As the demand for memory chips used in AI remains strong, prompting major memory companies to accelerate their pace on HBM3e and HBM4 qualification, SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung stated on August 7 that driven by the high demand for memory chips like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the market is expected to stay robust until the first half of 2025, according to a report by the Korea Economic Daily.

However, Kwak noted that the momentum beyond 2H25 “remains to be seen,” indicating that the company needs to study market conditions and the situation of supply and demand before making comments further. SK hynix clarified that was not an indication of a possible downturn.

According to the analysis by TrendForce, HBM’s share of total DRAM bit capacity is estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by 2025. In terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024, potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.

SK hynix, as the current HBM market leader, said earlier in its earnings call in July that its HBM3e shipment is expected to surpass that of HBM3 in the third quarter, with HBM3e accounting for more than half of the total HBM shipments in 2024. In addition, it expects to begin supplying 12-layer HBM3e products to customers in the fourth quarter.

The report notes that for now, the company’s major focus would be on the sixth-generation HBM chips, HBM4, which is under development in collaboration with foundry giant TSMC. Its 12-layer HBM4 is expected to be launched in the second half of next year, according to the report.

Samsung, on the other hand, had been working since last year to become a supplier of NVIDIA’s HBM3 and HBM3e. In late July, it is said that Samsung’s HBM3 has passed NVIDIA’s qualification, and would be used in the AI giant’s H20, which has been developed for the Chinese market in compliance with U.S. export controls. On August 6, the company denied rumors that its 8-layer HBM3e chips had cleared NVIDIA’s tests.

Notably, per a previous report from the South Korean newspaper Korea Joongang Daily, following Micron’s initiation of mass production of HBM3e in February 2024, it has recently secured an order from NVIDIA for the H200 AI GPU.

Read more

• [News] SK hynix, TSMC, and NVIDIA Reportedly Forge Alliance to Develop Next-Generation HBM
• [News] SK hynix Secures up to USD 450 Million Funding for Indiana Packaging Facility under CHIPS Act

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

AI industry has been driving semiconductor industry to advance forward. Benefited from the surge in AI-driven demand for advanced process chip, foundry industry is experiencing a gradual turnaround, while demands for consumer chip and automotive chip have not yet fully recovered, and competition remains fierce in the mature process chip sector, representing a stark contrast within the wafer foundry industry.

• Financial Results Indicate Strong AI Development but Weak Automotive Terminal Demands

Recently, several major foundries released their Q2 financial reports and shared outlook on future market conditions.

For the second quarter ending June 30, TSMC reported consolidated revenue of approximately USD 20.82 billion, up 32.8% YoY and 10.3% QoQ, which was attributed to strong demand for its 3nm and 5nm technologies.

As per the financial report, revenue from advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 67% of TSMC’s total wafer revenue in 2Q24. In terms of application areas, HPC has replaced mobile business as the core driver of the company’s growth, contributing 52% of revenue.

Additionally, although TSMC’s automotive electronics revenue grew 5% QoQ, the company warned of a potential downturn in the automotive market this year.

UMC reported Q2 revenue of TWD 56.8 billion, up 4% QoQ. UMC expected customer inventories in the communications, consumer electronics, and computer sectors to return to seasonal levels as usual in the second half of this year, and to reach healthy levels by the end of the year.

However, demand in the automotive end market remains weak, which may extend the period of inventory adjustment, with healthy levels anticipated only by the first quarter of next year.

On August 6, GlobalFoundries released its latest financial report.

In the second quarter of this year, the company achieved revenue of USD 1.63 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. Net profit was USD 155 million, a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%.

Industry sources cited by the report from WeChat account DRAMeXchange believe that during the pandemic, customers in sectors such as IoT, mobile device, and data center accumulated high inventory, which impacted GlobalFoundries’ revenue.

Moreover, the company is experiencing a cyclical downturn due to soft demands in the automotive, industrial, and other sectors.

• Advanced Processes Continue to Thrive while Mature Processes Face Intense Competition

The adoption of AI generative models keeps on the rise, driving high demand for AI chip. In this context, advanced processes have been well-received, leading to price increase and production expansion.

TrendForce’s survey in June showed that TSMC is seeing full capacity utilization in its 5/4nm and 3nm nodes due to strong demand from AI applications, new PC platforms, HPC applications, and high-end smartphones.

Its capacity utilization is expected to exceed 100% in the second half of the year, with visibility extending into 2025. Given cost pressures from overseas expansion and rising electricity prices, TSMC plans to raise prices for its advanced processes, which are experiencing strong demand.

TSMC is seeing full capacity utilization in its 5/4nm and 3nm nodes due to strong demand from AI applications, new PC platforms, HPC applications, and high-end smartphones. Its capacity utilization is expected to exceed 100% in the second half of the year, with visibility extending into 2025.

Given cost pressures from overseas expansion and rising electricity prices, TSMC plans to raise prices for its advanced processes, which are experiencing strong demand.

As per other sources cited by the same report, TSMC informed customers of a price increase for 5/3nm process products in 2024 at the beginning of this year.

In late July, TSMC notified several customers that due to rising costs, prices for 5/3nm process products will increase again starting January 2025, and the increase will range from 3-8%, depending on the tape-out plan, product, and partnership.

Meanwhile, the surge in demand for advanced packaging driven by AI will also lead to higher CoWoS prices.

To seize the significant opportunities brought by AI, many companies are actively investing in advanced processes. Currently, the 3nm process is the most advanced in the industry.

Meanwhile, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Rapidus are vigorously promoting the construction of 2nm fabs. Previously, TSMC and Samsung intended to produce 2nm chip at scale in 2025, while Rapidus planed to start trial production in 2025.

Following 2nm, 1nm chip will be the next goal for these fabs. According to their plans, the industry is likely to see the mass production of 1nm chip from 2027 to 2030.

Unlike the rising prices and volume in advanced process chip, mature process chip faces some uncertainty due to weaker-than-expected recovery in end-user demand, and sees more intense competition among manufacturers.

TrendForce’s survey reveals that the capacity utilization rates of PSMC and Vanguard is expected to improve more than anticipated in the second half of the year. However, overall demand for mature processes remains weak, with average capacity utilization still around 70–80%—indicating no significant shortages.

TrendForce further pointed out that in 2024, concerns over global inflation and weak recovery in end-demand may result in inconsistent momentum in replenishing inventory. Many foundries might offer price incentives to attract customers and boost capacity utilization, leading to a decline in overall ASP.

Furthermore, a significant amount of new capacity is expected to come online in 2025, including TSMC JASM, PSMC P5, SMIC’s new Beijing/Shanghai plants, HHGrace Fab9, HLMC Fab10, and Nexchip N1A3.

This increase in mature process capacity could intensify competition and impact future pricing negotiations.

Read more

• [News] Intel and NVIDIA’s New Platform Orders Rolling Out, TSMC Unaffected by Market Turbulence
• Foundry Market Shows Mixed Conditions with Price Adjustments for Specific Chinese Processes and Anticipated Price Increases for Taiwanese Advanced Processes, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from wccftech, leading semiconductor foundry TSMC is preparing to increase the prices of its 3nm and 5nm processes. Reportedly, this move is said to maintain its long-term gross profit margin of 53% and secure its leadership position in the semiconductor foundry market.

The report notes that considering the high demand for AI, along with orders for consumer products from IC design companies like Apple and Qualcomm, TSMC’s production capacity remains tight.

Therefore, TSMC is reportedly planning to increase the prices of its advanced processes, such as 3nm and 5nm, by 8%, thereby ensuring stable long-term profit margins. Notably, a previous report from Commercial Times have cited sources, indicating that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang once agreed that TSMC’s pricing is too low and will support its price increase actions.

Although the price increase has been rumored for some time, the sources cited by wccftech indicate that TSMC may implement the hike soon.

Currently, TSMC’s 3nm and 5nm process utilization rates are at 100%, indicating complete market dominance in these processes. This already allows TSMC to profit significantly, and the price increase will further benefit their operations.

In addition to advanced processes, there are rumors that TSMC is also raising the price of CoWoS packaging due to the massive demand for AI chips from AMD and NVIDIA. Although specific figures have not been disclosed, TSMC’s rapid expansion of its CoWoS production lines makes the price increase likely.

It’s previously estimated by sources cited in MoneyDJ’s report that TSMC’s CoWoS capacity remains in short supply, at 35,000 to 40,000 wafers per month this year. With the additional outsourced capacity, next year’s production could reach over 65,000 wafers per month, or possibly higher.

Read more

• [News] CoWoS Booming, TSMC Price Hikes Reportedly Imminent
• [News] NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Supports C.C. Wei’s Theory and Backs for TSMC to Increase Price

(Photo credit: TSMC)

The General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China released the import and export data for July on August 7. The total export value in July, measured in USD, was $300.5 billion, representing a 7.0% year-on-year growth. However, this figure is lower than June’s 8.6% growth and falls short of the market expectation of 9.7%. Meanwhile, the total import value reached $215.9 billion, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase, significantly higher than June’s -2.3%.

As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s slowdown in export growth may reflect a deceleration in global economic growth. With labor markets and consumer spending in various countries continuing to show weakness, coupled with strained trade relations due to China’s previous high export volumes, it may be challenging for China’s export growth to maintain its current pace for the remainder of the year.

The increase in imports might slightly alleviate the issue of weak domestic demand. During China’s Politburo meeting held on July 30, it was mentioned that policy efforts would be made to strengthen countercyclical adjustments, promote large-scale updates of equipment and durable goods, and enhance the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income groups.

However, these policies lack detailed implementation strategies. Similar to the Third Plenary Session, phrases such as “New quality productive forces” and “high-quality development,”  have been brought up frequently, but specific measures to boost domestic demand were only briefly mentioned.

In summary, with the potential decline in export growth due to the global economic slowdown and the uncertainty surrounding domestic demand stimulus policies, China faces significant challenges in achieving its annual GDP growth target of 5%.

Read more at Datatrack

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(Photo Credit: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China)

Driven by AI demand, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced on August 5 that global semiconductor sales for the second quarter of this year increased by 18.3% year-over-year and 6.5% quarter-over-quarter, reaching USD 149.9 billion.

SIA data shows that in June 2024, global semiconductor sales increased by 18.3% year-over-year and 1.7% month-over-month, reaching USD 50 billion.

In terms of sales by country or region, in June alone, the U.S. market recorded USD 14.77 billion in sales in June, posting a 42.8% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, sales in China reached USD 15.09 billion, marking a 21.6% year-over-year increase.

Aside from the U.S. and China, the Asia Pacific and other areas saw sales of USD 12.15 billion in June, marking a 12.7% year-over-year increase. In contrast, Japan experienced a 5% decrease to USD 3.78 billion, and Europe saw an 11.2% decrease to USD 4.18 billion.

Comparing these figures to May, U.S. sales grew by 6.3%, while sales in Japan and China increased by 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively. However, European sales decreased by 1%, and sales in the Asia Pacific and other areas declined by 1.4%.

SIA President and CEO John Neuffer stated that the semiconductor market continued to perform well in the second quarter of 2024. This quarter’s sales have surpassed the record set in the fourth quarter of 2021 after a gap of two and a half years, and have also seen a sequential increase for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023.

The SIA recently forecasted that global semiconductor sales will grow by 16% in 2024, reaching USD 611.2 billion, and will further increase to USD 687.4 billion next year, continuing to set new historical records. According to the SIA, the primary driver of this growth is the booming development of generative AI, which is boosting overall industry demand.

Read more

• [News] China’s Semiconductor Industry Ushers in a New Period
• [Insights] Trendforce: Foundry Capacity Market Share of Advanced Process to Decline in Taiwan, Korea until 2027, While US on the Rise

(Photo credit: TSMC)