According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, the share of Chinese companies in Apple’s laptop manufacturing has expanded. After Luxshare secured assembly contracts for AirPods and iPhones, Chinese ODM Wingtec has commenced mass production of the 13-inch MacBook Air at its Kunming facility in Yunnan province, gradually eroding the historical market share of Taiwanese manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta.

Both Foxconn and Quanta have exhibited relatively conservative stances towards the laptop market this quarter. Apple’s suppliers has typically refrained from commenting on competitor dynamics and single customer order trends. Quanta believes that the laptop market’s recovery is sluggish, with laptop shipments anticipated to decrease by 20% in the coming year. Additionally, the shift of certain Chromebook orders to an early June shipment date, coupled with a high base effect, is expected to result in a decline in the company’s laptop shipments this quarter.

On the other hand, at Foxconn, Chairman Young Liu previously stated that the company aimed to secure a larger market share in the personal computer (PC) segment. However, the decelerating momentum in the laptop industry demand is expected to persist into the latter half of the year. As a result, the third-quarter performance of the computer division is projected to remain on par with the second quarter while experiencing a decline compared to the same period last year.

Presently, Quanta is the largest assembly factory for Apple laptops, followed by Foxconn. According to China’s quality certification center, Wingtec has obtained a 3C quality certificate for its mass production of MacBook Air equipped with Apple’s M2 chip at the Kunming facility.

In the past, Apple’s MacBook Air product line was manufactured by both Foxconn and Quanta. Wingtec is the sole Chinese factory among Apple’s laptop manufacturers. Wingtec, known for its expertise in smartphone manufacturing, announced in April of this year that it secured Samsung’s 2023 smartphone and tablet ODM orders. In recent years, Wingtec has expanded its business scope to include semiconductors through acquisitions of automotive electronics firm Nexperia, successfully entering Apple’s supply chain.

Industry sources indicate that Apple is committed to diversifying MacBook laptop production to include various locations across China. Over the years, Apple has aimed to expand MacBook laptop production to more countries and companies. Analysts speculate that Apple’s ultimate plan is to allocate 55% of MacBook manufacturing to Quanta, 35% to Foxconn, and 10% to Wingtec.

(Photo credit: Apple)

In response to the demands of high-performance computing, AI, 5G, and other applications, the shift towards chiplet and the incorporation of HBM memory has become inevitable for advanced chips. As a result, packaging has transitioned from 2D to 2.5D and 3D formats.

With chip manufacturing advancing towards more advanced process nodes, the model of directly packaging chips using advanced packaging technology from wafer foundries has emerged. However, this approach also signifies that wafer foundries will encroach upon certain aspects of traditional assembly and testing, leading to ongoing discussions about the ‘threat’ to traditional assembly and test firms since TSMC’s entry into advanced packaging in 2011.

But is this perspective accurate?

In fact, traditional assembly and test firms remain competitively positioned. Firstly, numerous electronic products still rely on their diverse traditional packaging techniques. Particularly, with the rapid growth of AIoT, electric vehicles, and drones, the required electronic components often still adopt traditional packaging methods. Secondly, faced with wafer foundries actively entering the advanced packaging domain, traditional assembly and test firms have not been idle, presenting concrete solutions to the challenge.

Advanced Packaging Innovations by Traditional Assembly and Test Firms

Since 2023, AI and AI server trends have rapidly emerged, driving the demand for AI chips. TSMC’s 2.5D advanced packaging technology, known as CoWoS, has played a pivotal role. However, the sudden surge in demand stretched TSMC’s capacity. In response, major traditional assembly and test firms such as ASE and Amkor have demonstrated their technical prowess and have no intention of being absent from this field.

For instance, ASE’s FOCoS technology enables the integration of HBM and ASIC. It restructures multiple chips into a fan-out module, which is then placed on the substrate, achieving the integration of multiple chips. Their FOCoS-Bridge technology, unveiled in May this year, utilizes silicon bridges (Si Bridge) to accomplish 2.5D packaging, bolstering the creation of advanced chips required for applications like AI, data centers, and servers.

Additionally, SPIL, a subsidiary of ASE, offers the FO-EB technology, a powerful integration of logic IC and HBM. As depicted below, this technology eschews silicon interposers, utilizing silicon bridges and redistribution layers (RDL) for connections, similarly capable of 2.5D packaging.

Another major player, Amkor, has not only collaborated with Samsung to develop the H-Cube advanced packaging solution but has also long been involved in ‘CoWoS-like technology.’ Through intermediary layers and through-silicon via (TSV) technology, Amkor can interconnect different chips, also possessing 2.5D advanced packaging capabilities.

China’s major assembly and test firm, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET), employs the XDFOI technology, integrating logic ICs with HBM through TSV, RDL, and microbump techniques, aimed at high-performance computing.

Given the recent surge in demand for high-end GPU chips, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity has fallen short, and NVIDIA is actively seeking support from second or even third suppliers. The ASE Group and Amkor have secured partial orders through their packaging technologies. This clearly illustrates that traditional assembly and test firms, even when faced with the entry of wafer foundries into the advanced packaging domain, still possess the capability to compete.

In terms of product types, wafer foundries focus on advanced packaging technology for major players like NVIDIA and AMD. Meanwhile, other products not in the highest-end category still opt for traditional assembly and test firms like ASE, Amkor, and JCET for manufacturing. Overall, with their presence in advanced packaging, as well as a hold on the expanding existing packaging market, traditional assembly and test firms continue to maintain their market competitiveness.

(Photo credit: Amkor)

August Sees TV Demand Fluctuations

Entering August, the TV brand demands echo with noise. Despite 7% Q3 growth, a noticeable dip from last month’s projections appears. Yet, panel makers hold steady, adjusting production and raising TV panel prices due to unclear trends for larger sizes. Expect strong TV panel prices in August, up by USD 2~8. Notably, 75-inch panels could surge around USD 8.

Monitor Panels in August: Steady Outlook

In August, as consumer model demands saturate and commercial model needs to stay low, brands approach price hikes cautiously. Despite this, panel manufacturers aim to increase prices. Expect minor upticks in monitor panel prices for August. Open Cell panels could see a convergence of price increases, around USD 0.1. Projections include USD 0.1 hikes for 21.5-inch, 23.8-inch, and 27-inch panels.

Laptop Panel in August: Cautious Price Adjustments

Looking at August laptop panel prices, constrained growth in Q3 demand from top-tier brands leads to a cautious stance on broad price increases. Most brands accept minor adjustments for low-end HD TN models. Meanwhile, specific manufacturers slightly raise prices for mid-to-high-end FHD IPS models to select customers, while mainstream prices remain restrained. Anticipate a USD 0.1 uptick for HD TN models and stable prices for FHD IPS models in August.

According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily, the consumer market is experiencing starkly low demand, causing IC design firms primarily relying on mature processes, such as those in driver ICs, power management ICs, CMOS image sensors (CIS), and microcontrollers (MCUs), to adopt a notably cautious approach in placing orders. Some manufacturers are hesitating to place orders due to persistently high inventory levels.

The industry consensus is that IC design companies are expected to increase their orders in mature processes, with the earliest effects possibly emerging by 2024, implying that the mature process market conditions might not improve significantly until the end of this year.

The consumer market entered a period of economic downturn in the latter half of last year, which in turn affected industries such as PCs, smartphones, and networking. This not only led to a surge in inventory levels for IC design firms but also significantly curtailed the momentum for chip tape-out. Looking ahead to the second half of this year, while inventory levels across various sectors have largely returned to normal, chip tape-out for Q3 have notably declined compared to Q2.

In particular, demand for high-speed I/O in the PC sector and Board Management Controller for data centers remains notably weak. The supply chain indicates that PC demand for the second quarter, driven by advanced stocking, has dampened the typical peak season effect for the latter half of the year. This trend is evident across desktop PCs, laptops, and Chromebooks.”

As for the smartphone sector, after various research institutions revised down this year’s smartphone market size, the supply chain’s chip tape-out momentum has cooled down significantly. Only Qualcomm has increased its tape-out momentum to semiconductor foundries in the first half of the year, while MediaTek continues to adhere to a conservative strategy as of now.

(Photo credit: SMIC)

At an online investor meeting, Foxconn Group’s Chairman Young Liu shared insights on the company’s current endeavors. He disclosed that the group is in discussions with over 10 clients on 20 electric vehicle (EV) collaboration projects. Out of these, two projects are already in production, and five more are likely to result in contracts. Additionally, Foxconn’s electric vehicle platform, Model C, is on track for mass production in Taiwan in the fourth quarter. Analyzing the information released during the meeting, TrendForce offers the following insights:

• Foxconn’s Electric Vehicle Platform Outsourcing Model Builds a Self-Sufficient Ecosystem

Electrified vehicle platform manufacturing enables various components to be categorized into several platform types based on vehicle segments, avoiding the chaotic scenario of each car having unique specifications. This modular approach enhances the utilization of interior space and promotes advancements in battery life and future advanced driving control designs. Consequently, various automakers are introducing new energy vehicle platforms.

However, initial investments in platform development can be burdensome for automakers. Moreover, integrating new EV technologies into platforms poses potential risks. Foxconn’s EV platform, by adopting an ‘outsourced’ manufacturing concept, reduces initial resource expenditures for automakers and accelerates market entry for EV models.

Foxconn also presents the concept of MIH, a membership-based industry cluster, which gathers around 2,400 suppliers spanning battery, motor, and control systems, building a comprehensive EV platform ecosystem.

• Correct Market Approach Yet Missing a Vital Catalyst

Foxconn, not opting for a fully proprietary brand, draws lessons from Taiwan’s automotive brand history. Building on years of contract manufacturing, the company ventures into the EV market, positioning itself ahead of the curve.

However, with the rapid global development of electric vehicles, the early advantages Foxconn established face challenges. The Volkswagen MEB platform successfully produced the Ford Explorer, hinting at potential collaborations through platform sharing. Audi is reportedly considering direct acquisition of a Chinese new energy vehicle platform. The common theme here is that traditional automakers seem inclined to collaborate with proven counterparts, showcasing the cautious approach toward platforms. At this stage, while Foxconn’s promising achievements might attract certain startups, their stability and market scale might not fully align with Foxconn’s EV market expectations.

Foxconn is well-prepared but awaits a catalyst. The company currently lacks the support of established automakers like GM, BMW, and Stellantis. If the projects mentioned during the investor meeting involve collaborations with such established players and secure manufacturing contracts, Foxconn’s model will foster a more diversified evolution in future EV platform collaborations.

(Photo credit: Foxconn)