Cars are becoming smarter, introducing a new dimension to the world of “mobility.” However, amidst a plethora of fancy terms, what exactly is the future mode of mobility? What problems does it aim to solve? It is something worth delving into further.

When we discuss “future mobility,” do images of KITT, the AI sidekick from the TV show Knight Rider, or the autonomous vehicles from the movie Minority Report come to mind? While humanity is slowly turning science fiction scenarios into reality, the challenges in the real world are far from simple. First and foremost, we must understand why there is a need for new modes of mobility.

Human Driving Is Risky: Navigating the Path Forward for Autonomous Driving

The continuous evolution of automotive technology is primarily driven by the fact that human driving is too dangerous. According to the World Health Organization, approximately 1.19 million lives are lost to car accidents globally each year. Moreover, in most countries, the economic loss caused by traffic accidents amounts to about 3% of the national GDP. To reduce fatal accidents, automotive technologies keep advancing. The ultimate goal is to achieve fully autonomous driving so as to eliminate deadly traffic incidents caused by drunk driving, fatigue, distraction, or unfamiliarity with road conditions.

The discussion about the future of mobility inevitably begins with autonomous driving. As of 2024, global research and development in autonomous driving can be broadly divided into two camps: the “LiDAR and HD maps” faction, led by technology giants and established automakers, and the “vision-based” faction, represented by Tesla and an increasing number of Chinese automakers.

“Chinese automakers and automotive technology developers have recently shown a trend of moving away from the dependence on HD maps,” said TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen. “These companies include Huawei, XPeng, Li Auto, and Pony.ai, all of which have launched urban driving assistance systems that do not require HD maps.”

Chen pointed out that the high cost of HD maps, which have an error margin of less than one centimeter and a production cost of more than TWD 1,000 per kilometer, is the main reason automakers are gradually leaving this technology and searching for better alternatives.

The vision-based faction, led by Tesla, believes that increasing computing power and advances in software can synergize with sensors that are equal to or better than human vision. When this is achieved, computers can have the same driving ability as humans without being affected by physiological factors, thereby significantly reducing the risk of accidents.

Looking at the HD maps faction, Waymo, which is supported by Google, is its leader as it has made impressive achievements with this technology. Waymo’s autonomous taxi fleets are already operational in several US cities, including Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. They have performed well with an extremely low number of accidents. However, this success story has been overshadowed by the issues that GM is facing in the development of its Cruise series of autonomous vehicles. Cruise, which also uses HD maps, has been suspended from road testing due to the frequent accidents it caused in San Francisco.

Key Components for Mobility of the Future

Although Taiwan does not have any major automakers leading the development of autonomous driving technologies, there are opportunities for local companies in the related supply chain. Autonomous driving essentially comprises the following three things: software, sensors, and electronic control components. Numerous Taiwan-based companies specialize in the development and provision of the latter two.

“Within a few years, autonomous driving software will grow rapidly, and the number of vehicles capable of reaching Level 3 to 4 autonomy will significantly increase,” Chen said. Although automakers have yet to achieve the higher levels of autonomous driving, they are quietly engaging in a competition to secure greater computing power. This strategy aims to prevent a potential scenario where hardware capabilities cannot keep up with the pace of software development. In fact, automakers are equipping their new vehicles with as much computing power as possible, even if it is not required at the moment. By doing so, they can later enhance the functions and features of their vehicles through over-the-air (OTA) software updates, thereby ensuring the market competitiveness of their products.

Despite the recent surge in demand for automotive components, analysts have pointed out that in the evolving industry ecosystem, which is leaning towards software-driven vehicle development, the demand for standardized components is gradually shrinking. Conversely, there has been significant growth in demand for customized components and parts. If Taiwan-based suppliers can leverage their flexibility and speed, they will be able to enter the supply chains of major automotive companies during this latest transition.

It is also worth noting that while the ultimate goal of fully autonomous driving has yet to be achieved, automakers have already recognized changes in the industry ecosystem. The traditional product development cycle of “minor modifications every three years and a major overhaul every eight years” is no longer suitable as vehicles need to be upgraded at a much faster pace to keep up with the latest technology trends. Moreover, as the computing power of onboard processors increases, the functionality of vehicles also expands. This has prompted automakers to shift their focus towards software as a source of profit.

Many automakers are now planning to offer subscription-based services, encouraging vehicle owners or operators to pay to unlock a variety of functions and features. For example, Kia’s EV9 comes with the option to purchase special patterns/animations for the headlights and displays. Mercedes-Benz and Porsche are working to develop a market for third-party automotive apps, thus replicating the existing ecosystem for mobile/smartphone apps. BMW came under the spotlight recently for locking certain features behind a paywall, such as heated seats and steering wheels. However, the company has since reverted the decision to make certain features a paid subscription service due to market feedback.

As established automakers explore ways to monetize automotive software, Tesla, which is leading the trend of software-based cars, offers “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) software for a price in excess of TWD 220,000. Tesla also provides a “Premium Connectivity Service” that enables its vehicles to access 4G networks, although the company has yet to start charging for this service.

Technologies and Business Models Fuel New Imaginations about Mobility

Aside from automakers exploring new avenues for revenue and profit, car owners also have opportunities to benefit economically from the latest technological advancements. Even though Uber’s business model for car sharing has been constrained by regulations and is gradually transforming into a ride-hailing service, these mobile service platforms have introduced a new strategy known as “shared car rentals.” Under this model, car owners can rent out their vehicles to others when they are not using them. After all, when car owners are working in office buildings or sleeping in their homes, their vehicles are idle assets that depreciate over time. By leveraging software, the internet, and smart vehicle unlocking technology, they can turn their vehicles into a source of passive income.

This idea can be taken further, leading to the creation of an “autonomous taxi fleet” that individual vehicles can join when their owners are not driving them. Computers will drive the vehicles to pick up passengers for a period, and then return to the owners’ homes or workplaces to pick them up when needed. Car owners will not only save on parking fees but also receive a portion of the taxi fare earned by their vehicles. At the same time, fleet operators save on the cost of purchasing vehicles, thereby creating a win-win situation.

Forty years ago, humanity envisioned future cars as companions that could pick up their owners on their own. Today, autonomous vehicle fleets are capable of doing just that. However, vehicles of the future are expected to do much more than simply transport people from one place to another. They are evolving into hubs for entertainment, work, and personal assistance. But before we reach that stage, is there a possibility that we could first eliminate the nightmare of highway congestion? Perhaps that day is closer than we think.

(Photo credit: Tesla)

With the emergence of net-zero carbon emissions and generative AI, the rising electricity demand will also become a major, long-term global trend accompanying these two hotly debated issues.

For many governments and corporations, satisfying their electricity demand while meeting policy mandates related to low carbon emissions or net-zero carbon emissions is now a huge challenge.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total electricity consumption of data centers worldwide is forecasted to surpass 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026. This amount is equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Japan. Additionally, with the electrification of vehicles and decarbonization of industries being irreversible long-term trends, electric vehicle sales are forecasted to account for 67% of total car sales by 2030. Hence, these projections indicate that global electricity consumption will continue to increase in the future.

TrendForce analyst Danis He stated that in the future, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation will continue to expand. However, no single generation technology can meet much of the electricity demand. Therefore, the ultimate goal of green energy transition is to establish a “stable, low-carbon power infrastructure” that requires multiple sources of energy technologies working in sync.

So, in terms of power infrastructure planning, how can governments and businesses simultaneously meet the rising electricity demand while also meeting requirements related to low carbon emissions and non-carbon energy?

He pointed out that currently, the costs of solar photovoltaics and wind power have significantly dropped, making them even more competitive against traditional coal-fired power stations. Consequently, many countries have been able to scale up their deployment of renewable generation systems and advance numerous clean energy projects.

Even though solar photovoltaics and wind power are intermittent energy sources, they can play a vital role in stabilizing the operation of a power grid by coupling with lithium-ion battery energy storage systems, the costs of which have also fallen considerably in recent years. Additionally, redox flow batteries are also an option, especially for applications that require long-term energy storage.

Global Top 10 Photovoltaics Companies Are Based either in China or the United States as They Control Key Technologies and Huge Market Shares

Photovoltaic systems generally have relatively low installation requirements and will produce electricity as long as they are exposed to sunlight. Hence, they are widely deployed for various applications such as rooftop solar, ground-mounted photovoltaic installations, and floating photovoltaic installations. He stated that some manufacturers of photovoltaic products have already established carbon-neutral manufacturing processes. Under this premise, solar photovoltaics can be regarded as being far less polluting compared with other energy sources.

Presently, there are two types of silicon wafers used in the manufacturing of photovoltaic cells: N-type and P-type. N-type tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells have emerged as the market mainstream, and their demand is expected to soar in 2024. Approximately 57% of the total worldwide production capacity for photovoltaic cells is allocated to N-type TOPCon cells. P-type passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) cells have secured second place with around 32% of the total production capacity.

He asserted that in terms of rankings of cell manufacturers based on production capacity and shipment volume, the trend of the strong getting stronger is increasingly evident. The market shares of the leading manufacturers have remained roughly the same compared to 2023. While the rankings of the top 10 have seen some minor changes, the order has generally been constant. This group includes companies such as Canadian Solar, LONGi, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar, all based in China, as well as US companies such as First Solar.

In recent years, the government of Taiwan has been actively promoting initiatives related to green energy transition. Major photovoltaic companies in Taiwan include TSEC, URE, Motech, and Anji Technology. Currently, they are expanding their presence from the upstream sections of the supply chain, such as photovoltaic cells and modules, to the downstream sections, such as investments in photovoltaic power stations.

Synergy of Various Low-carbon Energy Sources Has Revealed a Promising Future for Hydrogen and CCUS

There are countless types of renewable energy available today, including many that are specific to different environments and geographical conditions, such as tidal power and geothermal energy. These energy sources primarily target niche markets, and widespread commercialization is still far off for them. However, for countries that possess abundant geothermal resources or other geographical advantages, such as being surrounded by the ocean, they ultimately have ample natural resources that can be utilized for renewable generation.

Since geographical environments differ from region to region, the deployment of electricity generation systems must consider various factors in order to realize the full-scale adoption of low-carbon energy. Nevertheless, several newly emerged energy sources have generation costs that are still significantly higher compared to traditional fossil fuels.

Among these emerging energy sources, green hydrogen is highly anticipated to play a critical role in achieving net-zero carbon emissions. He said that while green hydrogen is very costly at this moment, it will undoubtedly become mainstream in the next decade or two, serving as a promising low-carbon energy source and an option for energy storage beyond 2030.

According to the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2023, global hydrogen demand is forecasted to reach 150 million tons by 2030, and the total installed capacity of generation systems that consume either hydrogen or ammonia will exceed 5.8 gigawatts. Furthermore, this report states that in order to meet the 2050 net-zero target, hydrogen energy needs to account for at least 13% of the overall energy consumption.

The use of hydrogen fuel for transportation has been advocated by companies such as Air Liquide from France. Apart from collaborating with Toyota from Japan and Hyundai from South Korea, Air Liquide is also promoting the adoption of green hydrogen in Taiwan. Another example is the US-based GE partnering with TWAIDC to develop a generation unit that runs on both natural gas and hydrogen.

As for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), cost is also a challenge at the current stage. In order to ensure a stable energy supply, the presence of thermal power stations that burn fossil fuels remains necessary, though these facilities need to undergo further transformation. He pointed out that against the backdrop of surging electricity demand, countries around the world are vigorously advancing towards renewable energy as they plan and develop power infrastructure. However, at the same time, new thermal generation units featuring some type of CCUS technology are also being developed.

CCUS has undergone several decades of development and is expected to become an indispensable part of our future energy system. In 2021, a Swiss startup named Climeworks activated the world’s first facility for carbon capture and conversion. Capable of capturing 4,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually, this facility represents a milestone in the development of an industry for direct carbon capture.

Also, in 2023, Microsoft signed a contract to buy “carbon removal credits” from another US company aptly named CarbonCapture. Having developed a process that removes carbon dioxide from ambient air and stores it underground, CarbonCapture assists Microsoft in eliminating its historical carbon emissions and achieving its carbon-negative goals.

Looking at Taiwan, major local producers of carbon emissions such as Formosa Plastics, Taipower, and CSC are now actively investing in the development of technologies related to CCUS. However, He said that at the current stage, implementing CCUS to reduce carbon footprints can incur a substantial cost and affect the efficiency of power generation. Studies have shown that coal-fired power stations that have adopted CCUS have seen a 60% increase in generation cost as well as a 20-30% reduction in generation efficiency. Moreover, Taiwan cannot replicate the arbitrary carbon storage methods used in the US and Europe due to its limited landmass. Without sufficient subsidies, CCUS cannot be applied on a large scale.

Integration of AI into Smart Grids Will Massively Boost Efficiency in Electricity Usage

As countries gradually proceed with the green energy transition, the market penetration rate of intermittent renewable energy sources climbs, while traditional thermal baseload power stations shut down. This trend has the effect of heightening uncertainty in the operation of power grids. Therefore, many new kinds of methods and energy sources have been developed to regulate the grid. Furthermore, the entire electric power system is inevitably advancing into the era of smart grids.

The purpose of the smart grid is to reduce electricity loss and effectively integrate renewable energy. To this end, it is anticipated that technologies related to artificial intelligence (AI) will have an increasing presence in the field of grid operation. Presently, several Taiwan-based companies are involved in the downstream of the industry chain for smart grid, providing services for various applications. Among these players, Delta Electronics, Chung-Hsin Electric & Machinery, HDRE, Advantech, and Tatung System Technologies all provide system integration services.

Furthermore, their solutions can leverage big data to improve generation efficiency and perform predictive analysis. For instance, by collecting and processing data related to weather forecasts and performances of individual generation units, an AI-enabled solution can predict the amount of electricity produced by a solar or wind project. Furthermore, these companies also provide hardware and software that enable real-time monitoring of the grid, providing indicators such as the quality of electricity supply, load, etc. Overall, their services and products can facilitate real-time power dispatching and optimization of the whole grid system.

Currently, AI cannot be extensively applied for grid scheduling. As He pointed out, in terms of legal responsibilities and obligations, if errors occur in power dispatching, it will be difficult to determine accountability. No sector within the entire electric power system are able to provide sufficient safety assurances or guarantees when it comes to adopting AI for certain applications. All in all, this is one of the major challenges in the future development of the smart grid.

Join the AI grand event at Computex 2024, alongside CEOs from AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, and ARM. Discover more about this expo! https://bit.ly/44Gm0pK

(Photo credit: Delta)

In 2023, startups globally experienced a depressing restructuring period, marked by the downfall of numerous unicorns. Now, as we move into 2024, investors and entrepreneurs within the startup community are shifting their focus to artificial intelligence (AI), recognizing it as the most exciting and promising technology.

The startup landscape last year could be likened to a “pandemic” of sorts, devastating numerous unicorns. According to the available data, the total funding of startups that ceased operations in 2023 surpassed USD 41 billion, a sum equivalent to the combined total of startup funding from 2019 to 2022. Noteworthy and high-valued startups that closed down in 2023 include Olive, a medical insurance startup valued at USD 4 billion; Convoy, a smart truck fleet developer valued at USD 3.8 billion; and Zume, a textile company focused on reducing plastic waste, valued at USD 2.3 billion.

Additionally, over 20 unicorns, including Notion, AirTable, and Grammarly that are well-known in Taiwan, have not launched a new fundraising round for two consecutive years. Amid this downturn, AI, particularly generative AI technologies and enterprises, has emerged as the brightest beacon in the gloomy global startup environment.

According to CB Insights, since the second quarter of 2023, startups incorporating AI-related technologies have seen at least a 20% increase in funding. For more advanced startups that have progressed to Series B funding and beyond, those focusing on AI have received a remarkable 59% increase in investment. A report from Startup Genome highlights that AI and big data were the most sought-after sectors by investors in 2023, comprising 28% of the total global startup investment for that year. Interestingly, at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show in the United States, the largest share of participants from Taiwan (28%) was involved in AI and robotics. Furthermore, digital healthcare and smart cities/environmental sustainability, fields closely intertwined with AI, accounted for 20% and 18%, respectively, of the Taiwan-based participants.

The recent developments underscore a clear trend: AI has become a core technology across industries. Microsoft has not just invested a substantial USD 10 billion in OpenAI but is also comprehensively integrating AI into its products, workforce, and data management strategies to establish an early lead in this domain. Amazon and Google are closely following suit, each launching a series of AI application services. What has particularly stunned the industry is Apple’s recent decision to discontinue its electric vehicle project, which was a decade in the making. Instead, Apple is shifting its strategic focus, reallocating resources to accelerate the development of generative AI projects.

In summary, AI is undeniably the most significant trend within the startup ecosystem in 2024. While tech giants utilize their extensive resources to advance AI technologies, startups are concentrating on practical applications of AI in various fields. According to TrendForce analysts, three areas particularly warrant attention in 2024: cybersecurity, smart healthcare, and retail services.

Rapid Advances in AI Represent a Double-Edged Sword for Cybersecurity

On the frontline of cybersecurity, AI has emerged as a formidable tool for both attack and defense. Hackers use AI to simplify their attacks, whereas cybersecurity professionals use AI to identify vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, the reality of the cybersecurity sector is complex. The unpredictability of attacks, combined with the often passive approach of many companies towards data protection, means that the primary advantage of AI lies in its ability to mitigate rather than prevent incidents. TrendForce analyst P. K. Tseng notes that IT staff can employ AI tools to swiftly analyze attack vectors following a cybersecurity incident, thereby enabling them to promptly patch vulnerabilities and lower the risk of subsequent attacks.

Furthermore, owing to the shortage of cybersecurity talent, many IT personnel are also tasked with cybersecurity responsibilities. With the advent of generative AI, leading tech firms like Cisco and Palo Alto Network have started leveraging these technologies to streamline operations. As a result, IT staff in these companies can now execute previously complex and unfamiliar cybersecurity tasks through conversations in natural language.

Despite these advancements, deploying comprehensive and effective cybersecurity measures remains a costly endeavor for many small and medium-sized enterprises and end-users, often with benefits that are not immediately apparent.

To bolster data protection efforts, numerous manufacturers are now focusing on enhancing security measures at the upstream of their supply chains. For instance, Taiwan’s crucial semiconductor industry has seen the emergence of innovative startups like Jmem Tek. This company has revolutionized chip programming by incorporating fuse and anti-fuse technologies to transition from traditional single-bit to multi-bit methods. The innovative approach scrambles bit arrangements, thwarting hackers’ attempts at reverse engineering. Solutions like ones offered by Jmem Tek find applications in various fields, including IoT, automotive electronics, and electronic hardware protection.

Leading chip manufacturers such as Infineon, ARM, and NXP are increasingly adopting hardware protection strategies at the upstream, significantly contributing to the rapid growth of the cybersecurity market.

As cyber-attacks and data breaches become increasingly common, cybersecurity startups are facing significant growth opportunities.

Global Information estimates that the IoT security market alone will reach USD 6.6 billion by 2024, with projections suggesting it could grow to USD 28.01 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 33.53% between the two years.

IDC predicts that by 2026, 30% of large enterprises worldwide will improve the efficiency their cybersecurity incident remediation, management, and response by investing in autonomous security solutions. Analysts, however, warn that cybersecurity is a highly sensitive area. Typically, businesses prefer to work with established cybersecurity firms rather than startups, and this poses a considerable entry barrier for new players. Hence, this scenario represents both a potential risk and an opportunity in the market.

As Foreign Healthcare Giants Pioneers the Use of AI in Precision Medicine, Taiwan-based Startups Follow Closely

Healthcare and pharmaceuticals rank among the industries with the highest investment in smart technology, particularly in drug research and development. Over the last decade, two-thirds of the drugs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration have been small-molecule drugs. The development of these drugs has increasingly relied on AI technologies. Leading companies in this space include Recursion, Benevolent, and notably, Insilico Medicine.

In 2023, ISM5411, the world’s first cancer drug developed entirely through AI, advanced to Phase II clinical trials. This breakthrough serves as a remarkable milestone, showcasing the remarkable speed at which AI can innovate and produce new, lifesaving medications.

While the aforementioned drug startups may not be widely recognized, their influence within the pharmaceutical industry is profound. Insilico Medicine’s principal investor is Janssen Pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. Recursion’s principal investor is Leaps by Bayer, a subsidiary of Bayer.

Moreover, Roche Pharmaceuticals has partnered with several AI drug startups to accurately identify potential participants for drug trials, thus speeding up the development process.

“Smart healthcare,” seemingly lifted from a sci-fi movie, is gradually becoming a reality, thanks in part to AI. This is particularly evident with the development of the brain-computer interface technology, which involves implanting minuscule processors in the brains of patients with limb paralysis. This enables them to control digital devices, such as smartphones and computer mice, using their thoughts. Currently, two startups have initiated human trials for this technology: Neuralink led by Elon Musk and Synchron, the latter of which has received investments from Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates.

TrendForce forecasts that the global smart healthcare market is expected to surpass USD 360 billion by 2025. In Taiwan, the revenue from digital healthcare products and services reached TWD 50 billion in 2022. With advancements in AI, Taiwan-based startups related to smart healthcare have come under the spotlight, with 14% of local entrepreneurs venturing into this field.

Tailored for Individual Consumers: Smart Retail Unleashes Huge Business Opportunities

AI has long been anticipated to revolutionize the retail industry, yet its adoption has encountered setbacks, particularly with growing concerns over privacy. Furthermore, the once highly popular unmanned stores have seen their growth stall due to a range of factors. However, the emergence of generative AI holds the potential to usher in significant new changes.

“Retail technology is advancing towards greater customization, akin to a personal shopping consultant for each consumer,” stated TrendForce analyst Tseng. For example, the latest shopping service introduced by global retail giant Walmart leverages generative AI. Customers only need to make a general request, and Walmart’s AI system generates a comprehensive shopping list, giving them the freedom to choose which items to buy.

Today, when people shop online, they are accustomed to searching for the desired products, but this process still takes a lot of time, and it is easy to get distracted and browse for other items. However, with an AI-powered virtual shopping assistant, if someone wants to organize a barbecue for his family, the assistant will compile all the necessary items automatically.

Walmart’s AI shopping service is provided by Microsoft, with the underlying technology coming from OpenAI. Meanwhile, Google is set to integrate generative AI into its business-to-business (B2B) services. The e-commerce behemoth Amazon has also started testing a shopping assistant named Rufus AI, positioning itself to once again transform the retail landscape.

Beyond major corporations, Taiwan is fostering startups that use AI to expand smart retail across diverse markets. Carmi Technology, a local startup, targets health supplements, which are in high demand in the domestic market. The company introduced a one-stop customization service, enabling customers to tailor health supplements to their specific needs and avoid the clutter of numerous bottles and jars. This innovative approach positions Carmi Technology to capture more opportunities in this niche market.

AI Is Everywhere

Besides the rapid progress of startups in integrating AI in the aforementioned sectors, the presence of AI is ubiquitous in the startup scene of Taiwan and worldwide.

While this trend is very apparent this year, AI should not be regarded as the ultimate solution for everything. Taking the highly popular ChatGPT as an example, many users have started to notice a decline in the quality of responses. This issue could be due partly to users’ increased expectations, but it could also have to do with limited computational resources. In order to shorten response time and save on computing power, chatbot platforms might reduce the number of parameters in their machine learning systems.

The final and most important point is that regardless of the application markets where AI is adopted, the possibility of errors must be taken into consideration. Therefore, core decision-making ultimately needs to be handled by humans in order to prevent irreversible harm.

Join the AI grand event at Computex 2024, alongside CEOs from AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, and ARM. Discover more about this expo! https://bit.ly/44Gm0pK

(Photo credit: Micron)

Looking at next-generation networks, a range of emerging technologies are playing pivotal roles. From ground-based B5G (Beyond 5G)/6G, Wi-Fi 7, and fixed wireless access (FWA), to non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) like low-orbit satellites, Taiwan-based companies are actively involved in shaping these developments. Going forward, the telecom sector is poised to see the integration of a new generation of terrestrial networks and satellite communication systems. This will ensure seamless wireless coverage across land, sea, and air. With Taiwan’s robust ICT industry playing a vital role, the forthcoming era of AI-enabled smart network promises boundless possibilities.

Involved in Establishing Industry Standards from the Beginning, Taiwan-Based Companies Have a Head Start in the Race for the 6G Technology

As new equipment for next-generation networks is being introduced to the market, the telecom sector widely anticipates that 2023 will herald the arrival of the 6G era. Many companies involved in this sector have also initiated their own 6G deployment strategies ahead of time. The scale of the 6G market is forecasted to exceed USD 40 billion in 2030, and the corresponding CAGR from 2023 to 2030 is projected to be 34.2%.

B5G/6G builds on the foundation of three major characteristics and usage scenarios of 5G: enhanced mobile broadband (eMMB), ultra-reliable low-latency communication (uRLLC), and massive machine-type communication (mMTC). Compared with 5G, B5G/6G promises communication speeds 10 to 100 times faster than 5G, with peak speeds reaching up to 1Tbps. Its latency is set to be just one-tenth of 5G, and its device connectivity is greater than that of 5G by 10 times. “The ITU-R Framework for IMT-2030” released by the Radio Communication Sector of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU-R) in June 2023, outlined three emerging usage scenarios for 6G: integration of sensing and communication, integration of AI and communication, and ubiquitous connectivity.

Analysts at TrendForce state that apart from having higher speed and lower latency, another prominent feature of 6G is its support for terahertz communication. This means that 6G will encompass not only existing ground-based networks as in previous generations but also low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Such integration will provide even more comprehensive network coverage. Moreover, 6G is closely intertwined with advanced sensing and AI functionalities, allowing for unprecedented optimization in end-to-end network performance, power consumption, and AI-enabled applications.

Unlike 5G, which mainly operates in the millimeter-wave frequency range (i.e., 24~71GHz), B5G/6G is going to bring about a significant advancement of utilizing higher-frequency millimeter-wave (mmWave) bands (i.e., 71~92GHz) and sub-terahertz (sub-THz) bands (i.e., 92~300GHz). It should be noted that terahertz bands (300GHz~3THz) are not a major focus in the development of 6G at the current stage.

In June 2023, 3GPP held its 100th member meeting in Taiwan, and local ICT companies that attended this event include MediaTek, Chunghwa Telecom, Foxconn, ASUS, Taiwan Mobile, Far EasTone, HTC, Quanta, Pegatron, Auden Techno, Rapidtek, and Askey Computer. Together, 3GPP and Taiwan-based companies are driving the advancement of 6G, and this collaboration will help Taiwan secure an influential position in the global telecom sector with respect to the development and market deployment of critical technologies.

With 2030 anticipated to be the inaugural year for 6G, many leading ICT companies have formulated forward-looking strategies. At this year’s Mobile World Congress (MWC 2024), Qualcomm unveiled the world’s first prototype of Giga-MIMO antennas designed to operate in the 13GHz band, thereby meeting the higher capacity needs of the upcoming 6G era.

Recently, South Korea’s SK Telecom has partnered with Intel to develop “Inline Service Mesh,” capable of reducing latency in 6G backbone networks by 70% and boosting service efficiency by 33%. SK Telecom has also joined forces with Nokia and NTT Docomo to expand the scope of testing and validation for “6G AI-Native Air Interface (AI-AI),” which can contribute to further improvements in the performance and energy efficiency of networks.

With a World-class ICT Industry, Taiwan Occupies a Crucial Position in the Supply Chain for FWA-related Products

With the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments around the world are rolling out broadband subsidy schemes to address the issue of the digital divide. In addition to optical fiber infrastructure, FWA is also expected to play a vital role in rapidly expanding broadband access as it can provide fixed network services through mobile networks. FWA has the advantages of being highly cost-effective and eliminating the deployment of cables. Therefore, it offers the greatest benefit for remote rural communities where network connection costs are high, as well as countries with low broadband penetration rates.

Presently, the US is leading the adoption of FWA, followed by Europe. Since many countries have strict regulations concerning the preservation of historical buildings and other kinds of landmarks, local telecom companies have to devise network deployment methods that do not damage or modify building structures or local environments. Moreover, emerging countries, too, are actively investing in the build-out of FWA infrastructure. Examples include the Philippines, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and countries in the Middle East.

TrendForce estimates that the shipment volume of 5G FWA equipment reached approximately 7.6 million units in 2022, marking a 111% year-on-year increase. The projected shipment volumes for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 13 million units, 18 million units, and 22.5 million units respectively, with the corresponding year-on-year growth rates coming to 71%, 38%, and 25%. Additionally, research from Ericsson indicates that by the end of 2021, the number of FWA connections was nearly 90 million. This figure is expected to triple to around 230 million by 2027.

Taiwan has emerged as a global supply hub for FWA-related products, boasting the world’s most comprehensive and technologically mature industry chain for networking equipment, optical fiber communication equipment, and semiconductor components. Examples of notable suppliers for telecommunication equipment include Sercomm, Alpha Networks, ZYXEL, Gemtek, WNC, Askey Computer, Arcadyan, and Hitron Technologies. As for Taiwan-based suppliers for products related to fiber optic communication, they include Landmark Optoelectronics, PCL-KY, Apogee, Truelight, and Luxnet. Turning to suppliers for semiconductor components purposed for networking applications, Taiwan’s MediaTek has long been a major player. Altogether, these companies are expected to sustain impressive performance.

Local Team Is Being Formed for the Development of LEO Satellites

The Russia-Ukraine military conflict, now entering its third year, has highlighted SpaceX’s Starlink as a critical communication technology, sustaining uninterrupted communication links among various units of the Ukrainian armed forces. The conflict has greatly bolstered the reputation of Starlink and reignited the world’s interest in LEO satellites. As early as May 21st, 2021, Taiwan’s Executive Yuan approved a plan to promote the development of the “six core strategic industries,” including the aerospace sector. The plan prioritizes the development of LEO satellites and related ground equipment. Now, Taiwan’s government has provided additional funding of over TWD 40 billion into the field of LEO satellites. Specifically, the government supports the manufacturing of satellites, establishment of a local launch site, and cultivation of industry professionals.

During the 2023 Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition, Wu Jong-shinn, Director General of the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), announced that Taiwan had initiated its program for the development of orbital launch vehicles. The program aims to launch a 200-kilogram satellite into low Earth orbit by 2023, at altitudes ranging from 500 to 2,000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. Moreover, TASA plans to launch Taiwan’s first LEO satellite to support the B5G network in 2026. TRITON (FORMOSAT-7R), Taiwan’s first satellite with 83% of its parts locally sourced, was successfully launched in October 2023. This event represents an important milestone in the development of Taiwan’s aerospace sector and the related supply chain.

The introduction of LEO satellite communication into the consumer market can be traced back to February 2023 when MediaTek showcased the world’s first 5G satellite communication smartphone at MWC. Additionally, Huawei’s Mate 60 and Apple’s iPhone 14 and Apple Watch Series 8, released in the same year, all feature support for satellite communication. However, the related functionality is limited to either sending emergency messages or SOS emergency services. Nevertheless, AST SpaceMobile subsequently launched the BlueWalker 3 in September 2023, thereby establishing the world’s first “direct-to-cell” mobile broadband network. With the integration of terrestrial and non-terrestrial communication technologies under 6G, people will be able to access internet connection everywhere.

Taiwan Is Building the Most Competitive Industry Chain for Wi-Fi 7 so as to Seize Future Demand

Currently, Wi-Fi 6/6E still dominates the wireless network market. However, with the Wi-Fi Alliance releasing Wi-Fi CERTIFIED 7, MediaTek has established a coalition for the creation of a related testing and certification platform. Specifically, MediaTek is assisting its partners such as ASUS, BUFFALO, Hisense, Lenovo, TCL, TP-Link, and others in launching various kinds of devices that support the Wi-Fi 7 standard.

The market outlook for Wi-Fi 7 is bright as this new standard brings significant improvements in terms of transmission speed and latency reduction. Apart from being 4.8 times faster than Wi-Fi 6/6E, Wi-Fi 7 has important new features such as multi-link operation (MLO) and multi-resource units that meet the performance demands from various services and applications (i.e., “ultra” with respect to high transmission speed, low latency, and high reliability). Moreover, compared to upgrades between previous generations, there is strong confidence within the market that Wi-Fi 7 will rapidly attain widespread adoption and a higher penetration rate.

In the market for Wi-Fi chips, competition for dominance in the Wi-Fi 7 segment has been heating up since Qualcomm launched the FastConnect 7800, the world’s first Wi-Fi 7 chip, in February 2022. While many chip suppliers are still developing the first generation of Wi-Fi 7 chips, market leader Broadcom sought to outdistance its competitors by launching its second-generation Wi-Fi solutions in June 2023. Broadcom’s second-generation Wi-Fi 7 APs include the BCM6765 for residential networking equipment and the BCM47722 for commercial networking equipment.

Following suit, Qualcomm also unveiled its second-generation Wi-Fi 7 chip, the FastConnect 7900, on February 26th of this year. Designed for smartphones, the FastConnect 7900 is the industry’s first solution with a built-in AI engine and is scheduled to hit the market in the second half of this year. Meanwhile, Intel has introduced the BE200, a Wi-Fi 7 module designed for integration with the motherboard of a desktop or laptop PC. Currently, wireless networking cards with the BE200 are now available for purchase.

Moreover, various kinds of products and components containing Realtek’s Wi-Fi chips have been released into the market as well. They include Acer’s laptops, Azure Wave’s wireless modules, RichWave’s RF ICs, VPEC’s power amplifier, and networking equipment from WNC, Sercomm, and Senao Networks. Shipments of these end products have been gradually ramping up. All in all, with a plethora of new products hitting the market, 2024 can be regarded as the inaugural year for Wi-Fi 7.

TrendForce’s research indicates that after a downturn in 2023, the global market for Wi-Fi chips is projected to reach USD 20.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1%. The market is expected to expand further to USD 21.9 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%. Regarding the market penetration of Wi-Fi 7, devices adhering to this standard accounted for just 1% of total shipments worldwide in 2023. By 2024, this share is expected to increase to 8%; and by 2025, it is forecasted to grow to 18%. According to Wi-Fi Alliance projections, the number of devices with Wi-Fi 7 will surpass 233 million in 2024; and by 2028, the total number of Wi-Fi 7 products across all categories will surpass 2.1 billion.

Join the AI grand event at Computex 2024, alongside CEOs from AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, and ARM. Discover more about this expo! https://bit.ly/44Gm0pK

(Photo credit: Sercomm)

DRAM Spot Market:

In the spot market, the demand momentum has not been strong enough to push up prices further since the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Hence, the overall transaction volume remains low. Demand is tepid for modules as buyers are relatively passive during the slow season. As for chips, their prices have been propped up by sporadic transactions. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.41% from US$1.950 last week to US$1.942 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

The NAND Flash spot market continues with its sluggishness this week. Sellers, taking into account the extended days of sales, have been engaging in active quotations and offering room for bargaining to conclude transactions, while buyers, who have dissipated in rush orders, together with their sufficient inventory in handling corresponding demand, have been reluctant in undertaking the aforementioned offering. On the whole, NAND Flash spots are experiencing a confined extent of increment amidst sluggishness. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 4.28% this week, arriving at US$3.585.