Reports indicate that the United States is poised to unveil an updated set of restrictions on chip exports to China this week. Beyond the previously reported tightening measures on AI chips and equipment exports, these new regulations are expected to restrict the supply to chip design companies. The aim is to enhance control over the sale of graphic chips and advanced chip manufacturing equipment for AI applications to Chinese enterprises, with the possibility of adding Chinese chip design companies to the list of restricted entities.

As reported from Reuters and Bloomberg, U.S. authorities will demand that overseas manufacturers obtain licenses to fulfill orders from these companies and subject Chinese firms attempting to circumvent restrictions by using third-party countries for shipping to additional inspections. While the new regulations are expected to be announced this week, the potential for delays should not be ruled out.

In October 2022, the United States declared export restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and chip manufacturing equipment bound for China, as a measure to prevent the development of cutting-edge technology that could potentially bolster military capabilities for geopolitical adversaries.

Following the implementation of these export bans, U.S. tech companies, such as Nvidia and Applied Materials, incurred significant losses in orders. For example, Nvidia was unable to sell its two most advanced AI chips to Chinese companies, leading to the introduction of a “downgraded” chip, the H800, designed specifically for the Chinese market to bypass existing regulations.

U.S. officials have revealed plans to introduce new guidelines for AI chips, including the restriction of certain advanced data center AI chips that currently do not fall under any limitations. They are considering the removal of “bandwidth parameters” to prevent the entry of AI chips perceived as too powerful into China.

However, they plan to introduce expanded guidelines for chip control, which may reduce communication speeds among AI chips. Slower communication could increase the complexity and cost of AI development, particularly when many chips need to be connected for training large AI models. Additionally, the U.S. will introduce “performance density parameters” to guard against potential future workarounds by companies.

Reports suggest that the United States is looking to prohibit the export of Nvidia’s H800 chip, a “downgraded” chip designed for the Chinese market to legally bypass existing regulations.

The Biden administration is also preparing for additional scrutiny of Chinese companies attempting to modify shipping and manufacturing locations in a bid to evade specific country restrictions. This rule will continue to limit sales of specific chips to Chinese companies through overseas subsidiaries and related entities, requiring authorization before exporting restricted technology to countries that could serve as intermediaries.

Furthermore, the progress in Huawei’s new smartphones has prompted the U.S. authorities to tighten control further, initiating investigations for actions against Huawei or SMIC that will be carried out independently of the new export control regulations.

In response to the anticipated expansion of U.S. export controls on Chinese companies, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “We have made our position clear on US restrictions of chip exports to China. The US needs to stop politicizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues and stop destabilizing global industrial and supply chains. We will closely follow the developments and firmly safeguard our rights and interests.”

(Image: Nvidia)

In June of this year, Apple introduced the new Vision Pro headset, priced at $3,499, with plans to release it by early next year (by the end of April).

According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman in the Power On newsletter, Apple had been considering the development of a cheaper headset even before its June release, as the $3,499 price tag for the Vision Pro is a significant barrier to widespread adoption.

Reportedly, this more affordable follow-up version of the Vision Pro may abandon the use of an external display and Mac-grade chips to fall within the internal discussion range of $1,500 to $2,500. While not exceptionally cheap, it’s nearly half the price of $3,499.

Gurman also stated that this budget-friendly version might employ iPhone-grade chips rather than Mac-grade ones, reduce the number of cameras, and come equipped with a lower-resolution screen to cut costs.

It’s worth noting that forgoing an external display would mean Apple is eliminating a significant feature of the Vision Pro – EyeSight.

Upon first encountering the Vision Pro, individuals unfamiliar with VR technology might think the front of the device is a transparent glass, but in reality, it is an opaque display screen that also includes cameras, sensors, and chips, among other components.

Mike Rockwell, Vice President of the Vision Pro technology development team, explained that the display screen is not only curved but also lens-shaped. This means that users will see different images from various angles, in contrast to traditional 2D displays that can make the user’s eyes look unnatural, especially from a side view.

When someone approaches a user wearing the Vision Pro, the device’s field of view becomes transparent, allowing the user to see the person approaching, and the approaching person can also see the user’s eyes. When users are immersed in a spatial environment or using an app, EyeSight provides visual cues, letting others know what the user is focusing on.

In addition to developing a more affordable model, Apple is also working on a mature second-generation Vision Pro product. The new headset will have a smaller, lighter body and provide a more comfortable fit.

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(Image: Apple)

As TSMC’s earnings call approaches, the market is abuzz with rumors that the company may revise down its capital expenditure target for this year. This potential adjustment is believed to be driven by delays in Intel’s 3-nanometer outsourcing and the deferral of the production schedule for TSMC’s 4-nanometer US fab. The initial capital expenditure target, which was close to the $32 billion to $36 billion range, may now be lowered to below $30 billion, marking its lowest point in nearly three years.

According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC has refrained from commenting on these speculations. Even if TSMC does adjust its capital expenditure for this year, industry sources suggest that the company will increase its annual R&D expenses, continuing its commitment to advanced research and development.

In recent years, TSMC has rapidly expanded its capital expenditure, reaching a record high of $36.3 billion last year. In the first half of this year, the actual capital expenditure amounted to $18.11 billion, including $8.17 billion in the second quarter, slightly down from the $9.94 billion in the first quarter.

During their July earnings conference, TSMC stated that their capital expenditure for the year would remain in the range of $32 billion to $36 billion. However, considering market dynamics, the actual expenditure for the full year is expected to be towards the lower end of this range.

The latest reports suggest that due to the delays in Intel’s 3-nanometer outsourcing and the postponement of the 4-nanometer production schedule at the US fab, approximately $4 billion originally earmarked for this year’s capital expenditure may be postponed until next year, resulting in capital expenditure for this year falling below $30 billion. As for next year’s capital expenditure, it may remain on par with this year.

ASML, a leading supplier of semiconductor lithography equipment, previously revealed in its July earnings conference that there were delays in shipments of EUV equipment due to installation delays at customer factories. However, ASML maintained a robust order backlog and expects overall performance to continue growing in 2024.

Industry experts believe that the “installation delays” mentioned by ASML at that time were related to TSMC, and because of the delay in EUV equipment installation, TSMC’s capital expenditure for this year may be deferred accordingly.

Analysts in the industry suggest that if we consider TSMC’s earlier projection of capital expenditure falling within the $32 billion to $36 billion range, and subtract the actual expenses incurred in the first half of the year, the capital expenditure for the second half of the year could see a decline, estimated to be around $13.89 billion or more. If the postponement rumors materialize, second-half capital expenditure might fall below $10 billion.

Google focuses on AI and sensor upgrades with Pixel Watch 2, while Charge 6 smart wristbands may stand out in the market through AI applications.

TrendForce’s Insights:

In early October 2023, Google held its annual fall product launch event, introducing new smartphones, smartwatches, earphones, and AI assistant services. Regarding the Pixel Watch 2, Google opted for a relatively conservative upgrade compared to its competitors, with more significant changes expected in the smart wristband market through the application of generative AI.

1. Google’s New Products Align with Industry Trends, Focusing on AI – Pixel Watch 2 Highlights Sensor Upgrades

The third quarter of the year is an important period for major tech companies to hold product launch events. Following Apple’s event in September and the recently concluded Meta event, Google also hosted its Made By Google fall event in early October. Much like these other companies, Google focused on AI as the central theme of the event, enhancing its range of products and services. The highlights of this event include the Pixel 8 series smartphones, featuring AI-powered image editing, the Pixel Watch 2 with new sensors and monitoring capabilities, and the Pixel Buds Pro smart headphones that can adjust audio settings based on the user’s conversations. Additionally, Google, being a leading player in Generative AI, introduced an AI version of its Google Assistant service called “Assistant with Bard,” which is expected to enhance its app offerings through quick organization, predictive capabilities, and content generation, with deployment on a wider range of devices in the future.

A closer look at the specifications of the Pixel Watch 2 reveals that, compared to its predecessor released just a year ago, the hardware upgrades are not substantial. The primary differences include changes in the watch case material to align with environmental concerns, an upgraded processor, and a slight increase in battery capacity. However, the most significant improvements are in the sensors. The Pixel Watch 2 builds upon its existing features by introducing an electronic sensor for continuous skin conductance monitoring and a skin temperature sensor. Additionally, it has replaced the previous optical heart rate sensor with a multi-path sensor, enabling more precise measurements in different physiological conditions. This allows the watch to provide users with more accurate data, including temperature, heart rate variability (HRV), and other metrics.

Enhanced by advanced AI algorithms, the Pixel Watch 2 can analyze users’ sleep quality, stress levels, activity duration, and calorie expenditure. This allows the watch to provide all-day body response tracking, stress notifications, and guided breathing exercises, offering a range of new features.

2. Google Struggles in the Smartwatch Market; Smart Wristbands Poised for Market Differentiation through AI

Google’s latest release, the Pixel Watch 2, follows a strategy similar to that of other major players like Samsung and Apple in the smartwatch market. It represents a modest upgrade with little change in external appearance, and hardware specifications closely align with existing products in the market. On the software front, besides the new stress management features, other additions such as security checks, emergency sharing, and fall detection closely resemble those of the previous generation.

The primary reason for this conservative approach lies in the challenging global economic conditions and a declining industry landscape. Google’s smartwatch products face relative weakness in the market, lacking the extensive user base and brand loyalty enjoyed by giants like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei. Google also lacks the niche market segmentation seen in players like Garmin. These factors collectively position Google in a cautious stance regarding the development of smartwatches.

While Google has displayed a bit of hesitation in the smartwatch sector, its recent introduction, the Fitbit Charge 6 smart band, has garnered significant attention. Although its price exceeds that of the Huawei Band 8 and Xiaomi 8 Active, released later in 2023, by several folds, the Charge 6 leverages Google’s resources and hardware-software upgrades to emphasize its value. For instance, it incorporates a new machine learning algorithm derived from the Pixel Watch, ensuring more accurate heart rate monitoring. This marks Google’s first smart band integrated with Google Apps, offering seamless integration with widely used applications such as Google Maps, Google Wallet, YouTube Music, and more.

Furthermore, Google has hinted at the development of generative AI features during the Made by Google event. These AI-driven features are anticipated to analyze fitness trends and provide insights through chatbots, with potential integration into smartwatches and smart bands. With these advancements, Google aims to elevate its smart bands’ reputation through AI applications, setting it apart in the market, even in comparison to competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi.

As reported by multiple Japanese media, including Kyodo News, Nikkei, and Asahi Shimbun on the 13th and 14th of this month, negotiations for the merger between NAND flash memory giants Kioxia and Western Digital have reportedly reached the final stages. There is a high likelihood that a merger agreement will be reached within this month, and the newly merged company is expected to be listed on the NASDAQ in the United States. Additionally, the board of the new company will be predominantly controlled by Kioxia.

The primary objective of this business merger is to prepare for the uncertain conditions in the storage market. By expanding their scale and positioning for future investment competition, they aim to fortify their competitive edge.

Specifics of the Agreement are Still under Review

According to the reports, Kioxia and Western Digital will establish a holding company, KIOXIA Holdings. Western Digital’s storage business and Kioxia will be incorporated under this holding company, focusing on the research and production of NAND Flash. It’s worth noting that Western Digital’s hard drive business will remain an independent entity and will not be part of this transaction.

In terms of the merger’s enterprise value-based breakdown, Kioxia will hold 63%, and Western Digital will hold 37%. However, after considering capital adjustments, the final investment ratio in the holding company will be 50.1% for Western Digital shareholders and 49.9% for Kioxia shareholders.

Toshiba, which currently holds around 40% of Kioxia, will also become a shareholder in the holding company. The President of Kioxia, Nobuo Hayasaka, will assume the role of President of the holding company. Furthermore, the majority of seats on the board will be under Kioxia’s control, granting Kioxia substantial operational authority.

Factors and Potential Roadblocks in Kioxia and Western Digital Merger

Previously, it was reported that the headquarters of the holding company would be located in Japan. However, in order to facilitate fundraising for equipment investments, they plan to be listed on the NASDAQ in the United States. Furthermore, there are future plans for a listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. When Kioxia and Western Digital merge, Japan’s three major banks, including Mitsubishi UFJ, and the Japan Policy Investment Bank are considering providing financing in the range of 1.5 to 1.9 trillion Japanese yen.

However, the reality of this merger presents challenges, as influential industry competitors may potentially interfere. The finalized agreement will be subject to antitrust reviews in various countries, and the outcome of scrutiny by Chinese antitrust authorities remains uncertain.

According to data from TrendForce, in the Q2 of 2023, in the NAND memory market, Samsung leads with a market share of 31.1%, while Kioxia holds 19.6% and Western Digital maintains a 14.7% market share. Following the merger of Kioxia and Western Digital, their combined market share may exceed 34.3%, positioning them as the dominant force in the NAND memory market.

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