The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated the “National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (NAPMP) ,” with materials and substrates being the first subsidized areas. Due to the close collaboration between IC testing and IC substrates, it is not ruled out that the IC substrate industry could be the next recipient of subsidies under the U.S. chip legislation.

However, according to Commercial Times’ report, there is a lack of interest among Taiwanese PCB manufacturers in establishing facilities in the U.S., and there are three main reasons for this. 

Firstly, the PCB industry thrives on economies of scale, and the production costs in the U.S. are too high. Taiwanese manufacturers have recently responded to the China Plus One Strategy by establishing facilities in Southeast Asia, making it unlikely for them to set up operations in the U.S.

Secondly, the U.S. is not particularly welcoming to polluting industries, making pure substrate manufacturers more likely candidates. 

Thirdly, domestic PCB manufacturers in the U.S. are also relocating their production lines. If seeking a partnership is necessary, Japanese manufacturers may present a more viable option.

As for potential subsidy recipients, industry experts speculate that one of the more likely beneficiaries could be TTM Technologies, a major PCB manufacturer in the United States. TTM announced in 2023 the establishment of a new facility in the state of New York dedicated to producing HDI PCBs, primarily for military applications in line with U.S. strategic requirements.

The United States plans to invest USD 3 billion in three main areas: an advanced packaging piloting facility, workforce training programs, and funding for projects. The funding is derived from the CHIPS and Science Act, and detailed information on the subsidy program is expected to be announced in early 2024.

In response to this news, the Taiwan Printed Circuit Association pointed out that the conditions for subsidies under the CHIPS and Science Act are stringent. In the past year, the semiconductor supply chain-related companies, led by foundry outsourcing, have started to establish a production presence in the U.S. This includes not only foundries such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel but also packaging and testing facilities like Amkor and ASE Group.

The association highlighted that IC substrates are part of the semiconductor supply chain, but the more immediate impact is on packaging and testing facilities. If global packaging and testing facilities also take concrete actions to establish operations in the U.S. following the “whole chip” production mindset, the pressure on IC substrate manufacturing will undoubtedly increase. It is not ruled out that the IC substrate industry could be the next focus of the U.S. government’s attention.

While the production scale of IC substrates (or the overall PCB) in the U.S. may not be significant, once categorized as a strategic material, even small-scale production becomes meaningful.

In other words, establishing operations in the U.S. is not solely about scale but rather about companies having the “capability” to produce locally. Reportedly, the industry should pay attention to the future developments in U.S. policy in this regard.

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• IMPACT 2023 – Asia’s Largest Industry Event for IC Packaging and PCB Technologies – Highlighted Advanced Packaging, Substrates, and Latest Trends in AI

(Photo credit: iStock)

As companies increased their investments in 2023, the Chinese semiconductor industry actively expanded, leading to a substantial increase in the import volume of China’s chip manufacturing equipment.

According to Bloomberg’s report citing official Chinese customs data, the import value of equipment used in the production of computer chips in China surged by 14% in 2023, reaching nearly USD 40 billion. This marks the second-highest import value recorded since 2015, indicating that Chinese semiconductor companies are rapidly investing in new fabs. This effort is expected to aim at enhancing capabilities and circumventing export controls imposed by the United States and its allies.

In 2023, before the implementation of new export controls, China experienced a sharp increase in the import of semiconductor equipment from the Netherlands.

Due to companies rushing to make purchases before the implementation of restrictive measures in the Netherlands, the import value of photolithography equipment from the country in December 2023, as per IJIWEI’s report, saw an almost 1000% year-on-year increase, reaching USD 1.1 billion.

Even before these restrictions took effect, Dutch company ASML complied with the U.S. government’s request to halt the shipment of certain high-end equipment to China.

In early January 2024, ASML reported that the Dutch government partially revoked previously issued licenses for the shipment of NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography machines in 2023. This is expected to have an impact on specific customers in China.

Despite restrictions on China’s advanced process technology deployment, the main reason for its substantial purchases of semiconductor equipment lies in its efforts to break through in mature manufacturing processes.

According to a recent TrendForce’s data, China currently has 44 operational semiconductor fabs, with an additional 22 under construction. By the end of 2024, 32 Chinese wafer fabs will expand their capacity for 28-nanometer and older mature chips.

TrendForce predicts that by 2027, China’s share of mature process capacity in the global market will increase from 31% in 2023 to 39%, with further growth potential if equipment procurement progresses smoothly.

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• [News] Surge in Chip Manufacturing Equipment Imports from the Netherlands to China, Soaring Tenfold After U.S. Tightens Restrictions
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(Photo credit: ASML)

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has reportedly gone to Taiwan once again, with reports suggesting a recent visit to China. Industry sources believe NVIDIA is planning to introduce downgraded AI chips to bypass U.S. restrictions on exporting high-end chips to China. Huang’s visit to China is seen as an effort to alleviate concerns among customers about adopting the downgraded versions.

Experts indicate that due to the expanded U.S. semiconductor restriction on China, NVIDIA’s sales in the Chinese market will decline. To counter this, NVIDIA might adjust its product portfolio and expand sales of high-end AI chips outside China.

The export of NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 chips to China and Hong Kong was prohibited in September 2022. Following that, the A800 and H800 chips, which were further designed with downgraded adjustments for the Chinese market, were also prohibited for export to China in October of the previous year.

In November 2023, the NVIDIA’s management acknowledged the significant impact of the U.S. restrictions on China’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 but expressed confidence that revenue from other regions can offset this impact.

CEO Jensen Huang revealed in December in Singapore that NVIDIA was closely collaborating with the U.S. government to ensure compliance with export restrictions on new chips for the Chinese market.

According to reports in Chinese media The Paper, Jensen Huang recently made a low-profile visit to China. The market is closely watching the status of NVIDIA’s AI chip strategy in China and the company’s subsequent development strategies in response to U.S. restrictions. The fate of the newly designed AI chips, H20, L20, and L2, to comply with U.S. export regulations remains uncertain and will be closely observed.

Liu Pei-Chen, a researcher and director at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, discussed with CNA’s reporter about NVIDIA’s active planning to introduce a downgraded version of AI chips in China. 

The most urgent task, according to Liu, is to persuade Chinese customers to adopt these downgraded AI chips. Chinese clients believe that there isn’t a significant performance gap between NVIDIA’s downgraded AI chips and domestically designed AI chips.

Liu mentioned that this is likely the reason why Jensen Huang visited China. It serves as an opportunity to promote NVIDIA’s downgraded AI chips and alleviate concerns among Chinese customers. 

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• [News] Chinese Companies Reportedly Disassembling NVIDIA Gaming Cards for AI Development
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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

TSMC’s trillion-dollar investment plan for a 1nm fab is reportedly set to be established in the science park in Taibao City, Chiayi County, Taiwan. This follows TSMC’s recent announcement of the construction of its third 2nm fab in Kaohsiung, marking yet another strategic choice for advanced processes in southern Taiwan.

According to UDN’s report citing sources, TSMC has submitted a request for 100 hectares (roughly 247.10 acres) of land to the Southern Taiwan Science Park Administration, which oversees the Chiayi Science Park. Of this, 40 hectares (roughly 98.84 acres) are designated for an advanced packaging facility, while the remaining 60 hectares (roughly 148.26 Acres) are earmarked for the construction of a 1nm fab.

As TSMC’s land requirements exceed the initially planned 88 hectares (roughly 217.45 acres) in the first phase of the Chiayi Science Park, there are expectations for an accelerated expansion in the second phase to accommodate TSMC’s needs.

TSMC stated that the selection of the fab site involves various considerations. TSMC considers Taiwan as its primary base but does not rule out any possibilities, and continues to collaborate with the administration to assess suitable semiconductor fab sites. TSMC emphasized that all information should be primarily referred to the company’s official announcements.

As understood, the TSMC fab construction team conducted a site survey in the Chiayi Science Park in August of 2023, before it was incorporated into the jurisdiction of the Southern Taiwan Science Park Administration.

This move came after facing strong opposition during the third-phase expansion in the Longtan Science Park in Taoyuan. Following the intense protests, the TSMC construction team initiated a contingency plan and ultimately decided to abandon the construction project within the Longtan Science Park’s third-phase expansion.

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• [News] TSMC Actively Increases 2-Nanometer Production Capacity Planning, Market Expects Explosive Demand
• [News] TSMC Earnings Conference: Q1 Revenue Estimated to Drop 6.2%, Expects Over 20% Annual Growth

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to industry sources cited by South Korean media The Chosun Daily, Samsung has commenced the production of prototypes for its second-generation 3nm process and is testing the chip’s performance and reliability. The goal is to achieve a yield rate of over 60% within the next six months.

TSMC and Samsung are both actively vying for customers. Samsung is preparing to commence mass production of the second-generation 3nm GAA architecture in the first half of the year. The key to success in the competition lies in whether Samsung can meet the demands of major clients such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD, and simultaneously achieve a rapid increase in production.

Samsung is currently testing the performance and reliability of prototypes for the second-generation 3nm process, with the initial product set to feature in the soon-to-be-released Galaxy Watch 7 application processor (AP). It is expected to be used in the Galaxy S25 series Exynos 2500 chip next year.

If the production yield and performance of the second-generation 3nm process are stable, there is a chance that customers who had previously switched to TSMC may return to Samsung, especially considering Qualcomm’s movements.

As per report, Qualcomm is collaborating with TSMC in the production of the next-generation Snapdragon 8 Gen 3. Additionally, Nvidia’s H200, B100, and AMD’s MI300X are expected to adopt TSMC’s 3nm process.

Samsung announced in November of last year that it would commence mass production of the second-generation 3nm process in the latter half of 2024. While Samsung has not responded to Chosun’s report regarding the production of prototypes for the second-generation 3nm process, the timeline seems plausible.

However, the report mentions a chip yield rate of 60% without specifying transistor count, chip size, performance, power consumption, or other specifications.

Furthermore, according to Tom’s Hardware’s report, the chip size, performance, and power consumption targets for processors used in smartwatches, mobile phones, and data centers are entirely different. A 60% yield rate for small chips would make commercial use challenging, but for chips with a reticle size of 60% yield rate, it would be reasonably acceptable.

However, caution is advised in interpreting this report due to the uncertainties surrounding Samsung’s second-generation 3nm process production targets at its semiconductor foundries.

Nonetheless, the commencement of the second-generation 3nm process production is a significant development for both Samsung and the semiconductor industry as a whole.

(Image: TSMC)