China is actively investing in chips with a mature process of 20nm and above. According to Chosun Ilbo, some insiders signal a potential shift of over 50% of global mature-node chips production to China within the next 2 to 3 years. As semiconductors focusing on mature process account for 75% of overall chip demand, China’s growing influence in this sector raises significant security concerns.

During the APEC SME Technology Conference and Fair in Qingdao on the 9th of this month, Wei Li, former Vice President of SMIC, emphasized the necessity for China to prioritize the localization of semiconductors with a 20nm process and above. This category includes semiconductors focusing on mature process, where Li acknowledged China’s technology lags behind international counterparts by more than 5 years.

Despite China’s efforts for independent development, the semiconductor industry faces comprehensive restrictions from the United States, heavily relying on imports for materials, equipment, and design software, with only about 10% being domestically produced. China, holding over 1/3 of the global chip market, struggles with a self-sufficiency rate below 15%, hindering its industrial progress, especially with foreign countries imposing export controls on advanced process and equipment.

According to South Korean media reports, concerns have arisen within the industry about the potential impact on the global semiconductor supply chain as China expands its mature processes. Despite the recent surge in demand for advanced chips like AI chips and servers, semiconductors focusing on mature process still constitute 75% of overall demand. These chips are crucial not only in autonomous vehicles, automobiles, and home appliances but also in military applications. If China monopolizes this market, it could lead to a severe security crisis.

China is rapidly increasing its market share in the mature-node chips sector, with the government offering up to a 10-year corporate tax exemption for new domestic semiconductor plants. Last year, SMIC invested USD 8.9 billion in Shanghai to build a 28nm plant.

Data from TrendForce indicates that China plans to construct 32 semiconductor plants by 2024, surpassing Taiwan’s 19 and the United States’ 12.

China’s Wafer Fabs Hits 44 with Future Expansion 32, Mainly Targeting on The Mature Process

China’s Expansion into the mature process market poses big challenges for Korean enterprises. Chinese companies are gaining ground in various sectors, including the image sensor market, encompassing DDI semiconductors used in OLED panels. Beyond manufacturing capabilities, China has achieved noteworthy levels of design expertise in semiconductor technologies.

On the other hand, in previous press release, TrendForce predicted China’s mature process capacity to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, Hua Hong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan’s share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.

TSMC, UMC, and Samsung are the frontrunners in this technology currently. Yet, Chinese players like SMIC and Nexchip are hot on their heels, swiftly closing the gap. SMIC’s 28HV and Nexchip’s 40HV are gearing up for mass production in 4Q23 and 1H24, respectively—narrowing their technological gap with other foundries.

China’s Share in Mature Process Capacity Predicted to Hit 29% in 2023, Climbing to 33% by 2027, Says TrendForce

As China enhances its influence over mature-node chips, both the U.S. and the EU are contemplating countermeasures. Despite months of discussions, there are still no concrete results regarding these potential measures.
(Image: SMIC)

The semiconductor industry in China is gradually recovering in response to shifts in downstream demand in the end of November. This positive trend is reflected in the industry’s dynamics of investment and financing.

There have been nearly 40 financing events in the semiconductor industry. Sectors such as storage chips, MEMS, automotive-grade chips, third-generation semiconductors, and semiconductor materials/equipment are particularly attracting capital. Companies in the spotlight include SCY, Sinopack, YT Micro, Oritek, Analogysemi, Konsemi, and UniSiC.

SCY: Advancing Core Storage Technology 

Shenzhen-based SCY has successfully concluded Series B strategic financing, led by Xiaomi Industry Fund and joined by several upstream and downstream companies. The funds raised will be dedicated to enhancing core storage technology, research and development, furthering global strategies. SCY aims to establish its own storage brands, SCY and WeIC, in the terminal market. The company has achieved a breakthrough in the second-generation Flip Chip advanced packaging technology, with the full-scale production of its self-developed 512GB UFS3.1 storage chip. The expectation is to achieve mass production of 1TB capacity UFS3.1 next year.

Sinopack: Advancements in Ceramic Packaging 

Sinopack has completed Series B strategic financing, earmarking the capital for production line construction and research and development to stimulate the company’s second growth curve. Established in 2009, Sinopack focuses on ceramic packaging applied in optical communication, wireless communication, and other fields. The company has successfully developed precision ceramic components with core materials such as aluminum oxide and aluminum nitride. Sales revenue in the first half of 2023 has already surpassed the entire year of 2022.

YT Micro: Driving Automotive-grade Chip Innovation

Jiangsu-based YT Micro has successfully secured Series B1 round financing. The company specializes in automotive-grade chips design. With deep collaborations with numerous automotive OEMs  and automotive component companies, YT Micro has executed 300+ specified projects, resulting in millions of shipments. Future plans include increased investment in the research and development and mass production of high-performance automotive processor chips, expanding industrial ecological cooperation, and strengthening strategic business collaborations with OEMs and Tier1.

Oritek: Pioneering Intelligent Automotive Solutions

Oritek stands as China’s first provider focusing on the third generation of intelligent automotive E/E architecture. The company’s Longquan series chips cater to smart automotive terminal-side intelligent components, smart local processing unit, and integrated central computing units for parking and charging in 2023. The Longquan 560 chip was unveiled in 2023.

Analogysemi: Advancing Analog and Mixed-signal Chips

Founded in 2018, Analogysemi concentrates on analog and mixed-signal chips, applied across various markets like industrial, communication, medical, and automotive. The company has successfully entered the automotive electronics field, achieving mass production of products such as automotive-grade DC brushed motor drivers, widely used in automotive electronic components.

Konsemi: Elevating Embedded Storage Solutions

Established in November 2018, Konsemi focuses on the research and development of embedded storage controller chips and modules. It stands among the few Chinese manufacturers independently designing a complete range of embedded storage chips. With applications spanning smart TVs, set-top boxes, mobile devices, smart wearables, communication devices, drones, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles, Konsemi’s self-developed eMMC product has received certifications from mainstream manufacturers and is integrated into the supply chain of renowned brands, with sales reaching millions.

UniSiC: Leading in Power Semiconductor Device Testing

UniSiC has successfully concluded a billion-yuan strategic financing, earmarked for forward-looking product research and development and global expansion. Established in 2020, the company focuses on power semiconductor device testing and high-frequency power electronic applications. With successful developments in silicon carbide technology and securing multiple orders, UniSiC’s SiC ATE product has commenced overseas installations.

TSMC’s Chairman, Mark Liu, recently addressed the challenges posed by global fragmentation and emerging national security concerns, which may potentially lead to a slowdown in global innovation. Despite these concerns, Liu emphasized Taiwan’s ability to respond calmly. TSMC remains committed to advancing its manufacturing processes and collaborates closely with clients to establish an open innovation platform.

On November 22th, Liu spoke at a lecture organized by Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce, Taiwan (CNAIC), focusing on “TSMC in the AI Era,” as reported by the Central News Agency (CNA). During the lecture, Liu highlighted that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, serving as a cornerstone, plays a vital role in driving advancements in AI applications.

However, he also acknowledged that the ongoing US-China chip war has brought global fragmentation and raised national security concerns, potentially slow down the pace of global innovation. Despite these challenges, Liu expressed confidence in Taiwan’s ability to handle them effectively.

In terms of  latest updates on TSMC’s global fabs, Liu mentioned positive communication with local unions in the US, showcasing TSMC’s ability to adapt and learn from new experiences. He also commended the high-quality and dedicated personality of Japanese engineers during his visit to Japan.

TSMC’s fab in Arizona, employing nearly 1,100 local staff, continues to recruit talents with plans for mass production to commence in 2025. The Kumamoto fab in Japan is expected to initiate production of 12nm, 16nm, 22nm, and 28nm processes by the end of the next year.

Regarding TSMC’s upcoming fab in Germany, the company aims to establish a specialized wafer fab focusing on automotive and industrial applications. This fab will produce 12nm, 16nm, 22nm, and 28nm processes, with construction set to begin in the second half of the next year and production slated for the end of 2027.

[News] TSMC’s Fab in Germany Progress Reports Potential Setback in Manager Selection?

Rise of Nvidia and other fabless companies, anticipating 10% growth in the next five years

Looking forward to the future tech landscape, Liu also anticipated Nvidia’s emergence as the world’s largest semiconductor company in 2023. From recent financial reports, Nvidia’s Q3 revenue reached USD 18.12 billion, surpassing TSMC’s USD 17.27 billion for the same quarter, as well as Intel’s USD 14.16 billion and Samsung Semiconductor’s USD 12.52 billion.

The rapid progress of Fabless companies also caught Liu’s eye. Fabless companies are expected to grow by around 10%, and IDMs by only 4% in the next five years. Additionally, he emphasized that semiconductor technology advances threefold every two years, projecting a 242-fold improvement over a decade.

What is “Fabless”?

Companies exclusively engaged in semiconductor design are referred to as “Fabless.” This term originates from the fact that these companies do not have their own fabrication. They are also known as “fabless semiconductor companies” due to their specialty of not owning production fab. Further categorization within fabless companies includes IC design and IP design.

Industry note that Nvidia’s growth as a fabless company is attributed to the surging demand for AI, including an optimized product portfolio. While Nvidia’s financial report mentioned geopolitical limitations and potential delays in H20’s launch, the company remains a global leader in AI computing. As for TSMC, it stands out as the most advanced pure-play foundry with its 3nm process, gradually increasing production in the second half of the year to alleviate inventory adjustment pressures within the rest of the 7nm family.
(Image: TSMC)

With 32 mature process wafer fabs set to be completed in China by the end of next year, Taiwanese wafer foundries are gearing up early in response to the “red alert.”

Faced with the pricing war, semiconductor insiders reveal that mature process foundries in Taiwan are anticipating a roughly 10% reduction in prices in the first quarter. The aim is to seize orders ahead of the competition and maintain high capacity utilization rates.

In contrast to traditional sales discounts, major semiconductor foundries like TSMC, UMC, and PSMC have recently introduced a “diversified” pricing strategy for IC design, including:

1. Volume Discounts: Significant price reductions are offered for orders exceeding ten thousand units, with pricing flexibility increasing as the order quantity grows.
2. Volume Tied Pricing: Maintaining a certain order volume, pricing has a degree of flexibility based on market conditions.
3. Deferred Wafer Delivery: Allowing the extension of the original wafer delivery timeline by one year or even longer, providing IC design firms with flexibility and reduced pressure when placing orders.
4. Dynamic Pricing: Rapid negotiations for urgent orders, reducing the risk of volume pressure for IC designers, albeit with relatively limited price flexibility.
5. Wafer Bank: Transforming wafers into semi-finished products stored in foundries, facilitating on-demand packaging and delivery when needed.

These initiatives are strategically positioned to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in consumer electronics demand next year.

Insiders reveal that due to the sluggish market conditions in the first quarter and the impact of an upcoming extended holiday, demand for the next quarter may not just be “cool” but could freeze.

Industry experts characterize this downturn as an “L-shaped bottom,” and if orders are taken by Chinese foundries before the recovery, Taiwanese foundries will lose out on the subsequent rebound. Consequently, the three major mature process wafer foundries in Taiwan are compelled to lower prices in advance, with an estimated price reduction of around 10% for the next quarter. However, the foundries refrain from commenting on pricing.

Historically, major domestic mature process fabs maintained stable prices but offered discounts by shipping more wafers than ordered. In an effort to boost high capacity utilization and secure orders early, these fabs will no longer stick to stable pricing in the first quarter of next year.

Instead, they have adopted a direct price reduction of 10% for orders exceeding 10,000 wafers. IC design companies estimate that as benchmark fabs initiate price reductions, other industry players will inevitably follow suit.

While the extent of price reduction varies depending on products and processes, an average price reduction of 10-20% for wafer foundry services in the first quarter of next year is anticipated.

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• TrendForce Foresees China’s Mature Wafer Processes to Expand to 33% by 2027, Japan Secures Advanced Processes

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Recent reports from the IC design industry suggest that TSMC, the leading semiconductor foundry, is contemplating a slight price concession for certain mature processes next year, marking a return after three years. Despite its reputation for firm pricing, TSMC’s willingness to make concessions is seen as a response to a decrease in capacity utilization. According to UDN News, this shift may indicate the broader trend of semiconductor foundries facing pricing pressures due to lower capacity utilization.

Known for its stable pricing with minimal fluctuations, TSMC typically offers single-digit percentage annual concessions to clients. The reported concession for specific mature processes is estimated to be around 2%. TSMC, however, declined to comment on these pricing adjustments.

Several IC design companies have confirmed ongoing negotiations with TSMC regarding price concessions for the upcoming year. One disclosed that TSMC’s concession method involves settling after the completion of a full quarter’s production, offsetting the next quarter’s mask costs. This approach allows for low single-digit percentage concessions in the following quarters.

Industry sources suggest that other semiconductor foundries have already taken significant measures, such as direct price reductions on large orders and providing additional free wafer allocations, aiming to boost capacity utilization. Chinese chipmakers initiated price reductions earlier and more aggressively than their Taiwanese counterparts, maintaining TSMC’s relatively firm pricing.

The news of TSMC considering concessions for certain mature processes, while not a direct price reduction, holds indicative significance. It is likely to exert pricing pressure on other industry players with mature processes before the peak season arrives in the latter half of next year.

During the semiconductor shortage in recent years, TSMC initially refrained from raising prices. As a result, its pricing remained relatively lower, even the lowest, compared to other industry players who significantly increased their prices. TSMC reportedly canceled concessions in 2021 and 2022 and initiated a rare price increase at the beginning of 2023, rumored to be in the range of 3% to 6%.

However, with the semiconductor market reversing, the supply chain has been gradually adjusting inventory since the second half of 2022. In the first half of this year, TSMC reportedly introduced an “increase quantity feedback plan,” offering additional mature process wafer allocations for orders reaching a certain quantity.

Although TSMC relies on advanced processes for over 50% of its revenue, with mature processes not being its primary focus, they remain a market consideration.

(Image: TSMC)