As AI demand continues to surge, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has initiated an extensive expansion plan for its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) production. Within the industry, reports suggest that TSMC, a leading semiconductor foundry, placed a significant wave of orders with Taiwanese equipment manufacturers last week, creating a notable impact.

Additionally, outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (OSAT) giants, which were originally inquiring about orders, have also significantly increased their orders for advanced packaging. This wave of orders is estimated to be fulfilled between March and April of the upcoming year.

The growth in demand for advanced semiconductor processes due to AI applications necessitates advanced packaging technologies to keep pace. With packaging technologies advancing from 2D and 2.5D to the more advanced 3D IC (Integrated Circuit) configurations, the number of IC stacking layers is increasing, leading to a greater demand for advanced packaging equipment. Considering the current emphasis on CoWoS technology, the industry estimates that production capacity will reach 12,000 to 14,000 wafers in 2023 and double to over 30,000 wafers in 2024.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, information from equipment industry sources reveals that TSMC recommenced orders for CoWoS equipment in April 2023, with a second wave of orders in June. Subsequently, sporadic additional orders were placed, and last week witnessed a new significant wave of orders, surprising many.

An anonymous executive from a Taiwanese equipment company expressed that they initially believed TSMC’s orders for CoWoS equipment had concluded, making the recent wave of orders even more unexpected. Furthermore, the increase in orders for advanced packaging equipment by semiconductor testing and packaging facilities is also seen as encouraging.

Market experts believe that semiconductor testing and packaging facilities and semiconductor foundries have different positions and advantages in the advanced packaging market. Their cooperative relationships outweigh their competition. Major OSAT players like ASE, Amkor, and JCET have long possessed advanced packaging technology and are positioned to become an alternative choice for major foundries due to their technical upgrades and competitive pricing. In other words, top-tier orders from customers will be firmly in TSMC’s grasp, while other opportunities will likely be pursued by SATS companies.

Regarding the supply of CoWoS equipment, suppliers like Scientech have received over 30 orders for wet etching processing equipment, while Grand Process Technology and others have shipped nearly 20 units. Meanwhile, G2C+ Alliance members such as GMM and C Sun have reportedly received over 40 orders from the TSMC’s Longtan factory.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Amidst the AI boom, HBM technology steps into the spotlight as market demand continues to surge. Global market research firm TrendForce anticipates a 58% year-on-year increase in HBM demand in 2023, with a potential additional growth of approximately 30% in 2024.

Compared to traditional DRAM, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) boasts advantages such as high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption. These attributes accelerate AI data processing and make it particularly well-suited for high-performance computing scenarios like ChatGPT. As a result, it has gained popularity, and major storage manufacturers are actively driving HBM technology upgrades.

Leading memory manufacturers are intensifying their efforts, with Samsung set to introduce HBM4.

Since the inception of the first HBM products utilizing TSV packaging technology in 2014, HBM technology has seen multiple upgrades, including HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3, and HBM3e.

Regarding the SK Hynix and Samsung, two major South Korean companies, have been at the forefront of HBM3 development. NVIDIA’s H100/H800 and AMD’s MI300 series, represent HBM3’s progress. Both SK Hynix and Samsung expected to offer HBM3e samples by the first quarter of 2024. On the other hand, Micron, a U.S.-based memory company, is bypassing HBM3 and directly pursuing HBM3e.

HBM3e will feature 24Gb mono die stacks, and with an 8-layer (8Hi) configuration, a single HBM3e chip’s capacity will soar to 24GB. This advancement is expected to be incorporated into NVIDIA’s GB100 in 2025, leading the three major OEMs to plan HBM3e sample releases in the first quarter of 2024 and enter mass production in the latter half of the year.

In addition to HBM3 and HBM3e, the latest updates indicate that storage giants are planning the launch of the next generation of HBM—HBM4.

Samsung recently announced that it has developed 9.8Gbps HBM3E and is planning to provide samples to customers. Furthermore, Samsung is actively working on HBM4 with a goal to begin supply in 2025. It’s reported that Samsung Electronics is developing technologies such as non-conductive adhesive film (NCF) assembly for optimizing high-temperature thermal characteristics, as well as hybrid bonding (HCB), for HBM4 products.

In September, Korean media reported that Samsung is gearing up to revamp its production process and launch HBM4 products to capture the rapidly growing HBM market. HBM4 memory stacks will feature a 2048-bit memory interface, a significant departure from the previous 1024-bit interface for all HBM stacks. This enhanced interface width holds great significance for the evolution of HBM4.

While HBM4 promises a major breakthrough, it is still a ways off, making it too early to discuss its practical applications and widespread adoption. Industry experts emphasize that the current HBM market is dominated by HBM2e. However, HBM3 and HBM3e are poised to take the lead in the near future.

According to TrendForce’s research, HBM2e currently accounts for the mainstream market share, being used in various products like NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and many AI accelerators developed by CSPs. To keep pace with the evolving demands of AI accelerator chips, OEMs are planning to introduce new HBM3e products in 2024, with HBM3 and HBM3e expected to become the market’s primary players next year.

In terms of the demand transition between different HBM generations, TrendForce estimates that in 2023, mainstream demand will shift from HBM2e to HBM3, with estimated demand shares of approximately 50% and 39%, respectively. As more HBM3-based accelerator chips enter the market, demand will substantially shift toward HBM3 in 2024, surpassing HBM2e and accounting for an estimated 60% of the market. This transition, coupled with higher average selling prices (ASP), is poised to significantly drive HBM revenue growth next year.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

On September 20, 2023, France unveiled new incentives for purchasing electric vehicles, offering cash subsidies ranging from €5,000 to €7,000 for qualifying models. The subsidy criteria now take into account the carbon footprint during both the electric vehicle and battery manufacturing processes.

Given that China’s electric vehicle production relies more on coal-fired power generation, there’s a strong possibility that Chinese-made electric cars may not qualify for these subsidies. The French government plans to announce the list of eligible models in December 2023.

TrendForce’s point:
…

TrendForce reports that the second quarter revealed notebook inventory channels displaying healthy levels. Both North America and Asia-Pacific regions are demonstrating a healthy appetite for mid and low-tier consumer models. This isn’t just a race to restock; it’s a strategic move to gear up for the anticipated back-to-school wave in the third quarter. And here’s the zinger—just as Google prepped to roll out its licensing fees, Chromebook shipments hit a peak. This surge propelled Q2 notebook shipments to 42.52 million units, marking a 21.6% quarterly leap. However, a look at the overall picture reveals a total of 77.5 million units shipped in the first half of the year—down 23.5% YoY.

TrendForce further points out that for 2H23, growth momentum is anchored in the purchasing power of end consumers. However, with the economic outlook of the two major notebook markets—the US and Europe—shrouded in uncertainty, the typical seasonal purchasing demand is muted. What’s more, some of this demand was already met in Q2. As a result, Q3 notebook shipments are forecast to witness a moderate growth of 3.8%, tallying up to 44.13 million units. Annual notebook shipments are projected to hit 163 million units, marking a YoY decline of 12.2%.

Gearing up for 2024, the tech horizon looks promising. As market inventories align with healthier metrics and anticipated inflationary pressures begin to stabilize, global notebook shipments are poised for a potential rebound. Yet, it’s not all roses. With the global consumer environment still feeling the pinch, even as demand gradually ticks up, the market hasn’t flashed strong bullish signs just yet. TrendForce projects an annual growth rate hovering between 2–5% for 2024, pushing shipments slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Post inventory adjustments, the broader market is set for a gentle recovery. However, all eyes remain on the twin giants of consumer markets—China and the US—to gauge if we can indeed anticipate a more robust shipment surge.

In the latter half of the year, the absence of seasonal market activity paired with subdued demand has not only impacted corporate profitability but also posed challenges for the upcoming year’s budgeting. Concurrently, the rise of AI and the emphasis on its foundational infrastructure might sideline IT expenditures. While Windows 10 is set to end its support in October 2025, it’s anticipated to spur a wave of business device upgrades starting in 2024. However, TrendForce believes that based on the demand for commercial notebooks, the momentum and urgency of this upgrade wave might be delayed and subdued, making significant shipment growth less probable.

On the consumer demand front, when examining the world’s economic powerhouses, China faces challenges due to a subdued economic and employment environment, casting a somewhat pessimistic view on its market development. In contrast, the US saw a robust rebound in demand in 2023, but anticipations hint at tempered growth in 2024. Europe, after undergoing a two-year demand recalibration, might witness a consumer resurgence in the latter half, should the broader economic climate brighten. Finally, Southeast Asia, buoyed by a burgeoning consumer segment, forecasts upward-trending shipments, indicating a modest growth in consumer-focused devices.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforce.com

According to data from Tianyancha, a website for querying various information about Chinese companies, Xiaomi Auto, has recently unveiled its “Electric Vehicle Charging and Charging Method” patent.

The patent abstract reveals a charging vehicle and method, featuring a battery compartment for housing batteries, a wireless charging device for wirelessly transferring energy from the batteries to the electric vehicle, and an autonomous driving system. The autonomous driving system guides the charging vehicle to a predetermined relative position in relation to the electric vehicle, enabling wireless energy transmission from the batteries to the electric vehicle.

This disclosure signifies a significant advancement in the automation of electric vehicle charging while simplifying the overall charging process.

It is worth noting that Xiaomi Auto has amassed over 300 authorized patents, with issued more than 700 patents.

Apart from its strides in automotive patents, Xiaomi’s ambitions extend to the broader automotive industry. Tianyancha’s data reveals that Xiaomi has recently established Jingming Technology in Wuhan and Shenzhen, both encompassing automotive sales and services. Xiaomi holds 100% ownership in both companies, each with a registered capital of 10 million RMB.

As per insider information from September, Xiaomi Auto is in the trial production phase, currently producing approximately 50 test vehicles per week. Xiaomi anticipates receiving the approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology by the end of this year, paving the way for full-scale electric vehicle production.

According to Xiaomi’s earlier public plans, the official mass production of Xiaomi vehicles is set for the first half of next year, a timeline that some deem as somewhat delayed. However, at Xiaomi’s Investor Day earlier this year, CEO Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi views the auto industry as a century-long endeavor. He expressed confidence in launching Xiaomi vehicles in 2024 and aspired for Xiaomi Auto to rank among the world’s top five automakers within 15-20 years.

Since Lei Jun’s announcement of Xiaomi’s foray into the automotive sector more than two years ago, the electric vehicle market has witnessed significant changes. Evolving government policies regarding new energy vehicles and increased market competition present formidable challenges to new entrants.

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(Photo credit: Xiaomi)