DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of chips in the lower price range have started to elevate this week as some NAND Flash suppliers are very committed to raising their spot prices. On the whole, there has been some stabilization of DRAM spot prices, and the overall volume of spot transactions has also increased a bit. Looking ahead in the short term, it remains to be seen whether suppliers’ ongoing production cuts will spur buyers to stock up. However, spot prices are expected to remain mostly flat until the end of this year. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.28% from US$1.450 last week to US$1.454 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Buyers, concerned over the cessation of low prices, are continuously proposing order inquiries, though they are hesitant towards following up on prices and hoarding inventory during actual transactions. Continuity of transaction dynamics is not apparent in the spot market, where several packaged dies are seeing repeated fluctuations. Compared to the panicked purchases over the past several weeks, buyers have now composed themselves, and are deciding on procurements based on the recovery of demand. Wafer remains as the category with a clearer inflation tendency, where 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed 2.02% in the spot market this week, arriving at US$1.620.

According to a report by Reuters on September 5, 2023, in a bid to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry and achieve semiconductor self-reliance, the Chinese government is planning to launch the third phase of the “Big Fund,” with a capital infusion of approximately 300 billion Chinese Yuan (about 41 billion US Dollars).

TrendForce Insights:

• The Big Fund’s Expanding Scope and Potentially Aggressive Third Phase Investment

The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, commonly referred to as the “Big Fund,” originated from the Chinese State Council’s “Outline for the Promotion of National Integrated Circuit Industry Development” issued in June 2014. Its ultimate goal is to bring China’s semiconductor industry up to international standards by 2030 and nurture a group of companies to become international Tier 1 suppliers.

In September 2014, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund was officially established, raising a total of 138.7 billion Chinese Yuan, with a primary focus on semiconductor manufacturing and secondary emphasis on design and testing. After five years, the second phase of the fund was organized in October 2019, with its scale expanding to 204.1 billion Chinese Yuan, with a further focus on equipment and materials.

Now, just four years after the second phase, there are reports of China planning to launch the third phase, with a fundraising target increased to 300 billion Chinese Yuan. This indicates that China, faced with semiconductor technology restrictions led by the United States, is increasing its efforts to support the semiconductor industry. The investment strategy for the third phase may be even more aggressive compared to the previous two phases.

• Equipment, Materials, and EDA Remain Key Areas of Investment in the Third Phase

The second phase of the Big Fund exhibited a greater emphasis on the upstream segments of the semiconductor industry, allowing for comprehensive coverage of China’s domestic semiconductor supply chain. However, due to the high technical barriers in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, materials, EDA, and other upstream areas, which are still dominated by a few manufacturers in the global supply chain, short-term investments may not yield immediate results for China’s domestic supply chain.

Additionally, in the face of external technology restrictions, it has become more challenging for China’s semiconductor upstream supply chain to achieve technological breakthroughs through mergers, acquisitions, or attracting foreign talent. Consequently, it is expected that the third phase of the Big Fund will expand its support for Chinese domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment, materials, and EDA software providers, with a particular focus on key players such as NAURA, AMEC, SMEE, NSIC, Kempur, Jingrui, Empyrean, among others.

With the increasing demand for massive computing in fields such as AI, communication, and autonomous vehicles, the evolution of integrated circuits (ICs) has reached a physical limit under the premise of Moore’s Law. How can this limit be surpassed? The answer lies in the realm of optics. Currently, many domestic and international companies are actively embracing “Silicon Photonics” technology. When electronics meet photons, it not only addresses the signal transmission loss issue but is also considered a key technology that could usher in a new era, potentially revolutionizing the future world.

Integrated circuits (ICs) cram millions of transistors onto a single chip, performing various complex calculations. Silicon Photonics, on the other hand, represents integrated “light” paths, where light-conductive pathways are consolidated. In simple terms, it is a technology that converts “electronic signals” into “optical signals” on a silicon platform, facilitating the transmission of both electrical and optical signals.

As technology rapidly advances and computer processing speeds increase, communication between chips has become a critical factor in computing performance. For instance, when ChatGPT was first launched, there were issues with lag and interruptions during the question and answer process, which were related to data transmission problems. Therefore, as AI technology continues to evolve, maintaining computational speed is a crucial aspect of embracing the AI era.

Silicon Photonics has the potential to enhance the speed of optoelectronic transmission, addressing the signal loss and heat issues associated with copper wiring in current computer components. Consequently, semiconductor giants such as TSMC and Intel have already invested in related research and development efforts. In this context, we interviewed Dr. Fang Yen Hsiang, director of the Opto-Electronics Micro Device & System Application Division and Electronic and Optoelectronic System Research Laboratories at the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), to gain insights into this critical technology.

What Is the Relationship Between Silicon Photonics and Optical Transceivers?

An optical transceiver module comprises various components, including optical receivers, amplifiers, modulators, and more. In the past, these components were individually scattered on a PCB (printed circuit board). However, to reduce power consumption, increase data transmission speed, and minimize transmission loss and signal delay, these components have been integrated into a single silicon chip. Fang emphasizes that this integration is the core of Silicon Photonics.

Integrated Circuits’ Next Step: The Three Stages of Silicon Photonics

• Silicon Photonics Stage 1: Upgrading from Traditional Pluggable Modules

Silicon Photonics has been quietly developing for over 20 years. The traditional Silicon Photonics pluggable optical transceiver modules look very much like USB interfaces and connect to two optical fibers—one for incoming and one for outgoing light. However, the electrical transmission path in pluggable modules had a long distance before reaching the switch inside the server. This resulted in significant signal loss at high speeds. To minimize this loss, Silicon Photonics components have been moved closer to the server’s switch, shortening the electrical transmission path. Consequently, the original pluggable modules now only contain optical fibers.

This approach aligns with the actively developing “Co-Packaged Optics” (CPO) technology in the industry. The main idea is to assemble electronic integrated circuits (EIC) and photonic integrated circuits (PIC) onto the same substrate, creating a co-packaged board that integrates chips and modules. This co-packaging, known as CPO light engines (depicted in figure “d” below), replaces optical transceivers and brings optical engines closer to CPU/GPU chips (depicted in figure “d” as chips). This reduces transmission paths, minimizes transmission loss, and reduces signal delay.

According to ITRI, this technology reduces costs, increases data transmission by over 8 times, provides more than 30 times the computing power, and saves 50% in power consumption. However, the integration of chipsets is still a work in progress, and refining CPO technology will be the next important step in the development of Silicon Photonics.

• Solving the CPO Bottleneck and Beyond – Silicon Photonics Stage 2: Addressing CPU/GPU Transmission Issues

Currently, Silicon Photonics primarily addresses the signal delay challenges of plug-in modules. As technology progresses, the next stage will involve solving the electrical signal transmission issues between CPUs and GPUs. Academics point out that chip-to-chip communication is primarily based on electrical signals. Therefore, the next step is to enable internal chip-to-chip communication between GPUs and CPUs using optical waveguides, converting all electrical signals into optical signals to accelerate AI computations and address the current computational bottleneck.

• Silicon Photonics Ultimate Stage 3: The Arrival of the All-Optical Network (AON) Era

As technology advances even further, we will usher in the era of the “All-Optical Network” (AON). This means that all chip-to-chip communication will rely on optical signals, including random storage, transmission, switching, and processing, all of which will be transmitted as optical signals. Japan has already been actively implementing Silicon Photonics in preparation for the full transition to all-optical networks in this context.

Where Does Silicon Photonics Currently Face Technological Challenges?

Currently, Silicon Photonics faces several challenges related to component integration. First and foremost is the issue of communication. Dr. Fang Yen Hsiang provides an example: semiconductor manufacturers understand electronic processes, but because the performance of photonic components is sensitive to factors such as temperature and path length, and because linewidth and spacing have a significant impact on optical signal transmission, a communication platform is needed. This platform would provide design specifications, materials, parameters, and other information to facilitate communication between electronic and photonic manufacturers.

Furthermore, Silicon Photonics is currently being applied in niche markets, and various packaging processes and material standards are still being established. Most of the wafer foundries that provide Silicon Photonics chip fabrication belong to the realm of customized services and may not be suitable for use by other customers. The lack of a unified platform could hinder the development of Silicon Photonics technology.

In addition to the lack of a common platform, high manufacturing costs, integrated light sources, component performance, material compatibility, thermal effects, and reliability are also challenges in Silicon Photonics manufacturing processes. With ongoing technological progress and innovation, it is expected that these bottlenecks will be overcome in the coming years to a decade.

This article is from TechNews, a collaborative media partner of TrendForce.

(Photo credit: Google)

According to the news from ChinaTimes, Qualcomm announced on the 11th that it has reached a three-year agreement with Apple to supply 5G communication chips for Apple’s smartphones from 2024 to 2026. This also implies that Apple’s efforts to develop its own 5G modem chips may fall through, and the contract manufacturer TSMC stands to benefit the most.

Qualcomm did not disclose the value of this deal but mentioned that the terms of the agreement are similar to previous ones. Previous supply agreements have been highly profitable for Qualcomm but costly for Apple. According to UBS estimates from last month, Qualcomm’s sales of modem chips to Apple in the previous fiscal year amounted to $7.26 billion, accounting for approximately 16% of the company’s revenue.

This also highlights that Apple’s progress in developing modem chips may not be as expected, leading to a delay in their use in their flagship smartphones. Currently, Apple’s iPhones use 5G modem chips from Qualcomm.

Only a few companies worldwide have the capability to produce communication chips, including Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung. In 2019, Apple acquired Intel’s smartphone modem business for $1 billion, along with 2,200 employees and a series of patents. Intel faced difficulties in developing 5G modem chips, resulting in annual losses of around $1 billion.

The market expects Apple to gradually reduce its reliance on third-party chip suppliers. Qualcomm originally estimated that by 2023, their 5G chips would make up only 20% of iPhones. However, Qualcomm’s CFO stated in November of the previous year that “most” of Apple’s phones in 2023 would contain their chips.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230912000097-260202?chdtv)

According to a report by Taiwanese media Money DJ, after establishing a stable position as a major supplier for NVIDIA GPU baseboard, Wistron has secured orders for AMD MI300 baseboards. Reliable sources indicate that Wistron has expanded its involvement beyond AMD baseboards and entered the module assembling segment.

In addition to NVIDIA and AMD, Wistron has also entered the Intel AI chip module and baseboard supply chain, encompassing orders from the three major AI chip manufacturers.

The NVIDIA AI server supply chain includes GPU modules, GPU baseboards, motherboards, server systems, complete server cabinets, and more. Wistron holds a significant share in GPU baseboard supply and is also involved in server system assembly.

Currently, NVIDIA commands a 70% market share in AI chips, but various chip manufacturers are eager to compete. Both AMD and Intel have introduced corresponding solutions. While Wistron was previously rumored to have entered AMD baseboard supply, it has also ventured into AMD GPU module assembling, serving as the sole source, according to reliable sources.

Regarding the news of Wistron’s involvement in AMD and Intel chip manufacturing, the company has chosen not to respond to market rumors.

(Photo credit: Google)