The global laptop and PC market is gradually recovering, coupled with the rising trend of AIPC. Laptop brands, including Acer and ASUS, as well as major contract manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta, have all released positive outlooks for 2024.

Semiconductor giants such as Intel, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and others actively entered the AI PC chip market in the second half of 2023, positioning themselves strategically. Both laptop brands and terminal manufacturers have expressed expectations for this development.

Acer

Jason Chen, Chairman and CEO of Taiwan-based computer manufacturer Acer, stated on November 30th that they are currently tallying the sales performance of Acer during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the current results are satisfactory. Looking ahead to the PC industry next year, from an overall economic perspective, there are still many uncertain factors, but it appears to be better than this year.

Chen further pointed out that the impact of the pandemic has passed, inventory digestion has also concluded, and entering the traditional seasonal performance, the specific application of generative AI will bring a new wave of demand stimulation.

Regarding AI PCs, Chen emphasized that the transition to AI PCs will be a gradual process rather than a sudden occurrence. He anticipates this transformation will take place in both commercial and consumer markets in the future.

ASUS 

According to UDN’s report, ASUS, another major Taiwanese laptop manufacturer, emphasized the significance of AI PCs during its November investor conference. Co-CEO, S.Y. Hsu, highlighted that AI PCs represent a crucial turning point for the industry, promising a significant improvement in user experience and ushering in a new era for the PC industry.

While he acknowledged that consumer acceptance of AI PCs would take time to increase, he predicted that the penetration rate of AI PCs would reach single digits in 2024 and double digits in 2025, depending on the user experience and technological maturity of AI PCs next year.

Foxconn

For Taiwanese electronics contract manufacturer Foxconn, the outlook for the PC industry in the coming year is described as “very good” by Chiang Chih-Hsiung, General Manager of the B Group and Digital Health at Foxconn.

This indicates Foxconn’s positive expectations for performance in the PC-related industry. Foxconn had previously emphasized that, in addition to AI servers, it would collaborate with customers to expand its presence in the AI PC sector in 2024.

Quanta

In a public interview on November 30th, Chairman Barry Lam of Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Quanta discussed the overall outlook for the next year, emphasizing the role of generative AI in shaping future technological developments.

With the rapid growth in AI computing power demand, the market conditions for next year are quite optimistic. Lin is particularly bullish on the future prospects of three major products: AI PC, AI servers, and AI automotive electronics, with a special emphasis on the significant growth potential of AI PCs.

Quanta is optimistic about the growth momentum in this sector, especially with Microsoft set to launch the latest Windows featuring AI functions next summer. Quanta envisions continued collaboration with GPT in the future for PCs.

TrendForce’s Insight

TrendForce reports the global shipment of notebooks is expected to reach 167 million units in 2023—a YoY decrease of 10.2%. However, with inventory pressures easing, the notebook market is anticipated to return to a balanced supply and demand cycle in 2024. Overall shipment volume is forecast to reach 172 million units, marking a YoY increase of 3.2%.

As for AI PC, TrendForce believes that due to the high costs of upgrading both software and hardware, early development will be focused on high-end business users and content creators. This targeted group has a strong demand for leveraging AI processing capabilities to improve productivity efficiency and can also benefit immediately from related applications, making them the first-generation primary users.

The emergence of AI PCs is not expected to necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand. Instead, most upgrades to AI PC devices will occur naturally as part of the business equipment replacement cycle projected for 2024.

Nevertheless, looking to the long term, the potential development of more diverse AI tools—along with a price reduction—may still lead to a higher adoption rate of consumer AI PCs.

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• Key Development Period for AI PCs in 2024; Global Notebook Market Set to Rebound to Healthy Supply-Demand Cycle with an Estimated Growth Rate of 3.2%, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

In November 2023, Quanta, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, has announced a collaboration with the U.S. AR glasses technology provider Vuzix. Through the adoption of Vuzix’s waveguide technology and optical display components, Quanta is set to engage in mass production for smart glasses, with shipments expected to commence in 2024.

The contract manufacturer like Quanta has been strengthening its technical capabilities in the VR and AR domains in recent years, aiming to possess the capacity to provide comprehensive product solutions and seize opportunities in the flourishing virtual market.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Quanta Continues to Explore AR Glasses, Collaboration with Vuzix Aims for Expanded Applications

In recent years, Quanta has actively invested in the AR glasses sector, including collaborative efforts with STMicroelectronics in late 2020 to develop a reference design for AR glasses and a $20 million investment in the Israeli AR startup Lumus in 2021.

The ongoing partnership with Vuzix, planning for complete device shipments, underscores Quanta’s optimistic outlook on the application development and future business opportunities for AR glasses.

Given Quanta’s key product and service areas spanning mobile computing, home entertainment, IoT, and smart manufacturing, the current trend of the metaverse positions VR and AR devices as crucial gateways to enter and add value to these domains.

With Quanta transitioning from a device supplier to a platform service provider and implementing a comprehensive development strategy of hardware-software integration, the continued focus on AR glasses holds the potential to expand profit margins for Quanta.

Vuzix, in collaboration with Quanta, has secured a prominent position in the VR and AR device market through its wearable display technology. Notably, Vuzix has developed the world’s first Micro LED AR glasses and consistently received CES Innovation Awards from 2020 to the present year.

Their product highlights encompass AR technology for swim goggles, the establishment of a comprehensive smart glasses platform featuring microLED and waveguide technologies. The recently unveiled Ultralite S, focused on sports and fitness scenarios, seamlessly integrates with smartphones or smartwatches to display real-time activity data and information on the glasses, earning it the CES 2024 Innovation Award.

With Vuzix possessing critical optical technology and components across a broad product range, the collaboration aligns well with Quanta’s AR transformation, particularly enhancing Quanta’s QOCA telemedicine cloud platform in the medical field. The synergy between the two marks a harmonious and mutually beneficial partnership.

2. Contract Manufacturer Actively Strengthen VR and AR Tech Capabilities Through Collaboration and Investment to Seize Virtual Opportunities

In addition to Quanta, various contract manufacturers have been actively enhancing their technological capabilities in the VR and AR industry through collaborations, mergers, and investments. Notably, Foxconn has been investing in and collaborating with key players in the VR and AR device market since 2022, including XRSPACE, Varjo, and the early part of 2023 with Jorjin.

Looking at other contract manufacturers, GoerTek works with major clients like Meta, Sony, and PICO, Luxshare has Apple Vision Pro assembly orders, and Pegatron has handled products for Microsoft HoloLens and Oculus, while Quanta has been involved with Microsoft Mixed Reality Headset.

Therefore, for Foxconn and other companies aiming to enter this field, adopting more investment and collaboration strategies, or even directly acquiring key tech firms, will be the fastest way to rapidly strengthen their competitive position in the VR and AR market.

Looking at the overall supply chain of the VR and AR virtual device industry, the efforts of assembly plants to strengthen their technical capabilities go beyond providing assembly outsourcing. To a certain extent, this is also aimed at developing the ability to offer complete product solutions, catering to a broader customer base.

Given that these devices prioritize image precision and real-time capture, high-end products require more components and sensors. Moreover, the non-uniform design of head-mounted devices adds complexity to the assembly of VR and AR devices.

Additionally, not all companies have the resources and industry competitiveness, as in the case of Meta and Sony, to independently develop head-mounted devices from scratch. For many, obtaining a more comprehensive product solution and then making adjustments is a more practical approach. This necessitates contract manufacturers to have enhanced VR and AR technology and ODM capabilities. This way, amidst the flourishing opportunities in the virtual market, they can offer complete head-mounted device solutions.

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• [News] Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Set to Enter Mass Production, Chinese Supply Chain Expected to Contribute 60%

According to TechNews’ report, TSMC and Samsung fiercely compete in the semiconductor foundry sector. Earlier market reports suggested that Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 mobile processor might adopt a dual-foundry strategy with TSMC and Samsung manufacturing simultaneously.

However, according to the latest industry information, due to Samsung’s conservative expansion plan for next year’s 3nm production capacity and unstable yields, Qualcomm has officially canceled the plan to utilize Samsung for next year’s processors. The dual-sourcing model is now postponed until 2025.

Samsung began mass production of its first-generation 3nm GAA (SF3E) process at the end of June last year, marking Samsung’s initial use of the innovative GAA architecture for transistor technology. The second-generation 3nm process, 3GAP (SF3), will utilize the second-generation MBCFET architecture, optimizing it based on the foundation of the first-generation 3nm SF3E. It is expected to enter mass production in 2024.

The dual-foundry strategy for Qualcomm was initially leaked by the reputable source Revegnus via the X platform (formerly Twitter). It was mentioned that the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 processor would adopt TSMC’s 3nm (N3E) process, while Samsung’s 3GAP process would be used for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 supplying Samsung’s Galaxy series smartphones. Other sources suggested that due to limited capacity at TSMC’s 3nm production, Qualcomm had to seek Samsung as an alternative chip foundry.

As a result, Qualcomm originally anticipated dual-foundry production with both TSMC and Samsung in 2024, with hopes of being the first customer for the 3GAP process. However, considering Samsung’s conservative 3nm production capacity plan for next year and the instability in yields, Qualcomm decided to scrap the plan and exclusively rely on TSMC, pushing the dual-foundry strategy to 2025.

Currently, TSMC’s 3nm process technology capacity is on the rise, with expectations that by the end of 2024, monthly production capacity will reach 100,000 wafers, and the revenue contribution will increase from the current 5% to 10%.

(Photo credit: Qualcomm)

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On November 28, CXMT made a highlight in the Chinese market by unveiling its latest DRAM LPDDR5. It becomes the first company in China to self-develop and manufacture such DRAMs. CXMT said it has already received validation from major Chinese smartphone brands like Xiaomi and Transsion, signaling plans for swift market commercialization.

This launch not only improves the quality and cost-effectiveness of applications in personal and business sectors but also accelerates the industrialization of the Chinese DRAM industry, positioning CXMT at the forefront of the LPDDR5 era.

Latest Developments in CXMT’s LPDDR5 Strategy

The “LP” in LPDDR stands for Low Power, representing a type of Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory (SDRAM) product with lower power consumption compared to DDR. The JEDEC(Solid State Technology Association) categorizes DRAM into three kinds based on different application needs: Standard DDR, LPDDR, and GDDR. DDR is primarily used in servers and PCs, LPDDR in mobile phones and consumer electronics, and GDDR in image processing.

LPDDR5, the fifth generation of low-power double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory, is the latest focus for CXMT. The company officially launched its LPDDR5 series, including 12Gb LPDDR5 chips, 12GB LPDDR5 chips with package on package (PoP) packaging, and 6GB LPDDR5 chips with die stacking chip (DSC) packaging.

CXMT’s LPDDR5 chips incorporate robust RAS (Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability) features, utilizing on-die error correction code (ECC) technology for real-time error correction, minimizing system failures, ensuring data security, and enhancing stability.

International Memory Giants Vying for Market Share

In September 2023, Samsung announced the development of a series of Low-Power Compressed Additional Memory Modules (LPCAMM), utilizing LPDDR5X memory. During the “2023 Investor Forum” held in Hong Kong in November, Samsung revealed plans to prepare new memory solutions for the automotive sector, including the new LPDDR5X.

SK Hynix officially supplied customers with 16GB capacity LPDDR5T (Low Power Double Data Rate 5 Turbo) products in November, marking the fastest mobile DRAM product with a transmission speed of up to 9.6Gbps.

Micron introduced LPDDR5X DRAM in 2022, with its LPDDR5X-9600 utilizing the latest 1β process technology. With a maximum capacity of 16GB, its speed is 12% higher than the previously fastest LPDDR5X-8533.

Promising Future for LPDDR5 Market

From the current DRAM market share perspective, TrendForce’s statistics on industry revenue from the second quarter show that Samsung has a market share of 39.6%, SK Hynix has 30.1%, and Micron (25.8%), together accounting for over 95% of the market share. Including Nanya Technology (2%) and Winbond Electronics (0.9%), the top five companies account for 98.4%.

Although industry points out that, compared to global giants, China-produced LPDDR5 currently has certain gaps in terms of capacity, speed, and other aspects, it is essential to note that LPDDR5 is trending towards becoming the mainstream in smartphone products. CXMT’s entry into this field coincides with the boom in LPDDR5 development.

TrendForce’s recent research on LPDDR indicates that LPDDR4X remains predominant in the mainstream market, with LPDDR5(X) focus on the high-end market for smartphones. However, with the introduction of Intel’s new Alder lake platform, LPDDR5(X) is gaining prominence in the laptop sector. It is estimated that the market share of LPDDR5(X) will exceed 25% in 2023.

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According to the South Korean media The Korea Economic Daily’s report, Samsung Electronics has established a new business unit dedicated to developing next-generation chip processing technology. The aim is to secure a leading position in the field of AI chips and foundry services.

The report indicates that the recently formed research team at Samsung will be led by Hyun Sang-jin, who was promoted to the position of general manager on November 29. He has been assigned the responsibility of ensuring a competitive advantage against competitors like TSMC in the technology landscape.

The team will be placed under Samsung’s chip research center within its Device Solutions (DS) division, which oversees its semiconductor business, as mentioned in the report.

Reportedly, insiders claim that Samsung aims for the latest technology developed by the team to lead the industry for the next decade or two, similar to the gate-all-around (GAA) transistor technology introduced by Samsung last year.

Samsung has previously stated that compared to the previous generation process, the 3-nanometer GAA process can deliver a 30% improvement in performance, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and a 45% reduction in chip size. In the report, Samsung also claimed that it is more energy-efficient compared to FinFET technology, which is utilized by the TSMC’s 3-nanometer process.

Read more

• [News] IC Design Companies Seek Advanced Process Second Source, Overview of Competition Between TSMC and Samsung

(Photo credit: Samsung)