According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC is aggressively expanding its advanced packaging capacity. Recently, they placed an additional 30% order for equipment with manufacturers, leading to a doubling of order volumes for companies in the interposer supply chain, such as UMC and ASE Group. Moreover, there are rumors of price increases on the horizon.

TSMC, responding to the robust production demands from major clients like NVIDIA, AMD, and Amazon, has not only expanded its CoWoS capacity as originally planned but has also added another 30% in new equipment. This move implies that once TSMC’s new advanced packaging capacity comes online next year, it will represent at least a doubling of the current production capacity.

Given the substantial demand for TSMC’s advanced packaging orders, coupled with the necessity of interposer in CoWoS for stacking logic computing ICs and high-bandwidth memory, there is an expectation of significant growth in interposer orders, likely exceeding a twofold increase compared to this year. Notably, semiconductor giants like UMC and ASE Group have already secured significant orders from TSMC for interposer layers and are currently in the mass production and delivery stages.

It is understood that UMC, after venturing into the advanced packaging market in recent years, has introduced packaging solutions applicable to IoT, automotive chips, and more, spanning from wafer bumping and wire bonding packaging to advanced 2.5D, 3DIC, and wafer-level fan-out packaging solutions. The most notable among them is the 2.5D silicon interposer layer solution, which, through collaboration with UMC and other specialized packaging facilities, has proven pivotal in securing major orders in the interposer layer market, particularly from NVIDIA.

Industry sources suggest that UMC has increased prices for super hot run interposer layer orders and initiated capacity expansion plans to meet customer demands, while ASE Group is also contemplating adjustments to its advanced packaging quotations.

(Photo credit: UMC)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is running at full throttle. As they actively expand their production capabilities, there are reports of major customers like NVIDIA increasing their orders for AI chips. Additionally, industry giants like AMD and Amazon have rushed in with urgent orders.

In response to this urgent situation, TSMC is actively seeking equipment suppliers to expand its CoWoS machine procurement. Beyond TSMC’s existing production expansion goals, the company is further increasing its orders for equipment by an additional 30%, highlighting the ongoing fervor in the AI market.

It is reported that TSMC has sought assistance from equipment manufacturers such as Scientech, Allring, Grand Process Technology, E&R Engineering, and GP Group for this endeavor. They plan to complete the delivery and installation of the equipment by the first half of the coming year. The related equipment manufacturers are experiencing a surge in activity.

Industry sources reveal that TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging monthly production capacity is currently around 12,000 units. With their previous expansion efforts, they aimed to gradually increase this to 15,000 to 20,000 units per month. Now, with the addition of more equipment, they are looking at the possibility of reaching capacities of over 25,000 units per month, potentially even approaching 30,000 units. This substantial increase in production capacity positions TSMC to handle a significantly larger volume of AI-related orders.

Equipment providers have pointed out that NVIDIA is currently TSMC’s largest customer for CoWoS advanced packaging, accounting for 60% of the production capacity. Recently, in response to robust demand in AI computing, NVIDIA has increased its orders. Additionally, urgent orders from other customers such as AMD, Amazon, and Broadcom have started to pour in.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

As costs continue to decline, it is projected that OLED technology will reach a 50% penetration rate in the smartphone market by 2023. Additionally, OLED is gradually making inroads into applications such as TVs, laptops, and tablets. According to TrendForce analysis, the current landscape of OLED technology presents various opportunities and challenges depending on the application. In the realm of smartphones, the number of OLED smartphone products is on the rise, and the technology is taking on diverse forms, including rigid OLED screens, OLED curved displays, and OLED foldable displays.

TrendForce predicts that by 2023, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones will reach 1.6%, with sales volume increasing from 12.8 million units in 2022 to 18.26 million units. With advancements in OLED display specifications and increasingly competitive pricing, OLED foldable smartphones are poised to become mainstream in the market. Currently, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones is relatively low, primarily because OLED technology has not fully met user demands for larger screens within the same form factor while maintaining affordability. This marks a significant development trend for foldable smartphones in the future.

In response to the ever-evolving landscape of smartphone screens and high consumer demand, panel makers are taking a multi-faceted approach to upgrading OLED technology. To achieve full-screen displays while ensuring quality in screen visuals and camera functionality, certain brands have begun utilizing hole-punch screens, integrating the camera beneath the display – a prime example being the iPhone 14 Pro series with its Dynamic Island. On the other hand, companies like Samsung, BOE, and CSOT are opting to forego punch holes altogether. Instead, they are enhancing screen transparency and incorporating the camera beneath the display by rearranging specific display area pixels and reducing size.

Panel makers are enhancing OLED technology to improve both lifespan and efficiency. They are adopting LTPO technology to dynamically adjust screen refresh rates, reducing power consumption. Additionally, for foldable screens, companies are eliminating polarizers, using color filters to reduce reflection, and switching to ultra-thin glass cover panels. These optimizations are in response to the varied demands of smartphone applications, and they signal the continued growth of OLED in future smartphone uses.

In the realm of TV, TrendForce thinks that COVID-19, geopolitics, and rising shipping costs, furthermore, companies have been focusing on the development of larger-sized TVs, particularly in the 65, 77, and 85-inch categories, causing the overall decline in the TV market in recent years. The OLED TV market is primarily dominated by Korean manufacturers LG and Samsung. TrendForce projects that in 2023, OLED TVs will account for approximately 2% to 3% of the overall TV market.

TrendForce suggests that Samsung and LG are currently enhancing OLED technology by adopting new materials and incorporating quantum dot technology to improve OLED’s luminous efficiency. This has led to an increase in the cost of OLED technology, which in turn has limited the widespread adoption of OLED TVs. However, with factors such as depreciation of production machinery, improved yield rates for OLED products, and streamlining of the production process, it is expected that OLED TV prices will gradually decrease in the future.

Monitor

In 2023, OLED display shipments are expected to reach approximately 530,000 units, marking a 342% increase by YoY. However, OLED displays are projected to hold only a 2% to 3% market share in the overall display market. Within the OLED display market, LG is poised to surpass Dell and become the brand with the largest market share due to its proactive deployment of OLED product lines and diversified product offerings, along with strong demand for 27-inch products in the market.TrendForce states that the future of OLED displays lies in larger sizes, necessitating the use of higher-generation panel production lines for efficient and cost-effective OLED panel manufacturing.

Notebook, Tablet

In the laptop and tablet arena, as compared to smartphones and televisions, the application of OLED technology has been relatively limited. However, according to TrendForce, OLED technology is beginning to transition into IT-related applications. This includes innovations such as OLED Tandem device structures, as well as recent developments like JDI’s photolithography eLeap and Visionox’s ViP. These advancements are set to significantly enhance OLED performance and lifespan. When these technologies are ready for deployment, they are expected to effectively reduce OLED costs and substantially increase OLED panel penetration in the IT market.

Notably, Apple has already integrated OLED technology into its iPad products, and the Apple brand’s influence is expected to drive other brands to adopt OLED technology, accelerating OLED’s penetration in the IT market.

Automotive display

In the realm of automotive displays and other applications, TrendForce envisions a future for OLED technology characterized by transparency, extended lifespan, and versatility to meet the demands of foldable displays, automotive displays, and transparent displays. In automotive displays, OLED features such as high brightness, wide viewing angles, high contrast, and a broad operating temperature range make it suitable for applications like rear-seat entertainment systems and in-car infotainment displays. In the realm of transparent displays, OLED’s high transmittance and ability to display real-time information make it suitable for use in automotive windshields, windows, and A-pillars. Additionally, in the domain of stretchable displays, flexible OLED screens can be stretched and slid while maintaining a consistent thickness.

The intensifying competition between the United States and China has prompted countries like Australia to cease the use of Chinese drone products due to national security concerns, significantly impacting the Asia-Pacific drone market.

In 2023, the global drone market is estimated to be valued at $33.4 billion, with a growth rate converging at 9.2%. As drone applications and use cases become more defined, drone manufacturing materials become increasingly transparent, costs and prices are expected to rationalize. The core profitability of drone manufacturers is shifting towards drone equipment, such as cameras and sprinklers.

Current State and Market Analysis of the Drone Industry

The commercialization of drones has accelerated, leading to the integration of autonomous drone docks and DaaS (Drones as a Service) technology. This has prompted drone suppliers like DJI, FOIA, GEOAI, AeroVironment, Skydio, and others to develop their own drone ground control systems, cloud-based control systems, onboard AI control systems, and multi-series autonomous flight systems. Autonomous flying control system enable AI-driven real-time image recognition, visual navigation processing, data capture, and analysis, as well as automated flights, deployments, take-offs, and landings.

Furthermore, the matured technologies of AI and computer vision have led to the diversification of drone products, allowing companies in the media and entertainment sectors to replace traditional aircraft with drones for tasks such as aerial photography, cinematography, and capturing special effects, resulting in cost reduction and increased efficiency. On the other hand, road and railway operators are combining drones with 3D modeling software to assist in structural engineering design. The logistics sector is rapidly advancing smart delivery models. Hence, the global drone market, including platform systems, automation applications, and drone docks, reached $30.6 billion in 2022, reflecting a 15% growth compared to 2021.

Although drones have a wide range of application areas, their technology and critical components are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors. The ongoing US-China competition and concerns related to national security have led many countries to discontinue the use of Chinese drone products. Consequently, China, in addition to restricting the export of gallium and germanium for chip manufacturing, announced export controls on certain drones and related equipment starting in September 2023. This decision not only impacts China’s drone industry but also affects its vertical integration, including equipment suppliers for batteries, drone engines, motor controllers, ground stations, and anti-drone systems.

With declining drone sales volume, drone manufacturers are forced to reduce production to control operational costs, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for semiconductor components such as MOSFETs, HMIs, PCBs, sensors, microcontrollers, communication chips (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth), and charging ICs. This has significant implications, particularly for DJI, which holds approximately 70% of the global drone market share, and more than half of drones sold in the United States are either manufactured by DJI or supplied with DJI components.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, Chinese assembly contractor Luxshare Precision has been actively entering Apple’s supply chain in recent years and has secured contracts to manufacture high-end models of the iPhone 15, no longer exclusively produced by Foxconn. Luxshare Precision’s Chairman, Wang Laichun, revealed in a recent interview that they have secured orders for three iPhone 15 models this year, and this business segment has doubled in performance over the past year.

She also disclosed that they are preparing for the production of Apple’s upcoming head-worn device, the Apple Vision Pro, set to be released early next year.

As reported by The Paper, Wang Laichun pointed out that Luxshare Precision currently provides development and manufacturing services for a range of Apple products, including iPhones, Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro. They offer an integrated solution, from diverse components and modules to complete system assembly.

Luxshare Precision’s semi-annual report for 2023, released at the end of August, showed that their sales for the first half of the year reached RMB 97.97 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.53%. Their net profit was RMB 4.154 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.48%. Not only did they achieve record cash flow, but several financial indicators also improved. Luxshare Precision expects its net profit for the first three quarters of 2023 to reach between RMB 7.040 billion and RMB 7.680 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% to 20%.

The report noted that Wang Laichun attributes this growth to the company’s process optimization and efficiency improvements, which have led to a significant increase in the number of iPhone production models and quantities in recent years. She also mentioned that the company continues to expand its capacity in China to meet Apple’s demands. Last year, they established a new facility in Kunshan dedicated to iPhone development and production, creating tens of thousands of job opportunities.

(Photo credit: Apple)