Ahead of SK hynix’s Q3 earnings announcement on October 24^th, the market expects it may see a surge in quarterly operating profit driven by HBM, potentially leading the company to outperform Samsung’s semiconductor division. Therefore, there is growing interest in SK hynix’s next move.

In order to maintain its leadership in the memory sector amid heated competition from China, SK hynix is reportedly shifting its focus to high-value technologies such as HBM4 and Compute Express Link (CXL), according to Korean media outlet Pinpoint News and Tom’s Hardware.

This shift is motivated by a highly competitive memory market, where Chinese firms are ramping up their production capabilities and adopting aggressive pricing strategies to gain share, Tom’s Hardware notes.

For instance, a previous report by ZDNet mentions that Chinese memory manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) are aggressively expanding production, which could negatively affect profitability in the traditional DRAM market. Established in 2016, CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer with government backing.

Both Samsung and SK hynix are said to be closely monitoring these developments, and counting on high-valued technologies like HBM4 and CXL to unlock a new wave of growth momentum.

It is worth noting that both memory giants have teamed up with TSMC on HBM4, as they attempt to incorporate customized features requested by major clients, counting on TSMC to manufacture more powerful logic dies, the component that functions as the brain of an HBM chip.

Per SK hynix’s product roadmap, the company plans to launch 12-layer stacked HBM4 in the second half of 2025 and 16-layer in 2026.

Samsung, which is struggling with the 12-Hi HBM3e verification with NVIDIA, also aims high for HBM4 to turn the tide. A previous report by The Elec indicates that Samsung targets to tape out HBM4 by year-end, while eyeing the mass production by the end of 2025.

On the other hand, CXL is a next-generation interface that efficiently connects CPUs, GPUs, and memory in high-performance computing systems. According to Pinpoint News, by applying CXL to existing memory modules, capacities can be expanded by more than ten times, makes it extremely suited for the demand of the AI era.

SK hynix is also focusing on CXL memory, which is gaining attention as the next-generation AI memory following HBM. Citing SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung’s remarks, a report by ZDNet suggests that the memory giant plans to launch products like CXL and LPCAMM tailored to customers’ needs, as the results will begin to materialize around next year.

In the meantime, Samsung reportedly aims to begin mass production of a 256GB CMM-D, compatible with the CXL 2.0 protocol, by the end of 2024, according to Tom’s Hardware. In its own words, Samsung’s CMM-D is a memory expander built with next-generation CXL technology, which seamlessly connects multiple processors and devices, increasing memory capacity thus optimizing memory management.

Read more

• [News] Samsung’s Next Move? Early HBM4 Mass-production and 2nm Foundry Solutions Could Be the Cure
• [News] SK hynix Reportedly to Tape-out HBM4 in October, Paving the Way for NVIDIA’s Rubin

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, spot prices for DDR5 products have finally stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes. As for NAND flash, the story seems to be different as the wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Regarding DDR5 products, spot prices have stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes, and there have also been occasional small price hikes in spot transactions. As for DDR4 products, spot prices show signs of stabilization but have experienced the same kind of increase as DDR5. Overall, demand remains weak for consumer products, suggesting further price drops are possible. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 0.31% from US$1.911 last week to US$1.905 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The reduction of inventory has become the priority for the spot market that is currently experiencing sluggishness in demand and purchase sentiment, seeing how truncations have been frequently happening among retail and channel markets, where several module houses of a larger scale are even selling their client SSD at a loss just to get rid of existing inventory. This wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Spot market prices are thus expected to remain on the downward trajectory. 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.08% this week, arriving at US$2.493.

Arm Holdings Plc is terminating its architectural license agreement with Qualcomm Inc., which permitted Qualcomm to use Arm’s intellectual property for chip design, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

According to the report, Arm has issued a mandatory 60-day notice to Qualcomm regarding the cancellation of the licensing agreement. This contract previously enabled Qualcomm to develop its own chips based on Arm’s proprietary standards.

Arm declined to comment on the situation, while Qualcomm did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters outside of regular business hours.

This announcement coincides with an ongoing legal battle between the two tech companies, which is slated to begin in federal court in Delaware this December.

The British firm, majority-owned by Japan’s SoftBank Group, filed a lawsuit against Qualcomm in 2022 for allegedly failing to negotiate a new licensing agreement after acquiring a new company.

The lawsuit centers on technology acquired by Qualcomm from Nuvia, a startup founded by former Apple chip engineers, which Qualcomm purchased for $1.4 billion in 2021. Qualcomm aimed to leverage Nuvia’s technology to compete with Apple by developing chips that could rival the Apple M-series processors and challenge the desktop market dominated by Intel and AMD.

While the acquisition was initially seen as routine, Arm claims that Qualcomm’s use of Nuvia’s designs violates the licensing agreement. The licenses granted to Nuvia were specifically intended for a startup and could not be directly used by Qualcomm without Arm’s approval.

Arm has previously emphasized that, ‘Arm is filing this claim to protect Arm, our partners, and the unparalleled ecosystem we have built together. Arm and its partners have invested billions of dollars to create industry-leading intellectual property. Because Qualcomm attempted to transfer Nuvia licenses without Arm’s consent, which is a standard restriction under Arm’s license agreements, Nuvia’s licenses were terminated in March 2022. Before and after that date, Arm made multiple good faith efforts to seek a resolution. In contrast, Qualcomm has breached the terms of the Arm license agreement by continuing development under the terminated licenses. Arm was left with no choice but to bring this claim against Qualcomm and Nuvia to protect our IP, our business, and to ensure customers are able to access valid Arm-based products.’

(Photo credit: Arm)

China’s youth unemployment rate decreased in September, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on October 22. The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds, excluding students, stood at 17.6%, down from 18.8% in the previous month, but it remains at a relatively high level.

Read more at Datatrack

It is worth noting that after the youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group reached a historic high in June 2023, Chinese authorities temporarily halted the release of this data and revised the statistical method to exclude students. However, this adjustment has raised concerns in the market regarding the credibility of the data.

Before the release of this unemployment figure, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter, slightly higher than market expectations but marking the lowest growth rate in the past six months.

Read more at Datatrack

Amid a prolonged period of economic weakness, the Chinese government finally introduced a significant and detailed monetary easing policy in September, followed by policies in October aimed at boosting economic growth and stabilizing the real estate market. The market is now closely watching to see if these policies will effectively revive the Chinese economy.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October report, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, with the 2025 forecast being revised down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the July forecast.

United States

Breaking it down by major economies, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the July estimate, driven by strong consumption and non-residential investment. In 2025, as fiscal policy tightens and the labor market cools, leading to weaker consumption, growth is expected to slow to 2.2%, though this remains 0.3 percentage points higher than the July forecast.

Euro area

In the euro area, economic growth is expected to slightly rebound to 0.8% in 2024 due to improved exports. In 2025, growth is forecast to rise further to 1.2%, driven by real wage increases and gradually easing policies. However, these forecasts have been revised down by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the July estimates, primarily reflecting weakness in Italy and Germany’s manufacturing sectors.

China

In Asia, China’s economic growth is forecast to slow to 4.8% in 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, due to weaker consumer demand amid real estate sector challenges. However, strong export performance is offering some support. For 2025, China’s growth is expected to slow further to 4.5%, in line with the July forecast.

Japan

Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2024, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to the July forecast, reflecting supply chain disruptions caused by data falsification in the automotive sector. However, with rising real wages expected to drive consumption, growth is forecast to rebound to 1.1% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast.

The IMF also noted that downside risks to the global economic outlook are more pronounced compared to the July report. These risks include the possibility of tighter-than-expected monetary policies, increased financial market volatility, rising commodity prices due to geopolitical tensions, a deeper downturn in China’s real estate sector, and an increase in trade protectionism.

(Source: IMF, TrendForce)