TrendForce releases the latest trends in memory spot prices. Due to sellers halting quotations, DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 have all seen price increases. It is expected that prices will decline once quotations are fully resumed. On the other hand, with no strong signs of recovery in end-market demand for NAND Flash, inquiry interest remains subdued. Details below:

DRAM Spot Market:

In the spot market, sellers and module houses suspended quoting following Taiwan’s earthquake on April 3, leading to incremental price rises over several days. This upward trend applies to DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 products. However, the spot market still lacks demand, and transactions have been limited in terms of quantity. TrendForce believes sellers will resume quoting very soon, and prices will shift down again as before. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.93% from US$1.927 last week to US$1.945 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Suppliers are carrying on with their increase of contract prices for the mainstream 512Gb wafers by more than US$4, though inquiries have been sluggish as distributors are currently holding onto an excessive level of low-cost inventory, and that end market demand has also yet to resuscitate. TrendForce noticed that a number of suppliers are truncating with prices that are slightly below that of contract prices for March, which are generating some sort of pricing pressure. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have risen by 0.03% this week, arriving at US$3.765.

Apple currently uses TSMC’s 3-nanometer process for multiple chipsets. According to a report from wccftech, the iPhone 17 chipset will not adopt the 2-nanometer process. Instead, the A19 Pro chip, expected in 2025, is reportedly maintaining the 3-nanometer technology.

The same report suggests that the Apple A19 Pro chip is considering TSMC’s N3P process and may be featured in the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max. TSMC aims to ramp up its 3-nanometer wafer capacity to 100,000 units by the end of 2024.

TSMC began trial production of 2-nanometer chips as early as June 2023. However, Apple’s A18 Pro chip for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max might use the N3E process. As for next year’s iPhone 17, its A19 Pro chip is likely to adopt TSMC’s N3P technology.

As per MoneyDJ’s report, it is currently expected that Apple’s iPhone 18 series, slated for release in 2026, will feature the first-ever 2-nanometer chip. Besides Apple, other 2-nanometer customers include Intel, with interest also anticipated from AMD, NVIDIA, and MediaTek. Looking at the process roadmap, this year’s iPhone 16 will use N3E, while next year’s model will adopt N3P. Thus, the first consumer product leveraging TSMC’s 2nm process is anticipated to launch in 2026.

Meanwhile, Apple is said to be striving to stay ahead of competitors and exploring alternative packaging technologies like 3DFabric with its foundry partner. A rumor from the account Yeux1122 has suggested that Apple is already delving into SoIC (Small Outline Integrated Circuit) packaging.

According to a report from South Korean media The Chosun Daily, Samsung Electronics is set to increase wafer input by approximately 30% this quarter at its NAND Flash production lines in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, and Xi’an, China. However, Samsung remains cautious about further production increases to avoid impacting NAND Flash price trends.

The report indicates that while Samsung’s NAND Flash production lines can exceed 2 million wafers in a quarter at full capacity, internal targets for wafer output in the second to fourth quarters are capped at 1.2 million wafers each, maintaining overall utilization rate at around 50%.

Market expectations cited in the same report suggest that Samsung Electronics will reaffirm its stance on reducing NAND Flash production during the first quarter earnings call later this month. In the previous earnings call, Samsung noted persistent high levels of NAND Flash inventory among major customers, necessitating continued aggressive production cuts.

The same report further indicates that SK hynix has set a quarterly cap of around 600,000 wafers for NAND Flash production, with overall utilization rate ranging between 50% and 60%.

As per TrendForce’s data, it has projected a strong 13–18% increase in Q2 NAND Flash contract prices, with enterprise SSDs expected to rise highest. Despite Kioxia and WDC boosting their production capacity utilization rates from Q1 this year, other suppliers have kept their production strategies conservative. The slight dip in Q2 NAND Flash purchasing—compared to Q1—does not detract from the overall market’s momentum, which continues to be influenced by decreasing supplier inventories and the impact of production cuts.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

Driven by AI-driven demand for optical communication and ASICs, Marvell, a major network IC design company, is accelerating its AI-related business. According to a report from Commercial Times, the revenue from this segment is expected to grow from USD 200 million in fiscal year 2023 to USD 550 million in fiscal year 2024.

Marvell previously announced plans to utilize TSMC’s process technology to produce a 2-nanometer chip optimized for accelerating infrastructure. Reports suggest that TSMC will be a primary beneficiary of Marvell’s chip fabrication business.

“The 2nm platform will enable Marvell to deliver highly differentiated analog, mixed-signal, and foundational IP to build accelerated infrastructure capable of delivering on the promise of AI. Our partnership with TSMC on our 5nm, 3nm and now 2nm platforms has been instrumental in helping Marvell expand the boundaries of what can be achieved in silicon,” said Sandeep Bharathi, chief development officer at Marvell, in Marvell’s previous press release.

In addition, Marvell holds a high market share in the global optical communication digital signal processor (DSP) field. Marvell pointed out that AI has accelerated the rate of transmission speed upgrades, reducing the doubling cycle from 4 years to 2 years, thereby driving rapid growth in the company’s performance.

During Marvell AI Day, company management expressed optimism about its AI business outlook and shared the positive news of receiving AI chip orders from large technology companies. At the time, industry sources have speculated that this customer could be Microsoft.

Marvell CEO Matt Murphy revealed that the company has acquired its third AI hyperscale customer and is developing an AI accelerator slated for production in 2026. These orders encompass customized AI training accelerators and AI inference accelerators for Customer A, a customized Arm architecture CPU for Customer B, and a new customized AI accelerator for Customer C.

Marvell indicates that the AI training accelerators for Customer A and the Arm architecture CPU for Customer B are currently in the ramp-up phase for production. The AI inference accelerator for Customer A and the AI accelerator for Customer C are scheduled for production in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The report cites sources indicating that Marvell’s customer B is Google, and the Arm-based CPU in question is the recently unveiled Google Axion. However, Marvell has not responded to this information.

Marvell highlighted advancements in chip technology, including advanced packaging techniques that integrate multiple chips.

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• [News] The Imminent Arrival of 2-Nanometer Advanced Process
• [News]The 2nm Semiconductor Foundry Race Between TSMC, Samsung, Rapidus Begins with an Equipment Battle

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Amid the memory market’s gradual recovery, memory manufacturers are aggressively increasing prices back to pre-reduction levels and achieve profitability. According to a report from TechNews, however, module suppliers are reportedly resisting these price hikes and considering ways to negotiate with manufacturers, potentially through non-purchasing actions.

With the continued growth in demand for AI and high-performance computing, memory prices are on the rise. According to TrendForce, Kioxia and WDC have increased capacity utilization since Q1 2024, while others maintain low production strategies. Although NAND Flash procurement slightly decreased in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, the overall market sentiment continues to be influenced by reduced supplier inventory and production cut effects. As a result, NAND Flash contract prices for the second quarter are expected to see a strong increase of approximately 13-18%.

Apart from NAND Flash, in the realm of DRAM, although suppliers’ inventories have decreased, they have not yet returned to healthy levels. Moreover, in the context of improving losses, suppliers are increasing capacity utilization.

However, due to unfavorable overall demand prospects for 2024 and significant price hikes by suppliers since the fourth quarter of 2023, the momentum for inventory replenishment is expected to weaken gradually. Therefore, TrendForce predicts that the second-quarter contract price increase for DRAM will converge to 3% to 8%.

Despite the continuous rise in memory prices driven by applications in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data centers, demand in the consumer market remains subdued. Manufacturers persist in strong pricing strategies, prompting backlash from module suppliers.

Additionally, it is reported that Micron is preparing to increase second-quarter quotes by over 25%, which is putting pressure on module suppliers and potentially leading to a standoff with manufacturers.

On the other hand, module suppliers are showing a lukewarm response to the price increases and are particularly hesitant to accept price increases themselves.

However, with the three major memory manufacturers facing constraints on adding new capacity in the short term, whether module suppliers will be forced to accept significant price increases remains to be seen.

Read more

• [News] Micron Expects 4-6% Quarterly DRAM Supply Impact Post Taiwan Earthquake
• [Insights] The Spot Price of DRAM Continues to Decline, Weak Trading Volume for NAND Flash