Amid the AI trend, the significance of high-value-added DRAM represented by HBM continues to grow.

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a type of graphics DDR memory that boasts advantages such as high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption compared to traditional DRAM chips. It accelerates AI data processing speed and is particularly suitable for high-performance computing scenarios like ChatGPT, making it highly valued by memory giants in recent years.

Memory is also representing one of Korea’s pillar industries, and to seize the AI opportunity and drive the development of the memory industry, Korea has recently designated HBM as a national strategic technology.

The country will provide tax incentives to companies like Samsung Electronics. Small and medium-sized enterprises in Korea can enjoy up to a 40% to 50% reduction, while large enterprises like Samsung Electronics can benefit from a reduction of up to 30% to 40%.

Overview of HBM Development Progress Among Top Manufacturers

The HBM market is currently dominated by three major storage giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Since the introduction of the first silicon interposer HBM product in 2014, HBM technology has smoothly transitioned from HBM, HBM2, and HBM2E to HBM3 and HBM3e through iterative innovation.

According to research by TrendForce, the mainstream HBM in the market in 2023 is HBM2e. This includes specifications used in NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and most CSPs’ self-developed acceleration chips. To meet the evolving demands of AI accelerator chips, various manufacturers are planning to launch new products like HBM3e in 2024, expecting HBM3 and HBM3e to become the market norm.

The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.

As for the higher-spec HBM4, TrendForce expects its potential launch in 2026. With the push for higher computational performance, HBM4 is set to expand from the current 12-layer (12hi) to 16-layer (16hi) stacks, spurring demand for new hybrid bonding techniques. HBM4 12hi products are set for a 2026 launch, with 16hi models following in 2027.

Meeting Demand, Manufacturers Actively Expand HBM Production

As companies like NVIDIA and AMD continue to introduce high-performance GPU products, the three major manufacturers are actively planning the mass production of HBM with corresponding specifications.

Previously, media reports highlighted Samsung’s efforts to expand HBM production capacity by acquiring certain buildings and equipment within the Samsung Display’s Cheonan facility.

Samsung plans to establish a new packaging line at the Cheonan plant dedicated to large-scale HBM production. The company has already invested KRW 10.5 trillion in the acquisition of the mentioned assets and equipment, with an additional investment of KRW 700 billion to KRW 1 trillion.

Micron Technology’s Taichung Fab 4 in Taiwan was officially inaugurated in early November 2023. Micron stated that Taichung Fab 4 would integrate advanced probing and packaging testing functions to mass-produce HBM3e and other products, thereby meeting the increasing demand for various applications such as artificial intelligence, data centers, edge computing, and the cloud. The company plans to start shipping HBM3e in early 2024.

In its latest financial report, SK Hynix stated that in the DRAM sector in 2023, its main products DDR5 DRAM and HBM3 experienced revenue growth of over fourfold and fivefold, respectively, compared to the previous year.

At the same time, in response to the growing demand for high-performance DRAM, SK Hynix will smoothly carry out the mass production of HBM3e for AI applications and the research and development of HBM4.

Read more

• Manufacturers Anticipate Completion of NVIDIA’s HBM3e Verification by 1Q24; HBM4 Expected to Launch in 2026, Says TrendForce
• [News] Strong Performance in HBM Ends SK Hynix’s Four Consecutive Quarters of Losses

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

NAND flash memory giants Kioxia and Western Digital (WD) were reported to be in negotiations with intentions to merge. However, the merger talks between Kioxia and WD were halted in October last year due to opposition from SK Hynix, the South Korean memory giant indirectly invested in Kioxia.

As per a report from Japanese media 47news, Kioxia has been making adjustments behind the scenes and is interested in restarting merger negotiations with WD. Kioxia’s major shareholder, Bain Capital, is reportedly in negotiations with SK Hynix.

It is reported that Kioxia is also exploring the possibility of cooperation with SK Hynix, but this may pose risks of violating anti-monopoly laws. If Kioxia and WD ultimately fail to merge, going public independently is also an option for Kioxia.

According to the report citing sources, SK Hynix is concerned that a merger between Kioxia and WD would weaken its influence over Kioxia. Therefore, SK Hynix is interested in participating in the integration to safeguard its influence.

On the other hand, WD has announced on October 30 last year that its board had approved a spin-off plan to separate its NAND flash memory division and establish a new company for independent listing, with operations expected to commence in the second half of 2024.

As per TrendForce’s  data for 3Q23, Samsung maintained its position as the top global NAND flash memory manufacturer, commanding a significant market share of 31.4%. Following closely, SK Group secured the second position with a 20.2% market share. Western Digital occupied the third position with a market share of 16.9%, while Japan’s Kioxia held a 14.5% market share.

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• [News] Kioxia and Western Digital Merger in Turmoil? Reports of SK Hynix Disapproval and a Possible SoftBank Collaboration
• [NEWS] Western Digital and Kioxia Terminate Merger Talk, TrendForce Believes M&A Will Be an Inevitable Trend

(Photo credit: Kioxia)

While TSMC is pushing forward with its 2nm fab in Taiwan, there is also good news about its overseas expansion. According to the Japanese newspaper “Kumanichi,” TSMC is expected to announce the construction of its Kumamoto Fab 2 in Japan on February 6, with the possibility of incorporating the 7nm process. Additionally, the United States is also expected to provide several billion dollars in subsidies to TSMC’s new fab by the end of March.

▲ TSMC’s Layout of Global Production Capacity Edited by TrendForce, January, 2024

Per the report from the ” Kumanichi,” Japan’s Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Tetsushi Sakamoto, who hails from Kumamoto, stated during a local meeting on January 28th that TSMC is evaluating Kumamoto Prefecture’s Kikuyo Town as the location for its second fab. The announcement of the site for Fab 2 in Kumamoto is expected to be made as early as February 6th.

The report further indicates that Fab 2 is expected to be situated next to the first fab, which was completed at the end of last year. TSMC had previously mentioned that if a second fab were to be constructed, it would be located in the vicinity of the existing facility under construction.

Regarding the rumors, the spokesperson for TSMC stated that the expansion strategy of TSMC’s global manufacturing footprint is based on considerations of customer demand, business opportunities, operational efficiency, government support, and economic costs.

Through necessary investments, TSMC continues to support customer demands and respond to the structural growth of semiconductor technology in the long term. “We are currently focusing on evaluating the possibility of setting up a second fab in Japan, and there is no further information to share at the moment.”

During the recent earnings call, Mark Liu also mentioned that the plan for TSMC’s second fab in Japan is still under evaluation. However, he hinted at the possibility of adopting the 7-nanometer process.

TSMC’s Kumamoto plant is scheduled to hold its opening ceremony on February 24th. After retiring following the shareholders’ meeting in June this year, TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, along with the designated successor and current President C.C.Wei, will lead several top executives to Japan for the event. TSMC has also invited Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to attend.

The decision for TSMC to establish a plant in Kumamoto, Japan, was announced in October 2021, and construction began in 2022. In comparison to TSMC’s announcement of a plant in the United States in 2020, which faced delays and is set to commence production in 2025, the Japanese plant has advanced more swiftly.

This aligns with TSMC founder Morris Chang’s statement last year that Japan is considered an ideal location for establishing a semiconductor supply chain.

Analyst Joanne Chiao from TrendForce previously pointed out that Japan’s expertise in materials and machinery is one of the factors attracting TSMC’s expansion. Japan stands to benefit from TSMC’s establishment as the pace of creating a local semiconductor ecosystem by Japanese government surpasses that of the U.S. government.

On the other hand, despite TSMC delaying the production at its new US plant, according to Bloomberg, the United States plans to announce substantial chip subsidies by the end of March. The aim is to pave the way for chip manufacturers like TSMC and Intel by providing them with billions of dollars to accelerate the expansion of domestic chip production.

These subsidies are a core component of the US 2022 “CHIPS and Science Act,” which allocates a budget of USD 39 billion to directly subsidize and revitalize American manufacturing.

Read more

• [News] Completion of TSMC’s Kumamoto Plant, Grand Opening on 2/24
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated on January 26th that the U.S. government will propose that American cloud computing companies determine whether foreign entities are accessing U.S. data centers to train artificial intelligence models.

The proposed “know your customer” regulation was made available for public inspection on January 26th and is scheduled for publication on January 29th.

According to a report from Reuters, Raimondo stated during her interview that, “We can’t have non-state actors or China or folks who we don’t want accessing our cloud to train their models.”

“We use export controls on chips,” she noted. “Those chips are in American cloud data centers so we also have to think about closing down that avenue for potential malicious activity.”

Raimondo further claimed that, the United States is “trying as hard as we can to deny China the compute power that they want to train their own (AI) models, but what good is that if they go around that to use our cloud to train their models?”

Since the U.S. government introduced chip export controls to China last year, NVIDIA initially designed downgraded AI chips A800 and H800 for Chinese companies. However, new regulations in October of 2023 by the U.S. Department of Commerce brought A800, H800, L40S, and other chips under control.

Raimondo stated that the Commerce Department would not permit NVIDIA to export its most advanced and powerful AI chips, which could facilitate China in developing cutting-edge models.

In addition to the limitations on NVIDIA’s AI chips, the U.S. government has also imposed further restrictions on specific equipment. For example, ASML, a leading provider of semiconductor advanced lithography equipment, announced on January 1st, 2024, that it was partially revoking export licenses for its DUV equipment in relation to the U.S. government.

Read more

• [News] New Focus in the US-China Tech War! Can China Overtake with Silicon Photonics?
• [News] NVIDIA Rumored to Downgrade AI Chips for China Amid U.S. Restrictions, Year-End Mass Production Expected

(Photo credit: iStock)

Negotiations between Hyundai Motor and the U.S. government concerning tax incentives for the Korean automaker’s USD 5.5 billion EV plant in Georgia have yet to reach a conclusion.

It was first reported on August 31st 2023, indicating that Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution (LGES) would invest an additional USD 2 billion in their battery cell manufacturing joint venture (JV) at the Metaplant in Bryan County, Georgia.

The company subsequently aimed to expedite the construction of its factory in Georgia and establish partnerships with local battery suppliers to align with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as stated by Hyundai’s CFO Seo Gang-Hyun during an earnings call.

In an latter interview, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp expressed concerns that the IRA is adversely affecting Korean companies. Korea Joongang Daily further noted that no Korean electric vehicles, including those from Hyundai Motor and Kia, are currently listed for the IRA tax credit. According to TrendForce’s analyst, the market share in 2023 for Hyundai Motor and Kia combined is 10.6%, which ranks as 4th in the US market, behind GM, Toyota, and Ford.

Currently, the U.S. Energy Department has reportedly yet provided a definitive response to Hyundai’s request for a 30 percent tax credit under the IRA, as per a report from the Korean media outlet Korea Joongang Daily. As reported by The Korea Daily, the potential value of these incentives could be around USD 350 million.

“We’ve been constantly discussing with the U.S. government for the incentives,” Hyundai Motor confirmed regarding the news. “Nothing has been decided, and we’re waiting for the result.” Still, reportedly, Hyundai and Kia have not announced any cuts to EV production or investment.

TrendForce notes that the automotive industry is currently facing high raw material and labor costs, as well as significant investments in electrification and autonomous driving. Balancing the protection of local enterprises, maintaining competitiveness, and managing consumer costs is an urgent task for governments worldwide. Most countries are focusing on the country of origin rather than the brand of vehicles in their restrictive measures.

Measures taken by the US—specifically for EVs—include requiring that EVs and their batteries be assembled in North America. Furthermore, critical minerals in the batteries must originate from countries that have signed free trade agreements with the US to qualify for subsidies totaling US$7,500.

Read more

• [Insights] Hyundai Defies Headwinds with 1.52 Billion Groundbreaking for Electric Vehicle Plant

(Photo credit: Hyundai)