According to TechNews on October 18th, The Biden administration has once again tightened restrictions on chip exports to China, and this includes Nvidia’s advanced AI chips.

In a recent press release, the U.S. government announced a renewed restrictions on exports of advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing products to China. Notably, this includes Nvidia’s cutting-edge AI chips, which will be impacted and could potentially face restrictions on sales to China. The motive behind this action by the Biden administration is to prevent China from bolstering its military capabilities by accessing advanced U.S. technology.

Apart from Nvidia, chip products from industry giants like Intel and AMD might also encounter hurdles in their journey to China. In addition to the actual chips, products from semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Lam Research, KLA, and Applied Materials may also face increased limitations when destined for China.

These new restrictions, as revealed by the U.S. government, are even more stringent than previous limitations on chip exports. Nvidia’s A800 and H800 chips are among those falling under these tightened restrictions. As a direct consequence, Nvidia’s stock price took a sharp dip, decreasing by nearly 5% on Tuesday.

Following the recent U.S. government ban, Nvidia’s spokesperson, Ken Brown, promptly assured that the company strictly adheres to all relevant regulations. Nvidia is committed to supporting a wide array of products across diverse industries. Given the global demand for Nvidia’s offerings, it’s anticipated that these restrictions will have no immediate, substantial impact on Nvidia’s financial performance.

In a bid to curtail China’s potential access to U.S. chips through third-party channels, these limitations now extend to include the overseas subsidiaries of Chinese firms. Furthermore, the updated regulations expand the list of countries subject to additional export license requirements for advanced chips to over 40 more nations. This expansion is driven by the concern that these countries might transfer chips to China and their presence on the U.S. arms embargo list.

Notably, the interim final rule revises ECCN 3A090 and 4A090 and enforces extra licensing prerequisites for exports to China and the D1, D4, and D5 country groups. These groups include nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam, though Israel remains excluded.

To safeguard against China’s potential acquisition of U.S. chips through alternative routes, these restrictions have been extended to encompass overseas subsidiaries of Chinese corporations and involve 21 other countries.

However, reports from foreign media indicating that this new U.S. regulation will exempt certain consumer chips used in laptops, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Nonetheless, some chips may still necessitate prior notification and licensing from the U.S. government to be exported.

It’s noteworthy that the U.S. government’s list of newly restricted entities includes two prominent local GPU companies, Moore Thread Technology and Biren Technology. Following the U.S. ban, both firms promptly issued statements of strong protest.

Moore Thread expressed their strong objection, saying, “We are deeply concerned about the inclusion of Moore Thread in the Entity List by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Our company is actively engaging with various stakeholders, and we are assessing the impact of this development.”

Biren Technology also issued a statement, stating, “We vehemently oppose the U.S. Department of Commerce’s actions and will proactively appeal to relevant U.S. government departments, urging them to reconsider their stance.”
(Image: Nvidia)

(Data: US BIS)

On October 2, 2023, the CEO of Alphabet announced that Google, under its umbrella, is partnering with the leading laptop brand, HP, to manufacture Chromebook laptops in India. This move comes at a time when Dell, Asus, and other laptop manufacturers have begun production in India. HP is leveraging its existing local factories and government incentives, aiming to capitalize on the vast population and educational opportunities in India. In a similar vein, Samsung and Google have collaborated in Vietnam to launch the Galaxy Chromebook Go, targeting the education sector. The Chromebook is gradually expanding its production and introduction to various regions.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Google Teams Up with HP to Launch Chromebook, Chromebook Plus Aims to Attract New Consumer Segments

Through the collaboration of HP, a dominant player in the global laptop market, and Google, renowned for its software expertise in the Chrome operating system, Chromebooks are set to be manufactured in India for the first time. This partnership leverages the power of two industry giants to produce Chromebooks locally, offering a cost-effective alternative to the long-standing dominance of white label tablets in India’s education market. Chromebooks, equipped with the Chrome OS, known for easy management and robust security, are set to benefit from government incentives and manufacturer collaborations, working together to create affordable, secure, and high-quality devices. This effort aims to enhance the learning experience for Indian students.

HP, since 2020, has been utilizing the Flex Ltd. factory in Chennai, India, for the production of laptops and desktops. On October 2, 2023, they extended their production line to include Chromebooks. The factory will assemble various types of devices, including laptops, desktops, and Chromebooks, all designed to cater to the local market’s needs. This move is expected to enhance HP’s brand value and market share in India.

In addition, Google and various leading brands launched the Chromebook Plus in the North American market on October 8, 2023. The new models come in screen sizes of 14 inches and 15.6 inches, boasting high-end hardware configurations and AI features. The base model starts at $399.99, with a price difference of less than $200 compared to conventional laptops currently sold in India. This suggests the possibility of local production for the Google Chromebook Plus in India, aiming to attract a diverse range of consumers.

2. Apart from India’s policies and incentives, Vietnam also Attracts Foreign Investment with EU Tariff Benefits and Low Labor Costs

India, with its population of 1.4 billion, presents a dual advantage of a vast labor force and a significant domestic market. After the successful local assembly of iPhones in India, the nation is taking strides toward its goal of local manufacturing. The Indian government has initiated the “Make in India” policy, aiming to entice the production, assembly, and shipment of more electronic end-products in the country. In August 2023, the Indian government announced a delayed implementation of import restrictions on computer products, with a decision pending a year later. Currently, many brand manufacturers can still import fully assembled products into India, temporarily avoiding the impact of high tariffs on imported materials and equipment. Brand manufacturers may also utilize this period to actively collaborate with the government in planning local production initiatives in the region.

Beyond India, numerous Taiwanese assembly plants have made investments in Vietnam. In contrast to India’s policy-driven approach to local manufacturing, Vietnam offers advantages such as EU tariff preferences and low labor costs. For example, Samsung has previously established its dominance in Vietnam by assembling panel modules and laptops. As a result, in collaboration with Google, they introduced the Galaxy Chromebook Go in Vietnam, targeting local markets with simplified, lower-end laptop configurations. It is speculated that other Taiwanese manufacturing plants in Vietnam will follow this operating model.

As the overall technological and industrial capabilities in Vietnam continue to improve, they are poised to take on mid to high-end laptop models by 2024-2025. While American brands continue to rely on China for the production of consumer and business laptops, the collaboration between Google Chromebook and other brand manufacturers in regions like India and Vietnam is expected to become increasingly close.

Driven by emerging technologies like AI and high-performance computing, the semiconductor foundry industry increasingly emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing processes. Recently, the industry has seen significant developments. Intel announced that it has commenced large-scale production of its Intel 4 process node, while TSMC and Samsung are equally committed to advancing their advanced process technologies.

Intel’s Mass Production of Intel 4 Process Node

On October 15th, Intel China’s official public account revealed that Intel has initiated large-scale production of the Intel 4 process node using Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) technology. According to Intel, they are making significant progress with their “Four Years, Five Nodes” plan. This plan aims to produce next-generation products that meet the computational demands driven by AI’s role in the “Siliconomy.”

Being the first process node produced by Intel using EUV lithography technology, Intel 4 offers substantial improvements in performance, efficiency, and transistor density compared to its predecessors. Intel 4 was unveiled at the Intel Innovation 2023 held in September this year.

In comparison to Intel 7, Intel 4 achieves a 2x reduction in area, providing high-performance computing (HPC) logic libraries and incorporating various innovative features.

In detail, Intel 4 simplifies the EUV lithography process, optimizing it for high-performance computing applications, supporting both low voltage (<0.65V) and high voltage (>1.1V) operations. Compared to Intel 7, Intel 4 boasts more than a 20% improvement in iso-power performance, and high-density Metal-Insulator-Metal (MIM) capacitors deliver outstanding power supply performance.

Intel 7 and Intel 4 are currently in large-scale production. Intel 3 is on track to meet its planned target by the end of 2023.

Intel’s Intel 20A and Intel 18A, which use Ribbon FET all-around gate transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery technology, are also progressing well, with a target of 2024. Intel will soon introduce the Intel 18A process design kit (PDK) for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) customers.

With the adoption of Intel 4 process nodes, the Intel Core i9 Ultra processor, codenamed “Meteor Lake,” will be released on December 14th this year, ushering in the AIPC era.

On Intel 3 process nodes, the energy-efficient E-core Sierra Forest processor will be launched in the first half of 2024, and the high-performance P-core Granite Rapids processor will follow closely.

Samsung’s 2nm Process Detailed Production Plan

Samsung has already commenced production of its second-generation 3nm chips and plans to continue focusing on 2nm chips.

On June 28th, Samsung Electronics unveiled its latest foundry technology innovations and business strategies at the 7th Samsung Foundry Forum (SFF) in 2023.

In the era of artificial intelligence, Samsung’s foundry program, based on advanced GAA process technology, offers robust support for customers in AI applications. To this end, Samsung has disclosed a detailed production plan and performance levels for its 2nm process. The plan is to achieve mass production for mobile applications by 2025 and respectively expand to HPC and automotive electronics in 2026 and 2027.

Samsung reports that the 2nm process (SF2) improves performance by 12% compared to the 3nm process (SF3), increases efficiency by 25%, and reduces the area by 5%.

Furthermore, reports indicated that Samsung is ensuring the production capacity for products using the next-generation EUV lithography machine, High-NA, in September. This equipment is expected to have a prototype by the end of this year and officially enter production next year.

TSMC’s Mass Production of 2nm by 2025

This year, TSMC has unveiled its latest advanced semiconductor manufacturing roadmap in various locations, including Santa Clara, California, and Taiwan. The roadmap covers a range of processes from 3nm to 2nm.

TSMC’s current roadmap for 3nm includes N3, N3E, N3P, N3X, and N3 AE, with N3 serving as the foundational version, N3E as an enhanced version with further cost optimization, N3P focusing on improved performance with a planned start in the second half of 2024, N3X targeting high-performance computing devices with a mass production goal in 2025, and N3 AE designed specifically for the automotive sector, offering greater reliability and the potential to shorten time-to-market by 2-3 years.

In the 2nm realm, TSMC is planning to achieve mass production of the N2 process by 2025. TSMC has reported that the N2 process will offer a 15% speed improvement over N3E at the same power or a 30% reduction in power consumption, with a 15% increase in transistor density. In September, media reports revealed that TSMC has formed a task force to accelerate 2nm pilot production and mass production, aiming for risk production next year and official mass production in 2025.

To ensure the smooth development of 2nm process technology, TSMC has initiated efforts in the upstream equipment sector. On September 12th, TSMC announced the acquisition of a 10% stake in IMS Nanofabrication, a subsidiary of Intel, for a price not exceeding $432.8 million. IMS specializes in the research and production of electron beam lithography machines, which find extensive applications in semiconductor manufacturing, optical component manufacturing, MEMS manufacturing, and more. The industry sees TSMC’s IMS acquisition as vital for developing crucial equipment and meeting the demand for 2nm process commercialization.

(Image: Intel)

Foxconn is set to host its Technology Day event on October 18, with a significant emphasis on electric vehicles (EVs). Market insiders have revealed that Foxconn will showcase its first registered electric car based on the Model C platform and unveil its plans for mass production of the Model B sample vehicle.

Foxconn’s Technology Day will take place at the Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center, Hall 2, with Chairman Young Liu sharing the strategic vision of the Foxconn Group during the morning session. Foxconn will also unveil its electric vehicle and semiconductor strategies. Partners in Foxconn’s electric vehicle strategy will engage in discussions. It is expected that Jensen Huang, the founder of NVIDIA, a prominent chip design company, will share updates on their collaboration with Foxconn regarding automotive chips and applications during Foxconn Technology Day.

Foxconn recently released short videos on their official Facebook page, teasing the production version of their electric logistics concept vehicles, Model N and the urban-friendly Model B. On the upcoming Technology Day, which falls on the 18th of the month, around noon, Foxconn is set to unveil their new electric vehicles.

According to a report by the CNA, market insiders disclosed to reporters that Foxconn’s Technology Day will showcase the debut of Luxgen’s first registered electric passenger car, built around the Model C platform. The event is expected to reveal the production plans for the Model B and might also introduce new color options for the production version of Model B. However, Foxconn has declined to provide any official comments on these speculations.

As part of the Foxconn-Luxgen joint venture, Foxtron Vehicle has previously stated that the Model B sample vehicle is slated to make its debut in October. Market analysts expect the earliest launch of the Model B sample vehicle to target the Taiwanese market, with the progression aligning with the sales performance of Luxgen’s first electric passenger car.

Foxtron Vehicle has unveiled several EV prototypes, including Model B, Model C, Model E, and Model T. The production version of the Model T electric bus is already available in Taiwan, while the Model C electric passenger car has been designed for mass production and is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year. The Model C’s international release is forecasted for the third quarter of 2025.

(Photo credit: Foxconn)

With the approach to the end of 2023, TrendForce revealed the tech trends in every sector, apparently, AI continues as the main focus to decide the direction of how the tech supply chain will be in the next few years, here are the seeings:

CSPs increase AI investment, driving a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024

• CSPs increase AI investment, fueling a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024.
• Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS are driving this growth due to the rising popularity of AI applications, pushing AI server shipments to 1.2 million units in 2023.

HBM3e set to drive an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue

• Major memory suppliers are set to introduce HBM3e with faster speeds (8 Gbps) to enhance the performance of AI accelerator chips in 2024–2025.
• HBM integration is becoming common among GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and it is expected that HBM will significantly contribute to memory suppliers’ revenues in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 172%.

Rising demand for advanced packaging in 2024, the emergence of 3D IC technology

• Leading semiconductor firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are emphasizing advanced packaging technology’s importance in boosting chip performance, conserving space, reduce power usage, and minimize latency. They’re establishing 3D IC research centers in Japan to underscore this role.
• Generative AI is driving increased demand for 2.5D packaging tech, integrating computing chips and memory with a silicon interposer layer. Additionally, 3D packaging solutions like TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros.

NTN is set to begin with small-scale commercial tests, broader applications of this technology are on the way in 2024

• Collaboration between satellite operators, semiconductor firms, telecom operators, and smartphone makers is growing due to increased satellite deployments by operators. This collaboration focuses on mobile satellite communication applications and bidirectional data transmission under specific conditions.
• Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up efforts in satellite communication chips, leading top smartphone manufacturers to integrate satellite communication into high-end phones using the SoC model, which is expected to drive small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks and promote widespread adoption of NTN applications.

6G communication to begin in 2024, with satellite communication taking center stage

• 6G standardization begins around 2024-2025, with initial technologies expected by 2027-2028. This enables novel applications like Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC), NTN for high-altitude comms, and immersive Extended Reality (XR) experiences.
• Low-orbit satellites will play a key role in 6G as its standards solidify, peaking around the time of 6G commercialization. The use of drones for 6G communication and environmental sensing is also set to surge in the 6G era.

Innovative entrants drive cost optimization for Micro LED technology in 2024

• In 2023, the focus in Micro LED display technology is on cost reduction through chip downsizing, aiming for at least a 20-25% annual reduction. A hybrid transfer approach, combining stamping and laser bonding, is gaining attention for efficient mass production.
• Micro LED holds potential in micro-projection displays for transparent AR lenses. Challenges include achieving ultra-high PPI with 5 µm or smaller chips, particularly with red LEDs’ low efficiency. Various innovative approaches, such as InGan-based red LEDs and vertically stacked RGB LEDs.

Intensifying competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies

• Increasing AR/VR headset demand drives demand for ultra-high PPI near-eye displays, with Micro OLED technology at the forefront, poised for broader adoption.
• Challenges in brightness and efficiency impact Micro OLED displays and their dominance in the head-mounted display market depends on the development of various micro-display technologies.

Advancements in material and component technologies are propelling the commercialization of gallium oxide

• Gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is gaining prominence for next-gen power semiconductor devices due to its potential in high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency applications in EVs, electrical grids, and aerospace.
• The industry is already producing 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals and advancing Schottky diode and transistor fabrication processes, with the first Schottky diode products expected by 2024.

Solid-state batteries poised to reshape the EV battery landscape over the next decade

• Major automakers and battery manufacturers are investing in solid-state and semi-solid-state battery technologies, aiming for a new cycle of technological iteration by 2024.
• After Li-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, with lower energy density, are suitable for budget-friendly EVs, and hydrogen fuel cells offer long-range and zero emissions, primarily for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, with widespread adoption expected after 2025, despite challenges.

BEVs in 2024 rely on power conversion efficiency, driving range, and charging efficiency

• Automakers are optimizing battery pack structures and material ratios to increase energy density and driving range. Solid-state batteries, with high energy density, may see limited installations in vehicles as semi-solid batteries in 2H23.
• The 800V platform will enable high-power fast charging, leading to the expansion of high-power charging stations. AI advancements are driving EVs toward advanced autonomous driving, with Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer investing in neural network training to maintain its position in the intelligent driving market.

Green solutions with AI simulations emerging as a linchpin for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing

• Under the background of optimizing energy consumption, creating interconnected data ecosystems, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Carbon auditing tools and AI are key for organizations aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
• The IEA predicts global renewable energy generation to reach 4,500 GW by 2024, driven by policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and energy crises. The adoption of AI-driven smart technologies in peripheral systems for stable energy generation.

OLED’s expansion will across various applications driven by the innovation of foldable phones

• OLED folding phones are improving in design by using lightweight materials, innovative hinge structures, and cost-reduction efforts to approach the thickness and weight of traditional smartphones.
• In the IT sector, industry players like Samsung, BOE Technology, JDI, and Visionox are making significant investments and developments in OLED technology to expand into various markets. Anticipated advancements in technology and materials are expected to increase OLED market penetration by 2025.