The United States has elevated its efforts to curtail the advancement of high-end chips in China. As reported by the CLS News, various companies within China have indicated they received advance notifications and have already amassed chip stockpiles. Analysts suggest that this new wave of bans implies a further restriction by the U.S. on China’s computational capabilities, making the development of domestically-manufactured GPUs in China a matter of utmost importance.

According to the latest regulations, chips, including Nvidia’s A800 and H800, will be impacted by the export ban to China. An insider from a Chinese server company revealed they received the ban notice at the beginning of October and have already stockpiled a sufficient quantity. Nevertheless, they anticipate substantial pressure in the near future. The procurement manager for a downstream customer of Inspur noted that they had proactively shared this information and urged potential buyers to act promptly if they require related products.

Larger companies like Tencent and Baidu are less affected by the ban due to their ample stockpiles. On October 17th, HiRain Technologies announced that its subsidiary had purchased 75 units of H800 and 22 units of A800 from supplier A and had resolved this issue two weeks ago.

(Image: NVIDIA)

According to a report from South Korean media ETNEWS, Samsung Electronics has appointed former Onsemi director Stephen Hong as Vice President to oversee the SiC (Silicon Carbide) power semiconductor business. They’ve also set up an internal department dedicated to SiC power semiconductors.

Stephen Hong, an expert in power semiconductors with around 25 years of experience at major global companies like Infineon, Fairchild, and Onsemi, is leading this effort after joining Samsung.

Stephen Hong is currently in the process of assembling a team for SiC commercialization, while actively engaging with South Korea’s power semiconductor industry ecosystem and academic institutions for market and business feasibility studies. It’s noteworthy that when Samsung officially ventured into the GaN (Gallium Nitride) business, it had also formed relevant business teams in advance.

It’s expected that Stephen Hong will be pivotal in devising the direction and strategies for Samsung’s SiC power semiconductor business. In addition, Samsung Electronics has commenced comprehensive preparations for the GaN power semiconductor business. Samsung’s commitment to this endeavor is underlined by its decision to acquire Aixtron’s latest MOCVD equipment, specifically for processing GaN and SiC wafers. This investment is estimated to be at least 700-800 billion Korean won, roughly equivalent to 0.54-0.62 billion US dollars.

Although Samsung’s third-generation semiconductor foundry business is expected to launch in 2025, it is currently in the research and sample stage, necessitating significant investments in equipment to support future mass production endeavors.

In accordance with TrendForce’s analysis, the global SiC power device market is projected to reach $2.28 billion in 2023, with a notable YoY growth of 41.4%. It is expected to expand to $5.33 billion by 2026.

Samsung made a strategic shift by planning to produce GaN and SiC semiconductors on 8-inch wafers, deviating from the common 6-inch approach and gaining industry attention. The increased focus on SiC aligns with the challenges faced by its wafer foundry business, where fluctuations in fab utilization rates significantly impact financial performance.

According to the most recent research from TrendForce, there’s an expectation that Samsung’s utilization rate for its 8-inch wafer fabrication facility could drop to 50% in 2024. This decline is largely due to a worldwide reduction in semiconductor demand, compounded by geopolitical factors, creating a tough business environment that has affected Samsung’s order volume.

As the demand for SiC and GaN power semiconductors continues to rise and Samsung confronts challenges in its Si wafer business, the company, along with competitors like DB Hitek and Key Foundry, is gearing up to launch 8-inch GaN foundry services. This strategic move is anticipated to come to fruition between 2025 and 2026.

In response to these multifaceted dynamics, Samsung has taken an accelerated approach to GaN and SiC, with the aim of capturing a more substantial market share and breathing new life into its traditional wafer foundry business.

Explore more:

• The M&A battle for SiC: Who’s the Top Acquirers?
• SiC vs. Silicon Debate: Will the Winner Take All?
• Chinese Players Rally for Demand Surge in MOSFET, IGBT, and SiC

(Image: Samsung)

In March 2023, Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun reiterated that Xiaomi’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) would enter mass production in the first half of 2024. Fast forward to October 4, 2023, and reports indicate that Xiaomi’s EV, codenamed MS11, has received certification from the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG). Furthermore, with ongoing news about hiring, site selection, and trial production, though the exact mass production date is yet to be confirmed, it is likely not far from Chairman Lei Jun’s commitment, potentially positioning Xiaomi ahead of Apple and Sony in launching new energy vehicles.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Extensive Preparation: Xiaomi’s Years of Investment in Automotive Components

With the transition to the era of new energy vehicles, there is a shift from traditional gasoline to electric power as the primary energy source. Additionally, the increasing demand for advanced driver-assistance systems has attracted numerous electronics and technology companies to enter the new energy vehicle industry. For instance, smartphone brands such as Xiaomi, Apple, and Sony have all announced plans to manufacture EV. Based on the progress reported by the media, Xiaomi may take the lead in commencing mass production of new energy vehicles in 2024, while Apple and Sony, the latter in collaboration with Honda, are likely to introduce their new energy vehicles after 2025.

To ensure adequate self-sufficiency and competitiveness, Xiaomi began laying the foundation early. Starting as far back as 2016, the company ventured into the field of LiDAR. Over the years, Xiaomi, along with its affiliated funds and investment entities, has made extensive investments in crucial components such as power batteries, electric propulsion systems, and electronic controls. These investments have covered more than 50 companies in the industry. Notably, in 2021, Xiaomi acquired DeepMotion, a startup specializing in autonomous driving solutions. Xiaomi’s investment strategy indicates it possesses the necessary tools to enter the new energy vehicle industry, including mastery of essential components and substantial capital resources.

2. New Energy Vehicles: High Costs, Low Profit Margins

The automotive industry is characterized by substantial capital investments, with a significant portion of revenue stemming from post-sale maintenance and services. Pioneering startups in the field of new energy vehicles, such as NIO and Li Auto, continue to grapple with financial losses. Although NIO’s President, Lihong Qin, expressed that “when a company does a series of things right, profitability will come naturally,” it remains to be seen whether Xiaomi, accustomed to the consumer electronics sector, shares the same level of patience.

Despite Xiaomi’s focus on profitability through smart driving software-related subscription services, the challenges are significant. Current limitations lie in the complexities associated with the responsibility for advanced autonomous driving systems beyond Level 3. The automotive industry currently prioritizes Level 2 automation, and according to data from the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reveals that, by 2022, the penetration rate of Level 2 (L2) vehicles had already reached 34.5%. This high level of adoption indicates a highly competitive landscape, which may present challenges for Xiaomi’s business model. Xiaomi’s typical approach involves leveraging low-margin hardware to acquire users and generate traffic, with profits coming from its ecosystem of services, including advertising and internet-related offerings.

Moreover, new energy vehicles tend to have longer product lifecycles compared to smartphones. As a result, consumers with budget constraints tend to prioritize the tangible value of hardware. This implies that building acceptance for software subscription services may require a significant amount of time.

Xiaomi might have crossed the initial hurdles of entering the automotive industry. However, the challenges post-entry, as outlined above, will genuinely test whether the Xiaomi model can be as effective in the new energy vehicle sector as it has been in its traditional domains.

Explore more

• [News] Xiaomi’s EV Charging Patents Revealed, Unwavering Progress in Car Manufacturing
• [News] Xiaomi Begins Trial Production of 50 Prototype Cars per Week
• [News] Xiaomi EV Reportedly Finalizes Battery Supplier List, CALB and CATL Chosen

Foxconn held its Tech Day on October 18, 2023, where Chairman Young Liu addressed the company’s stance and strategy in response to the high growth of the EV market in mainland China, which significantly impacts the global EV industry.

Liu began by discussing the prevailing trend of electric vehicles in China, emphasizing that while the focus has primarily been on the development of EVs, the business model has received limited attention. Foxconn’s approach in the EV industry centers on its Commissioned Design and Manufacturing Service (CDMS) business model, but Liu stressed that in China, CDMS alone is not permitted. Automakers in mainland China must engage in both manufacturing and sales.

Liu explained that the CDMS model doesn’t involve the creation of Foxconn’s own brand, a practice currently disallowed in mainland China. However, the competitive landscape is shifting, with fierce competition, particularly among domestic automakers. With an estimated 100 to 200 automakers in China, the market has become increasingly intense, prompting a focus on minimizing costs and investments. In this context, Foxconn’s CDMS model emerges as a viable solution, as investing in 100 automakers would be prohibitively expensive. Liu anticipates that China will eventually open up to the outsourcing model. While Foxconn isn’t currently engaged in EV manufacturing in mainland China, it’s gradually building relevant capabilities, preparing for the moment when outsourcing becomes permissible, enabling Foxconn to take a leading position.

Regarding the interest of Japanese automotive giants in Foxconn’s electric vehicles, Liu noted that their stance is clear. They consider themselves partners to established auto brands. Traditional automakers have traditionally covered all aspects, transitioning from internal combustion engines to batteries. However, in the age of electric vehicles, the shift can no longer be about the engine as a barrier to entry into the industry. Traditional automakers must now contemplate how to create value, which represents their most significant challenge.

Manufacturing, Liu noted, is no longer the source of value that traditional automakers can create. Instead, they should focus on marketing and services. It involves understanding how to leverage apps and scenarios to offer consumers unique experiences. Traditionally, brands like Mercedes-Benz stood for luxury, while BMW represented driving performance. In the era of electric vehicles, positioning needs to shift toward services rather than engine definitions.

Liu offered the analogy of televisions to illustrate his point. Sony was a leader during the cathode-ray tube era, but as the market transitioned to liquid crystal displays, the focus shifted to panels, and every brand became indistinguishable. Liu’s advice to potential Japanese automotive partners is to delve deeper into understanding the users, emphasizing that this will be critical in the age of electric vehicles.

Explore more 

• [News] Foxconn Aims to Create AI Factory for Smart Cities and EVs with NVIDIA
• [News] Foxconn’s Tech Day Showcases New Electric Vehicle Model and Vertical Integration Capabilities 

(Photo credit: Foxconn)

TrendForce reports that from 2023 to 2027, the global ratio of mature (>28nm) to advanced (<16nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China’s mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan’s share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.

Expansion predominantly targets specialty processes such as Driver ICs, CIS/ISPs, and Power Discretes, with second and third-tier Taiwanese manufacturers at the forefront

Within the Driver IC sector, the spotlight is on high voltage (HV) specialty processes. As companies aggressively pursue the 40/28nm HV process, UMC currently dominates, trailed by GlobalFoundries. Yet, SMIC’s 28HV and Nexchip’s 40HV are gearing up for mass production in 4Q23 and 1H24, respectively—narrowing their technological gap with other foundries. Notably, competitors with similar process capabilities and capacities, such as PSMC, and those without twelve-inch factories like Vanguard and DBHitek, are poised to face challenges head-on in the short term. This trend may also have long-term implications for UMC and GlobalFoundries.

In the realm of CIS/ISP, 3D CIS structure comprises a logic layer ISP and CIS pixel layer. The primary demarcation for mainstream processes is around 45/40nm range for the logic layer ISP, which continues to progress toward more advanced nodes. Meanwhile, the CIS pixel layer, along with FSI/BSI CIS, predominantly uses 65/55nm and above processes. Currently, TSMC, UMC, and Samsung are the frontrunners in this technology. Yet, Chinese players like SMIC and Nexchip are hot on their heels, swiftly closing the gap. Their ascent is further fueled by Chinese smartphone titans OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi. Additionally, domestic shifts prompted by governmental policies are positioning Chinese CIS companies like OmniVision, Galaxycore, and SmartSens to rally behind local production.

Power Discretes mainly encompass products like MOSFETs and IGBTs. Vanguard and HHGrace have been deeply involved in Power Discrete processes for some time, boasting a more comprehensive process platform and vehicle certification than many competitors. However, a wave of Chinese contenders, backed by national policies favoring EVs and solar initiatives, are ready to stake their claim, intensifying global competition in this sector. This includes mainstream foundries like HHGrace, SMIC, Nexchip, and CanSemi. Additionally, smaller Chinese IDMs and foundries, such as GTA and CRMicro, are also entering the competitive landscape. If China massively ramps up its production capacity, it will intensify global competition in Power Discrete manufacturing. The impact will not only spark price wars among local Chinese businesses but could also erode the order books and clientele of Taiwanese companies.

In a nutshell, while China actively courts both global and domestic IC designers to bolster its local manufacturing presence, the ensuing massive expansion could flood the global market with mature processes, potentially igniting a price war. TrendForce notes that as China’s mature process capacities continue to emerge, the localization trends for Driver IC, CIS/ISP, and Power Discretes will become more pronounced. Second and third-tier foundries with similar process platforms and capacities might face risks of client attrition and pricing pressures. Taiwan’s industry leaders, renowned for their specialty processes—UMC, PSMC, Vanguard to name a few—will find themselves in the eye of the storm. The battle ahead will hinge on technological prowess and efficient production yields.