In the past two years, the semiconductor industry has experienced a market downturn, a recovery slower than expected, and a cash crunch. Major companies such as Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, while continuing to advance their expansion projects, have been constantly adjusting and slowing down the pace and schedule of their fab construction to better serve their long-term development goals. It’s found that seven fabs worldwide are projected to delay construction.

• Intel’s 1nm Chip Plant in Germany and Ohio Plant in the US Delay Construction

According to a report from global media outlet Volksstimme, the construction of Intel’s Fab 29.1 and Fab 29.2 near Magdeburg, Germany, has been postponed due to pending approval of EU subsidies and the need to remove and reuse black soil. The date of commencement has been pushed from summer 2024 to May 2025.

Earlier reports indicated that the construction of this chip planr was initially expected to begin in 1H23, but due to subsidy delays, construction was put off to summer 2024. Moreover, the topsoil at the construction site cannot be cleared until May 2025 at the earliest.

It is reported that Intel’s Fab 29.1 and Fab 29.2 were originally scheduled to start operations by late 2027 and were expected to employ advanced manufacturing processes, potentially Intel 14A (1.4nm) and Intel 10A (1nm) process nodes. However, Intel now estimates that it will take four to five years to build these two plants, and production is expected to commence between 2029 and 2030.

• Samsung’s Chip Plant in Pyeongtaek, South Korea and Fab in Taylor, US Delay Construction

In February 2024, Samsung revealed that it had partially halted the construction of its fifth semiconductor plant in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province. Samsung originally planned to build six semiconductor plants on an 855,000 square meter site in Pyeongtaek, creating the world’s largest semiconductor hub. Currently, the P1, P2, and P3 plants at the Pyeongtaek park house the most advanced DRAM, NAND flash memory, and foundry production lines, while the P4 and P5 plants are under construction.

Samsung stated that the halt was for further inspection. However, industry sources have revealed that Samsung’s adjustment of the new production lines for P4 and P5 fabs is to prioritize the construction of the PH2 production line at P4 fab. It is reported that P4 plant might build PH3 production line to produce high-end DRAM to meet market demands.

Besides, South Korean media Businesskorea also revealed Samsung has postponed the mass production timeline of the fab in Taylor, Texas, US from late 2024 to 2026, which is possibly due to a slowdown in the wafer foundry market growth, and the delay was attributed to U.S. government subsidies and issues related to the complexities in gaining permits.

• TSMC Postponed the Production of Two Plants in Arizona, US

On April 9, TSMC announced the plan to build a third fab in Arizona. Once completed, this fab will use 2nm process or even more advanced technologies to manufacture wafers for customers. With this addition, TSMC’s total capital expenditure in Phoenix, Arizona, will exceed USD 65 billion.

Meanwhile, TSMC disclosed that their first fab in Arizona will start production in 1H25, using 4nm process. The second fab, initially announced to use 3nm process, will also incorporate the more advanced 2nm process, with mass production set to begin in 2028. This fab was announced in December 2020, which was originally scheduled to start mass production using 3nm process in 2026, primarily, but the latest schedule represents a delay of nearly two years from the original one.

As to the third fab planned to set up in Arizona, TSMC has not yet disclosed the date for construction. However, they mentioned that it will use 2nm process or more advanced ones, with production expected to commence in the late 2030s.

• Wolfspeed’s 8-Inch SiC Fab might Delay Construction to 2025

Wolfspeed’s 8-inch SiC fab in Ensdorf, Saarland planned to invest about EUR 2.75 billion, but the construction has been postponed. The project has already secured subsidies of EUR 360 million from the German federal government and EUR155 million from the Saarland government. In addition, Wolfspeed is also seeking financial assistance from the European Chips Act. ZF will provide Wolfspeed with several hundred million dollars of financial investment in exchange for a minority stake in the plant.

Industry sources indicate that Wolfspeed aims to secure more funding before the groundbreaking ceremony. If it fails to gain financial assistance from the European Chips Act, the project is very likely to be delayed. The plant was initially scheduled to start construction in summer 2024, but Wolfspeed CEO Gregg Lowe revealed that it might now begin in 2025.

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• [News] Intel’s 1nm-class Fabs in Germany Reportedly Delayed Due to Black Soil Concerns and Pending EU Subsidy Approval
• [News] TSMC’s Nanjing Plant Reportedly Pushes for Indefinite Exemption From US Before the May 31 Deadline
  

(Photo credit: TSMC)

To capture the booming demand of AI processors, memory heavyweights have been aggressively expanding HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity, as well as striving to improve its yield and competitiveness. The latest development would be Micron’s reported new plant in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan.

The fab, targeting to produce chips and HBM as early as 2027, is reported to manufacture DRAM with the most advanced “1γ” (gamma; 11-12 nanometers) process, using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment in the meantime.

Why is HBM such a hot topic, and why is it so important?

HBM: Solution to High Performance Computing; Perfectly Fitted for AI Chips

By applying 3D stacking technology, which enables multiple layers of chips to be stacked on top of each other, HBM’s TSVs (through-silicon vias) process allows for more memory chips to be packed into a smaller space, thus shortening the distance data needs to travel. This makes HBM perfectly fitted to high-performance computing applications, which requires fast data speed. Additionally, replacing GDDR SDRAM or DDR SDRAM with HBM will help control energy consumption.

Thus, it would not be surprising that AMD, the GPU heavyweight, collaborated with memory leader SK hynix to develop HBM in 2013. In 2015, AMD launched the world’s first high-end consumer GPU with HBM, named Fiji. While in 2016, NVIDIA introduced P100, its first AI server GPU with HBM.

Entering the Era of HBM3e

Years after the first AI server GPU with HBM was launched, NVIDIA has now incorporated HBM3e (the 5^th generation HBM) in its Blackwell B100/ Hopper H200 models. The GPU giant’s GB200 and B100, which will also adopt HBM3e, are on the way, expected to be launched in 2H24.

The current HBM3 supply for NVIDIA’s H100 is primarily met by SK hynix. In March, it has reportedly started mass production of HBM3e, and secured the order to NVIDIA. In May, yield details regarding HBM3e have been revealed for the first time. According to Financial Times, SK hynix has achieved the target yield of nearly 80%.

On the other hand, Samsung made it into NVIDIA’s supply chain with its 1Znm HBM3 products in late 2023, while received AMD MI300 certification by 1Q24. In March, Korean media Alphabiz reported that Samsung may exclusively supply its 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA as early as September. However, rumors have it that it failed the test with NVIDIA, though Samsung denied the claims, noting that testing proceeds smoothly and as planned.

According to Korea Joongang Daily, Micron has roused itself to catch up in the heated competition of HBM3e. Following the mass production in February, it has recently secured an order from NVIDIA for H200.

Regarding the demand, TrendForce notes that HBM3e may become the market mainstream for 2024, which is expected to account for 35% of advanced process wafer input by the end of 2024.

HBM4 Coming Soon? Major Players Gear up for Rising Demand

As for the higher-spec HBM4, TrendForce expects its potential launch in 2026. With the push for higher computational performance, HBM4 is set to expand from the current 12-layer (12hi) to 16-layer (16hi) stacks. HBM4 12hi products are set for a 2026 launch, with 16hi in 2027.

The Big Three have all revealed product roadmaps for HBM4. SK hynix, according to reports from Wccftech and TheElec, stated to commence large-scale production of HBM4 in 2026. The chip will, reportedly, be the first chip from SK hynix made through its 10-nm class Gen 6 (1c) DRAM.

As the current market leader in HBM, SK hynix shows its ambition in capacity expansion as well as industrial collaboration. According to Nikkei News, it is considering expanding the investment to Japan and the US to increase HBM production and meet customer demand.

In April, it disclosed details regarding the collaboration with TSMC, of which SK hynix plans to adopt TSMC’s advanced logic process (possibly CoWoS) for HBM4’s base die so additional functionality can be packed into limited space.

Samsung, on the other hand, claimed to introduce HBM4 in 2025, according to Korea Economic Daily. The memory heavyweight stated at CES 2024 that its HBM chip production volume will increase 2.5 times compared to last year and is projected to double again next year. In order to embrace the booming demands, the company spent KRW 10.5 billion to acquire the plant and equipment of Samsung Display located in Tianan City, South Korea, for HBM capacity expansion. It also plans to invest KRW 700 billion to 1 trillion in building new packaging lines.

Meanwhile, Micron anticipates launching 12-layer and 16-layer HBM4 with capacities of 36GB to 48GB between 2026 and 2027. After 2028, HBM4e will be introduced, pushing the maximum bandwidth beyond 2+ TB/s and increasing stack capacity to 48GB to 64GB.

Look back at history. As the market demand for AI chips keeps its momentum, GPU companies tend to diversify their sources, while memory giants vie for their favor by improving yields and product competitiveness.

In the era of HBM3, the supply for NVIDIA’s H100 solution is primarily met by SK hynix at first. Afterwards, Samsung’s entry into NVIDIA’s supply chain with its 1Znm HBM3 products in late 2023, though initially minor, signifies its breakthrough in this segment. This trend of diversifying suppliers may continue in HBM4. Who would be able to claim the lion’s share in the next-gen HBM market? Time will tell sooner or later.

Read more

• [News] Micron Reportedly Set to Build New DRAM Plant in Hiroshima, Japan, Operational Expected by End of 2027
• [News] Overview of Expansion Plans by HBM Giants

(Photo credit: Samsung)

On May 30th, Taiwanese Minister of Ministry of Economic Affairs, J.W. Kuo, proposed a crucial industry policy. According to a report from China Times, the first step is to take Taiwan’s manufacturing parks global, with the initial site planned for Kyushu, in conjunction with TSMC’s Kumamoto fab, to create a semiconductor industrial park.

Additionally, the ministry reportedly plans to invite the world’s top 100 companies to set up sales offices in Taiwan as well as offering tax incentives, to attract around 400 million consumers from Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other regions.

Kuo further emphasized the importance of the government’s proactive stance on taking small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their supply chains overseas. The Ministry of Economic Affairs is said to be planning to utilize state-owned enterprises or establish a development service company to help eliminate obstacles to overseas investment. Meanwhile, it also plans to establish an overseas one-stop service window to expedite the setup of plants by companies.

He then pointed out that TSMC already has two fabs in Kumamoto, Japan. The plan, as per the same report, is to set up a semiconductor industrial park in Kyushu, bringing Taiwan’s supply chain to Japan. This park will not only serve TSMC but also local Japanese companies.

Looking ahead, the industrial parks will primarily follow TSMC, expanding to Japan, the USA, and Germany, with plans to relocate 10 to 15% of the supply chain capacity.

Kuo expressed the vision of considering Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam, all within a three-hour flight radius, as Taiwan’s domestic market. Additionally, within four years, the goal is to attract 500 Michelin-starred restaurants, along with popular performances and medical beauty services, to draw consumers from neighboring Asian countries to Taiwan.

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• [News] Export Crisis Averted, TSMC’s Nanjing Plant Reportedly Granted Indefinite Exemption
• [Insights] Trendforce: Foundry Capacity Market Share of Advanced Process to Decline in Taiwan, Korea until 2027, While US on the Rise
  

(Photo credit: TSMC)

The European Commission initiated an investigation into Chinese electric cars in October last year, targeting BYD, SAIC Group and Geely, with plans to impose provisional tariffs on new electric cars imported from China. According to previous media reports, the plans were originally scheduled to be announced by June 5th. However, as per Reuters citing sources in a latest report, the new date for announcing the imposition of temporary tariffs has been set for June 10th, after the European Parliament election.

The sources cited in the report also mentioned that the delay was due to last-minute technical issues with the documents. As of now, the European Commission has not provided comments on this matter.

Yet, the same report further noted that the European Commission has formally warned the three Chinese electric car companies under anti-subsidy investigation that the data they provided for the investigation was insufficient.

According to trade data from 2023, for every additional 10% tariff imposed by the European Union on top of the existing 10%, Chinese electric car exporters would lose approximately $1 billion.

Reuters reported that past subsidy investigations launched by the European Union on other products imported from China resulted in additional tariffs ranging from approximately 9% to 26% for related companies, while the tariffs on the Chinese electric car companies may possbly fall between this range.

The report also indicated that China may be preparing alternative plans for future negotiations. If enough EU members oppose the temporary tariffs after four months, there might be challenges to the EU’s temporary tariffs, possibly leading to their cancellation.

According to an earlier analysis by Trendforce, with China’s subsidies gradually phasing out and the increasing market penetration of NEVs in the country, the growth rate of China’s NEV market is starting to slow. This, coupled with the growing demand for electric vehicles in overseas markets, is prompting numerous Chinese automotive brands to expand internationally. But they may have to counter various challenges, as countervailing duty investigation being one of them.

Read more

• [News] Punitive Tariffs on Chinese EVs by US Reportedly to Further Hinder BYD, Leapmotor and Others’ Global Expansion Plan, while EU Investigation Persists
• [News] EU Reportedly to Counterdump Semiconductor and Electric Vehicles from China

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

According to a report from Liberty Times, Taiwanese foundry UMC stated yesterday that the company’s operations in the second quarter would see a slight increase compared to the first quarter, and the second half of the year would be better than the first half.

With UMC’s technology and processes, the company estimated that it can capture about 10-20% of the AI foundry market share, which is expected to drive future business growth.

• Edge Computing to Become Widespread in 4 Years

At UMC’s shareholder meeting yesterday, Co-General Manager Jason Wang stated that semiconductor applications are becoming increasingly diverse and important. The most promising growth areas include autonomous vehicles, AI servers, and AI PCs.

UMC sees significant growth potential in high-speed transmission and power management. In high-performance computing (HPC), UMC will focus on back-end integration, including interposers and advanced 3D IC packaging.

Jason Wang pointed out that AI is currently in early stages, and thus more focused on building the infrastructure for high-speed computing. However, once the infrastructure is complete, the market will gradually expand to the widespread adoption of edge computing, which he estimates will take about four years.

UMC plans to position itself early, developing technologies that align with customer applications. UMC is optimistic about the market prospects and has high expectations for the future, Wang noted.

UMC’s CFO Chitung Liu stated that while UMC does not have advanced processes for producing HPC chips in the AI field, it has made significant progress in edge computing and related process technologies. With UMC’s technology, processes, and capacity, it is estimated that the company can still capture a 10-20% share of the AI foundry market, which is considerable and will be a major driver of future operational growth.

UMC currently produces CoWoS advanced packaging-related silicon interposers at its Singapore plant, with monthly capacity doubling to 6,000 wafers this year. UMC will continue to invest according to market conditions, according to Liu.

• Effects of U.S.-China Trade War Order Transferring Take At Least Six Month to be Seen

Regarding the benefits of diversification amid the U.S.-China trade war, Liu mentioned that it takes time for customers to redesign and transition orders. It can take at least six to nine months in the short term for the effects to be seen, and up to one to two years in the long term for orders to be successfully transitioned.

Currently, there are no significant effects from diversification in the short term. However, UMC’s production is diversified across regions including Singapore, Japan, China, and Taiwan, with collaborations with Intel in Arizona, USA. Thus, UMC can meet customer needs regardless of where they choose to manufacture, Liu explained.

Liu reiterated the stance from last month’s briefing, stating that the situation in the first half of the year has improved from the economic downturn, and second-quarter revenue is expected to see a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. He hopes for better performance in the second half of the year.

In terms of application markets, the short-term performance of the automotive and industrial sectors appears weak, but growth is expected in the medium to long term. On the other hand, prospects for the communication and consumer sectors in the second half of the year are expected to be better than the first half.

Read more

• [News] UMC’s Global and Local Orders Surge Amid U.S. Tariffs on China and Networking Market Recovery
• [News] UMC Ventures into US Production of 12nm Mature Chips through Collaboration with Intel

(Photo credit: UMC)