According to TrendForce’s latest investigation, Chinese foundries have already suspended plans to expand production capacity for advanced processes after the US government began restricting the exportation of equipment and technical support for processes related to non-planar architectures. TrendForce believes that a further tightening of the restrictions on lithography equipment will mainly affect mature processes, especially the 28nm. Chinese foundries might proceed more slowly in adding new production capacity or raising output for the 28nm process due to the prolonged reviews on their equipment purchases.

TrendForce semiconductor analyst, Joanne Chiao, said that Chinese semiconductor companies have already suspended the development of chips featuring the GAA architecture (i.e., nodes that are generally ≤3nm) after the US government began restricting the exportation of EDA tools and related technical support. If we talk about the FinFET architecture that Chinese foundries are able to produce for now, it is possible to achieve the faster computing speed of the more advanced chips by combining multiple lower-end chips. However, it might also be very challenging to raise the production yield rate of a solution that integrates multiple chips, not to mention that the power consumption of such solution might be very high as well.

Seeing the US export control, for now, US government has not imposed restrictions on the exportation of technical support for processes related to planar architectures. On the other hand, Chinese foundries might halt their advanced chip (14nm) production at any time if they encounter an equipment malfunction or another problem that requires technical support from US equipment providers.

At last, Chiao emphasized that the US sanction has definitely accelerated the development of an “all-China” semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. Nevertheless, the world’s top eight semiconductor equipment providers all come from Japan or the US. From the perspective of the foundry industry, it will be hard for China to realize a wholly or mostly native semiconductor supply chain within the foreseeable future.

The market started worrying about the oversupply in semiconductor 2023, when the demand will start growing again depends on two factors: the situation of the macroeconomy and the inventory status.

Since foundries’ capacity utilization rates started drop in 3Q22, chip supply as a whole has decreased significantly. This, in turn, has helped limit inventory growth across the supply chain. However, the global economy is still at risk of a mild recession, so consumers may allocate more of their spending to daily necessities. They may also spend more on tourism due to easing of the pandemic. This could lead to weak sales for consumer electronic products.

Not to mention that most consumers already purchased the electronic products that they need for working or studying at home during the pandemic. Assuming that the overall inventory level of the supply chain will return to a healthier level, TrendForce believes that chip demand will begin to rebound to a certain extent in 2Q23. Then, the demand growth will become more obvious from 3Q23 onward. Nevertheless, this demand growth may not be too strong due to uncertainties in the global economy.

If we observe the situation from the perspective of the foundry industry, smartphones represent the largest application segment in terms of wafer consumption. The smartphone supply chain started inventory correction earlier, so demand rebound might be more obvious initially for smartphone-related chips compared with chips used in other consumer devices. On the other hand, with different benchmarks, the demand for HPC chips will show more significant growth compared with the demand for smartphone chips.

On December 6, TSMC held a ceremony for the first tool-in of its new Arizona fab. This event came after the foundry giant had publicized a series of overseas expansion projects. Within Taiwan, TSMC’s recent announcements have caused a stir in public opinion. Concerns have been raised about the possibility of a hollowing out of the island’s semiconductor industry due to a mass exodus of professionals involved in chip manufacturing.

TSMC’s Overseas Expansion Plan

TSMC actually embarked on the path to internationalize its business operations much earlier in 2015, when it made the announcement to build a fab in Nanjing, Mainland China. At that time, the chief reason behind this expansion project was that Huawei had become the second most important client next to Apple. Also, TSMC planned to have its 16nm node serve as the main manufacturing technology of the Nanjing fab. This decision was in line with the semiconductor technology export rules enforced by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs. Specifically, domestic chipmakers are only allowed to deploy “n-1” technologies at overseas manufacturing sites. Despite being in compliance with all domestic laws and regulations, TSMC still attracted a lot of controversies with establishing a base of operation in Mainland China, and there were speculations that more advanced semiconductor technologies will be leaving Taiwan with the “westward expansion”.

Fast-forward to present day, China is not the only one that is focusing on the development of a homegrown semiconductor industry. After witnessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global supply chain, many other countries are reconsidering the importance of semiconductor supply in their own industries. From the US to Japan and European countries, governments have begun to offer various subsidies and market-based incentives in order to entice major semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC to build fabs in their territories.

A detailed survey of TSMC’s overseas expansion activities from 2015 onwards finds that the construction of the Nanjing fab commenced in 2016 a year after the announcement of the project. The fab then celebrated the formal start of mass production with a ceremony in 2018. Two years later, in 2020, TSMC revealed the plan to build a 12-inch wafer fab that deploys advanced nodes in Arizona. Moving into 2021, the foundry giant unveiled two more expansion projects in Japan. The plan to open a “3D IC material R&D center” in Tsukuba (Ibaraki Prefecture) was announced first. Later in October of that same year, TSMC said it will set up a fab in Kumamoto.

Where Will TSMC Go After US?

Regarding the locations of TSMC’s fabs worldwide, TrendForce’s latest research reveals that for 12-inch wafer foundry, TSMC has four fabs in Taiwan, including including two upcoming greenfield projects respectively located in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung. Outside Taiwan, TSMC has one operational 12-inch wafer fabs in Mainland China and two more under construction in the US and Japan. Besides these existing and planned fabs, a close eye is also being kept on TSMC’s possible expansion into the EU states. Germany has long been rumored to be TSMC’s candidate for setting up a fab in Europe. However, Ireland has a lot of potential as well since Intel previously announced its intention to expand its existing manufacturing operation in this country. Currently, TSMC is internally assessing the feasibility of landing a project in Ireland.

Taiwan Still Has Advantages in Talents, Business Culture, and Complete Industry Ecosystem

Going back to the issue of whether TSMC’s overseas expansion activities will negatively affect Taiwan’s semiconductor industry by causing an outward migration of related professionals or a weakening of the industry’s competitive advantage. According to TrendForce analyst Joanne Chiao, the deglobalization trend is gradually emerging in the supply-demand dynamics of the semiconductor market. Based on the latest data, the geographical distribution of TSMC’s production capacity (that is calculated in thousands of 12-inch wafer equivalents per month) for 2022 is estimated as follows: 93% in Taiwan, about 6% in Mainland China, and 1% in the US. The short-term effects of TSMC’s overseas projects will thus be very limited as the majority share of the foundry’s production capacity is going to stay in Taiwan.

As for the effects on the competitiveness of the domestic semiconductor industry in the long run, Chiao believes that deglobalization will lead to a general rise in operating costs for foundries worldwide. This means that every foundry will be facing increasing pressure related to pricing regardless of where they put their fabs. On the other hand, Taiwan’s importance as the world’s main chip production base will diminish somewhat over time because of the deglobalization trend.

Nevertheless, the foundry industry depends on tight relations with clients as well as highly synchronized and meticulous services among all participants across the supply chain. This is where Taiwan shines because the island is home to a complete ecosystem for the foundry industry. All participants in this ecosystem advance together when it comes to upgrading technological capabilities or overcoming technological bottlenecks. Apart from these advantages, a system of management has been well established on the island for the various aspects of fab operation. As foundries keep their fabs running 24/7, they are constantly tested in manpower scheduling. Therefore, they have to rely on locally cultivated talents and local experience that have taken decades to amass. In other words, fabs in Taiwan are performing at the highest level because of the local business and work culture.

（Image credit: TSMC Linkedin）

The government of Taiwan is preparing to launch its version of “the CHIPS Act” to support locally operating companies that develop innovative technologies and have a crucial spot within the global supply chain. A highlight of this legislation is a tax credit scheme: a maximum of 25% for R&D in “forward-looking technologies” and another 5% for investments in advanced manufacturing equipment.

According to the draft of this proposed legislation, companies that play an important role in the global supply chain and engage in technological innovation within the jurisdiction of Taiwan (the Republic of China) are eligible for the aforementioned tax credits if they also meet certain other conditions. As for the limit of the two tax credits, neither one of them can exceed 30% of the business income tax for the current year. Together, they cannot exceed 50% of the same annual business income tax.

Companies that will be applying for the tax credits must meet three general conditions. First, applicants must pay an effective tax rate of at least 15% in accordance with OECD’s minimum tax rules for multinationals. Second, applicants must reach a certain scale for the ratio of R&D spending to revenue (R&D intensity) and equipment-related investments. The minimum thresholds for the R&D intensity and equipment-related investments have yet to be determined and will likely be set within the subsections of the legislation later on. Lastly, applicants must not have incurred a major regulatory violation concerning environmental protection, labor protection, food and drug safety, etc. in the past three years.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs stated in a recent announcement that the island’s industries are deeply enmeshed within the global supply chain. They thus have become the backbone of the global economy and international commerce on account of their “uniqueness” and “irreplaceability”. The ministry added that local industries will have to adapt to the changing landscape of cooperation and competition in order to retain their indispensable role.

The ministry also commented that in the wake of a series of major events that have disrupted the operation of the global supply chain, many countries have initiated industry development policies that seek to improve the resiliency of their key economic sectors and strengthen their national security. These policies tend to emphasize the followings: (1) the formation of an autonomous and stable domestic supply chain; (2) the need to achieve dominance in next-generation technologies; and (3) the provisioning of large subsidies and tax incentives so as to raise domestic production and attract investments from multinationals. The ministry further asserted that as international competition gets fiercer, Taiwan must retain its existing advantages while finding other ways to further consolidate and enhance the positions of its key industries in the global supply chain. Therefore, the government finds it necessary to provide new tax incentives to support this kind of development.

Shipments of CPUs, GPUs, and chipsets have been falling due to the weakening demand for PCs, gaming devices, and cryptocurrency mining machines. This recent development has also constrained the growth of the market for ABF substrates. Currently, the demand situation for this material is exhibiting signs of uncertainty.

Regarding the distribution of the demand for ABF substrates, applications that are driving growth are cloud services, AI, and automotive electronics. CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and switch ICs are chips that are deployed in servers purposed for a wide range of applications related to cloud services and endpoint AI technologies. Meanwhile, other AI-related applications require high-end ASICs. At the same time, more and more high-end SoCs and MCUs are embedded in vehicles. All in all, these aforementioned applications will spur the demand for ABF substrates. Additionally, package size continues to increase for high-performance ICs. This trend, too, will sustain the demand for ABF substrates over the long haul. By contrast, the PC market has matured, so the related demand is shrinking. From a long-term perspective, the influence of the PC market on the demand for ABF substrates will gradually wane.

TrendForce forecasts that the scale of the global market for ABF substrates will expand from US$9.3 billion in 2022 to US$17.1 billion in 2026, thus showing a CAGR of 16.4%. Due to the influence of the US technology export restrictions against China, the demand for ICs purposed for HPC will be higher than expected for the period from 4Q22 to 3Q23. This, in turn, will also further raise the demand for ABF substrates.

Then, starting from 4Q23, exports of HPC chips to China will start to slow down. However, demand will continue to grow for ASICs, AI chips, SoCs, and MCUs at that time. The growth in these application segments will offset some of the negative effect of the US export restrictions on the market for ABF substrates. In terms of the supply-demand dynamics of ABF substrates, a balance will gradually be attained in 2024. However, demand will get stronger in 2025 and 2026, so supply could tighten during that two-year period.