In a subdued environment for consumer electronic applications in the storage market, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) technology is emerging as a new driving force, gaining significant attention from major players. Recent reports reveal that both Samsung and Micron are gearing up for substantial HBM production expansion.

Major Manufacturers Actively Investing in HBM

Recent reports indicate that Samsung has acquired certain buildings and equipment within the Cheonan facility of Samsung Display in South Korea to expand its HBM production capacity.

It is reported that Samsung plans to establish a new packaging line at the Cheonan facility for large-scale HBM production. The company has already spent 10.5 billion Korean won on the acquisition of the mentioned buildings and equipment, with an additional investment expected to range between 700 billion and 1 trillion Korean won.

Earlier, it was disclosed by Mr. Hwang Sang-jun, the Vice President of Samsung Electronics and Head of the DRAM Product and Technology Team, that Samsung has developed HBM3E with a speed of 9.8Gbps and plans to commence providing samples to customers.

Concurrently, Samsung is in the process of developing HBM4 with the objective of making it available by 2025. It is reported that Samsung Electronics is actively working on various technologies for HBM4, including non-conductive adhesive film (NCF) assembly techniques optimized for high-temperature thermal characteristics and hybrid bonding (HCB).

On November 6th, Micron Technology opened a new facility in Taichung. Micron has stated that this new facility will integrate advanced testing and packaging functions and will be dedicated to the mass production of HBM3E, along with other products. This expansion aims to meet the increasing demand across various applications such as artificial intelligence, data centers, edge computing, and cloud services.

Previously, Micron’s CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, revealed that the company plans to commence substantial shipments of HBM3E in early 2024. Micron’s HBM3E technology is currently undergoing certification by NVIDIA. The initial HBM3E offerings will feature an 8-Hi stack design with a capacity of 24GB and a bandwidth exceeding 1.2TB/s.

Furthermore, Micron intends to introduce larger-capacity 36GB 12-Hi stacks HBM3E in 2024. In an earlier statement, Micron had anticipated that the new HBM technology would contribute “hundreds of millions” of dollars in revenue by 2024.

Shift Toward HBM3 Expected in 2024

According to TrendForce, the current mainstream technology in the HBM market is HBM2e. This specification is utilized by prominent players like NVIDIA with their A100 and A800, AMD with the MI200 series, and various custom system-on-chip designs by CSPs.

Simultaneously, in response to the evolving demand for AI accelerator chips, many manufacturers are planning to introduce new products based on HBM3e technology in 2024. It is anticipated that both HBM3 and HBM3e will become the dominant technologies in the market next year, catering to the requirements of AI accelerator chips.

Following China’s Big Fund’s substantial $14.56 billion RMB investment in Changxin Xinqiao Storage Technology, a memory chip manufacturer, at the end of October, there are now reports of an additional $39 billion RMB injection.

China is actively building a domestic semiconductor supply chain, and according to Nikkei Asia, Changxin Xinqiao is set to utilize this funding to expedite the construction of its facility in Hefei, Anhui province, with the aim of achieving mass production within a span of three years.

Hefei is also the location of a production facility for ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a major semiconductor manufacturer specializing in DRAM production. Changxin Xinqiao shares some shareholders and its general manager with CXMT, according to Tianyancha.

Chinese media points out that Changxin Xinqiao has ambitious plans to produce DRAM chips in Hefei, destined for use in computers and a wide array of electronic devices. At present, Changxin Xinqiao has initiated the tendering process for new facility equipment and is poised to accelerate procurement and related procedures using the recently acquired funding.

With support from the Hefei City government, Changxin Xinqiao initiated the DRAM factory construction project in 2019 and laid out a policy to make use of domestically manufactured semiconductor production equipment.

(Image: CXMT)

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During the Snapdragon Summit 2023 in October, Qualcomm made a big announcement by introducing the Snapdragon X Elite chip, built on TSMC’s cutting-edge 4nm process. Qualcomm’s claim is bold; they assert that the chip will deliver superior performance compared to Intel’s x86 architecture and Apple’s M2 chip. Simultaneously, towards the end of October, Apple revealed its own Arm-based M3 chip. Notably, semiconductor giants AMD and NVIDIA are rumored to be exploring the development of new PC processors on the Arm architecture. The future outlook suggests that Arm-based processors may gradually cut in the market share traditionally held by x86 architecture processors.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Qualcomm’s New PC Processor Poised to Expand the Arm-Based PC Processor Market

Following Intel’s September 2023 Meteor Lake processor release, Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X Elite, its latest Arm-based PC processor in October. This chip leverages TSMC’s advanced 4nm technology. Qualcomm is forging partnerships with Taiwanese heavyweights such as Quanta, Compal, Wistron, Acer, Asus, Realtek, Nuvoton and others, aiming to secure a foothold in the CPU market within the PC supply chain. This collaborative effort is expected to yield new PC products hitting the market in 2024.

As of 2023, Arm commands approximately 11% of the market share. Apple, a pioneer in PC chips built on the Arm architecture, has seen success with the release of three generations of processors since the 2020 debut of M1 chip.

With Qualcomm entering the Arm architecture group, AMD also intends to step into Arm architecture with the upcoming Phoenix processor, set for launch in 2025. There are also whispers of NVIDIA partnering with MediaTek to develop a chip processor featuring SoC+GPU capabilities on the Arm architecture, with an initial focus on ChromeBook market, where MediaTek boasts years of experience.

In the PC market, significant factors include processor development timelines, product performance, power efficiency, extended battery life, and compatibility with software and hardware. High-end CPUs and GPUs have become indispensable components for high-end computers. Currently, Intel leads the CPU market, with AMD following closely in the x86 landscape. As more companies delve into the development of Arm-based processors, there is potential for them to carve a share from the x86 market in the future.

2. Arm Architecture Processors Gain Momentum, Intel Focusing on AI Software Application Processor Development

Apple’s M-series chips demonstrate their efficiency and extended battery life. Microsoft recognizes the advantages of the Arm architecture and is dedicated to fostering a strategic collaboration for Windows on Arm. This collaboration involves integrating operating systems with processors to attract leading manufacturers to engage in Arm-based processor development, aligning with the growing demands for AI PCs.

In the realm of x86 architecture, Intel enjoys a dominant position in the CPU market. To tap into the opportunities arising from AI PCs, Intel has integrated AI acceleration engine features into its processors, introducing a new generation of AI application processors that combine CPU, GPU, and NPU (Neural Processing Unit) functionalities. This caters to the growing demand for generative AI applications in enterprise mobile PCs. Furthermore, Intel has joined forces with major laptop brands to launch new AI PCs, aiming to seize a substantial share of the market.

As momentum grows in Arm-based processor development, Intel maintains confidence that their immediate effect on the demand for x86 architecture processors will be restrained. It is unlikely to hinder Intel’s continuous advancement in developing new processors. Unlike competitors concentrating on Arm architecture processor development, Intel places a stronger focus on AI software applications and the market opportunities arising from its partnership with the Microsoft platform.

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Non-Apple IC manufacturers are reporting positive business performance this quarter. Chinese brands are experiencing a revival driven by the release of new Huawei smartphones, and a resolution in inventory clearance in emerging markets. This has led to an increase in orders. Additionally, Samsung’s success in foldable phones is contributing to the upsurge. This overall trend is benefiting companies like MediaTek and Novatek in the smartphone-related IC manufacturing sector.

As reported by CTEE, China holds about 25% of the global smartphone market, with industry analysts predicting sales of 260 million units in China for 2023. Huawei’s re-entry into the smartphone market will significantly impact the smartphone SoC market share in 2024. This development will challenge Apple’s market share in China, and Huawei’s upcoming Nova mid-range smartphones will also affect brands like Honor, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and others, as they vie for market share.

Key drivers of the smartphone industry’s recovery

According to Economic Daily News, many Chinese smartphone brands are optimistic about the local market’s improvement following the launch of Huawei’s new smartphones. Beyond flagship models like the Mate 60, mid-range series like Nova are also showing increased activity. Leading non-Apple smartphone manufacturers are gearing up for a surge in demand and are actively stocking up on top-tier flagship chips, thus stimulating the supply chain’s demand for additional orders.

At the same time, Taiwanese manufacturers mention that Chinese smartphone brands that primarily target emerging markets have already digested their accumulated inventory and are now starting to replenish their stocks. Some smartphone-related chip manufacturers have also pointed out that Samsung and other Korean smartphone giants are enjoying good sales of foldable phones and have recently conveyed messages about increasing orders.

TrendForce notes that the current revival on demand side in the global smartphone market is primarily driven by inventory restocking. The potential for sustained orders remains uncertain due to the prevailing economic challenges.

(Image: MediaTek)

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