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2024-08-30

[News] US Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 3% as Initial Jobless Claims Slightly Declined

 

 

Summary: 

  • Q2 real GDP revised up to 3.0%
  • Initial jobless claims last week fell by 2,000 to 231,000
  • Continuing claims last week rose by 13,000 to 1,868,000

 

The U.S. initial jobless claims slightly declined last week, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 29. The Initial claims was 231,000, down by 2,000 from the revised figure of the previous week, outperforming market expectations of 232,000. The four-week moving average was 231,500, down by 4,750 from the previous week’s revised figure. Meanwhile, continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1,868,000.

At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis also released the second estimate for Q2 Real GDP, revising the annual growth rate up to 3.0%, an increase of 0.2% from the preliminary estimate. The core PCE inflation rate was revised down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.1% from the preliminary estimate. Overall, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with inflation remaining on a downward trend.

During last week’s Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, the Federal Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the risks of rising inflation are continuing to diminish and that there is sufficient reason to believe inflation will return to 2%.

Meanwhile, the downside risks to the labor market are gradually increasing. Although the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, it has risen back to 2023 levels. This increase is primarily due to higher labor supply and job vacancies rather than widespread layoffs. However, the Fed do not welcome any further cooling of the labor market.

Finally, Powell clearly stated that the time for policy adjustments has arrived. Although he did not reveal specific plans for rate cuts, insights can be gained from the September release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), where adjustments to the dot plot will indicate the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts by the Fed. Currently, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 3 to 4 quarter-points throughout 2024 (1 quarter-point in September, 1 to 2 quarter-points in November, and 1 quarter-point in December).

2024-08-30

[News] ASML Might Not Be Able to Provide Advanced Chipmaking Maintenance Services to China as Early as 2025

Earlier in July, former ASML CEO Peter Wennick stated that the chip war between the U.S. and China may continue for quite a long time, even for decades. Now his prophecy seems to come true, as the Netherlands is said to ban the semiconductor equipment giant from conducting equipment maintenance and providing related backup components in China, according to the latest report by Bloomberg.

As the targets of the measure reportedly includes ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, if implemented, the move would be a heavy blow to China’s semiconductor industry, especially on the development of advanced nodes, the report notes.

On the other hand, regarding ASML’s sales in lithography units in the second quarter of 2024, China emerged as the largest market, as it contributed 49% of the revenue, higher than South Korea’s 28% and Taiwan’s 11%. Therefore, the reported restriction will be a major setback for the company’s financial performance.

The report from Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicates that the government led by Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof is unlikely to renew some of ASML’s licenses for maintenance and the provision of backup components in China, which are set to expire at the end of 2024. These licenses include those related to ASML’s sale of DUV lithography equipment.

The report further suggests that ASML’s products are usually sold with maintenance agreements, which are crucial for the equipment to operate properly and continuously. Therefore, if ASML’s licenses for maintenance and the provision of backup components to China are no longer granted, some equipment may be unable to function properly as early as 2025.

In response to the rumors, both ASML and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs have declined to comment, Bloomberg notes.

In terms of the reason behind the move, the report states that the decision may be made after the Dutch government received pressure from the U.S. Citing a senior official from the Biden administration, if the super power’s allied countries do not agree to align with Washington on semiconductor controls against China, the U.S. government could propose certain unilateral measures against partner countries, including the use of the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR).

The measure allows the U.S. to control transactions involving foreign products that use U.S. technology, thus is considered to be a tactic leveraged to push its allies, including the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea, to impose restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China.

According to a previous report by Reuters, since 2019, ASML has been prohibited from selling its most advanced EUV tool line in China as part of a U.S.-led effort to curb Beijing’s technological and military progress. Afterwards, China had to rely on ASML’s DUV lithography machines to advance in its semiconductor manufacturing technology.

As per a report by Wccftech in May, SMIC seems to be able to use ASML’s old DUV lithography machines to manufacture 5nm chips for Huawei. Therefore, if ASML stops servicing and supplying parts for DUV machines in China in the future, companies like Huawei and its foundry partner SMIC will find it increasingly difficult to make breakthroughs with their existing capabilities.

The latest report by Bloomberg emphasized that ASML’s CFO, Roger Dassen, confirmed in a July earnings call that the company still has employees in the fabs of Chinese customers. Therefore, if the maintenance ban is implemented, ASML will have to withdraw the employees who provide equipment services to Chinese semiconductor companies.

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(Photo credit: ASML)

Please note that this article cites information from BloombergReuters and Wccftech.
2024-08-30

[News] Instead of Rely Solely on NVIDIA, China’s EV Makers Turn Focus to In-house Chips amid US-China Tensions

The electric car market in China has been facing intense competition, with Xiaomi revealed that it suffered a USD 9200 loss per vehicle from April to June. However, the price war is not the only battleground, as the focus now seems to be turned to another front.

According to a report by CNBC, chip-powered tech features, such as the driver assist function, have gradually become the latest trend, while the development of in-house chips emerges as the possible match point for China’s EV makers. The reason behind: the need for customization and a must to reduce reliance on cutting-edge AI chips amid US- China tensions.

Until now, many leading Chinese EV manufacturers have relied on NVIDIA’s chips, with the AI heavyweight’s automotive chip business generating over USD 300 million in quarterly revenue in recent years, CNBC notes.

However, Chinese electric car start-ups Nio and Xpeng both announced progress on their self-developed chips lately, signaling the beginning of a new era in which in-house chips may become the mainstream for the industry.

In late July, Nio announced that it had taped-out its self-developed intelligent driving chip, Shenji NX9031, which is manufactured with 5nm node. The chip is said to be integrated into the company’s ET9 model, which is scheduled for delivery in 2025.

Citing industrial specialists, CNBC states that the move marks the first time that 5nm has been used in the Chinese automotive industry. For now, 3nm node is primarily utilized in smartphones, personal computers, and artificial intelligence-related applications.

On the other hand, another China’s EV start-up, XPeng Motors, announced in late August that its first AI chip, Turing, has been successfully taped-out. It is worth noting that XPeng has a strong relationship with NVIDIA, and Xpeng’s former head of autonomous driving joined Nvidia last year, CNBC reports.

In 2019, Tesla has reportedly moved away from using NVIDIA’s chips to developing its own, with a focus on advanced driver-assist functions. Citing an industrial specialist, CNBC suggests that Tesla and Chinese EV startups are expected to compete by designing their own chips, while traditional automakers will likely continue to depend on NVIDIA and Qualcomm for the foreseeable future.

The report does not anticipate a significant impact on NVIDIA in the short term, as Chinese automakers are expected to test new technology in small batches within the high-end segment of the market.

Anyhow, the reason behind the wave of self-developing chips for Chinese EV makers may be that it would be difficult for a company to differentiate itself if it uses the same silicon to power its infotainment and intelligent driving systems. By designing their own chips, Chinese automakers can customize features and mitigate supply chain risks associated with geopolitical tensions.

According to the report, U.S. restrictions on NVIDIA’s chip sales to China have not directly impacted automakers, as their vehicles have not yet required the most advanced semiconductor technology.

However, with a growing emphasis on driver-assist functions, which depends heavily on artificial intelligence—a key area in the U.S.-China tech rivalry—Chinese automakers are now turning to in-house technology.

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(Photo credit: Nio)

Please note that this article cites information from CNBC.
2024-08-30

[News] SK hynix Announces First 1c DDR5, Set for Shipment Next Year

As per its official release, SK hynix has announced that it has developed the industry’s first 16Gb DDR5 built using its 1c node, the sixth generation of the 10nm process. Reportedly, it will be ready for mass production of the 1c DDR5 within the year to start volume shipment next year.

To reduce potential errors stemming from the procedure of advancing the process and transfer the advantage of the 1b, the company claims in the release that it extended the platform of the 1b DRAM for development of 1c.

As per the press release, the operating speed of the 1c DDR5, expected to be adopted for high-performance data centers, is improved by 11% from the previous generation, to 8Gbps.

With power efficiency also improved by more than 9%, SK hynix expects adoption of 1c DRAM to help data centers reduce the electricity cost by as much as 30% at a time when advancement of AI era is leading to an increase in power consumption.

Per a report from Businesskorea, the difficulty of advancing the shrinking process for 10nm-range DRAM technology has increased with each generation.

However, with the official release this time, SK hynix has become the first in the industry to overcome these technological limitations by achieving a higher level of design completion.

Per another report from Korea JooAng Daily, this marks a win for SK hynix, as its rival Samsung Electronics had previously outpaced it in the development of the 1b DRAM, which corresponds to nodes in the 12-nanometer range.

2024-08-29

[News] Supermicro Faces Order Withdrawal Crisis, Potentially Benefiting Dell

Supermicro Computer has reportedly been targeted by short-sellers and questioned over alleged accounting manipulations, leading to a delay in filing its 2024 10-K annual report and causing market unease.

On August 27, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling company known for targeting major entities like India’s Adani, Nikola, Lordstown, and fintech giant Block, released a report accusing Supermicro of accounting violations, inadequate disclosure of related party transactions, and evading sanctions by selling products to Russia.

At the moment following the release of Hindenburg’s report, Supermicro also announced a delay in submitting its 2024 fiscal year 10-K annual report, citing the need for more time to assess the design of internal controls and operational effectiveness. This move has further heightened market concerns about Supermicro.

Moreover, Hindenburg also raised concerns about the quality of Supermicro’s products and services, suggesting that competitors like Dell might capitalize on Supermicro’s lost orders.

According to a report from Barron’s citing Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani’s report, it’s highlighted that Supermicro is facing a risk of customer order withdrawals.

Supermicro, on the other hand, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the delay in filing the annual report.

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(Photo credit: Supermicro)

Please note that this article cites information from Barron’s and Hindenburg Research.

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