DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of DRAM products have risen slightly lately due to Samsung’s earlier attempt to raise prices of 3D NAND Flash wafers as well as the temporary halt in the flow of rebelled used chips into the market. DDR4 products have experienced a more noticeable price increase compared with DDR5 products. However, there is still insufficient actual demand to sustain the rise in spot prices. Furthermore, most spot traders already have sufficient inventory. Therefore, prices have stopped falling, but the overall transaction volume is not expanding. TrendForce believes spot prices are near the trough for this downturn phase of the price cycle. Nevertheless, there is some time before the overall average spot will rebound because demand visibility is limited. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.34% from US$1.456 last week to US$1.451 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
The intermittent price increases of packaged dies at various capacities are reflecting persistently sluggish market demand, while wafer prices, after several consecutive weeks of elevation in prices, are now gradually subsiding in differences to that of the contract market. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 3.88% this week, arriving at US$1.578.

According to Taiwan’s TechNews report, Intel has revealed the architecture and supply schedule of the new generation data center Xeon processors, Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. They are also set to unveil the consumer processor codenamed Meteor Lake in mid-September. However, with the semiconductor market’s current weak recovery, the impact of Intel’s new processors on driving upgrades and benefiting Taiwanese supply chain manufacturers remains uncertain, making it a market focal point.

Regarding the consumer-oriented Meteor Lake processor, industry sources suggest that it will not only be the first to adopt “Intel 4” technology, but also the first to utilize EUV lithography for cost reduction in mass-producing CPU tiles. TSMC will assist in production using the 5/6 nanometer process for graphics chip modules (GFX tile), system chip modules (SoC tile), and input/output chip modules (IOE tile), aiming for higher yields to decrease production costs.

Furthermore, the Meteor Lake processor shifts from traditional monolithic chip design to chiplet technology. After separating functions like graphics, system, and I/O chips, it employs the 3D Foveros advanced packaging technology. Through Foveros interconnects, multiple chiplets are vertically stacked into one chip. This approach not only increases the yield of critical modules but also reduces costs, granting Intel greater flexibility in rapidly creating next-generation chip capacities.

For the upcoming Meteor Lake processor, its direct beneficiary is undoubtedly TSMC, which assists in producing graphics chip modules, system chip modules, and input/output chip modules using the 5/6 nanometer process. This collaboration not only boosts revenue but also maintains the ongoing partnership with Intel.

However, despite Taiwanese foundries and board manufacturers securing orders for Intel’s new-generation processors, the current economic environment remains unfavorable. With a cautious and conservative outlook on consumer spending in the global market, the launch of Intel’s new products could either boost supply chain revenue or lead to increased inventory in the next phase, requiring further observation.

(Photo credit: Intel)

According to a report from Taiwan’s TechNews, NVIDIA has delivered impressive results in its latest financial report, coupled with an optimistic outlook for its financial projections. This demonstrates that the demand for AI remains robust for the coming quarters. Currently, NVIDIA’s H100 and A100 chips both utilize TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging technology, making TSMC’s production capacity a crucial factor.

Examining the core GPU market, NVIDIA holds a dominant market share of 90%, while AMD accounts for about 10%. While other companies might adopt Google’s TPU or develop customized chips, they currently lack significant operational cost advantages.

In the short term, the shortage of CoWoS has led to tight chip supplies. However, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley Securities, NVIDIA believes that TSMC’s CoWoS capacity won’t restrict shipments of the next quarter’s H100 GPUs. The company anticipates an increase in supply for each quarter next year. Simultaneously, TSMC is raising CoWoS prices by 20% for rush orders, indicating that the anticipated CoWoS bottleneck might alleviate.

According to industry sources, NVIDIA is actively diversifying its CoWoS supply chain away from TSMC. UMC, ASE, Amkor, and SPIL are significant players in this effort. Currently, UMC is expanding its interposer production capacity, aiming to double its capacity to relieve the tight CoWoS supply situation.

According to Morgan Stanley Securities, TSMC’s monthly CoWoS capacity this year is around 11,000 wafers, projected to reach 25,000 wafers by the end of next year. Non-TSMC CoWoS supply chain’s monthly capacity can reach 3,000 wafers, with a planned increase to 5,000 wafers by the end of next year.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

NVIDIA Beats Expectations with Q2 Financial Results and Optimistic Q3 Outlook, But Overall Semiconductor Short-Term Prospects Remain Weak, According to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.

While the semiconductor industry remains subdued, NVIDIA stands out with robust operational performance and a positive outlook. The company reported Q2 revenue of $13.51 billion, an 88% increase from the previous quarter and double the figure from the same period last year. Net income reached $6.19 billion, translating to $2.48 per share. NVIDIA anticipates Q3 revenue to further reach around $16 billion, marking a 170% YoY increase.

According to research firm TrendForce, NVIDIA’s rapid data center business growth is the primary driver. In Q4 of the fiscal year 2022, data center revenue accounted for about 42.7% of the total, surpassing gaming. In Q1 of FY 2023, it exceeded 45%, and by Q2 of FY 2024, data center revenue reached $10.32 billion, a 141% increase from the previous quarter and a 171% YoY increase, making up more than 76% of total revenue.

TrendForce notes that AI server solutions are pivotal in propelling NVIDIA’s data center growth, including AI accelerator GPUs and AI server reference architecture like HGX.

Arisa Liu, a researcher and director at Taiwan Industry Economics Services, mentioned that NVIDIA’s outstanding performance underscores its solid leadership in the AI market. She emphasized that customer demand for AI-related solutions is consistently on the rise.

Liu also mentioned that NVIDIA’s supply chain is expected to benefit in tandem. Orders for TSMC’s 7nm, 4nm, and 3nm advanced processes might increase. Advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS are expected to remain in high demand. In addition, orders for silicon intellectual property, high-speed transmission components, power supply, PCBs, chassis, and server OEMs are likely to see growth.

However, Liu indicated that due to the relatively low share of the AI market, it cannot fully offset the impact of sluggish demand in major application markets such as computers, smartphones, and consumer electronics. As a result, the short-term semiconductor market conditions are expected to remain weak.

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, a trend is taking shape as computer brand manufacturers venture into the AI server market. Notably swift on this path are Taiwan’s ASUS, Gigabyte, MSI, and MITAC. All four companies hold a positive outlook on the potential of AI server-related business, with expectations of reaping benefits starting in the latter half of this year and further enhancing their business contributions next year.

Presently, significant bulk orders for AI servers are stemming from large-scale cloud service providers (CSPs), which has also presented substantial opportunities for major electronic manufacturing services (EMS) players like Wistron and Quanta that have an early foothold in server manufacturing. As the popularity of generative AI surges, other internet-based enterprises, medical institutions, academic bodies, and more are intensifying their procurement of AI servers, opening doors for brand server manufacturers to tap into this burgeoning market.

ASUS asserts that with the sustained growth of data center/CSP server operations in recent years, the company’s internal production capacity is primed for action, with AI server business projected to at least double in growth by next year. Having established a small assembly plant in California, USA, and repurposing their Czech Republic facility from a repair center to a PC manufacturing or server assembly line, ASUS is actively expanding its production capabilities.

In Taiwan, investments are also being made to bolster server manufacturing capabilities. ASUS ‘s Shulin factory has set up a dedicated server assembly line, while the Luzhu plant in Taoyuan is slated for reconstruction to produce low-volume, high-complexity servers and IoT devices, expected to come online in 2024.

Gigabyte covers the spectrum of server products from L6 to L10, with a focus this year on driving growth in HPC and AI servers. Gigabyte previously stated that servers contribute to around 25% of the company’s revenue, with AI servers already in delivery and an estimated penetration rate of approximately 30% for AI servers equipped with GPUs.

MSI’s server revenue stands at around NT$5 billion, constituting roughly 2.7% of the company’s total revenue. While MSI primarily targets small and medium-sized customers with security and networking servers, the company has ventured into the AI server market with servers equipped with GPUs such as the NVIDIA RTX 4080/4090. In response to the surging demand for NVIDIA A100 and H100 AI chips, MSI plans to invest resources, with server revenue expected to grow by 20% to NT$6 billion in 2024, with AI servers contributing 10% to server revenue.

MITAC ‘s server business encompasses both OEM and branding. With MITAC’s takeover of Intel’s Data Center Solutions Group (DSG) business in July, the company inherited numerous small and medium-sized clients that were previously under Intel’s management.

(Photo credit: ASUS)