A powerful magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan on the evening of March 16th (CST). Most of northeastern Japan is a production center for global upstream semiconductor raw materials. According to TrendForce investigations, in the main quake zone, only Kioxia’s K1 Fab (located in Kitakami) will face the possibility of a further downgrade to 1Q22 production. Some of the remaining memory or semiconductor companies in the region are conducting machine inspections but the overall impact has been muted.

In terms of memory, the intensity of the earthquake at Kioxia’s K1 Fab reached magnitude 5. When the earthquake occurred, wafer input was partially damaged. At present, K1 Fab has been shut down for inspection. The 1Q22 production capacity of the K1 Fab had been downgraded following the recent contamination incident and accounts for approximately 8% of Kioxia’s 2022 production capacity. Operating under a cloud of possible aftershocks, Kioxia’s capacity utilization rate may be slow to recover in the next week, causing further downward revision of K1 Fab’s 1Q22 production. The remaining Kioxia factories are unaffected, as is Micron’s Hiroshima plant.

Looking at the market spot price, pricing has moved up since February due to the contamination of Kioxia’s raw materials. The Russian-Ukrainian war did not trigger significant upward or downward movements in spot price. After last night’s Fukushima earthquake, pricing remains stable. TrendForce asserts, overall spot demand remains weak and prices are not prone to drastic changes.

In terms of raw wafers, SUMCO’s Yonezawa Plant in Yamagata and Shin-Etsu’s Shirakawa Plant in Fukushima are both within the affected area, experiencing an earthquake intensity of magnitude 5. Due to the extremely high stability required in the crystal growth process, the industry has not yet announced the impact of the quake. TrendForce specifies, in addition to shutdown inspections, damage to machines and silicon wafer input is inevitable. However, in addition to redistributing production plans, buildings were reinforced after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, so overall damage may be minor.

In terms of foundries, there are two 12-inch wafer fabs and two 8-inch wafer fabs in Japan, including UMC Fab12M (12-inch), Tower Uozu (12-inch), Tonami (8-inch), Arai (8 inches), located in Mie, Toyama, and Niigata prefectures, respectively, and separately experiencing quake magnitudes from 1 to 3. At present, these fabs are operating normally and any impact of the quake on the plants are largely insignificant. However, IDM manufacturer Renesas’ Naka plant is within the magnitude 5 zone and they have also shut down and reduced production to confirm the impact of the quake.

The output value of the world’s top 10 foundries in 4Q21 reached US$29.55 billion, or 8.3% growth QoQ, according to TrendForce’s research. This is due to the interaction of two major factors. One is limited growth in overall production capacity. At present, the shortage of certain components for TVs and laptops has eased but there are other peripheral materials derived from mature process such as PMIC, Wi-Fi, and MCU that are still in short supply, precipitating continued fully loaded foundry capacity. Second is rising average selling price (ASP). In the fourth quarter, more expensive wafers were produced in succession led by TSMC and foundries continued to adjust their product mix to increase ASP. In terms of changes in this quarter’s top 10 ranking, Nexchip overtook incumbent DB Hitek to clinch 10th place.

TrendForce believes that the output value of the world’s top ten foundries will maintain a growth trend in 1Q22 but appreciation in ASP will still be the primary driver of said growth. However, since there are fewer first quarter working days in the Greater China Area due to the Lunar New Year holiday and this is the time when some foundries schedule an annual maintenance period, 1Q22 growth rate will be down slightly compared to 4Q21.

Top 5 foundries account for nearly 90% of global market share, Samsung recovers share with advanced processes

Looking at the top five industry players, TSMC’s 4Q21 revenue reached US$15.75 billion, a QoQ increase of 5.8%. Although 5nm revenue spiked thanks to the new iPhone, 7/6nm revenue dropped due to a weak Chinese smartphone market, becoming the only TSMC node in decline in 4Q21, and inducing a contraction in TSMC revenue growth in 4Q21, though TSMC still accounts for more than 50% of global market share. As one of TSMC’s few competitors in advanced processes below 7nm, Samsung strengthened 4Q21 revenue to US$5.54 billion, a quarterly increase of 15.3% owing to the gradual completion of new advanced 5/4nm process capacity and the mass production of new flagship products from major client Qualcomm. Although Samsung’s foundry business has posted record revenue, the slower ramp-up of advanced process capacity continues to erode overall profitability. Therefore, TrendForce believes that improving advanced process capacity and yield in 1Q22 is one of Samsung’s top priorities.

Constrained by limited growth in new production capacity and the fact that the new wave of wafers contracted at the latest pricing has yet to be produced, UMC’s revenue stalled slightly in 4Q21, to US$2.12 billion, up 5.8% QoQ. GlobalFoundries benefited from the release of new production capacity, product mix optimization, and new long-term agreement (LTA) pricing, pushing up ASP performance. Revenue in 4Q22 hit US$1.85 billion, up 8.6% QoQ. SMIC posted 4Q21 revenue of US$1.58 billion, 11.6% QoQ, due to mounting demand for products such as HV, MCU, Ultra Low Power Logic, and Specialty Memory as well as factors such as product mix adjustment and appreciating ASP.

Surpassing DB Hitek, Nexchip officially breaks into the top 10 in 4Q21

The foundries ranked 6th to 9th are HuaHong Group, PSMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and Tower Semiconductor (Tower), respectively. Each has benefiting from factors such as a utilization rate uniformly at full capacity, release of new production capacity, and adjustment of ASP and product mix, sustaining the growth of revenue performance. It is worth mentioning, the acquisition of Tower by Intel netted Intel mature process technologies and a customer base and expanded the diversity and production capacity of its foundry business. However, before this transaction is officially completed, Tower is still considered an independent entity in terms of the accounting process. TrendForce states, after Intel’s foundry business is properly integrated with Tower, Intel will officially enter the ranking of top ten foundries.

Coming in 10th on the top 10 foundry ranking is Nexchip with revenue of US$352 million and a quarterly growth rate of 44.2%, the fastest growth rate among the top ten, and officially surpassed DB Hitek. According to TrendForce investigations, the primary reason Nexchip was able to break into the top 10 in 4Q21 was the company’s diligent production expansion. Nexchip also plans to develop more advanced processes such as the 55/40/28nm nodes and multiple product lines including TDDI, CIS, and MCU, to compensate for its current single product line and limited customer base. Since Nexchip is currently ramping-up operations quickly, its growth performance in 2022 should not be underestimated.

At present, the materials with the most development potential are Wide Band Gap (WBG) semiconductors with high power and high frequency characteristics, including silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), which are mainly used in electric vehicles (EV) and the fast charging battery market. TrendForce research estimates, the output value of third generation power semiconductors will grow from US$980 million in 2021 to US$4.71 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 48%.

SiC is suitable for high-power applications, such as energy storage, wind power, solar energy, EVs, new energy vehicles (NEV) and other industries that utilize highly demanding battery systems. Among these industries, EVs have attracted a great deal of attention from the market. However, most of the power semiconductors used in EVs currently on the market are Si base materials, such as Si IGBT and Si MOSFET. However, as EV battery power systems gradually develop to voltage levels greater than 800V, compared with Si, SiC will produce better performance in high-voltage systems. SiC is expected to gradually replace part of the Si base design, greatly improve vehicle performance, and optimize vehicle architecture. The SiC power semiconductor market is estimated to reach US$3.39 billion by 2025.

GaN is suitable for high-frequency applications, including communication devices and fast charging for mobile phones, tablets, and laptops. Compared with traditional fast charging, GaN fast charging has higher power density, so charging speed is faster within a smaller package that is easier to carry. These advantages have proven attractive to many OEMs and ODMs and several have started rapidly developing this material. The GaN power semiconductor market is estimated to reach US$1.32 billion by 2025.

TrendForce emphasizes that third generation power semiconductor substrates are more difficult to manufacture and more expensive compared to traditional Si bases. Taking advantage of the current development of major substrate suppliers, companies including Wolfspeed, II-VI, and Qromis successively expanded their production capacity and will mass-produce 8-inch substrates in the 2H22. Output value of third generation power semiconductors is estimated to have room for continued growth in the next few years.

Intel and AMD will be releasing new CPUs that support DDR5 DRAM solutions for PCs and servers this year. In response, the DRAM industry led by South Korean suppliers is developing solutions to complement the arrival of the new CPUs. In the midst of the gradual shift to DDR5, DRAM suppliers will also scale back the supply of DDR3 solutions, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. With Korean suppliers accelerating their withdrawal from DDR3 production, Taiwanese suppliers yet to kick off mass production using newly installed capacities, and Chinese suppliers falling short of their expected yield rate, the global supply of DDR3 solutions will undergo an impending decline. With respect to the demand side, however, not only has the supply of networking chips been ramping up, but material shortage issues are also gradually easing. As such, buyers are now procuring DDR3 solutions ahead of time, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in the DDR3 market. TrendForce therefore expects DDR3 DRAM prices to recover from a bearish first quarter and undergo a 0-5% QoQ increase in 2Q22.

On the supply side, Samsung and SK hynix have begun scaling back their DDR3 production while also planning to declare EOL (end of life) for their DDR3 offerings, such as 1/2Gb and 4Gb chips. It should be noted, however, that Micron’s DDR3 solutions will not reach EOL even by 2026, meaning the company will still offer DDR3 solutions long after its two Korean competitors have stopped doing so, according to TrendForce’s understanding. Also worth noting is that Micron is migrating its DDR3 production to a US-based fab that mainly manufactures specialty DRAM solutions. Nevertheless, since this fab’s production capacity will be divided between products for consumer and automotive applications, TrendForce believes that the aforementioned migration will tighten Micron’s supply of consumer DRAM solutions because the US fab will give priority to automotive DRAM solutions that offer a higher gross margin and are currently enjoying surging demand.

Although Taiwan-based DRAM suppliers that focus on promoting DDR3 solutions, namely, Nanya Tech and Winbond, are in the process of capacity expansion, their new production lines will not be operational until 2023-2024. Hence, the contribution from the newly added capacities is not expected to drive up DDR3 supply substantially this year. Chinese suppliers, including CXMT and GigaDevice, are continuing to collaborate in DDR3 development, though their capacity increases and yield rate improvements have both fallen short of market expectations. After being added to the Entity List, JHICC, yet another China-based DRAM supplier, is now dealing with severe restrictions with respect to procuring equipment, making it difficult for JHICC to raise its wafer input. Furthermore, the company has no spare resources that can be allocated to R&D and pilot runs. As a result, JHICC still primarily manufactures DDR4 4Gb chips at its initial 25nm node, with no DDR3 production at the moment.

With regards to demand, DDR3 consumer DRAM is primarily used in end-devices such as STBs and networking products (e.g., GPON, routers, and modems), which do not require high-performance SoCs. While the foundry industry suffered a severe shortage of wafer capacities allocated to logic ICs in 4Q21, production capacities for relatively low-margin chips were noticeably impacted in turn. Along with a preexisting component mismatch situation, most manufacturers found themselves unable to assemble end-devices. Moving into early 2022, however, the supply of certain materials, including those used in foundry operations, saw a gradual improvement. As various components needed for device manufacturing became available after Lunar New Year, certain buyers have once again kicked off their consumer DRAM procurement activities.

In addition, DRAM spot prices shifted from a prior decline to a strong upturn at the end of last year as the Chinese government ordered a month-long lockdown in Xi’an. The ensuing price hike, which has lasted for two months, subsequently led buyers to procure even more DRAM ahead of time in anticipation of further price hikes. Hence, although the demand for end-products has yet to make a full recovery, buyers are now slowly and steadily procuring consumer DRAM in order to avoid either higher upcoming prices or even an inability to secure consumer DRAM inventory.

Regarding rising tensions stemming from the Russian-Ukrainian war, TrendForce indicates that Russia is not one of the Taiwanese foundry industry’s primary markets. Hence, while sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, their impact on Taiwanese foundries will likely remain limited, though the war may potentially result in a decline in sales of end-devices, thereby indirectly reducing manufacturers’ component demand and, subsequently, wafer inputs at foundries.

TrendForce indicates that the smartphone industry will be noticeably affected by the ongoing war. Take the ranking of smartphone brands by market share in Russia and Ukraine last year, for instance; the top three brands sold included Samsung, Xiaomi, and Apple, which had a combined annual sale of about 45 million units for 2021. Since the inception of the armed conflict, there have been continued fluctuations in currency exchange rates, with the Ruble plummeting in value, and this devaluation has been noticeably reflected in retail sales of iPhones. More specifically, the retail price for the iPhone 13 Pro 128 GB has risen by almost 50% in Russia. Such price hikes pertaining to electronic items will likely prompt consumers to reallocate a rising portion of their spending to other daily necessities instead. Therefore, the two countries’ demand for chips is expected to rapidly shrink, in turn leading IC design companies to reduce their wafer input at foundries.

With foundries terminating their supply to Russia, will Chinese companies subsequently benefit from redirected orders?

Although Russia is not a major market for the Taiwanese foundry industry, certain Elbrus-branded chips, used in military and networking applications, are manufactured by TSMC. Notably, the Washington Post indicated that TSMC is no longer manufacturing and shipping Elbrus products, while there have also been rumors suggesting Chinese semiconductor companies may reap benefits in response. TrendForce, however, believes that, even though Chinese foundries are able to provide the 1Xnm and more mature process nodes necessary for Elbrus chip production, the requisite redesign and verification processes will likely take at least one year. As such, Russia will have a difficult time immediately redirecting orders for Elbrus chips to Chinese foundries, and the Chinese semiconductor industry will not be able to take advantage of these orders in the short-term.

Escalating warfare places significant stress on transportation, logistics, and supply chains

In light of the ongoing conflict, various parties have been imposing diverse sanctions on Russia, and the shipping industry has, in turn, sustained both direct and indirect ramifications pertaining to their businesses’ stability and safety. Logistic disruptions and skyrocketing prices, for instance, represent some of the issues that have emerged post-conflict and placed undue stress on the global supply chains. As a hotbed of semiconductor production, then, Taiwan would naturally be assumed to have domestic semiconductor companies stockpile component inventories. However, according to TrendForce’s investigations, not only do most of these companies currently possess healthy inventory levels, but Russia and Ukraine also do not represent the sole sources of semiconductor materials for Taiwan, since Taiwanese companies have been sourcing materials from China as well. Hence, the Russian-Ukrainian war has caused neither noticeable stock-up activities nor production bottlenecks for Taiwanese semiconductor companies.

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