Amid concerns on the impact of the U.S. presidential election as well as the ongoing chip war between the world’s two superpowers, China’s chipmaking equipment market is expected to contract next year, according to a report by Nikkei. Citing remarks from SEMI, in 2025, the semiconductor equipment market in China is anticipated to drop below USD 40 billion and back to the level of 2023, after peaking in 2024.

According to SEMI, the decline can be attributed to the cooling demand after a period of accelerated purchasing spurred by U.S.-China tensions, the Nikkei report mentions. Spending on semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is projected to exceed USD 40 billion this year for the first time, according to SEMI.

On the other hand, according to an executive of the Chinese branch of a global chip equipment supplier cited by the report, in 2025, the semiconductor equipment market in China is anticipated to decrease by 5-10% from the previous year, which is resulted from the decline of utilization rates for equipment at China’s semiconductor factories as well as the previous rush in purchases.

The projection aligns with Dutch chip equipment giant ASML’s financial forecast released earlier in October. It now forecasts 2025 net sales between 30 billion and 35 billion euros (USD 32.7 billion to USD 38.1 billion), in the lower end of its previous guidance range, according to a report by CNBC.

Though during the July-September quarter, China contribute to around 50% of ASML’s sales, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen noted that the company expects its China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business,” indicating that China would come in at around 20% of its total revenue for next year, according to the CNBC report.

It is also worth noting that according to SEMI, the market contraction in China extends beyond next year. According to the Nikkei report, SEMI projects that China’s spending on chipmaking equipment will experience an average annual decline of 4% in compound growth from 2023 to 2027.

On the other hand, chipmaking equipment spending remains robust in regions other in China. Citing SEMI’s projection, Nikkei notes that spending in the Americas is projected to grow 22% annually between 2023 and 2027, with Europe and the Middle East increasing by 19%, and Japan by 18%.

Despite declining growth, China will remain the largest market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with estimated spending of USD 144.4 billion from 2024 to 2027, according to SEMI. This exceeds investments in South Korea (USD 108 billion), Taiwan (USD 103.2 billion), the Americas (USD 77.5 billion), and Japan (USD 45.1 billion).

To elaborate a bit, Nikkei suggests that China’s heightened outlay aligns with its goal of achieving greater self-sufficiency in chip production, as its self-sufficiency rate was only 23% in 2023.

Naura Technology Group, a state-owned company, is China’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, followed by Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC), according to Nikkei.

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(Photo credit: Naura Technology)

As Samsung is reportedly scaling down its foundry and legacy DRAM production, the South Korean semiconductor giant is now said to be planning the sale for its outdated equipment in China, including the NAND Flash facilities in Xi’an, according to a report by the Chosun Daily.

The report notes that the struggling semiconductor giant is gearing up to sell old equipment from multiple front-end and back-end production lines, which could not be sold in a timely manner and have been accumulating due to pressure from Washington.

The equipment set for sale primarily consists of 100-layer 3D NAND machinery, according to the Chosun Daily. Since last year, Samsung has been transitioning its Xi’an plant to 200-layer production processes, the report notes.

According to another report by the Korea Economic Daily, following Samsung’s current mass production of its 286-layer V9 NAND flash chips, the company’s Device Solutions division is targeting the production of vertical NAND with a minimum of 400 stacked layers as early as 2026, which makes the 100-layer 3D NAND machinery outdated.

The Chosun Daily report indicates that the old machines are expected to be sold through local Chinese companies or third parties. Memory giants such as Samsung and SK hynix have traditionally sold their used equipment to external companies through brokers after replacing it with advanced machinery, with China rumored as a major buyer.

It is worth noting that following the U.S. Commerce Department’s ban in October 2022 on exporting advanced semiconductor equipment to Chinese companies, these sales have reportedly ceased. According to the report, under U.S. regulations, equipment used in DRAM production processes of 18nm or below, system semiconductors of 14nm or below, and NAND flash memory of 128 layers or above cannot be exported to China.

However, in order to secure Validated End User (VEU) status from the U.S. government, Samsung and SK hynix have rumored to refrain from selling old equipment, even those not restricted by these sanctions, the report suggests.

Once a company is included in the VEU program, it can export items specified in collaboration with the U.S. Commerce Department without a separate permit process or expiration, resulting in an indefinite waiver of U.S. export control regulations, the report explains.

Despite these concerns, following weaker third-quarter results, Samsung is set to begin extensive organizational restructuring and cost-saving measures by the end of the year. As Samsung is expected to adjust utilization rates and staffing levels on its domestic legacy lines, similar changes are anticipated for its Chinese facilities, according to senior management cited by the report.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

Supermicro, a major beneficiary of the AI boom, saw its stock plunge after Ernst & Young resigned as its auditor, raising market concerns. According to a report from Liberty Times, citing Chinese media outlet Cailian Press, NVIDIA, which has close ties to Supermicro, is shifting orders that were previously directed to Supermicro to other suppliers in order to avoid market disruptions.

According to the report, Supermicro’s competitors, GIGABYTE and ASRock, have benefited from the order transfer, seeing an increase in new orders and customer inquiries.

On October 30th, Supermicro announced that Ernst & Young, one of the Big Four accounting firms, had severed ties with the company. In its resignation letter, Ernst & Young stated that it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management” and could “no longer rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations” regarding their relationship with Supermicro.

The report noted that this statement caused Supermicro’s share price to drop sharply, plunging 32% that day. The company is now facing the risk of delisting.

Previously, on August 27, Supermicro was accused of accounting violations, inadequate disclosure of related party transactions, and evading sanctions by selling products to Russia by Hindenburg Research. The following day, Supermicro also announced a delay in submitting its 2024 fiscal year 10-K annual report.

According to a report from Wall Street Journal in late September, Supermicro was under the investigation of the U.S. Department of Justice.

The report from Liberty Times citing Cailian Press indicated that if the rumors about NVIDIA’s order transfer turn out to be true, it would undoubtedly be a further blow to the troubled firm.

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(Photo credit: Supermicro)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, the decline in DDR5’s spot prices has been relatively modest, while DDR4 and DDR3 products experience more significant pressure. As for NAND flash, spot prices could continue to fall also due to the possible expansions of wafer provision from suppliers at the end of the year. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Regarding DDR5 products, the decline in their spot prices has been relatively modest, but the trading momentum remains sluggish. As for DDR4 and DDR3 products, their spot prices continue to drop due to experiencing more significant pressure. Looking at DDR4’s future spot price trend, demand has been rapidly shifting towards platforms that primarily adopt DDR5. Consequently, clearing existing DDR4 inventories in the spot market is challenging, and the downward price trend is expected to persist for a considerable period. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 2.33% from US$1.887 last week to US$1.843 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Transactions have been sluggish after the conclusion to the peak period of purchase momentum, and market rumors of production cuts among suppliers have proven to be ineffective towards halting the deterioration of spot prices that could continue to fall also due to the possible expansions of wafer provision from suppliers at the end of the year. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 2.66% this week, arriving at US$2.380.

According to a report from Commercial Times, citing industry sources, TSMC has become the focus of active collaboration efforts from various parties. The governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, plans to visit TSMC after the U.S. elections to persuade the company to transfer its Arizona plant investment plan to Texas, offering discounts on water and electricity, along with subsidy incentives.

Texas is actively courting TSMC, offering more favorable policies in hopes of persuading the company to shift its original Arizona investment to the state. Furthermore, the report indicated that, citing industry sources, Texas offers a well-established supply chain cluster of Taiwanese factories, along with its proximity to Mexico.

The report also noted that Samsung Display has sought TSMC’s production support to meet Apple’s growing demand. According to the report, institutional investors highlighted that as the LCD market shifts to AMOLED, UMC’s display driver capacity is facing supply shortages, and TSMC is the only company capable of meeting Apple’s production capacity requirements. Additionally, next year’s capacity for mature process production is expected to be loose, and TSMC is anticipated to offer discounts to boost utilization rates.

Regarding the technological development from TSMC, the report also indicated that TSMC is advancing its 16nm FinFET process to produce driver ICs, enhancing their high performance and low power consumption, which is expected to appeal to Apple.

According to the report, industry sources indicate that FOPLP packaging technology is a key area of development for both Apple and TSMC, suggesting that FOPLP will be a major focus of advanced packaging innovation in the next phase. The report also speculates that the Texas governor’s visit to TSMC may have been arranged by Apple, a major client of TSMC.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)