Ahead of TSMC’s upcoming third-quarter earnings call this Thursday, a report by the Commercial Times gives a heads-up on the foundry giant’s outlook of 3nm orders next year. With NVIDIA and AMD ramping up their next-gen AI accelerators, combined with the strong demand from smartphone chips, orders for TSMC’s 3nm node are set to see a surge in 2025, the report indicates.

According to analysts cited by the report, most flagship smartphone chips are expected to be manufactured with 3nm next year. For instance, Apple’s A19 Pro is said to adopt TSMC’s N3P process, while the Android phones are likely to follow suit.

In terms of the demand from AI accelerators, the report notes that AMD’s MI350 series will likely be manufactured with the 3nm node, which is going to benefit TSMC.

It is worth noting that according to another report by Commercial Times, at Advancing AI 2024 last week, AMD CEO Lisa Su highlighted the company’s close partnership with TSMC, saying that she would be glad to see the CHIPS Act bringing more manufacturing lines back to the U.S.

Sources cited by Commercial Times suggest that for now, AMD has no plans to collaborate with chip makers other than TSMC, and that the company is currently conducting a qualification assessment for chip production at TSMC’s Arizona fab (Fab 21).

On the other hand, Commercial Times indicates that NVIDIA’s orders on TSMC will likely see an increase next year, which would further tighten the foundry giant’s capacity in 3nm and 5nm. NVIDIA’s R-series GPUs are reportedly to be manufactured with TSMC’s 3nm as well, the report notes, but it would not be released until 2026.

TSMC is expected to see strong 3nm demands from other tech giants in 2025 as well. According to the report, Intel is said to outsource most of its Lunar Lake chips to TSMC, while the AI PC chip MediaTek co-develops with NVIDIA is also rumored to be built using the 3nm process. The report states that this chip is expected to debut in the second quarter of next year and enter mass production in the third quarter.

Sources cited by the report note that as clients turn to place orders on 3nm for their latest AI accelerators, foundry capacity will further be strained. Notably, TSMC’s CoWoS packaging reportedly allows interposers reaching 3.3 times for its maximum reticle size to manufacture chips such as NVIDIA’s B200, AMD’s MI300, or Intel’s Gaudi 3, with the number of chips produced on per interposer becoming fewer.

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• [News] Intel Shifts to TSMC for Chip Production: A Looming Threat for AMD?
• [News] NVIDIA and MediaTek Reportedly Team up on 3nm AI PC Processors, with Tape-outs Expected This Month

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Japanese NAND flash memory giant Kioxia had reportedly planned to delay its October IPO. According to the latest report from Reuters, Kioxia’s major shareholder, U.S. investment firm Bain Capital, abandoned the October IPO plan after investors valued the company at only half of its target.

Reuters reported on the 11th that sources familiar with the matter said investors, citing the slow recovery of the semiconductor market, requested Bain Capital to slash Kioxia’s IPO valuation (market cap at the time of listing) to around half of the target value. This led Bain to abandon the plan to list Kioxia at the end of October.

The report cited two sources stating that while Bain Capital had set a target valuation of 1.5 trillion yen, investors valued the company at around 800 billion yen, far below the initial goal. One source added that during discussions with institutional investors in August and September, most agreed that the memory market still needed time to fully recover.

Although Bain Capital and Kioxia will continue to seek an opportune moment for the IPO, most market insiders believe that listing within this year will be challenging.

When the delay in Kioxia’s IPO was first reported in late September, TrendForce noted that the NAND flash market began to show signs of a price reversal in the third quarter of 2024 after three consecutive quarters of profit recovery.

Along with weak consumer demand, some companies have also slowed down their AI server deployments, potentially leading to an oversupply. With investors expressing concerns about the industry’s outlook, Kioxia’s decision to go public at this time may not yield a favorable valuation. The company has therefore opted to strategically delay the IPO, waiting for a market recovery.

According to TrendForce data, Kioxia maintained its position as the third-largest NAND flash brand by revenue in Q2, with a market share of 13.8%. Samsung led the market with 36.9%, followed by SK Group at 22.1%.

(Photo credit: Kioxia)

Over the past few years, major companies around the world have been investing in 8-inch SiC production lines, and these investments are now gradually becoming operational.

Global Layout: 14 New 8-Inch SiC Factories

In the global SiC market, companies such as STMicroelectronics (ST), Onsemi, Infineon, Wolfspeed, ROHM, BOSCH, Fuji Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) and EPISIL, Silan Microelectronics, and UNT have all announced plans to build their own 8-inch SiC chip factories, as shown in the image. Many of these companies are also making strides in upstream substrate and epitaxial material segments.

STMicroelectronics (ST): ST announced on May 31 this year the construction of a new 8-inch SiC plant in Catania, Italy, consolidating all aspects of the SiC production process. The new plant is expected to start production in 2026 and reach full capacity by 2033, with a maximum capacity of 15,000 wafers per week and an estimated total investment of around 5 billion EUR.

The 8-inch silicon carbide (SiC) manufacturing plant in Chongqing, China, jointly established by ST and China’s Sanan Optoelectronics, will become ST’s third SiC production center. The project was announced on June 7, 2023, and is expected to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2025, with full completion anticipated by 2028.

Onsemi: Onsemi’s SiC wafer plant in Bucheon, South Korea, completed its expansion in 2023 and plans to transition to 8-inch production by 2025 after completing technology verification. By then, capacity will be expanded to 10 times the current scale.

Infineon: Announced on August 8, 2024, that the first phase of its 8-inch SiC power semiconductor wafer plant in Kulim, Malaysia, has officially started operations, with large-scale production expected by 2025.

Wolfspeed: Wolfspeed has the world’s first and largest 8-inch SiC plant located in Mohawk Valley, New York, which officially opened in April 2022. As of June this year, the factory has achieved a 20% wafer utilization rate.

In January 2023, Wolfspeed and automotive parts supplier ZF announced plans to build the world’s largest and most advanced 8-inch SiC device manufacturing factory in Saarland, Germany. This project has been delayed and is now expected to start at the earliest in 2025.

ROHM: Built a new SiC plant in Chikugo, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan, which started mass production in 2022 and plans to transition from 6-inch to 8-inch wafer production by 2025. In July 2023, ROHM announced plans to start producing 8-inch SiC substrates at its second factory in Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan, by the end of 2024.

BOSCH: BOSCH’s factory in Reutlingen, Germany, started 6-inch SiC wafer production in 2021, with 8-inch SiC wafers currently also produced at this factory. The factory in Roseville, USA, is expected to start 8-inch SiC wafer production by 2026.

Mitsubishi Electric: Announced in late May this year that the 8-inch SiC plant in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, will be completed by September 2025, with production moved up to November 2025 from April 2026.

Fuji Electric: In January this year, Fuji Electric announced a 200 billion yen investment over the next three years (fiscal years 2024 to 2026) for SiC power semiconductor production, including an 8-inch SiC capacity at its Matsumoto factory in Japan, expected to start production in 2027.

UNT: Built its first 8-inch SiC MOSFET wafer production line in Yuecheng District, Shaoxing, and completed the engineering batch in April this year, with mass production expected next year.

Silan Microelectronics (Silan): Officially launched China’s first 8-inch SiC power device chip manufacturing line project in Xiamen on June 18 this year, with a total investment of 12 billion RMB.

The project will be built in two phases, with an annual production capacity of 720,000 8-inch SiC power device chips. The first phase investment is 7 billion RMB, expected to complete the initial connection by the end of the third quarter of 2025, with trial production in the fourth quarter and an annual yield target of 20,000 wafers. The second phase investment is about 5 billion RMB.

Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) & EPISIL: VIS announced on September 10 a plan to invest 2.48 billion NTD to acquire a 13% stake in EPISIL. The two companies will collaborate on the development and production of 8-inch SiC wafer technology, with mass production expected in the second half of 2026.

Thailand’s First SiC Factory: Recently, FT1 Corporation, a joint venture in Thailand, invested 11.5 billion THB (350 million USD) to build Thailand’s first SiC factory using technology transferred from a Korean chip manufacturer to produce 6-inch and 8-inch wafers. The factory is expected to start production in the first quarter of 2027 to meet the growing demand in automotive, data center, and energy storage markets.

Conclusion

From the aforementioned 14 SiC factory (12 under construction), only Wolfspeed’s Mohawk Valley plant can currently provide 8-inch SiC wafers in the short term. Other manufacturers are expected to start supplying 8-inch SiC wafers gradually from next year.

After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast, Samsung’s next move has become the center of market attention. According to a report by Business Korea, to turn the situation around, Samsung may shift its strategy focus to early HBM4 mass production, as well as targeting advanced foundry solutions below 2nm.

A couple of days ago, Samsung warned its third-quarter profit would probably reach 9.1 trillion won, falling short of market expectations. Jeon Young-hyun, the head of Samsung’s Device Solutions (DS) division, issued an unusual public apology in the meantime.

Citing industry sources, Business Korea notes that Samsung’s DS division is expected to post an operating profit of around 5 trillion won (about USD 3.8 billion) for the third quarter, which is reportedly below the market expectation of 6 trillion won. The figure is significantly lower than SK hynix’s projected quarterly operating profit, which is expected to be in the high 6 trillion won range, according to the report.

Samsung May Accelerate HBM4 Progress to Turn the Tide

The series of setbacks have prompted the struggling giant to take action. As Samsung’s lackluster performance could be attributed to its delay in supplying NVIDIA with its 12-layer HBM3e product, industry insiders cited by Business Korea suggest that accelerating the mass production of HBM4, as well as introducing 2nm foundry solutions, could just be the remedies Samsung needs.

In terms of the HBM market, in which Samsung is lagging behind SK hynix on HBM3e verification, the report indicates that Samsung is expected to prioritize the early mass production of HBM4, which is projected to become mainstream in 2025.

A source familiar with the situation told Business Korea that HBM orders from companies other than NVIDIA would rise next year. Major tech firms, including AMD, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Qualcomm, are also working on AI semiconductors. Therefore, it does not necessarily mean that Samsung should concentrate solely on NVIDIA, and it could accelerate supply contracts with NVIDIA’s competitors, the report notes.

TrendForce’s latest findings indicate that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all submitted their first HBM3e 12-Hi samples in the first half and third quarter of 2024, respectively, and are currently undergoing validation. SK hynix and Micron are making faster progress and are expected to complete validation by the end of this year.

2nm Advancements Would be Another Focus

On the other hand, in terms of the foundry sector, the report suggests that Samsung is expected to further enhance its ‘turnkey order’ strategy. This approach addresses concerns about technology leakage while providing HBM as part of a comprehensive package.

According to the report, Samsung is set to begin mass production of its GAA 2nm process in 2025. The company also aims to complete the development of the 2nm process with Backside Power Delivery Network (BSPDN) technology by 2027. Having secured 2nm orders from Japan’s AI unicorn Preferred Networks (PFN) and U.S. AI semiconductor company Ambarella, Samsung reportedly plans to seek collaboration with major tech firms.

To attract customers, Samsung will host the “Foundry Forum 2024” online on October 24. Previously scheduled to be held in Beijing, the event will now be conducted virtually, which aligns with the company’s efforts to reduce costs. Will it make further progress in advanced nodes? The whole world is watching.

Read more

• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives
• [News] Samsung Foundry Faces Yield Struggles and Client Losses, External Push for Spinoff and U.S. Listing

(Photo credit: Samsung)

After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast earlier this week, Samsung’s head of Device Solutions (DS) division, Jun Young-hyun, had issued an unusual apology. Now the struggling giant seems to be making its next move. According to the latest report by the Korea Economic Daily, the company is set to significantly reduce its chip executive positions and reorganize its semiconductor-related operations.

The report notes that Samsung is currently auditing the memory department within the DS division, which manages its semiconductor business. It is worth noting that the review is said to be led by Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun himself, while the audit may result in substantial job cuts at the executive level.

According to insiders cited by the report, a major executive reshuffle is planned as part of the company’s year-end personnel changes.

For more details, the report indicates that in the year-end reshuffle, Samsung is expected to overhaul the leadership of its three core business units within the DS division, which encompasses memory, foundry, and System LSI. Moreover, key positions, such as the chief technology officer and heads of manufacturing and technology, are also subject to change, according to sources cited by the report.

According to the information cited by the report, as of the second quarter, Samsung’s DS division had 438 executives, making up 38% of the company’s total 1,164 executives. Notably, this number is more than double that of the current HBM leader, SK hynix, which has 199 executives.

According to sources cited by Business Korea, Samsung is also expected to simplify its foundry operations and restructure the Semiconductor Research Center, which is responsible for developing future chip technologies.

Although Samsung did not provide a detailed performance breakdown by division, analysts cited by the report estimate that its foundry business likely suffered losses of approximately 1.5 trillion won in the third quarter. On the other hand, its core memory business would likely to generate an operating profit of 5.5 trillion won, which marks the first time the company’s memory profit falls short of SK hynix’s, the report suggests.

Read more

• [News] Samsung Reportedly Set to Cut About 10% of Jobs in Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand
• [News] Samsung Foundry Faces Yield Struggles and Client Losses, External Push for Spinoff and U.S. Listing

(Photo credit: Samsung)