After several quarters of inventory depletion, the NAND market is gradually heating up, and there are concerns of a tighten supply in 2024. During an Investor Meeting held on the 7th, Phison Electronics Corporation, a supplier of NAND flash memory controllers and modules, announced that due to capacity limitations in NAND flash production, NAND supply has become constrained. When entering 4Q23, the company is already facing tighten supply for some of its products. Consequently, Phison plans to prepay its NAND flash suppliers to ensure a stable supply, as reported by CTEE.

Phison noted that its suppliers have been reducing production since the 4Q22, and it has accelerated since the 2Q23. Following three to four quarters of inventory depletion, the NAND market is gradually recovering, leading to a stabilization in NAND prices.

In fact, the strategy of module manufacturers is influenced by NAND flash suppliers. For instance, Samsung has been actively raising NAND prices. After the company initially raised NAND prices by 10% to 20% this quarter, it has decided to continue increasing prices by quarter in 2024. This strategic decision reflects Samsung’s determination to stabilize NAND prices with the aim of reversing the market’s direction in the first half of the upcoming year.

Notably, NAND chips and DRAM account for roughly half of Samsung’s memory chip sales. Simultaneously, while raising prices, Samsung continues to decrease production to control market supply, which, in turn, improves market stability and profitability.

TrendForce previously indicated that with NAND wafer prices leading the increase since August and suppliers adopting a firmer stance in negotiations, Q4 enterprise SSD contract prices are projected to rise by approximately 5~10%. On the client SSD front, as suppliers gain more bargaining power, both high-end and low-end products are expected to increase concurrently, with 4Q23 PC client SSD contract prices projected to rise by 8~13%.

TrendForce’s NAND Flash price analysis released today also highlighted that due to continuous shortages in recent wafer supply, the market has been experiencing rising prices under a shrinking volume. While spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies have been oscillating narrowly in quotations on account of the persistently constrained level of visibility in demand.
(Image: Samsung)

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Samsung’s upcoming flagship Galaxy S24 series, reportedly set to be unveiled in mid-January 2024, will feature Qualcomm’s latest Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 processor. This new series will highlight Samsung’s first-ever generative AI smartphone, with a sales target expected to increase by over 10% compared to the previous S23 model, reaching more than 34 million units.

As reported by “The Korea Daily,” Samsung is planning to unveil the Galaxy S24 series of new smartphones in mid-January 2024, making it the first major Android flagship to be launched next year. To ensure the successful market debut of the new devices, Samsung is expected to initiate the procurement process from its supply chain in the very near future.

Industry sources have revealed that Samsung’s internal estimates project smartphone sales for next year to reach approximately 253 million units and this figure is expected to be adjusted upwards in the near future according to Economic Daily.

In comparison, Apple’s projected total iPhone sales for the next year, according to a market analyst, are expected to be around 250 million units, making the estimates of these two major smartphone giants quite close.

It is reported that Samsung’s recent flagship devices in the S series have delivered subpar performance. Both the S21 and S22 models achieved sales figures of fewer than 30 million units, while the estimated sales for the S23 series stand at around 31 million units.

Notably, Samsung is currently collaborating with major players such as Google and Microsoft, and there is a strong likelihood that they will incorporate generative AI features like Google Bard or ChatGPT into the Galaxy S24.

This move aims to make the Galaxy S24 their first generative AI smartphone, serving as a prominent selling point for the new device and enhancing the operating system, thereby narrowing the gap with Apple.

Industry experts point out that while smartphone brands tend to estimate sales figures for new products before their launch, the smartphone market has experienced weakened demand in recent years.

Many brands have adopted a conservative approach to sales estimates, even controlling production capacity and marketing budgets to reduce risks. In this context, Samsung’s decision to set clear growth targets stands as a demonstration of their high confidence in the new product.

As for the supply chain, Largan Precision is the primary supplier of main camera components for the Galaxy S24, while GIS is responsible for supplying the in-display fingerprint module, and TXC Corporation provides quartz components.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

In the spot market, DRAM prices are showing a slight divergence from the contract market. Spot demand has decreased, preventing further price increases for DRAM chips. Meanwhile, NAND Flash prices have been rising due to ongoing wafer shortage. However, spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies remain stable due to uncertain demand visibility.

DRAM Spot Market

The price trend of the spot market diverges slightly from that of the contract market. Recently, demand has dropped in the spot market. Even though DRAM suppliers and module houses have been passive in offering price concessions, there also has been no noticeable increase in demand. Furthermore, there is growing sentiment in the spot market that waiting for further developments is the best option. Hence, spot prices of DRAM chips have not been able to rise further. As for modules, their spot prices have experienced limited fluctuations because Kingston, as the leading module house, is unwilling to raise quotes due to its high inventory level. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 1.69% from US$1.600 last week to US$1.627 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

The spot market, due to continuous shortages in recent wafer supply, has been experiencing rising prices under a shrinking volume, while spot quotations for NAND Flash packaged dies have been oscillating narrowly in quotations on account of the persistently constrained level of visibility in demand. Follow ups on market prices can still be seen among products involved in production cuts of suppliers, whereas other products are fluctuating according to market demand. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 6.94% this week, arriving at US$2.464.

On November 7th, Intel held its “Intel Innovation Taipei 2023 Technology Forum”, with CEO Pat Gelsinger highlighting the healthy state of PC inventory. He also expressed optimism about the injection of several more years of innovative applications and evolution in PCs through AI. 

Intel Aims to Ship over One Hundred Million AI PC within the Next Two Years

Gelsinger expressed that the PC inventory has reached a healthy level, and he is optimistic about the future growth of AI PCs, which are equipped with AI processors or possess AI computing capabilities. He anticipates that AI will be a crucial turning point for the PC industry.

Additionally, Gelsinger stated that the server industry may have seemed uneventful in recent years, but with the accelerated development of AI, it has become more exciting. AI is becoming ubiquitous, transitioning from the training phase to the deployment phase, and various platforms will revolve around AI.

Gelsinger expressed his strong confidence in Intel’s position in the AI PC market, expecting to ship over one hundred million units within two years.

Intel’s Ambitious Expansion in Semiconductor Foundry Landscape

Intel is actively promoting its IDM 2.0 strategy, with expectations from the industry that the company, beyond its brand business, has advanced packaging capabilities to support semiconductor foundry operations. In the future, Intel is poised to compete with rivals such as TSMC and Samsung.

Gelsinger noted that some have viewed Intel’s plan of achieving five technical nodes in four years as “an ambitious endeavor.” However, he emphasized that Intel remains committed to its original goal of advancing five process nodes within four years.

The company’s foundry business has received positive responses from numerous potential customers, and while it may take three to four years for significant expansion, the advanced packaging aspect may only require two to three quarters to get on track.

This transformation marks a significant shift for the company, setting new standards in the industry. Intel is making steady progress in its four-year plan to advance five nodes, and Moore’s Law will continue to extend. The construction of Intel’s new factories is also ongoing.

According to Intel’s roadmap, Intel 7 and Intel 4 are already completed, Intel 3 is set for mass production in the latter half of this year, and Intel 20A and 18A are expected to enter mass production in the first and second halves of next year, respectively.

Regarding this roadmap, according to NIKKEI Asia’s report, Gelsinger also mentioned at the forum that for the 18A process, they currently have many test wafers in production. Additionally, the development of 18A has been completed, and it is progressing rapidly towards the production phase.

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(Photo credit: Intel Newsroom)

During an earnings call in November 2023, Isao Matsumoto, President of ROHM Semiconductor, disclosed the company’s plans to the production of 8-inch SiC substrates at its second plant in Miyazaki, Japan, starting in 2024. This is the first time ROHM will produce SiC substrates in Japan.

Notably, the Miyazaki Plant No.2 Project is part of ROHM’s ongoing capacity expansion strategy. The company intends to invest between 170 and 220 billion yen in its SiC business from 2021 to 2025.

For SiC power semiconductor manufacturers like ROHM, it’s imperative to bolster their SiC substrate production capacity. This is driven by two key factors. Firstly, there has been a shortage of substrate materials, which has posed a challenge for the SiC power semiconductor industry. Secondly, the growing wave of electric vehicles has led to an increased demand for SiC power semiconductors.

To thrive in the SiC power semiconductor industry and capture a big market share, major companies are actively investing in expanding their production capacity. They often choose to form supply agreements with suppliers, set up their own production lines, or acquire related businesses.

ROHM previously established a pioneering position in the industry by producing SiC substrates at its plant in Nuremberg, Germany, following the acquisition of SiCrystal, a German SiC substrate manufacturer.

The Miyazaki plant no.2, scheduled to start production in 2024, was originally the Kunitomi plant of Solar Frontier, a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan. In July of this year, ROHM announced its acquisition of the assets of Solar Frontier’s former Kunitomi plant, a deal that concluded in October. It’s worth noting that this plant will become ROHM’s largest SiC power semiconductor production hub in Japan.

While pursuing acquisitions, ROHM is also actively expanding its in-house production capacity. According to information on ROHM’s official website, the company currently operates four SiC power semiconductor production plants in Japan, located at its Kyoto headquarters, Chikugo Plant in Fukuoka, Nagahama Plant in Fukuoka, and Miyazaki plant no.1.

Both acquisitions and in-house production strategies help ensure a reliable product supply. However, in the dynamic SiC industry, forward-thinking leaders are eager to secure additional production capacity in advance. Collaboration with established manufacturers is a common approach, and ROHM is no exception.

In June of this year, ROHM signed a long-term supply partnership agreement for SiC power devices with Vitesco. According to this agreement, the combined transactions between the two companies from 2024 to 2030 will exceed 130 billion yen.
(Image: ROHM)