Intel collaborates with Foxconn, Microloops, and Inventec to introduce a new cooling technology. Boasting superior performance compared to conventional liquid cooling, this initiative, alongside Gigabyte and Wiwynn, aims to enter the server immersion liquid cooling technology market, positioning themselves for potential orders.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Intel Teams Up with Taiwanese Manufacturers to Pave the Way for Liquid Cooling Technologies, Targeting Immersive Water-Cooled AI Server Orders

Intel, in collaboration with Foxconn, Microloops, and Inventec, introduces a brand new Liquid Cooling solution. This technology, capable of managing Thermal Design Power (TDP) exceeding 1500W, utilizes the principles of physical pressurization to facilitate rapid liquid flow for efficient heat dissipation.

With a threefold improvement in performance over conventional liquid cooling, the liquid cooling plate circulates water to dissipate heat. Future developments include non-conductive liquid solutions to mitigate leakage risks.

Simultaneously, Gigabyte’s subsidiary, GIGA Computing Technology, partners with liquid cooling experts CoolIT and Motivair to unveil cutting-edge liquid cooling solutions. The strategic focus on liquid and immersive liquid cooling aims to enhance the sustainability and energy efficiency of data centers.

Wiwynn, also keenly interested in liquid cooling technology, has secured substantial orders from Middle Eastern clients by prioritizing two-phase immersion cooling technology, with rumors suggesting the order’s value is approximately USD 4 billion.

The advantages of two-phase cooling technology include fanless operation, rapid heat dissipation, noiseless and vibration-free performance, and higher cooling energy efficiency. Moreover, it is less susceptible to environmental influences, ensuring normal usage.

On the other hand, Taiwanese manufacturers, AURAS Technology and AVC (Asia Vital Components), are actively developing and mass-producing open-loop liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling technologies.

Due to the novelty of immersion cooling technology, the current market demand visibility is relatively low. However, major Taiwanese contract manufacturers are increasingly focusing on the technical development and introduction of immersion cooling solutions. This is primarily driven by the growing demand for high-end AI servers, which require efficient computation and often generate high power consumption.

At present, only immersion liquid cooling can provide a cooling solution surpassing 1500W, meeting the requirements of large-scale data centers. Consequently, numerous Taiwanese manufacturers are actively engaging in the development of this technology to seize the opportunities presented by the initial wave of immersion liquid cooling products.

2. Short-Term Dominance of 3D VC Air Cooling and Open Liquid Cooling Technologies in Heat Dissipation Solutions

Due to the need for adjustments in facility structure, including the layout of cooling spaces, immersion liquid cooling comes with higher construction costs. Cases of immersion liquid cooling in large-scale data centers are also relatively rare.

In consideration of cost, many enterprise users still opt for 3D VC (Vapor Chamber) air cooling technology to establish their data centers, aiming to save on the significant costs associated with facility modifications.

3D VC air cooling and open liquid cooling technologies are the current primary options for heat dissipation solutions. The retrofitting cost for 3D VC is twice that of traditional cooling modes, while the cost for liquid cooling solutions can be up to 10 times higher than traditional modes.

Therefore, enterprise users need to tailor their server deployments based on specific requirements, taking into account the Thermal Design Power (TDP) to choose the corresponding heat dissipation solution.

For instance, AI servers with power consumption ranging from 1000 to 1500W can utilize open liquid cooling solutions, while those below 1000W may adopt the 3D VC cooling approach.

With the target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, both China and Europe impose restrictions on the Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of data centers, limiting it to no higher than 1.4.

In anticipation of this, server OEMs and cooling solution providers are expected to increase the development and offerings of liquid and immersive liquid cooling products. This trend aims to provide data centers with customized solutions and services, aligning with the evolving energy efficiency requirements.

Source to TrendForce, the latest solar materials price revealed that Polysilicon prices are declining due to decreased orders and increased supply; Wafer prices remain stable but face potential pressure.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 65/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 63/KG, and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 68/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, orders took a hit this week, and collectively signing orders within a centralized period has ceased. Observing the price trends, major manufacturers are experiencing a decline in new orders, causing a further narrowing of the transaction prices for both N-type and P-type polysilicon.

Looking at the supply side, the new production capacity of leading polysilicon manufacturers is set to come online this month, contributing to an uptick in output. Consequently, the polysilicon supply will continue to outpace demand, leading to a further increase in polysilicon inventory, which has now reached the range of 90,000 to 120,000 tons this week. Shifting the focus to the downstream industrial chain, the wafer inventory has reverted to a reasonable level, and there’s a slight uptick in the activation rate of crystal-pulling manufacturers.

This has resulted in an increased demand for polysilicon. However, this heightened demand is insufficient to counterbalance the marginal increase in polysilicon supply. In summary, the price of polysilicon is on a downward trajectory, and with new production capacities slated to come online by year-end, the short-term supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to be rectified.

Compounding this, the absence of concrete demand from customers indicates an anticipated further dip in polysilicon prices. The inventory of N-type polysilicon is expanding, intensifying pressure on upstream raw materials. Consequently, the support for N-type polysilicon prices is diminishing, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon is expected to shrink.

• Wafer

The prices of wafers have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while the G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and the M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, there are indications that specialized polysilicon manufacturers may ramp up their operating rates, primarily due to a reduction in wafer inventory. The current inventory of wafers has dwindled to the range of 1.4-1.6 billion pieces, bringing substantial relief to wafer manufacturers from inventory pressures. Switching to the demand side, the pressure on cell demand persists, with cell inventory remaining unconsumed.

Consequently, some cell manufacturers are contemplating production cuts to mitigate potential future losses. This slowdown in demand from cell manufacturers is causing a sluggishness in the demand for wafers. Currently, both wafer and cell prices are hovering close to their production costs, empowering manufacturers on both fronts to engage in assertive bargaining. As a result, it is anticipated that price negotiations will reach a stalemate in the short term.

In summary, wafer prices have held steady this week, but it’s crucial to remain vigilant as wafer prices might face renewed pressure. This could be triggered by a decline in upstream raw material prices and the persistent lack of positive momentum in downstream demand.

• Cell

Cell prices have been different with the G12 cell price rebounding and other types remaining stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while the G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of the M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, the overall cell inventory is proving challenging to deplete due to the persistently sluggish downstream demand. This situation is exerting increased pressure on cell inventory levels. Additionally, faced with the challenge of low cell prices, a portion of the high-cost P-type cell production capacity has been gradually scaled back. If prices continue to decline in the future, this segment of production capacity may eventually phase out.

This underscores the evolving landscape of P-type and N-type cell technologies, prompting cell manufacturers to reassess how they manage the older production capacity of P-type cells. Shifting to the demand side, module inventory remains elevated, yet overseas customer demand remains weak even during the peak season. In summary, cell prices have remained stable this week. With the support from the delivery of orders this month, there is intense demand for 210mm P-type cells, leading to a rebound in their prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.06/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.08/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.07/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W.

On the supply side, there’s a divergence in production schedules among module manufacturers. First-tier manufacturers are maintaining stable delivery schedules with sufficient orders, while second and third-tier manufacturers are compelled to scale back production to avert losses. Additionally, it’s crucial to monitor the impact of backhaul orders’ sale prices on domestic module prices. Turning to the demand side, overseas module inventory remains elevated, coupled with sluggish purchasing demand.

The customer demand for modules is heading into the off-season. Furthermore, the demand for distributed PV installations is struggling to turn positive due to overall weak demand. Faced with weak downstream demand, module manufacturers are adopting a strategy of lowering prices to facilitate more shipments, driven by the imperative to clear inventory by year-end. In summary, module prices are anticipated to experience a slight decline this week.

Read more:

• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update
• PV Materials Price in Early November

In recent years, the tech industry has pivoted around two keywords, low carbonization and digitization, marking significant areas of growth. Semiconductor companies are eagerly investing and acquiring ventures, particularly in response to the emerging new energy industry chain driven by the low-carbon trend.

At the recent Infineon OktoberTech™ event, David Poon, Senior Vice President and President of Greater China Region at Infineon, outlined the company’s ambitious goals. By the end of 2030, Infineon aims to secure a 30% market share in the SiC market, targeting an annual revenue exceeding USD 7.6 billion. As per a report from 21jingji, Infineon also holds a positive outlook on the overall market growth of third-generation semiconductors.

The current landscape sees widespread application of third-generation semiconductors like SiC and GaN in new energy vehicles, charging stations, energy storage, and other products. Major industry players are actively entering this dynamic market. As a dominant force in power semiconductors, Infineon not only announced SiC expansion plans earlier this year but also acquired GaN Systems in October.

Speaking of recent GaN acquisition, Poon expressed during an interview that the collaboration between the two companies would significantly propel Infineon’s development. They believe that GaN has reached a turning point, extending its applications beyond chargers to encompass diverse fields like energy storage, heralding a phase of substantial growth. A new round of competition is unfolding within the realms of the new energy field and the industrial ecosystem.

New Energy and Digitization as Growth Drivers

In terms of performance, Infineon achieved remarkable double-digit growth in the past year. According to the full-year financial report for the 2023 fiscal year (ending September 30, 2023), the company’s revenue reached USD 17.868 billion marking a 15% YoY increase, while profits surged by 30% to USD 4.819 billion.

Jochen Hanebeck, CEO of Infineon, acknowledged the company’s record-breaking revenue and profits in the 2023 fiscal year, despite acknowledging the persisting challenges in the operating environment.

On one hand, there’s a persistent structural growth momentum in renewable energy, electric vehicles (particularly in China), and the micro controller sector within the automotive industry. On the other hand, demand for applications in consumer goods, communications, computing, and the IoT is currently experiencing a temporary lull. Infineon anticipates continued revenue growth in the 2024 fiscal year, although the pace of growth is expected to moderate. The company is actively responding to market conditions, seizing opportunities for structural growth.

The new energy and digitization markets emerge as the new growth engines targeted by leading semiconductor companies like Infineon. With China at the forefront of the industry’s new landscape, Infineon is keen on tapping into new opportunities in the Chinese market.

In an interview, Poon remarked, “Looking at low carbonization, firstly, the growth in new energy vehicles is substantial. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), from January to September 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.313 million and 6.278 million units, respectively, with YoY increases of 33.7% and 37.5%. The semiconductor value in an electric vehicle has increased by about USD 950 compared to a traditional fuel vehicle, making this a significant driving force.”

He further emphasized, “The amounts of domestic new energy vehicle shipments and exports are robust. Additionally, the proliferation of charging stations in the country indicates clear prospects for this market. In other areas of new energy, such as photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage, these are also growth drivers we are closely monitoring.”

New energy vehicles and renewable energy have evolved into the foundational pillars of the burgeoning low-carbon mega-industry. Simultaneously, within the digitization market, Infineon offers solutions related to data centers. “Apart from data centers, in domains like smart factories, smart cities, and smart homes, we provide digitization and low-carbon solutions to enhance efficiency. Digitization serves as a significant driving force,” highlighted Poon.

SiC and GaN Operating in Tandem

In the current landscape of the new energy market, third-generation semiconductors such as SiC and GaN have gained significant traction. Taking the more mature development of SiC as an example, although it is still undergoing iterative development, it has found extensive applications in the automotive field, experiencing rapid growth.

TrendForce predicts that the SiC power component market in the automotive sector will witness substantial growth, from USD 1.09 billion in 2022 to USD 3.98 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 38%.

Presently, SiC faces supply shortages, prompting major makers to scale up production. Infineon, for instance, has announced a substantial expansion of its Kulim wafer fab in Malaysia, aiming to establish the world’s largest 8-inch SiC power wafer fab. Poon noted that the first phase is slated to commence production in mid-next year, with the second phase scheduled for production in 2027. This expansion is driven by the broad market demand for SiC across applications like AI, automotive, and new energy photovoltaics.

As per TrendForce, the collective market size of SiC power components in 2023 reached USD 2.28 billion, witnessing a notable 41.4% YoY growth. Projections suggest that by 2026, the SiC power component market could reach an impressive USD 5.33 billion, with the automotive sector’s SiC power component market poised to surge to USD 3.94 billion.

Besides Infineon, major players like Wolfspeed and STMicroelectronics are actively bolstering their production capacities. In June this year, STMicroelectronics announced plans to establish an 8-inch SiC device manufacturing joint venture with Sanan Optoelectronic in China. The commencement of production is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, with full completion scheduled for 2028, involving a total construction cost of approximately USD 3.2 billion. Wolfspeed, in collaboration with the German automotive giant ZF Group, not only established a joint innovation laboratory for SiC but is also in the process of constructing a SiC device factory in Germany.

According to TrendForce, The GaN market is primarily propelled by consumer electronics, with a core emphasis on fast charging. Other consumer applications include audio, wireless charging, power, and consumer products. However, many companies have already shifted their focus to industrial markets such as data centers, renewable energy, and the new energy vehicle market, with numerous companies persistently conducting R&D in this direction.”

Overall, semiconductor giants are strategically navigating both SiC and GaN, intensifying efforts in the realm of third-generation semiconductors and fortifying a more comprehensive industrial chain.
(Image: Infineon)

This year, increasing demand for ChatGPT, along with ongoing innovations in PC and server technologies, has driven a growing market preference for high-value DRAM chips such as HBM and DDR5. Memory giants are collectively and actively positioning themselves in the production of these products.

DDR5: Micron Unveils New Products, Samsung Plans Line Expansion

The current DDR5 process has advanced to 1β DRAM. In October, Micron announced the release of DDR5 memory based on 1β technology, boasting speeds of up to 7200 MT/s. This product is now shipping to all customers in the data centers and PC markets.

Recently, Micron introduced the 128GB DDR5 RDIMM memory, utilizing 32Gb chips. With speeds of up to 8000 MT/s, it is suitable for servers and workstations. It also employs Micron’s 1β technology, and achieves a 24% improvement in energy efficiency and a 16% reduction in latency. Micron plans to launch models with speeds of 4800 MT/s, 5600 MT/s, and 6400 MT/s in 2024, with a future model reaching 8000 MT/s.

On the other hand, memory giant Samsung is committed to increasing DDR5 production capacity. Reports suggest that Samsung is planning to expand the production of high-value DRAM, investing in the infrastructure for advanced DRAM and increasing R&D spending to solidify its long-term market dominance.

Samsung, report as per KED Global News, is internally considering expanding DDR5 production lines. Given the high value of DDR5 and its adoption in the PC and server markets, this year is essentially regarded as the “year of widespread DDR5 adoption.”

HBM: Expansion Trend Begins, Significant Revenue Growth Expected

Amid the AI boom, HBM continues to gain popularity with demand supply outpacing. To meet this demand, storage giants are actively expanding production.

Recent reports indicate that companies like Samsung are planning to increase HBM production by 2.5 times. Additionally, in early November, it was reported that Samsung, to expand HBM capacity, acquired certain buildings and equipment within the Samsung Display Cheonan Factory. Samsung plans to establish a new packaging line at Cheonan for large-scale HBM production, having spent 10.5 billion Korean won on the acquisition and planning additional investments ranging from 700 billion to 1 trillion Korean won.

Micron, on the other hand, announced the official activation of its Taiwan-based Taichung Fab on November 6th. This facility will integrate advanced probe and 3D- packaging test, producing HBM3E and other products to meet the growing demand in various applications such as AI, data centers, edge computing, and the cloud.

TrendForce indicates that HBM, a memory embedded in high-end AI chips, is primarily supplied by three major vendors: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. With the AI trend driving demand for AI chips, demand for HBM is also expected to increase in 2023 and 2024, prompting manufacturers to ramp up HBM production.

Looking ahead to 2024, the supply of HBM is expected to improve significantly. In terms of specifications, as AI chips demand higher performance, the mainstream for HBM in 2024 is expected to shift to HBM3 and HBM3e. Overall, with increased demand and higher average selling prices for HBM3 and HBM3e compared to the previous generation, HBM revenue is expected to see significant growth in 2024.
(Image: Samsung)

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Amid a two-year recalibration in the smartphone and electronic component supply chain, inventory levels have rebounded to a healthy state. The infusion of new applications like AI and auto driving has fueled a comprehensive replenishment of consumer electronics inventory, propelling IC design with a surge in urgent and short orders.

Although wafer prices surged by over 40% during the pandemic, recent declines in utilization suggest an impending price reduction cycle to maintain operational rates, expected to lead to a reduction in IC design costs. Key players, boasting inventory turnover periods below a hundred days, are well-positioned for a potential upswing in demand, as reported by CTEE.

While most semiconductor companies are anticipated to experience declines in 2023, inventory levels have already tapered off. MediaTek boasts an inventory turnover period of just 89.11 days, with Realtek and ITE Tech at 96.77 and 84.11 days, respectively.

IC design companies emphasize the dominance of rush orders in the latter half of the year. Despite the uncertainty of economic visibility, confidence prevails regarding the new applications like AI, auto driving, and LEO(Low Earth Orbit) satellites, promising an upsurge in demand.

IC design companies also point out that the 3-5 year cycle of device replacement is imminent. The infusion of new AI applications and technological advancements in decision-making and workplace practices is expected to drive business demand. Positive developments, such as Microsoft discontinuing support for Windows 10, are anticipated to gain traction by 2024.

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