As infections among employees from semiconductor backend testing leader KYEC make news headlines, the company suspended operations for two days and undertook facility-wide disinfections starting on June 4, although at the moment KYEC’s facility has yet to resume operations at full capacity. In the vicinity of KYEC are packaging and testing operator Greatek and networking device manufacturer Accton, both of which have since been affected by the spread of the disease.

Not only have the confirmed cases in KYEC generated worries about possible disruptions to the semiconductor supply chain, but the semiconductor industry is also anxious about whether continued infections will spread to other semiconductor companies.

As a leading chip tester (as well as the 8^th largest IC package and testing companies globally), if KYEC were to halt its operations altogether due to the continued spread of COVID-19 infections, the semiconductor supply chain would be considerably impaired as a result. Not only would upstream clients (including fabless companies, IDMs, and foundries) have their schedules disrupted, but lead times of downstream end-products will be prolonged as well, causing far-reaching impacts throughout the entire semiconductor industry.

According to KYEC’s publicly disclosed information, the distribution of its clientele is as follows: fabless companies (76%), IDMs (22%), and foundries (2%). In particular, of the 50 largest semiconductor companies globally, more than 30 currently make use of KYEC’s testing services.

According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, the packaging and testing industry has been impacted in the short run by KYEC’s two-day suspension and low-capacity operation resumptions successively. As such, MediaTek, Novatek, and STMicroelectronics, which are major clients of KYEC, are all notably experiencing impacts from the spread of the pandemic within KYEC’s ranks.

Although the above companies have already transferred some of their orders to ASE, Sigurd, and ChipMOS to make up for disruptions in KYEC’s operations, these orders are too numerous to be fulfilled completely at the present. Therefore, the tight capacity of chip testing services is expected to intensify going forward.

（Cover image source: Pixabay）

Memory suppliers are currently carrying a relatively low level of inventory because of aggressive stock-up activities of clients across different application segments in 1H21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. More specifically, inventories of DRAM suppliers and NAND Flash suppliers are averaging 3-4 weeks and 4-5 weeks, respectively. The overall procurement of server memory products is expected to intensify in 3Q21, so memory suppliers do not see the necessity in lowering quotes to drive sales. TrendForce forecasts that DRAM prices will rise further by 3-8% QoQ for 3Q21. On the other hand, thanks to the growing demand for enterprise SSDs and NAND Flash wafers, TrendForce has also corrected up the magnitude of the QoQ increase in NAND Flash prices for 3Q21 to 5-10% (compared with the previous projection of 3-8%).

High inventory may pose potential risk for smartphone brands in 2H21 due to decreased smartphone production targets

Under the market spotlight are smartphone brands and notebook manufacturers, which drastically differ in their inventory levels. Regarding the smartphone market, TrendForce has already lowered the YoY growth rate of the global total smartphone production in 2021 to 8.5% from the previous projection of 9.4% as the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic takes place across India. Presently, smartphone brands are carrying 8-10 weeks of inventory on average for DRAM and NAND Flash. Two newly emerged factors are generating some concerns about the high level of inventory. First, Chinese brands have lowered their production targets and begun to adjust inventories in order to address the issue of component gaps. Second, Southeast Asia is bracing for a resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks that could disrupt smartphone production and weaken consumer demand.

PC OEMs are holding up to 10 weeks’ worth of DRAM inventory on average; price hike of PC DRAM in 2H21 will likely be limited as a result

Regarding the notebook market, on the other hand, PC OEMs are currently carrying about 8-10 weeks’ worth of DRAM inventory on average, with some PC OEMs having an even higher inventory level, primarily because the stay-at-home economy this year will continue to propel the demand for notebook computers, about 238 million units of which are expected to be produced this year, a 14.3% increase YoY. Furthermore, in view of the shortage of components in the upstream supply chain, including audio CODECs, analog ICs, power ICs, MCUs, and LED drivers, PC OEMs are anticipating that DRAM will be in similar shortage as well, thus potentially leading to an inability to manufacture notebooks. In response, PC OEMs are therefore prompted to expand their DRAM procurement in 1H21. On the NAND Flash front, the persistent shortage of NAND Flash controller ICs means that PC OEMs generally carry about 4-5 weeks’ worth of NAND Flash inventory on average, which is relatively lower than their DRAM inventory.

TrendForce forecasts that Chinese smartphone brands will slow down their procurement of mobile DRAM and NAND Flash solutions during 2H21. However, contract prices of memory products on the whole will unlikely experience a general decline in the second half of the year because demand remains fairly robust in other application segments. On the PC and NB front, changes in the fulfillment rates of components that are in shortage will become the key determinant of how PC OEMs evaluate their inventory of well-stocked components. It should be pointed out that, as PC OEMs have been maintaining a relatively high inventory of DRAM, the increase in PC DRAM prices in 2H21 will be markedly muted as a result.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

Enterprise SSD procurement has been rising on the back of growing server shipments since 2Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In particular, the share of 8TB products in shipments of SSDs to data centers has shown the most noticeable growth, which is expected to persist through 3Q21. However, certain SSD components and parts may be in shortage due to insufficient foundry capacity. TrendForce is therefore revising the QoQ hikes in contract prices of enterprise SSDs for 3Q21 to 10-15% from the previous projection of 5-10%.

TrendForce further indicates that the high demand for enterprise SSDs in 3Q21 is attributed to several factors. First, North American cloud service providers (hyperscalers) have pretty much completed their inventory adjustments and now continue to expand their storage capacity. Second, the flow of incoming orders to traditional server brands is getting stronger over the quarters as government agencies and SMBs increase their budgets for IT infrastructure. Third, Intel and AMD are ramping up production for server CPUs based on their respective new processor platforms. Following the adoption of new CPUs, the overall demand for enterprise SSDs has also shifted to higher-density products because clients want to upgrade their computing power and storage capacity. Specifically, demand is mainly trending toward 4/8TB SSDs since raising NAND Flash density can lower the cost of SSD deployment.

Supply leader Samsung will likely gain control over enterprise SSD pricing in the market

Regarding the supply end, Samsung has a higher flexibility in supplying SSDs compared to the other suppliers because it has a higher share of in-house components for its storage products. Therefore, in view of the possible shortage in certain SSD components, Samsung will likely be able to further expand its market share for enterprise SSDs. Furthermore, Samsung’s products are expected to account for more than 50% of enterprise SSDs (in terms of bits) shipped to data centers in North America in 3Q21. This dominance will likely further Samsung’s ability to dictate market prices going forward.

Intel, on the other hand, has been constrained in its ability to manufacture enterprise SSDs due to a shortage of PMICs. In addition, Intel has mostly been fulfilling orders for QLC products. As a result, Intel’s market share may potentially decrease in the TLC-dominant enterprise SSD sector. Regarding other suppliers including Kioxia and SK Hynix, although they have been able to raise their market shares due to gradual adoption of their products by clients, they are unlikely to catch up to Samsung for the time being.

On the PC client SSD front, at the moment, demand for notebook computers has remained strong, while the supply of SSD controller IC is still relatively tight. TrendForce therefore forecasts a slight 3-8% QoQ increase in client SSD contract prices for 3Q21. Regardless, suppliers will not slow down their process migrations. Starting from 3Q21, 176L PC client SSDs will be available on the market, with a corresponding increase in supply bits in the upstream SSD supply chain.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

National governments in Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, have been instituting increasingly stringent pandemic control measures in response to the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic in these countries. Remarkably, these countries are all hotspots in the electronic component supply chain, and Malaysia, home to many semiconductor packaging and testing facilities as well as passive component fabs, has now come under the international spotlight as a result. In particular, Malaysia’s MCO 3.0 (Movement Control Order 3.0) lockdown, which was extended on June 1, specifically excludes the semiconductor industry, as this industry boasts relatively high market revenue. As such, packaging and testing facilities are currently operating normally in Malaysia, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.

On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government first implemented similar pandemic control measures, under which only about 50% of private businesses were allowed to operate. The semiconductor industry and medical services were notably excluded from the restrictions at the time, given the former’s high revenue and the latter’s critical importance during emergencies. Despite the heightened lockdown of the MCO 3.0, under which only certain essential economic activities are allowed to function, some aspects of the MCO 3.0’s restrictions are relatively more lenient, as this policy specifies only 40% of private business employees must adopt WFH. Incidentally, as previously mentioned, the MCO 3.0 does not apply to the semiconductor industry.

As manufacturing operations and lead times of passive components become constrained, end clients’ procurement activities remain uncertain in 2H21

On the other hand, TrendForce indicates that the passive component market, which is also a key industry in Malaysia, will likely face supply-side bottlenecks as a result of the MCO 3.0, affecting such suppliers as Taiyo Yuden, Walsin Technology, NDK, and Epson. Under the latest restrictions, product lead times in the passive component supply chain, along with the state of the transportation industry (which determines shipping and delivery schedules of passive components), will become key determinants of whether client orders can be fulfilled on time.

In addition, brands in Europe and North America will begin adjust their orders for late-3Q21 in June and July. Notebook brands including Dell and HP are not only expected to maintain their orders for 2H21, but also taking measures to ensure a steady supply of IC components, while Apple will begin procuring components for its upcoming iPhone 13 from the passive component supply chain in July. Although these orders are expected to provide upward momentum for the passive component market in 2H21, the resurgence of the pandemic in Southeast Asia, as well as whether the shortage of semiconductor components will be alleviated going forward, will affect clients’ procurement activities for MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitors) in 2H21.

On the whole, although the packaging and testing operations of major IDMs (Intel, Infineon, and Texas Instruments) and OSAT operators (ASE, Amkor, TFME, and Hua Tian) in Malaysia remain unaffected for the time being, TrendForce believes that the MCO 3.0 will likely have an impact on the supply and demand of the global passive component market in 2H21.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

Owing to an uncontrolled spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has instituted Level 3 restrictions throughout the island. With employees from several tech companies testing positive for the virus, major foundries, including TSMC and VIS, are successively finding positive cases among their midst as well. Worries have therefore cropped up in the global semiconductor supply chain over whether the supply of chip can remain unaffected despite the infections in Taiwan.

Taking into account Taiwan’s share of foundry capacity within the global total, the aforementioned supply chain’s worries are not without merit. According to TrendForce’s investigations, Taiwanese foundries, including TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC, collectively account for about 50% of the global foundry capacity, meaning about 50% of the global supply of chips is contingent on Taiwan.

However, TrendForce also finds that, despite the domestic spread of the pandemic, which forced various companies to institute WFH policies for their employees, most semiconductor fabs are operating without interruptions at the moment, indicating that the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to impact the production and supply of chips.

As well, both TSMC and VIS have immediately made public announcements stating that their operations remain unaffected by the positive cases. However, whether the pandemic can be sufficiently managed and whether it will hinder the supply of semiconductors going forward remains to be seen.

（Cover image source: Pixabay）