Source to China Times, in response to increased visibility in AI server orders and optimistic future demand, two ODM-Direct based in Taiwan, Wiwynn, and Quanta, are accelerating the expansion of their server production lines in non-Chinese regions. Recently, there have been updates on their progress. Wiwynn has completed the first phase of its self-owned new factory in Malaysia, specifically for L10. As for Quanta, has further expanded its L10 production line in California, both gearing up for future AI server orders.

Wiwynn’s new server assembly factory, located in the Senai Airport City in Johor, Malaysia, was officially inaugurated on the 12th, and it will provide full cabinet assembly services for large-scale data centers. Additionally, the second phase of the front-end server motherboard production line is expected to be completed and operational next year, allowing Wiwynn to offer high-end AI servers and advanced cooling technology to cloud service providers and customers in the SEA region

While Wiwynn has experienced some slowdown in shipments and revenue due to its customers adjusting to inventory and CAPEX impacts in recent quarters, Wiwynn still chooses to continue its overseas factory expansion efforts. Notably, with the addition of the new factory in Malaysia, Wiwynn’s vision of establishing a one-stop manufacturing, service, and engineering center in the APAC region is becoming a reality.

Especially as we enter Q4, the shipment of AI servers based on NVIDIA’s AI-GPU architecture is expected to boost Wiwynn’s revenue. The market predicts that after a strong fourth quarter, this momentum will carry forward into the next year.

How significant is the demand for AI servers?

According to TrendForce projection, a dramatic surge in AI server shipments for 2023, with an estimated 1.2 million units—outfitted with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs—destined for markets around the world, marking a robust YoY growth of 38.4%. This increase resonates with the mounting demand for AI servers and chips, resulting in AI servers poised to constitute nearly 9% of the total server shipments, a figure projected to increase to 15% by 2026. TrendForce has revised its CAGR forecast for AI server shipments between 2022 and 2026 upwards to an ambitious 29%.

Quanta has also been rapidly expanding its production capacity in North America and Southeast Asia in recent years. This year, in addition to establishing new facilities in Vietnam, they have recently expanded their production capacity at their California-based Fremont plant.

The Fremont plant in California has been Quanta’s primary location for the L10 production line in the United States. In recent years, it has expanded several times. With the increasing demand for data center construction by Tier 1 CSP, Quanta’s Tennessee plant has also received multiple investments to prepare for operational needs and capacity expansion.

In August of this year, Quanta initially injected $135 million USD into its California subsidiary, which then leased a nearly 4,500 square-meter site in the Bay Area. Recently, Quanta announced a $79.6 million USD contract awarded to McLarney Construction, Inc. for three construction projects within their new factory locations.

It is expected that Quanta’s new production capacity will gradually come online, with the earliest capacity expected in 2H24, and full-scale production scheduled for 1H25. With the release of new high-end AI servers featuring the H100 architecture, Quanta has been shipping these products since August and September, contributing to its revenue growth. They aim to achieve a 20% YoY increase in server sales for 2023, with the potential for further significant growth in 2024.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal today, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is poised to secure an additional one-year exemption from the United States. TSMC’s semiconductor facility in Nanjing, China, is expected to continue operations in the “foreseeable future” as long as significant technical upgrades are not undertaken.

U.S.’s Attitude towards Semiconductor Giants in Asia

The U.S. imposed a ban on chip exports to China in October of the previous year, restricting semiconductor equipment manufacturers using U.S. technology from exporting to China without obtaining a license.

On October 9th, the South Korean government revealed that both Samsung and SK Hynix have earned recognition as “Validated End-Users (VEUs)” by the U.S., granting them the ability to import specific U.S. chip manufacturing equipment into their existing Chinese facilities without further U.S. approval.

The status of TSMC’s designation as a “Certified End-User” remains undisclosed,  and the Taiwanese government has not made any public statements on this issue at this time.

South Korea’s Future Challenges after Secured U.S. Exemption

Over the preceding year, the South Korean government and related companies have been actively engaged in mediation with the U.S. government and will persist in their efforts during the extended one-year exemption. “In reality, we cannot evade political risks and geopolitical uncertainties,” stated Choi Sang-mook, Chief Secretary for Economic Affairs in the South Korean President’s Office.

Through back to September 22th, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the final regulations for the “Chip Act.” The rules indicate that subsidized chip manufacturers will enter into binding agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce, limiting expansion and collaborative scientific research activities in countries including China. The restrictions for advanced processes and mature processes are set at 5% and 10%, respectively. This implies a severely restricted scope for expansion, and the future prospects for Samsung and SK Hynix’s continued growth in China remain uncertain.

Nevertheless, the U.S. decision to grant Samsung and SK Hynix an indefinite exemption bodes well for the semiconductor industry in China, the United States, South Korea, and the global semiconductor supply chain. As per Samsung’s statement, most of the uncertainties associated with its semiconductor production in China have been resolved. Meanwhile, SK Hynix underscores that this development bolsters the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain.

(Image: TSMC)

In the ongoing global race for advanced semiconductor technology, TSMC, the leader in semiconductor manufacturing services, continues its strides towards 2nm project. The Hsinchu’s Baoshan plant is set to commence equipment installation in Q2 2024, with mass production scheduled for Q4 2025, starting with a monthly output of around 30,000 wafers. Meanwhile, TSMC fab in Kaohsiung is organizing for N2P mass production, featuring backside power supply tech, a year after N2’s debut.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, as previously shared by TSMC, the N2 process introduces a backside power rail solution, ideal for high-performance computing (HPC) applications. The backside power rail promises a 10% to 12% speed boost and a 10% to 15% logic density improvement. The aim is to introduce backside power rail to customers in H2 2025, aligning with supply chain reports.

Notably, Intel led the transition from planar transistors to FinFET, and now, with evolving technologies like MBCFET, BSPDN (Backside Power Delivery Network) based on Gate-All-Around (GAA) FET. Major players such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel actively compete for leadership in the next-gen GAA technology, and have further presented promising and proactive technology roadmaps.

According to Samsung Semiconductor’s plans, they target to implement the 2nm process into mass production by 2025, with 1.4nm scheduled for 2027. Intel, adopting RibbonFET transistor architecture based on GAA technology, anticipates pilot production of the 20A version in H1 2024 and mass production of the 18A in 2025.

On October 11, Nanya Technology held an investor conference where CEO Li Pei-Ying noted that DDR5 prices have risen. Nanya Technology’s primary products, DDR3 and DDR4, have halted their decline, with recent negotiations indicating potential price increases and an expected improvement in ASP (average selling prices) in the fourth quarter. The bit growth rate is also expected to show a slight improvement, leading to an overall amelioration in the loss situation.

Li Pei-Ying stated that in terms of overall market supply, various DRAM manufacturers are increasing their supply of DDR5 and HBM products. This is beneficial for depleting DDR4 inventories, and the DRAM industry’s conservative approach to capital expenditure and wafer production capacity is expected to help restore a healthy supply-demand balance by 2024.

On the demand side, in the server sector, enterprise cloud applications are driving demand for AI computing and DDR5. Nanya Technology anticipates that the server market may gradually improve from the fourth quarter onwards. In the mobile sector, the continued development of AI applications in smartphones globally is expected to boost upgrade intentions, and there is an opportunity for a rebound in smartphone sales in the Chinese market from the fourth quarter.

In the PC sector, the launch of new products is expected to drive demand for DDR5 and LPDDR5, gradually replacing DDR4 and LPDDR4 as the mainstream options. In the consumer electronics sector, including televisions, IP cameras, networking, industrial control, and automotive applications, demand is maintaining steady growth.

(Photo credit: Nanya Technology)

TSMC is in the process of constructing a semiconductor factory in Kikuyo-cho, Kumamoto Prefecture, Kyushu, Japan (referred to as Plant 1). Production is expected to commence in December 2024. Besides this facility, TSMC has shown interest in establishing a second plant in Japan (referred to as Plant 2). According to Japanese reports, the government is considering providing TSMC with a substantial subsidy of up to 900 billion Japanese Yen for Plant 2.

On October 4, during the Public-Private Partnership Forum on Increasing Domestic Investment led by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, plans were announced for economic measures to be finalized within October. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan (METI) will request a budget of 3.4 trillion Japanese Yen to establish three funds supporting semiconductor production and research and development. These funds are the ” Research and Development Project of the Enhanced Infrastructures for Post-5G Information and Communication Systems,” the “Specified Semiconductor Funding Program,” and the “Ensuring Stable Supply Support Fund.”

As reported by Asahi Shimbun, sources suggest that the METI deems it necessary to grant 900 billion Japanese Yen in subsidies for TSMC’s proposed Plant 2, nearly 600 billion Japanese Yen for the “Rapidus” national team aiming to produce next-gen semiconductor chips domestically, and 700 billion Japanese Yen for traditional chips like Sony CMOS image sensors.

The Japanese government will allocate the required funds for these economic measures in the 2023 fiscal year supplementary budget. If the METI’s budget request is approved, the budget for semiconductor-elated activities in the 2023 fiscal year supplementary budget (3.4 trillion Japanese Yen) will be 2.6 times higher than that in the 2022 fiscal year supplementary budget (1.3 trillion Japanese Yen).

The Kishida administration also announced plans to ease land restrictions for crucial manufacturing facilities such as semiconductor plants during the forum. As early as December, local governments will be able to issue development permits for agricultural land, forests, and other areas.

Before that, local governments could only grant permits for industries related to food logistics, data centers, and plant facilities. Now, this is being expanded to include vital strategic materials. Furthermore, changing the land category from agricultural land often required approvals from multiple government departments, a process that could take more than a year. In the future, these procedures are expected to be shortened to around four months.

(Image: Briáxis F. Mendes (孟必思), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)