TrendForce’s latest findings revealed that as of 2024, Taiwan is expected to lead the global semiconductor foundry capacity in advanced manufacturing processes (including 16/14nm and more advanced technologies) with a 66% market share, followed by Korea (11%), US (10%), and China (9%). However, the semiconductor production capacities of advanced nodes in Taiwan and Korea are projected to decrease to 55% and 8%, respectively, by 2027.

It is worth noting that though semiconductor heavyweights including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung keep raising the amount of investments,  Taiwan and Korea, as the two countries holding the highest market share in advanced nodes, are expected to fall in their market shares.

On the other hand, in the US, where the government has been pushing incentives and subsidies more aggressively, its global capacity share in advanced manufacturing processes is expected to jump from 10% in 2024 to 22% in 2027.

Per the overall foundry capacity, Taiwan is expected to hold approximately 44% of global market share as of 2024, followed by China (28%), South Korea (12%), the US (6%), and Japan (2%). The overall trend is expected to be in line with advanced nodes. In contrast, the overall semiconductor production capacities of Taiwan and South Korea are projected to decrease to 40% and 10%, respectively, by 2027.

China, where foundries focus more on expanding mature process capacities and are backed by government subsidies, is projected to perform relatively strong in the overall global market share, growing from 28% in 2024 to 31% in 2027. Its market share of the matured process (including ≥28nm nodes) capacity is expected to rise from 33% in 2024 to 45% in 2027.

According to a report from THE CHOSUN Daily on May 10th, citing forecast from The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in 2022, Taiwan and Korea held 69% and 31% shares of the production of the most advanced semiconductors below 10 nanometers, while their market share on the advanced nodes may fall to 47% and 9% in 2032, respectively.

The report as mentioned earlier stated that the dramatic decline in South Korea’s semiconductor production share is primarily attributed to key players like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, who currently dominate the global advanced semiconductor market alongside TSMC. However, instead of investing in South Korea, they have opted to establish their latest factories in the United States.

The US government announced earlier in April that it would provide up to USD 6.4 billion in subsidies to Samsung for expanding advanced chip production capacity at its Texas plant. In addition, SK Hynix plans to spend $3.87 billion building an advanced packaging plant and research center for artificial intelligence products in Indiana.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

SoftBank Group’s global IP leader, Arm, has reportedly announced the establishment of an AI chip division with the goal of developing AI chip prototypes by spring 2025. According to a report from DRAMeXchange, mass production will be handled by contract manufacturers, with initial production slated to begin in autumn 2025.

Arm will cover the initial development costs estimated to reach several trillion yen, funded by SoftBank Group. Once a large-scale production system is built, Arm’s AI chip business may be spun off and incorporated into a SoftBank Group division, which is because SoftBank holds a total of 90% of Arm’s shares and has been in talks with TSMC to secure production capacity.

Arm is a significant player in the global semiconductor industry, renowned for its energy-efficient Arm architecture, which commands over 90% of the global market share in smartphone chip field. SoftBank acquired Arm in 2016 for USD 32 billion, empowering Arm to go public on the US stock exchange in September 2023.

Last week, Arm reported fiscal 2024 fourth quarter revenue of USD 928 million (+47% YoY) and adjusted operating profit of USD 391 million. It forecasts first-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be USD 875-925 million, expecting annual revenue to be USD 3.8-4.1 billion.

According to Canada’s Precedence Research, the current market size for AI chips is USD 30 billion, expected to exceed USD 100 billion by 2029 and USD 200 billion by 2032. Despite NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI chip technology, it is unable to meet the growing demand.

Eyeing on the opportunities presented by the AI wave, SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son has identified AI as a key focus area for development and is seeking to raise USD 100 billion to found an AI chip company to compete with NVIDIA.

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• [News] SoftBank Founder Masayoshi Son Plans to Raise USD 100 Billion to Establish AI Chip Company

(Photo credit: SoftBank News)

Industry sources cited by a report from Economic Daily News have indicated that Apple is accelerating the development of its foldable device, moving up the expected launch from 2026 to 2025. Apple has reportedly placed orders for flexible panels from Samsung, with plans for the foldable device to debut with the iPad before expanding to the iPhone.

Moreover, the smartphone market leader is said to have already secured a supply of flexible panels from Samsung in the first half of this year, hinting at its determination to enter the foldable market.

Hinges are expected to be the most crucial and newly added component for Apple’s foldable device, experiencing a surge in demand. Shin Zu Shing, Taiwanese supplier for foldable smartphone hinges, having cooperated with Apple in the field for many years, stands to benefit greatly.

In addition,  other Taiwanese Apple supply chain partners, including Foxconn, Largan Precision, and Pegatron, are anticipated to benefit similarly as with existing iPad and iPhone production. The aforementioned Apple suppliers typically refrain from commenting on individual customer and order dynamics.

A report from SamMobile also indicated that, Apple may have signed a contract with Samsung Display (SDC) for the supply of foldable displays. It is estimated in the same report that limited supplies will begin in 2025, ramping up to mass production in 2026. By 2027, the supply is expected to reach 65 million units, increasing to 100 million units in 2028.

Additionally, the ordered display sizes are larger than those of existing iPhones, indicating that the display components procured by Apple from Samsung will be used in new foldable device products.

Industry sources cited in the report from Economic Daily News believe that Apple’s first foldable device will be unveiled by the end of 2025 or early 2026, targeting the ultra-high-end market segment. It is expected to come in two sizes: 7.9 inches and 8.3 inches, competing against foldable devices from Samsung and Huawei.

According to the analysis released by TrendForce in the second half of last year, Apple’s development in the folding field still requires time. Apple’s foray into foldables has been tepid, to say the least.

TrendForce reports that global shipments of foldable phones reached 15.9 million units in 2023, marking a 25% YoY increase and accounting for approximately 1.4% of the overall smartphone market. In 2024, shipments are expected to rise to about 17.7 million units, growing by 11% and slightly increasing the market share to 1.5%. However, this growth rate remains below market expectations, with the segment’s share predicted to exceed 2% only by 2025.

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• [News] Apple Reportedly Joins the Foldable Phone Market, Setting Stage for Three-Way Competition

(Photo credit: Apple)

According to a report from Korean media The Korea Economic Daily, Samsung Electronics Co. is planning to apply its 3nm process chips to its Galaxy series smartphones and smartwatches, posing a challenge to rivals Apple and TSMC.

The report cited industry sources on May 13th, stating that Samsung’s second-generation 3nm production line in South Korea is set to commence operations in the latter half of this year (2024). The first product to be manufactured on this line will reportedly be the application processor (AP) for the upcoming Galaxy Watch7, tentatively named “Exynos W1000,” which is expected to be unveiled in July.

As per the same report citing sources, the Exynos W1000 is set to utilize the semiconductor industry’s most advanced second-generation 3nm process, with computing performance and power efficiency expected to increase by over 20%. In comparison, the Apple Watch Series 9 utilizes a 5nm application processor.

On another note, industry sources cited by the same report revealed that Samsung’s next-generation flagship smartphone, the Galaxy S25, scheduled for an early 2025 release, will also feature the 3nm Exynos W1000 application processor. Samsung aims to unveil this technology ahead of the Paris Summer Olympics opening on July 26th, with a “Galaxy Unpacked” event scheduled for July 10th in Paris.

The mobile processor industry has entered the 3nm battleground. Per Wccftech’s previous report, it is rumored that TSMC’s N3E process is also used for producing products like the A18 Pro chip scheduled to be used in iPhone 16 Pro, the upcoming Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 4, and the MediaTek Dimensity 9400, among other major clients’ products.

Meanwhile, as per a report from another South Korean media outlet TheElec, Siyoung Choi, the President of Samsung’s Foundry Business, predicted during the annual shareholders’ meeting on March 20th that the second-generation 3nm process is expected to begin production in the latter half of this year, while production for the 2nm process is slated for next year.

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• [News] Apple M4 Incoming, Boosting TSMC’s 3nm Production
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(Photo credit: Samsung)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has planned to build two fabs in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. Kumamoto’s newly appointed governor, Takashi Kimura, who took office in April, stated in an report from Bloomberg on May 11th that he would spare no effort to persuade TSMC to establish a third fab in the region. He has already proposed a visit to TSMC’s headquarters in Taiwan this summer to discuss related matters, aiming to transform Kumamoto into a semiconductor hub.

TSMC has not responded to this matter. While TSMC’s third fab in Kumamoto, as mentioned by Governor Kimura, has not materialized yet, and TSMC has not officially announced it, Bloomberg previously reported that TSMC is considering building a third fab in Japan, which would also be located in Kumamoto and produce more advanced chips.

Regarding the rumored TSMC Kumamoto Fab 3, Takashi Kimura stated, “We are prepared to give our full support.” He expressed his hope to attract numerous semiconductor-related enterprises and research institutions to Kumamoto, aiming to establish an industrial cluster similar to Taiwan’s Hsinchu Science Park. He also hopes Kumamoto will become a birthplace for various industries stemming from semiconductors, including AI, data centers, and autonomous driving technologies.

Kimura believes that during the preparations for TSMC’s first fab in Kumamoto, the region already possesses better-quality road and water infrastructure and an education system that better supports international school students, which could be advantageous.

TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 1, a joint investment between TSMC, Sony Semiconductor Solutions Corporation, and Denso Corporation, was inaugurated in February. TSMC stated in an earlier press release that in response to customer demand, construction of the second JASM (TSMC’s majority-owned manufacturing subsidiary in Kumamoto Prefecture) fab is slated to begin by the end of 2024. The expansion of production capacity is also expected to optimize the overall cost structure and supply chain efficiency of JASM, with operations starting by the end of 2027.

In the future, the two fabs under JASM will enable a total monthly production capacity of over 100,000 12-inch wafers, providing 40-nanometer, 22/28-nanometer, 12/16-nanometer, and 6/7-nanometer processes for automotive, industrial, consumer, and high-performance computing (HPC) applications.

Capacity planning may be adjusted according to customer demand, with the Kumamoto fab directly creating a total of over 3,400 high-tech job opportunities. Through the investment, TSMC, Sony Semiconductor, Denso Corporation, and Toyota Motor Corporation hold approximately 86.5%, 6.0%, 5.5%, and 2.0% of the JASM shares, respectively.

The Kyushu Economic Research Association estimates that these fabs will contribute JPY 10.5 trillion (USD 67.4 billion) to the economy of Kumamoto Prefecture over the next decade.

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• [News] Latest Overview on TSMC’s Global Expansion Initiatives
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)