On August 29, 2023, Huawei quietly launched its new smartphone, the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, on its official website without the usual fanfare associated with new product releases. Unlike previous events or those held by other brands, Huawei chose to communicate with consumers solely through a letter. What intrigued the market most was the specification of the new device’s System-on-Chip (SoC). Initially, Huawei did not provide any official information about it. However, the release of this new smartphone demonstrates China’s determination to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency.

Key Insights from TrendForce:

• Overcoming U.S. Sanctions, Huawei Makes a Comeback

In the past, Huawei secured its position as the second-largest player in the global smartphone market by leveraging the differentiating advantage of its in-house developed Kirin SoC chips. However, since May 2019, Huawei has been affected by U.S. sanctions. In September 2020, TSMC, which previously manufactured chips for Huawei, announced the cessation of production. With no supply from TSMC, Huawei’s inventory of 5G chips was depleted by the third quarter of 2022.

Unable to acquire high-end chips, Huawei’s market share in the smartphone industry saw a significant decline. The company could only source 4G chips not subject to U.S. sanctions from Qualcomm or UNISOC. It was believed that U.S. sanctions would severely impact Huawei’s smartphone supply chain and push the company into a dire situation. However, upon analyzing Huawei’s latest release, it is evident that the new smartphone not only features an in-house developed SoC chip by Huawei’s semiconductor subsidiary HiSilicon but also incorporates components and designs from various Chinese manufacturers.

• China’s Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Continues to Strengthen, Minimal Impact on Taiwanese Supply Chain Expected

China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency has become an inevitable outcome of industry development. Although Huawei has not provided detailed specifications for the SoC chip in the Mate 60 Pro, it is speculated that this chip likely uses SMIC’s N+2 process. Due to sanctions, SMIC has been unable to obtain essential EUV equipment. Furthermore, based on the chip’s performance benchmarking, it is comparable to Qualcomm’s flagship Snapdragon 888 chip released in 2021. This suggests that the SoC’s process technology likely falls in the range of 7-14nm, which still lags behind current advanced processes. Nevertheless, this achievement underscores China’s commitment to semiconductor self-sufficiency.

As China gains the ability to independently develop and produce chips, the question arises of whether other Chinese smartphone brands, apart from Huawei, will begin their own chip development efforts. Will this development impact Taiwanese IC design house and foundries that previously held related orders? MediaTek, for instance, primarily supplies chips to brands such as OPPO and vivo. Given that Huawei competes strongly with OPPO and vivo in the smartphone market, it is unlikely that these two brands will entrust their smartphone core SoCs to Huawei’s HiSilicon. Additionally, developing proprietary chips comes with significant costs. Therefore, under these circumstances, it is expected that OPPO and vivo will maintain their partnerships with MediaTek. MediaTek’s chip designs can also utilize TSMC’s advanced processes, giving OPPO and vivo a key competitive advantage against Huawei. Consequently, it is inferred that as long as there is a significant gap between the processes and yields of SMIC and TSMC, Taiwanese foundries will not be significantly affected.

(Photo credit: Huawei)

According to the news from ChinaTimes, the semiconductor market is experiencing a slowdown, with Taiwan’s three major mature process wafer foundries UMC, VIS, and PSMC all reporting reduced revenues in August. VIS and UMC both posted lower revenues compared to the previous month, while PSMC managed a slight 1.2% monthly increase in August. However, this increase still falls within this year’s relatively low range. Industry experts anticipate that the semiconductor industry will maintain a subdued market outlook in the latter half of this year, with a potential recovery likely delayed until the first half of the next year.

The semiconductor industry began its correction in the second half of last year. Initially, there was optimism for inventory adjustments to conclude within four quarters by the end of this year’s second quarter, anticipating a demand rebound in the latter half of the year. However, since the second quarter, semiconductor manufacturers have grown pessimistic due to slower downstream inventory depletion and weak end-user demand. This is reflected in third-quarter revenues for mature process wafer foundries, which are expected to remain flat or slightly decline based on August revenues. A robust recovery in the fourth quarter is unlikely, suggesting that industry-wide recovery is likely postponed until the first half of next year.

UMC saw consecutive monthly revenue growth from February to July. However, following five consecutive increases, the company experienced a slight decrease in revenue in August. TSMC previously stated in a conference that the current market recovery falls short of expectations, with an unclear outlook for wafer demand. It anticipates a 3~4% quarter-on-quarter decrease in wafer shipments in the third quarter, which aligns with the market’s expectations for a slight decline in August revenue.

UMC forecasts a 3~4% quarter-on-quarter decrease in wafer shipments in the third quarter, a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase in the average wafer price in USD, a low single-digit percentage decrease in the average gross margin, and an approximate 65% capacity utilization rate. Overall, industry insiders expect TSMC to face slight downward pressure on third-quarter revenue.

VIS reported July revenue reaching NT$3.596 billion, marking a new high for the first seven months of the year. However, its August revenue showed a decline, with a 2.23% month-on-month decrease to NT$3.516 billion. This is significantly different from the typical revenue growth momentum observed during the third-quarter peak season in previous years. Cumulative revenue for the first eight months of this year also decreased by 34.54% compared to the same period last year.

VIS anticipates a 4~6% quarter-on-quarter increase in wafer shipments in the third quarter, with a capacity utilization rate similar to that of the second quarter, around 60%. The average selling price (ASP) is expected to remain stable. However, due to increased production costs and depreciation expenses, the gross margin is estimated to decline to 25~27% in the third quarter, putting more pressure on profitability compared to revenue.

As for PSMC, although its August revenue saw a slight 1.2% month-on-month increase, the company has maintained around NTD 3.4 billion in monthly revenue from June to August, which is considered a low level compared to the second quarter when monthly revenue was approximately NTD 3.8 billion. The third quarter is expected to continue to exert downward pressure on revenue compared to the previous quarter. The company has also previously stated that it does not rule out the possibility of a quarterly loss in its core business during the third quarter.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230911000124-260202?chdtv)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, AI is driving a massive demand for data transmission, and silicon photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) have become new focal points in the industry. TSMC is actively entering this field and is rumored to be collaborating with major customers such as Broadcom and NVIDIA to jointly develop these technologies. The earliest large orders are expected to come in the second half of next year.

TSMC has already assembled a research and development team of over 200 people, aiming to seize the business opportunities in the emerging market of ultra-high-speed computing chips based on silicon photonics, which are expected to arrive gradually starting next year.

Regarding these rumors, TSMC has stated that they do not comment on customer and product situations. However, TSMC has a high regard for silicon photonics technology. TSMC Vice President Douglas Yu recently stated publicly, “If we can provide a good silicon photonics integration system, it can address two key issues: energy efficiency and AI computing capability. This could be a paradigm shift. We may be at the beginning of a new era.”

Silicon photonics was a hot topic at the recent SEMICON Taiwan 2023 with major semiconductor giants like TSMC and ASE giving related keynote speeches. This surge in interest is mainly due to the proliferation of AI applications, which have raised questions about how to make data transmission faster and achieve signal latency reduction. The traditional method of using electricity for signal transmission no longer meets the demands, and silicon photonics, which converts electricity into faster optical transmission, has become the highly anticipated next-generation technology to enhance high-volume data transmission speeds in the industry.

Industry reports suggest that TSMC is currently collaborating with major customers like Broadcom and NVIDIA to develop new products in the field of silicon photonics and Co-Packaged Optics. The manufacturing process technology ranges from 45 nanometers to 7 nanometers, and with mass production slated for 2025. At that time, it is expected to bring new business opportunities to TSMC.

Industry sources reveal that TSMC has already organized a research and development team of approximately 200 people. In the future, silicon photonics is expected to be incorporated into CPU, GPU, and other computing processes. By changing from electronic transmission lines to faster optical transmission internally, computing capabilities are expected to increase several tens of times compared to existing processors. Currently, this technology is still in the research and academic paper stage, but the industry has high hopes that it will become a new driver of explosive growth for TSMC’s operations in the coming years.

(Photo credit: Google)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, the semiconductor market is expected to slow down this year. PSMC Chairman Frank Huang stated that it is estimated that the current wave of semiconductor inventory clearance will not be completed until the end of the first quarter of next year, and the overall market conditions for next year are still not expected to rebound strongly.

When asked about the mature wafer fabs in mainland China aggressively capturing market share this year with low prices, Frank Huang emphasized that this was anticipated. He further stated that PSMC is planning to launch affordable AI chips primarily targeting the consumer market next year, completely differentiating them from Nvidia’s high-priced products. Given the large scale of the consumer market, he expressed optimism regarding future shipment growth.

Huang emphasized that PSMC’s planned AI chips with AI functionality are like miniature computers. Currently, international chip manufacturers offer AI chips with unit prices as high as $200,000, making them impossible for widespread adoption in the consumer market. Therefore, the AI chips PSMC plans to launch next year will have lower prices and will be specifically tailored for the massive consumer market. He gave examples, including affordable AI features being integrated into toys and household appliances. Toys, for instance, will be able to recognize their owners and engage in voice interactions.

Huang mentioned that, because they are targeting affordability and mass appeal, these AI chips will be produced using a 28-nanometer process and are expected to contribute to revenue through formal shipments next year. With a focus on the consumer market, Huang is optimistic about the future shipments and business contributions of these AI chips.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, the production schedule for TSMC’s semiconductor foundry in the United States has been delayed until 2025, raising concerns among observers. However, Chairman Mark Liu, in an interview on the 6th, stated that there has been significant progress over the past five months and expressed confidence in the project’s success. Industry sources have indicated that TSMC’s U.S. facility may alter its ramp-up strategy by first establishing a mini-line for trial production, with the expectation of having it in place by the first quarter of 2024.

TSMC’s Fab 21 Phase 1 construction began in April 2021, originally slated for early 2024 production. However, challenges such as a shortage of skilled equipment installation personnel, local union protests, and differences in overseas safety regulations have caused delays in equipment installation. This has compelled TSMC to adjust its plans, and the expected production timeline is now set for 2025, representing a one-year delay.

Industry analysts have noted that the efficiency of equipment entering the facility at TSMC’s U.S. plant in Arizona is only about one-third of that of its Taiwan facilities. Given the current pace of progress, the time required for equipment setup to actual production could be substantial. Therefore, TSMC has decided to change its previous ramp-up strategy and first establish a mini-line with an initial estimated monthly capacity of about 4,000 to 5,000 wafers. This approach aims to ensure some level of production output while mitigating potential contract breach issues arising from delays in production.

(Photo credit: TSMC)