to the public in early April.

TSMC has refrained from commenting on the matter. Regarding the news, the Executive Yuan actively coordinated with TSMC for the establishment of the advanced packaging plant in the Chiayi Science Park located in Taibao. The related environmental assessments and water and electricity facilities have been processed, with construction expected to commence in April, indirectly confirming the rumors.

As per sources cited by the report, Chiayi Science Park is poised to become a new hub for TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity. Among the six new scheduled plants, construction will begin on two this year, aligning with the Executive Yuan’s statement of construction commencement in April.

TSMC’s extensive expansion is primarily driven by the high demand for advanced packaging. For instance,  in the case of the NVIDIA H100, after integrating components via CoWoS, each wafer yields approximately 28 chips. However, for the upcoming B100, with increased volume and integration, the yield per wafer drops to just 16 chips.

On the other hand, TSMC’s advanced processes, per a previous report from Commercial Times, remained fully utilized, with capacity utilization exceeding 90% in February, driven by sustained AI demand. The same report also noted that NVIDIA’s orders to TSMC are robust, pushing TSMC’s 3 and 4-nanometer production capacity to nearly full utilization.

As each new generation of NVIDIA’s AI chips integrates CoWoS, chip output is halved, yet demand for AI servers continues to soar. With terminal demand skyrocketing while chip output dwindles, there’s a “cliff-like gap” in CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. TSMC must ramp up CoWoS production swiftly to ensure uninterrupted customer supply.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

“It is not the shortage of AI chips, it is the shortage of our CoWoS capacity,” replied TSMC Chairman Mark Liu during an interview in September last year, propelling this technology that TSMC had quietly cultivated for over a decade into a global spotlight.

As per a report from TechNews, the hardware demand sparked by generative AI has also led to “advanced packaging” becoming not only a hot keyword pursued by global investors but also a prominent feature of the semiconductor industry. From foundries and memory manufacturers to OASTs, all are actively involved in the research and capacity expansion of advanced packaging technologies.

TSMC, the leading force in the advanced packaging market, has repeatedly emphasized its efforts to expand capacity during its earnings call, including capacity expansions in Zhunan and Hsinchu, and even the possibility of constructing advanced packaging facilities in Chiayi.

Intel’s strategic moves also underscore its emphasis on the development of advanced packaging. Intel’s new plant completed in Penang, Malaysia in 2023 is aimed at establishing advanced packaging capacity.

Leading packaging and testing company, ASE Technology Holding, has also actively participated in the competition for advanced packaging. Apart from its subsidiary, Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), which is already a supplier for the backend packaging of CoWoS, ASE Technology Holding is also expanding advanced packaging capacity at its facility in Kaohsiung.

Memory manufacturers are also aggressively ramping up their advanced packaging capacity. SK Hynix, which exclusively supplies HBM for NVIDIA AI chips, recently announced plans to invest USD 1 billion in the development of advanced packaging. They view advanced packaging as the “future focus of semiconductor development for the next 50 years.

Advanced Packaging: Over a Decade of Development

In fact, advanced packaging is not a new concept. Tracing the history of packaging technology, the year 2000 undoubtedly marked a turning point. From this year onwards, packaging technology shifted from traditional wire bonding and flip-chip methods to “wafer-level packaging,” where most or all packaging and testing processes are conducted on the wafer itself.

The 2.5D packaging, which gained significant attention after 2023, actually emerged as early as 2010. However, due to cost concerns, the number of manufacturers adopting this technology was relatively limited, with a focus on high-performance computing chips.

Chiang Shang-yi, the Chief Strategy Officer of Foxconn Semiconductor, recalled the initial lack of interest in CoWoS technology, which even led to him being regarded as a “joke” within the company( TSMC) for proposing advanced packaging. He also revealed that the first company willing to adopt the costly CoWoS technology was actually Huawei.

▲ Semiconductor Packaging Technology Evolution compiled by McKinsey, Accelerated Technological Evolution after 2000 (Source: McKinsey)

Compared to 2D packaging technology, 2.5D packaging involves placing an intermediate layer between the chip and the IC substrate and stacking different chips in parallel. TSMC’s CoWoS has become synonymous with 2.5D packaging, where a silicon interposer layer is inserted between the chip and the SiP substrate, and metal layers are connected using Through-Silicon Vias (TSVs) to overcome the density limitations of SiP substrates, which previously restricted the number of chips.

Despite TSMC’s dominance, Intel, with its extensive technical expertise in CPU packaging, cannot be underestimated. In the 2.5D packaging battlefield, Intel employs EMIB technology as its strategy. Unlike CoWoS, EMIB does not utilize a silicon interposer layer.

Instead, its key feature lies in the “Silicon Bridge,” buried within the packaging substrate, which connects the bare dies. Intel believes that EMIB offers cost advantages compared to solutions using large silicon interposer layers.

In recent years, Samsung, which has been actively cultivating the semiconductor foundry market, has also ventured into the 2.5D packaging arena. Their proprietary I-Cube technology has traditionally targeted applications in High-Performance Computing (HPC) chips. When Samsung introduced I-Cube4 in 2021, it emphasized the integration of multiple logic dies and HBM placed on a silicon interposer layer, enabling heterogeneous integration into a single chip.

As Moore’s Law approaches its limits and the massive computational demands triggered by generative AI continue to surge, coupled with the trend towards lighter, thinner, and smaller end products, chips are inevitably evolving towards more transistors, greater computational power, and lower power consumption performance.

Therefore, the transition of packaging technology from 2.5D to 3D is undoubtedly an inevitable development.

The difference between 3D and 2.5D packaging lies in the stacking method. In 2.5D packaging, chips are stacked parallelly on an intermediate layer, while in 3D packaging, chips are stacked vertically in a three-dimensional manner.

The advantage of 3D packaging lies in its ability to create more space for transistors within a chip through stacking, shorten the distance between different bare dies significantly, enhance transmission efficiency, and reduce power consumption during transmission.

TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Racing for 3D Packaging Technology

TSMC’s positioning in 3D IC technology is undeniable. Its SoIC technology adopts the wafer-to-wafer bonding technique. SoIC integrates homogeneous and heterogeneous small dies into a single chip, with smaller dimensions and a thinner profile. It can be integrated into 2.5D CoWoS or InFO. From an external perspective, SoIC resembles a universal SoC chip but integrates various functions heterogeneously.

Intel’s layout in 3D packaging revolves around its 3D Foveros technology. Structurally, the bottom layer comprises a packaging substrate, with a bottom wafer placed on top serving as an intermediate layer. Within this intermediate layer, numerous TSVs (Through-Silicon Vias) are present, facilitating connections between the upper chips, modules, and other parts of the system to achieve transmission purposes.

Samsung’s X-Cube 3D packaging technology utilizes TSV processes. Currently, Samsung’s X-Cube test chips can stack the SRAM layer on top of the logic layer, interconnected via TSVs, employing its 7nm EUV process technology.

TSMC’s Comprehensive Ecosystem Strategy

Currently dominating the advanced packaging market, thanks to its acquisition of large contracts for manufacturing NVIDIA AI chips, TSMC is not only continuing to develop more advanced packaging technologies but is also actively promoting its 3D Fabric platform.

In addition to incorporating the three key packaging technologies CoWoS, InFo, and SoIC, this platform has expanded into an industry alliance. It includes participation from EDA, IP, DCA/VCA, memory, packaging and testing suppliers, as well as substrate and testing vendors. The goal is to create a complete 3D Fabric ecosystem, strengthen innovation, and enhance customer adoption willingness.

This alliance has attracted active participation from heavyweight players in the semiconductor upstream supply chain. Even companies traditionally seen as competitors in the packaging and testing sector, such as Amkor, ASE Technology Holding, and Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), are members. The comprehensive supply chain has become a significant advantage for TSMC in providing advanced packaging contract manufacturing services.

▲ TSMC’s 3D Fabric Alliance members, including major players from EDA to packaging and testing companies. (Image Source: TSMC)

In comparison, Intel, despite its robust technological expertise developed over many years and its proposition to independently provide wafer manufacturing or testing services, faces a disadvantage in expanding its market share in advanced packaging due to its lack of experience in the foundry market.

On the other hand, Samsung, compared to TSMC, is constrained by its yield issues in advanced processes. This limitation leads IC design companies to prioritize foundries with more stable yields when considering outsourcing comprehensive manufacturing services.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from the South Korean newspaper “Korea Joongang Daily,” following Micron’s initiation of mass production of the latest high-bandwidth memory HBM3e in February 2024, it has recently secured an order from NVIDIA for the H200 AI GPU. It is understood that NVIDIA’s upcoming H200 processor will utilize the latest HBM3e, which are more powerful than the HBM3 used in the H100 processor.

The same report further indicates that Micron secured the H200 order due to its adoption of 1b nanometer technology in its HBM3e, which is equivalent to the 12-nanometer technology used by SK Hynix in producing HBM. In contrast, Samsung Electronics currently employs 1a nanometer technology, which is equivalent to 14-nanometer technology, reportedly lagging behind Micron and SK Hynix.

The report from Commercial Times indicates that Micron’s ability to secure the NVIDIA order for H200 is attributed to the chip’s outstanding performance, energy efficiency, and seamless scalability.

As per a previous report from TrendForce, starting in 2024, the market’s attention will shift from HBM3 to HBM3e, with expectations for a gradual ramp-up in production through the second half of the year, positioning HBM3e as the new mainstream in the HBM market.

TrendForce reports that SK Hynix led the way with its HBM3e validation in the first quarter, closely followed by Micron, which plans to start distributing its HBM3e products toward the end of the first quarter, in alignment with NVIDIA’s planned H200 deployment by the end of the second quarter.

Samsung, slightly behind in sample submissions, is expected to complete its HBM3e validation by the end of the first quarter, with shipments rolling out in the second quarter. With Samsung having already made significant strides in HBM3 and its HBM3e validation expected to be completed soon, the company is poised to significantly narrow the market share gap with SK Hynix by the end of the year, reshaping the competitive dynamics in the HBM market.

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(Photo credit: Micron)

According to a report by the South Korean news outlet The Chosun Daily, Samsung Electronics’ memory business has managed to endure the market downturn from last year. Recently, its strategy of reducing production has finally paid off, driving up chip prices.

Reports suggest that in the first quarter of this year, Samsung plans to raise NAND Flash chip prices by up to 20%, aiming to restore profitability to its memory chip business.

The report quotes a semiconductor industry source as saying, “The first-quarter price negotiations between major memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and their customers have not yet been concluded. However, customers are rushing to secure supplies as the price of NAND flash has been steadily increasing, and fears spread that NAND flash cuts will continue this year.”

As per the report citing sources, Samsung Electronics will renegotiate prices with major mobile, PC, and server customers in March and April this year. It is expected to push for a price increase of 15 to 20%.

As per a report from Commercial Times, the global economic downturn last year led to an oversupply of memory and a sharp decline in prices, resulting in severe losses for Samsung and SK Hynix’s memory businesses. Samsung’s memory division experienced its first-ever losses last year, dragging down the company’s overall profits to a new low.

Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, the three major players in the memory industry, began significant production cuts in the second half of last year, finally causing DRAM chip prices to rebound. However, the NAND Flash chip market is crowded with many manufacturers, including not only the three major players but also Japanese Kioxia and American Western Digital, leading to less significant effects from the production cuts.

Last year, Samsung’s NAND Flash chip business incurred operating losses of KRW 11 trillion (approximately USD 8.3 billion), while SK Hynix’s NAND Flash chip business also faced operating losses of 8 trillion Korean won. Since the second half of last year, the aforementioned companies have halved their production capacities, finally pushing NAND Flash prices up.

Per TrendForce’s data, NAND flash prices have increased for five consecutive months. TrendForce research previously indicated that despite facing a traditional low-demand season, buyers are continuing to increase their purchases of NAND Flash products to establish safe inventory levels. In response, suppliers, aiming to minimize losses are pushing for higher prices, leading to an estimated 15–20% increase in NAND Flash contract prices in 1Q24.

Currently, the NAND Flash market is still dominated by the five major manufacturers, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for the lion’s share.

Samsung still firmly held the top position in the NAND Flash market, with its market share increasing from 31.4% in the previous quarter to 36.6%; next was SK Group, with its market share increasing from 20.2% in the previous quarter to 21.6%.

Following them were Western Digital, whose market share decreased from 16.9% in the previous quarter to 14.5%, Kioxia, whose market share decreased from 14.5% in the previous quarter to 12.6%, and Micron, whose market share decreased from 12.5% in the previous quarter to 9.9%.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)