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2024-11-08

[News] Latest Progress on Three Semiconductor Fabs

Leading foundries have been making significant moves, reshaping the semiconductor industry landscape. Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporationrecently announced its entry into the 12-inch wafer foundry business, marking the beginning of a new phase in its strategic transformation for the next 30 years, with silicon carbide (SiC) also included in its development plan.

Meanwhile, India’s first 12-inch wafer plant has begun operations, with the Indian government approving five semiconductor plant construction projects valued at approximately USD18 billion. Additionally, TSMC’s world-first 2nm wafer plant is set for completion by the end of this month. Industry sources indicate that AI-related demand is expected to surge, further boosting TSMC’s profitability.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation Enters 12-Inch Wafer Foundry Market, Aiming for TWD 100 Billion in Annual Revenue in Five Years

On November 2, Vanguard Chairman Mr. Leuh Fang announced that the company officially entered the 12-inch wafer foundry sector and is building a new plant. Both the company and stakeholders have high hopes for the plan, aiming for annual revenue to grow from TWD 50 billion to TWD 100 billion in five years once the new plant reaches full capacity. Fang emphasized that Vanguard announced a USD 7.8 billion investment in collaboration with NXP Semiconductor to build a 12-inch wafer fab, with TSMC providing all necessary critical technology and resources.

On June 5, Vanguard and NXP jointly announced plans to construct a 12-inch wafer fab in Singapore with a total investment of USD 7.8 billion. The fab will employ 130nm to 40nm technology and produce mixed-signal, power management, and analog products for automotive, industrial, consumer electronics, and mobile device markets.

Indias First 12-Inch Wafer Plant Begins Operations

On November 1, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) announced the official launch of its joint project with Tata Electronics to construct India’s first 12-inch wafer fab. PSMC has received the first payment for Fab IP from Tata, and the construction project will proceed actively. Meanwhile, high-capacity interposer chips, validated by customers, will also begin mass production and delivery.

This 12-inch fab, with a total investment of USD 11 billion, will focus on power management ICs, panel driver chips, microcontrollers, and high-speed computing logic chips. It is projected to have a monthly capacity of 50,000 wafers, primarily serving automotive, computing, data storage, wireless communication, and AI applications. The plant is scheduled for completion and mass production by 2026.

Worlds First 2nm Wafer Plant Nears Completion by End of Month

According to recent supply chain news, TSMC’s Kaohsiung P1 site for its first 2nm wafer fab is nearing completion, with a ceremony planned for November 26 and equipment installation set to begin on December 1.

TSMC’s 2nm production will take place at its Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) Baoshan F20 fab and Kaohsiung Nanzi F22 fab. The Baoshan fab is expected to complete a mini production line by the end of the year, targeting volume production by Q4 2025 with a monthly capacity of around 30,000 wafers. Commercial production at the Kaohsiung F22 fab will commence in Q1 2026, also with a monthly capacity of 30,000 wafers.

TSMC’s Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei have highlighted unprecedented demand for the 2nm process. Current planned capacity for the 2nm process has already surpassed that of the previous 3nm generation, underscoring the strong market demand for advanced process technology. Reportedly, TSMC has validated its 2nm product roadmap with customers, with process quotes exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.

(Photo credit: Vanguard)

2024-11-08

[News] TSMC May Face Potential Tax Hikes in the Trump 2.0 Era

According to a report from Economic Daily News, Trump’s return to the White House  ushers in a “Trump 2.0” era, potentially posing new challenges for TSMC, as Trump previously threatened to charge a “protection fee” due to TSMC’s stronghold on U.S. chip production. The report highlighted that, according to industry assessments, TSMC faces a high likelihood of tax increases.

The report, citing industry sources, outlined four potential scenarios for TSMC under a “Trump 2.0” administration: 1) increased taxes and removal of subsidies, the least favorable for TSMC; 2) increased taxes with conditional subsidies, which might require TSMC to expand its U.S. investments or accelerate the setup of advanced manufacturing processes in the U.S.; 3) no tax increase but removal of subsidies; and 4) no change in taxes or subsidies, the most favorable but least likely scenario.

According to the report, given Trump’s “America First” stance, maintaining the status quo is unlikely. The report pointed out, Trump is likely to choose between raising taxes and adjusting the CHIPS Act subsidies, or implement both simultaneously, to “deal with” TSMC.

The report highlighted that, at present, increased taxes seem more likely, which TSMC might counter by raising prices for its customers. However, if the Trump administration were to make increased U.S. investments a condition for subsidies, TSMC would face challenges with higher capital expenditures and rising manufacturing costs.

However, the report noted that, while the CHIPS Act’s overall direction will impact TSMC, local policies could also play a significant role due to the division of responsibilities between federal and state governments in the U.S.

On the other hand, regarding TSMC’s domestic competitor in the U.S., the report suggests that under Trump’s “America First” policy, struggling Intel could experience a revival. The government may increase subsidies for Intel and seek support from other U.S. companies or large investors, potentially including acquisitions of some Intel divisions by major players like AMD or Marvell, bringing in additional financial support.

According to the report, citing industry sources, if Trump pursues “protection fees” and prioritizes U.S. manufacturing, it could accelerate the semiconductor industry’s shift away from globalization, reflecting TSMC founder Morris Chang’s prediction that “globalization is dead” amid rising geopolitical tensions.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

Please note that this article cites information from Economic Daily News.

2024-11-07

[News] Apple Considers Color Filter for OLED Panel in Budget-Friendly MR Device

According to a report from TechNews, citing Korean media outlet The Elec, Apple was exploring two options for applying the color filter to the OLED panel intended for the more affordable Vision Pro device.

The report from The Elec indicates that this yet-to-be-named MR device from Apple will use a panel that is based on a glass board with white OLED deposited on it, topped by an RGB color filter to create various colors—a method known as W-OLED+CF. For resolution, Apple is thinking about 1,500ppi.

The report points out that since this device will use a glass board, it is not OLEDoS (OLED on silicon), different from the current Vision Pro that uses Sony’s OLEDoS technology with a resolution of 3,400ppi.

The report mentions that Apple is considering two approaches to apply the color filter
for this new device. The first approach is to directly form the color filter on the thin-film encapsulation (TFE) that covers the panel. The second, more standard approach, involves forming the color filter on a glass board and then combining it with another glass board with W-OLED deposited on it, making the W-OLED glass board the base and the color filter board the top.

Apple is leaning towards the first approach—forming the filter directly on TFE—as it would require only one glass board, making the MR device thinner, according to the report from The Elec.

However, the color filter formation of TFE demands a low-temperature process to avoid damaging the OLED, which makes it more challenging, as the report from The Elec mentions. Samsung currently uses this technique of directly forming the color filter on its foldable phones, which is known as color filter on encapsulation (CoE).

However, according to the report, Apple aims for a resolution of 1,500ppi, but the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold6 inner panel has a resolution of just 374ppi. To achieve such high resolution, additional technological costs will be involved.

The report indicates that Samsung remains the most likely supplier of W-OLED+CF panels for Apple’s new MR product.

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(Photo credit: Apple)

Please note that this article cites information from TechNews and The Elec.

2024-11-07

[News] China’s Exports Surge to 27-Month High Amid Potential Trump Tariff Threat

China’s exports showed a significant rebound in October, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) on November 7, marking the highest growth rate since July 2022.

The total export value, measured in USD, reached approximately $309 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, well above the previous month’s 2.7% growth. Imports totaled around $213.34 billion, representing a 2.3% year-on-year decline, which was a notable improvement compared to the 7.2% drop in the prior month. The trade surplus stood at $96 billion, the third-highest monthly record.

By destination, exports to the United States rose by 8.1% year-on-year, up 2.2% from the prior month, while exports to the European Union grew by 12.7%, driven in part by a rush to export ahead of anticipated trade barriers.

On the product level, crude oil imports declined by 9% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, indicative of weak domestic demand. Steel exports surged by 24.4%, showing a 13.1% increase over the prior period, pointing to excess production capacity in China’s industrial sector. Electronic exports, China’s largest category to the U.S., increased by 13.7% year-on-year, expanding by 10.7% from the previous month, though mobile phone exports declined by 0.7%, the only decline within the electronics segment.

In summary, expectations of higher tariffs on Chinese goods by the incoming U.S. administration and rising trade barriers against Chinese steel and electric vehicles have driven Chinese exporters to accelerate shipments. While this may support GDP growth, reliance on exports alone is unlikely to resolve broader economic challenges.

November 8 marks the final day of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee session, with markets closely watching for potential policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand.

2024-11-07

[News] How will a fully Republican administration impact the future trajectory of the U.S. economy?

The U.S. presidential election was held on November 5, and as of 8:00 AM EST on November 6, presidential candidate Donald Trump has secured 295 electoral votes, capturing all seven swing states, effectively confirming his position as the 47th President of the United States.

The Republican Party has also secured 52 seats in the Senate. While the final results for the House of Representatives remain undetermined, current tallies show the Republican Party leading with 204 seats compared to the Democrats’ 188 seats. If the Republicans also gain control of the House, the U.S. will enter a period of unified Republican governance.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Under a fully Republican administration led by Trump, what policies might have an impact on the economy, and how could these policies steer economic trends?

Tariffs and Trade

Trump’s tax policy is expected to focus on extending provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), including lowering the top personal income tax rate and lifetime individual exemption limits, with plans to make these tax cuts permanent. Additionally, he aims to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and exempt tips and overtime pay from income taxes. On the trade front, Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods.

Immigration

During Democratic administrations, a relatively lenient stance on illegal immigration has led to record-high numbers of undocumented immigrants, posing potential threats to domestic security. Trump’s policy aims to expel illegal immigrants as comprehensively as possible. He has pledged to reinstate his first-term immigration policies, including the “Remain in Mexico” policy and the travel ban. Additionally, Trump plans to halt refugee admissions and reduce the number of legal immigrants entering the U.S.

Energy

Trump favors traditional energy sources and views climate change as “a hoax.” He has promised to “unleash” America’s energy sector by reducing restrictions on oil and natural gas exploration and encouraging the construction of more refineries. Trump also intends to repeal the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act to reduce subsidies for wind and solar energy, as well as electric vehicles, while expediting the approval process for coal and nuclear power projects.

Financial Regulation

Trump’s approach to financial regulation has historically been more relaxed. The Federal Reserve introduced the Basel III Accord draft in July of last year, initially requiring banks with assets exceeding $100 billion to hold sufficient capital to absorb potential losses. In September of this year, the Fed proposed raising the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET-1) capital ratio for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), or “too big to fail” banks, to 9%. Trump’s election could potentially lead to the weakening or shelving of Basel III regulations.

Impact on the Economy

Based on the key policies outlined above, we have referred to the report by Oxford Economics to assess how Trump’s policies may influence the economic trajectory.

The report suggests that if Trump is elected with full Republican control, the extension of the TCJA and the exemption of tips and overtime pay from income taxes could boost real GDP by 1% in the short term. However, over the long term, economic growth could slow due to restrictive immigration policies and increased tariffs on imports.

(Source: Oxford Economics)

Regarding inflation, fiscal expansion and higher import tariffs are projected to raise inflation by 0.8 percentage points. However, the Federal Reserve is expected to halt interest rate cuts by 2026 and begin raising rates in 2027 to prevent runaway inflation.

(Source: Oxford Economics)

In summary, under a fully Republican administration led by Trump, tariff policies are likely to be swiftly enacted through executive orders, while the continuation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is expected to further drive individual asset growth. At the same time, corporate tax cuts could attract capital inflows and potential fiscal spending expansion, boosting short-term GDP growth. However, the potential labor shortages resulting from the expulsion of illegal immigrants, along with inflationary pressures stemming from tariff policies, may pose downside risks to long-term GDP growth.

 

(Photo Credit: Donald J. Trump Facebook)

 

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