Insights
DRAM Spot Market:
The spot market has shown no demand turnaround this week, so prices there are stagnant. Unlike the situation in the contract market, suppliers are not collectively attempting to moderate the price decline in the spot market due to the lack of a notable rebound in the sales of consumer electronics. Also, high inventories held by module houses are keeping spot prices on a downward trajectory. On the whole, spot prices of DDR4 and DDR5 products continue to show daily drops. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.07% from US$1.461 last week to US$1.460 this week.
NAND Flash Spot Market:
The spot market is seen with a recovery of purchase willingness this week due to the power outage at SK hynix, though TrendForce’s survey confirms that the particular incident has not yielded any impact towards market supply. Low-priced transactions no longer exist among spot prices of NAND Flash after suppliers’ significant drop of production in 2H23, and the declination that lasted for several consecutive weeks is now halted. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.440.
News
According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, JPMorgan’s latest analysis reveals that AI demand will remain robust in the second half of the year. Encouragingly, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expansion progress is set to exceed expectations, with production capacity projected to reach 28,000 to 30,000 wafers per month by the end of next year.
The trajectory of CoWoS capacity expansion is anticipated to accelerate notably in the latter half of 2024. This trend isn’t limited to TSMC alone; other players outside the TSMC are also actively expanding their CoWoS-like production capabilities to meet the soaring demands of AI applications.
Gokul Hariharan, Head of Research for JPMorgan Taiwan, highlighted that industry surveys indicate strong and unabated AI demand in the latter half of the year. Shortages amounting to 20% to 30% are observed with CoWoS capacity being a key bottleneck and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) also facing supply shortages.
JPMorgan’s estimates indicate that Nvidia will account for 60% of the overall CoWoS demand in 2023. TSMC is expected to produce around 1.8 to 1.9 million sets of H100 chips, followed by significant demand from Broadcom, AWS’ Inferentia chips, and Xilinx. Looking ahead to 2024, TSMC’s continuous capacity expansion is projected to supply Nvidia with approximately 4.1 to 4.2 million sets of H100 chips.
Apart from TSMC’s proactive expansion of CoWoS capacity, Hariharan predicts that other assembly and test facilities are also accelerating their expansion of CoWoS-like capacities.
For instance, UMC is preparing to have a monthly capacity of 5,000 to 6,000 wafers for the interposer layer by the latter half of 2024. Amkor is expected to provide a certain capacity for chip-on-wafer stacking technology, and ASE Group will offer chip-on-substrate bonding capacity. However, these additional capacities might face challenges in ramping up production for the latest products like H100, potentially focusing more on older-generation products like A100 and A800.
(Photo credit: TSMC)
News
According to a report from Taiwan’s Economic Daily, the construction of TSMC’s 2-nanometer fab in the Central Taiwan Science Park (CSTP) is confirmed to be delayed until next year due to land acquisition and construction timelines.
The Taiwan Central Science Park Administration indicated that this project has been delayed by a year and a half, and the operational schedule is now too tight. After receiving approval from the Taichung City government, it still needs to undergo review by the Construction and Planning Agency Ministry of the Interior. It is anticipated that the urban planning announcement by the Taichung City government will be made by the end of the year, a prerequisite for initiating land acquisition procedures. However, meeting this year’s end deadline for land acquisition is now deemed unfeasible.
The Central Science Park Administration was notified by the Taichung City government today that the expansion project for Phase 2 of the CSTP, crucial for TSMC’s 2-nanometer fab, has been scheduled for urban planning review on the 25th of this month.
Due to repeated delays in the urban planning approval process for the CSTP Phase 2 expansion, TSMC recently made the decision to plan for the construction of a 2-nanometer fab in Kaohsiung.
It’s worth noting that the inclusion of the CSTP Phase 2 expansion project in this month’s urban planning review hinges on TSMC’s announcement of its 2-nanometer fab plans in Kaohsiung. The breakthrough came after Taiwan Power Company and Taiwan Water Corporation finally issued assurances that TSMC’s CSTP 2-nanometer fab’s development and operation would not compromise the assurance of power and water supply for Taichung residents, which provided a turning point for the project.
(Photo credit: TSMC)
News
According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, Foxconn Group has achieved another triumph in its AI endeavors. The company has secured orders for over 50% of NVIDIA’s HGX GPU base boards, marking the first instance of such an achievement. Adding to this success, Foxconn had previously acquired an order for another NVIDIA DGX GPU base board, solidifying its pivotal role in NVIDIA’s two most crucial AI chip base board orders.
The report highlights that in terms of supply chain source, Foxconn Group stands as the exclusive provider of NVIDIA’s AI chip modules (GPU Modules). As for NVIDIA’s AI motherboards, the suppliers encompass Foxconn, Quanta, Inventec, and Super Micro.
Industry experts analyze that DGX and HGX are currently NVIDIA’s two most essential AI servers, and Foxconn Group has undertaken the monumental task of fulfilling the large order for NVIDIA’s AI chipboards through its subsidiary, Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII). Having previously secured orders for NVIDIA’s DGX base boards, Foxconn Group has now garnered additional orders from FII for the HGX base boards. This expanded supply constitutes more than half of the total, solidifying Foxconn Group’s role as a primary supplier for NVIDIA’s two critical AI chip base board orders.
Furthermore, Foxconn’s involvement doesn’t end with AI chip modules, base boards, and motherboards. The company’s engagement extends downstream to servers and server cabinets, creating a vertically integrated approach that covers the entire AI ecosystem.
(Photo credit: Nvidia)
News
According to the news from Mydrivers.com, TSMC announced its ambitious plans for constructing cutting-edge 4nm and 3nm chip fabs in the United States. The move is expected to generate tens of thousands of job opportunities in the US job market. However, TSMC’s timeline for commencing production at its inaugural 4nm fab has been pushed back from 2024 to 2025. The attributed cause behind this delay is the insufficient availability of skilled American workers, causing setbacks in equipment installation.
This situation has led to a heated dispute between TSMC and local labor unions. TSMC’s assertion of a skilled worker deficit in the US has sparked disagreement from the unions. They assert that TSMC’s stance is a pretext for bringing in lower-wage overseas labor to vie for domestic employment opportunities. TSMC, on the other hand, refutes these claims, emphasizing that employing local staff on assignment doesn’t undermine their US-based operations or recruitment efforts.
Apart from the skill-related quandary, the delay in TSMC’s factory plans may have an underlying factor – the scorching conditions in Phoenix, Arizona. Sources report that the city has experienced an unbroken streak of over 20 days with temperatures hovering around 43 degrees Celsius. Notably, this heat wave has raised internal questioning within TSMC about the wisdom of selecting a desert-adjacent location for their facility.
According to this industry insider, the intense heat seemingly played a role in impeding progress. The sweltering climate of over 40 degrees Celsius undoubtedly hampers worker productivity, particularly for outdoor tasks.
The informer indicated that TSMC had an alternative option when choosing a location for its US facility. Aside from Arizona, they could have set up shop in Portland, the capital of Oregon, which is also a hub for the semiconductor industry. However, TSMC’s rationale for settling in Arizona remains undisclosed.
Notably, Phoenix, Arizona, is also a focal point for Intel’s chip investments, with the company injecting 20 billion USD into the establishment of new wafer fabs over the past couple of years.