Amid the AI trend, the significance of high-value-added DRAM represented by HBM continues to grow.

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a type of graphics DDR memory that boasts advantages such as high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption compared to traditional DRAM chips. It accelerates AI data processing speed and is particularly suitable for high-performance computing scenarios like ChatGPT, making it highly valued by memory giants in recent years.

Memory is also representing one of Korea’s pillar industries, and to seize the AI opportunity and drive the development of the memory industry, Korea has recently designated HBM as a national strategic technology.

The country will provide tax incentives to companies like Samsung Electronics. Small and medium-sized enterprises in Korea can enjoy up to a 40% to 50% reduction, while large enterprises like Samsung Electronics can benefit from a reduction of up to 30% to 40%.

Overview of HBM Development Progress Among Top Manufacturers

The HBM market is currently dominated by three major storage giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Since the introduction of the first silicon interposer HBM product in 2014, HBM technology has smoothly transitioned from HBM, HBM2, and HBM2E to HBM3 and HBM3e through iterative innovation.

According to research by TrendForce, the mainstream HBM in the market in 2023 is HBM2e. This includes specifications used in NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and most CSPs’ self-developed acceleration chips. To meet the evolving demands of AI accelerator chips, various manufacturers are planning to launch new products like HBM3e in 2024, expecting HBM3 and HBM3e to become the market norm.

The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.

As for the higher-spec HBM4, TrendForce expects its potential launch in 2026. With the push for higher computational performance, HBM4 is set to expand from the current 12-layer (12hi) to 16-layer (16hi) stacks, spurring demand for new hybrid bonding techniques. HBM4 12hi products are set for a 2026 launch, with 16hi models following in 2027.

Meeting Demand, Manufacturers Actively Expand HBM Production

As companies like NVIDIA and AMD continue to introduce high-performance GPU products, the three major manufacturers are actively planning the mass production of HBM with corresponding specifications.

Previously, media reports highlighted Samsung’s efforts to expand HBM production capacity by acquiring certain buildings and equipment within the Samsung Display’s Cheonan facility.

Samsung plans to establish a new packaging line at the Cheonan plant dedicated to large-scale HBM production. The company has already invested KRW 10.5 trillion in the acquisition of the mentioned assets and equipment, with an additional investment of KRW 700 billion to KRW 1 trillion.

Micron Technology’s Taichung Fab 4 in Taiwan was officially inaugurated in early November 2023. Micron stated that Taichung Fab 4 would integrate advanced probing and packaging testing functions to mass-produce HBM3e and other products, thereby meeting the increasing demand for various applications such as artificial intelligence, data centers, edge computing, and the cloud. The company plans to start shipping HBM3e in early 2024.

In its latest financial report, SK Hynix stated that in the DRAM sector in 2023, its main products DDR5 DRAM and HBM3 experienced revenue growth of over fourfold and fivefold, respectively, compared to the previous year.

At the same time, in response to the growing demand for high-performance DRAM, SK Hynix will smoothly carry out the mass production of HBM3e for AI applications and the research and development of HBM4.

Read more

• Manufacturers Anticipate Completion of NVIDIA’s HBM3e Verification by 1Q24; HBM4 Expected to Launch in 2026, Says TrendForce
• [News] Strong Performance in HBM Ends SK Hynix’s Four Consecutive Quarters of Losses

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

NAND flash memory giants Kioxia and Western Digital (WD) were reported to be in negotiations with intentions to merge. However, the merger talks between Kioxia and WD were halted in October last year due to opposition from SK Hynix, the South Korean memory giant indirectly invested in Kioxia.

As per a report from Japanese media 47news, Kioxia has been making adjustments behind the scenes and is interested in restarting merger negotiations with WD. Kioxia’s major shareholder, Bain Capital, is reportedly in negotiations with SK Hynix.

It is reported that Kioxia is also exploring the possibility of cooperation with SK Hynix, but this may pose risks of violating anti-monopoly laws. If Kioxia and WD ultimately fail to merge, going public independently is also an option for Kioxia.

According to the report citing sources, SK Hynix is concerned that a merger between Kioxia and WD would weaken its influence over Kioxia. Therefore, SK Hynix is interested in participating in the integration to safeguard its influence.

On the other hand, WD has announced on October 30 last year that its board had approved a spin-off plan to separate its NAND flash memory division and establish a new company for independent listing, with operations expected to commence in the second half of 2024.

As per TrendForce’s  data for 3Q23, Samsung maintained its position as the top global NAND flash memory manufacturer, commanding a significant market share of 31.4%. Following closely, SK Group secured the second position with a 20.2% market share. Western Digital occupied the third position with a market share of 16.9%, while Japan’s Kioxia held a 14.5% market share.

Read more

• [News] Kioxia and Western Digital Merger in Turmoil? Reports of SK Hynix Disapproval and a Possible SoftBank Collaboration
• [NEWS] Western Digital and Kioxia Terminate Merger Talk, TrendForce Believes M&A Will Be an Inevitable Trend

(Photo credit: Kioxia)

While TSMC is pushing forward with its 2nm fab in Taiwan, there is also good news about its overseas expansion. According to the Japanese newspaper “Kumanichi,” TSMC is expected to announce the construction of its Kumamoto Fab 2 in Japan on February 6, with the possibility of incorporating the 7nm process. Additionally, the United States is also expected to provide several billion dollars in subsidies to TSMC’s new fab by the end of March.

▲ TSMC’s Layout of Global Production Capacity Edited by TrendForce, January, 2024

Per the report from the ” Kumanichi,” Japan’s Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Tetsushi Sakamoto, who hails from Kumamoto, stated during a local meeting on January 28th that TSMC is evaluating Kumamoto Prefecture’s Kikuyo Town as the location for its second fab. The announcement of the site for Fab 2 in Kumamoto is expected to be made as early as February 6th.

The report further indicates that Fab 2 is expected to be situated next to the first fab, which was completed at the end of last year. TSMC had previously mentioned that if a second fab were to be constructed, it would be located in the vicinity of the existing facility under construction.

Regarding the rumors, the spokesperson for TSMC stated that the expansion strategy of TSMC’s global manufacturing footprint is based on considerations of customer demand, business opportunities, operational efficiency, government support, and economic costs.

Through necessary investments, TSMC continues to support customer demands and respond to the structural growth of semiconductor technology in the long term. “We are currently focusing on evaluating the possibility of setting up a second fab in Japan, and there is no further information to share at the moment.”

During the recent earnings call, Mark Liu also mentioned that the plan for TSMC’s second fab in Japan is still under evaluation. However, he hinted at the possibility of adopting the 7-nanometer process.

TSMC’s Kumamoto plant is scheduled to hold its opening ceremony on February 24th. After retiring following the shareholders’ meeting in June this year, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, along with the designated successor and current President C.C.Wei, will lead several top executives to Japan for the event. TSMC has also invited Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to attend.

The decision for TSMC to establish a plant in Kumamoto, Japan, was announced in October 2021, and construction began in 2022. In comparison to TSMC’s announcement of a plant in the United States in 2020, which faced delays and is set to commence production in 2025, the Japanese plant has advanced more swiftly.

This aligns with TSMC founder Morris Chang’s statement last year that Japan is considered an ideal location for establishing a semiconductor supply chain.

Analyst Joanne Chiao from TrendForce previously pointed out that Japan’s expertise in materials and machinery is one of the factors attracting TSMC’s expansion. Japan stands to benefit from TSMC’s establishment as the pace of creating a local semiconductor ecosystem by Japanese government surpasses that of the U.S. government.

On the other hand, despite TSMC delaying the production at its new US plant, according to Bloomberg, the United States plans to announce substantial chip subsidies by the end of March. The aim is to pave the way for chip manufacturers like TSMC and Intel by providing them with billions of dollars to accelerate the expansion of domestic chip production.

These subsidies are a core component of the US 2022 “CHIPS and Science Act,” which allocates a budget of USD 39 billion to directly subsidize and revitalize American manufacturing.

Read more

• [News] Completion of TSMC’s Kumamoto Plant, Grand Opening on 2/24
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated on January 25th that the current phase marks the beginning of AI expansion and growth. He emphasized that AI is set to transform everything and be omnipresent in the future. However, the most significant challenge at present is the ongoing tight supply of AI chips.

According to a report from Economic Daily News, Huang, who recently visited Taiwan, shared his thoughts during an interview before attending the NVIDIA Taiwan branch’s year-end banquet.

He revealed that during his trip to Taiwan, he had meetings with TSMC’s founder couple, Morris and Sophie Chang, as well as with CEO C.C. Wei, his semiconductor manufacturing partner. During the discussion, Huang and Wei talked about the substantial demand for NVIDIA’s products and the necessary collaborative efforts with TSMC to address market needs.

Regarding the challenges facing AI development, Jensen Huang believes that one key challenge lies in expanding the production capacity of AI chips. While there is a tight supply of NVIDIA products, the demand is incredibly strong. 

As a result, NVIDIA actively collaborates with TSMC and other supply chain partners to meet this demand. The company continues to advance AI technology while also paying attention to related security issues.

When discussing the major trends in AI, Jensen Huang pointed out that the development of AI can help rejuvenate the computer industry. He further indicated that AI will operate in smartphones, computers, robots, automobiles, as well as in the cloud and data centers. Huang emphasized that NVIDIA is a pioneer in accelerating computation and AI computing, and in the next decade, he envisions a reshaping of computation, with every industry being impacted.

Before Huang’s visit to Taiwan, Huang also went to China recently, which is seen as an effort to alleviate concerns among customers about adopting the downgraded versions

Read more

• [News] Expert Insights on NVIDIA’s AI Chip Strategy – Downgraded Version Targeted for China, High-End Versions Aimed Overseas

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

Intel announced on the evening of January 25th that it will collaborate with UMC to develop 12-nanometer process platform technology. The production will utilize Intel’s wafer fab capacity in the United States, and both parties will share the cash generated from the collaboration. The production is expected to commence in 2027.

This marks Intel’s first collaboration with a Taiwanese foundry in process development. Intel is actively venturing into the foundry business, and this collaboration with UMC not only marks a new milestone in the Taiwan-US semiconductor foundry industry but also initiates a new competitive relationship in the global foundry industry.

Intel and UMC have not disclosed the expected investment amount for their collaboration. UMC stated that the investment amount cannot be disclosed as the collaborative technology will not enter production until 2027, at which point it will begin contributing to revenue.

Therefore, the investment will be shared by both parties. Regarding whether they will advance towards more advanced processes, UMC stated that they do not respond to distant matters and primarily focus on financial indicators that the company can afford.

Intel noted that the collaboration with UMC to develop the 12-nanometer process platform is primarily aimed at addressing the high growth in markets such as mobile, communication infrastructure, and networking.

This long-term collaboration combines Intel’s large-scale manufacturing capacity in the United States with UMC’s extensive experience in mature processes in foundry, expanding the process portfolio while providing a better regionally diversified and resilient supply chain to assist global customers in making better procurement decisions.

The new process node, according to Intel, will be developed and manufactured in Fabs 12, 22 and 32 at Intel’s Ocotillo Technology Fabrication site in Arizona.

“Taiwan has been a critical part of the Asian and global semiconductor and broader technology ecosystem for decades, and Intel is committed to collaborating with innovative companies in Taiwan, such as UMC, to help better serve global customers,” said Stuart Pann, Intel senior vice president and general manager of Intel Foundry Services (IFS).

He further stated that, “Intel’s strategic collaboration with UMC further demonstrates our commitment to delivering technology and manufacturing innovation across the global semiconductor supply chain and is another important step toward our goal of becoming the world’s second-largest foundry by 2030.”

Jason Wang, UMC co-president, said that UMC’s collaboration with Intel on a U.S.-manufactured 12 nm process with FinFET capabilities in the United States is a crucial aspect of the company’s pursuit of cost-effective capacity expansion and technological node advancement.

UMC anticipates that this collaboration will assist customers in smoothly migrating to this critical node while benefiting from the resilience of the expanded capacity in the North American market.

UMC looks forward to strategic collaboration with Intel, leveraging the complementary advantages of both parties to expand potential markets and significantly accelerate technology development timelines.

TrendForce believes that this partnership, which leverages UMC’s diversifed technological services and Intel’s existing factory facilities for joint operation, not only aids Intel in transitioning from an IDM to a foundry business model, it also allows UMC to agilely leverage FinFET capacity without the pressure of heavy capital investments.

TrendForce forecasts that this collaboration slashes average investment by a staggering 80%, compared to the cost of new equipment. This calculation includes only the expenses related to the relocation of equipment, secondary piping costs for factory services, and other minor associated expenses for ancillary equipment.

However, the journey is not without its challenges. UMC’s 14nm process, in development since 2017, is yet to hit mass production, and its 12nm process is still in the R&D phase, with mass production eyed for late 2026. This collaboration’s mass production timeline is tentatively set for 2027, with the FinFET architecture’s stability under careful watch.

Overall, TrendForce views this alliance as a significant step. UMC brings its plentiful experience in mature processes, while Intel contributes its advanced technological prowess.

This partnership is not just about mutual benefits in the 10nm process level; it’s a watchpoint for potentially deeper and more extensive collaboration in their respective fields of expertise. In the dynamic world of semiconductor manufacturing, this Intel-UMC alliance is a fascinating development to keep an eye on.

Read more

• [News] Intense Competition with Samsung and Intel in Advanced Processes; TSMC Speeds Up 2nm Progress
• [News] Intel to Launch New Automotive AI Chips, Competing with NVIDIA and Qualcomm

(Photo credit: Intel)