In the era of increasing electric vehicle penetration and automotive electrification, the future of cars resembles smartphones on wheels, demanding substantial computing power for advanced autonomous systems. As a result, future vehicles equipped with high-end self-driving systems are akin to mobile data centers. With the growth rate of the consumer electronics market slowing down, Self-Driving System-on-Chip (SoC) has become a crucial avenue for IC design firms to expand.

TrendForce Insights:

• Sluggish Growth in Consumer Electronics Market Spurs IC Design Firms to Focus on Self-Driving SoCs

With the deceleration in growth of mainstream consumer electronics products like smartphones and PCs, IC design firms are venturing into the automotive sector, with Self-Driving SoCs emerging as a key area of expansion. Key competitors in this space include NVIDIA, Mobileye, Qualcomm, Ambarella, and Horizon Robotics. Qualcomm, with solutions spanning smart cockpits, ADAS, and V2X, showcases its advantage in entering the automotive sector after years of success in the smartphone market. To avoid sustained dominance by international giants in the Chinese smart cockpit market, Chinese companies such as Siengine Technology, Navinfo, Autochips, Semidrive, Huawei, Rockchip, and Unisoc are actively entering this market.

• NVIDIA and Qualcomm Offer Broad Computing Capabilities, While Mobileye, Ambarella, and Horizon Robotics Bring Unique Strengths

NVIDIA and Qualcomm offer Self-Driving SoCs with broad computing capabilities. Initially targeting Level 4 and above autonomous driving, NVIDIA has adjusted its focus to Level 3 and below due to regulatory delays. Its high-computing SoCs cater to the computing needs of both smart cockpits and self-driving systems, achieving a “cockpit-and-drive integrated” approach. Qualcomm’s products cover computing requirements from Level 1 to 4. Intel’s Mobileye emphasizes low power consumption and integrates image sensing hardware and software. Both Ambarella and Mobileye possess core computer vision technologies, while Horizon Robotics provides highly open platforms to developers, offering software development tools (AIDI) and cloud-based AI training platforms. Horizon Robotics is also poised to benefit from China’s domestic production plans.

• NVIDIA’s Collaboration with MediaTek (Dimensity) is Crucial for Hardware-Software Integration

In May 2023, NVIDIA announced a partnership with MediaTek (Dimensity) to target the automotive market, with a focus on smart cockpits. NVIDIA concentrates on the main computing chips for in-vehicle computers and essential software, while MediaTek specializes in peripheral audiovisual entertainment and V2X communication systems. In Dimensity Auto, NVIDIA’s GPU and software are integrated, enabling the development of smart cockpit solutions. However, the collaborative car SoC development between MediaTek and NVIDIA is expected to launch by the end of 2025, with mass production slated for 2026-2027, necessitating a wait-and-see approach for the results of this collaboration.

Currently, high-end vehicles have software lines of code (SLOC) exceeding 100 million lines, more than double that of a PC. Vehicles with Level 5 self-driving systems in the future could potentially have over 1 billion lines of code. In the era of Software Defined Vehicles (SDV), hardware-software integration will be the key to competitiveness for manufacturers. NVIDIA, dominating the AI market with its CUDA platform, is well aware of this fact. Consequently, the results of NVIDIA’s collaboration with MediaTek (Dimensity) are highly anticipated.

(Photo credit: MediaTek)

The latest “Automotive Display Market Analysis” from TrendForce indicates that the overall demand for automotive display panels (automotive panels) is gradually stabilizing and shows an upward trend as the automotive market as a whole slowly recovers, and promotional activities related to smart cockpits continue to expand. TrendForce estimates that the overall supply of automotive panels will maintain growth for 2023. Additionally, by 2026, TrendForce forecasts that the annual total supply of automotive panels will surpass 240 million pieces. Furthermore, as panel makers improve their OLED products in terms of performance and cost optimization, the market share of OLED in the market for automotive panels is forecasted to reach 8.9% by 2026.

The ongoing inflation has resulted in a significant decline in the demand for consumer electronics, prompting panel manufacturers to shift their focus towards automotive displays. Regarding the development of automotive panels, automobile manufacturers are now increasingly demanding greater integration in terms of design and functionality. This opens up new opportunities for panel makers to expand their presence downstream by offering system integration services. Panel makers aim to loosen the tight control that traditional Tier-1 automotive suppliers have over various automotive parts and components. Specifically, for displays used in cockpit systems, panel manufacturers are looking to establish a new kind of supply relationship with automobile manufacturers.

Automotive displays, including rear-seat entertainment screens, passenger-side displays, central information displays, and digital clusters, are evolving into more powerful communication mediums. Moreover, to integrate the various independent functions found in a traditional cockpit, larger screens and more flexible spatial designs are required. Hence, there is room for further advancements in various display technologies. For instance, pairing LCDs with a Mini LED backlight can significantly boost display brightness to over 1,000 nits, thereby improving display visibility when external conditions like snow and bright sunlight could cause interference. OLED panels, in contrast to traditional LCDs, offer notable advantages. They are self-emissive and thinner. They have a higher refresh rate and can be built on flexible substrates. These advantages can provide significant added value for automotive displays. Flexible OLED panels, in particular, allow for more innovations in vehicle design and are primarily positioned for flagship and high-end products in the automotive market.

In order to resolve the issue of durability for OLED among automotive applications, the technology is mostly adopted with Tandem OLED, which inter-concatenates and stacks multiple OLED components to form a high-efficiency OLED structure. Double-stacked OLED components require 1/2 less current density than that of single-layer variations after concatenation and are able to improve by a minimum of a twofold increase in lifespan under a much lower power consumption from panels. As for cost, Hybrid OLED panels are incorporated, where the assimilation between rigid OLED glass substrates and the thin-film packing technology used by flexible OLED would both reduce weight and cut cost, and curving effects can also be attained through thinned substrates.

TrendForce commented that a closer partnership between panel makers and automobile manufacturers is bound to be inevitable, should the former wish to expedite their market shares, seeing how automotive displays require approximately 2-3 years for testing and qualification. Subsequent to Samsung Display successively acquiring major orders from Ferrari and BMW, automotive leader LG Display has also announced to enhance its partnership with 9 luxury automotive brands by widening in incorporation of high-end automotive OLED panels, and is scheduled to mass produce its second-generation Tandem OLED, which has been vastly improved in brightness and power consumption. While LCD adopted with Mini LED BLU (Mini LED backlight technology) races to seize the automotive market through cost advantages, OLED is accelerating its entry into the high-end automotive display market by launching ultra-large, rollable, and transparent products.

Source to UDN, in the wake of sluggish demand in the end-user market, the final stretch of September witnessed the tail end of a promotional surge in TV panel inventories as prices for panels below 50 inches seemed to reach a state of stagnation.

According to TrendForce’s view, Eric Chiou, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, has sounded the alarm, suggesting that TV panel prices may undergo a downward adjustment starting in November. This reflects a fourth-quarter demand that falls short of expectations, with continued weakness expected in the traditional off-season demand for the first half of next year.

Industry insiders contend that as TV panel pricing faces pressure to halt its upward trend, companies like AUO and Innolux, despite briefly enjoying profits this quarter, are likely to experience a downturn in their fourth-quarter performance, making it challenging to achieve an annual turnaround.

Eric Chiou analyzes that TV panel prices started rising in March this year. This was primarily a response to panel manufacturers’ consensus decision to reduce production after suffering heavy losses. However, due to the impact of a sluggish economy, terminal demand has failed to see significant improvement. Additionally, brand manufacturers, in response to rising panel prices, began planning early for the procurement of year-end panel needs in the second quarter and from July to August. This trend is already reflected in the pricing of TV panels below 50 inches, which has shown signs of stagnation since September.

In response to warnings from research institutions, it is feared that TV panel prices may cease to rise and may even decline in the fourth quarter. Yang Chu-hsiang, General Manager of Innolux, recently stated that the panel market’s prosperity is as unpredictable as a typhoon, and vigilance is required regarding the consumption power of the terminal market. He emphasized that panel manufacturers would not rush to maximize production but would instead make minor adjustments to meet demand steadily. He also reiterated the expectation that the second half of the year would be better than the first, with next year surpassing the current one.

During a recent earnings conference, the Chairman of AUO revealed that TV panel shipments increased by 5 percentage points in the second quarter. Coupled with cost-saving efforts, the operating gross profit turned positive for the quarter, and losses narrowed compared to the first quarter. Looking ahead to the third quarter, Peng remains optimistic, stating that “the worst time for the panel industry has passed.” With back-to-school and year-end sales seasons approaching, he anticipates that the “second half of the year will be better than the first.”

However, as the fourth quarter faces unfavorable global economic conditions, Eric Chiou believes that brand-end inventory for events like China’s Singles’ Day and the U.S. Black Friday promotions is taking a more pessimistic and conservative stance. September marks the tail end of the high-volume inventory period for TV panels, and with Chinese panel manufacturers having a significant share of TV products, they are expected to profit handsomely this season. On the other hand, Taiwanese manufacturers, with a relatively lower share of TV panel shipments, may hover near breakeven or see modest profits in the third quarter. If TV panel prices halt their upward trend in the fourth quarter, achieving the annual goal of returning to profitability may prove elusive.

(Source: https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/7462519)

According to Taiwan’s TechNews, with the ongoing reduction in production by major memory manufacturers and the visible benefits of inventory clearance in the market, NAND Flash prices are beginning to rebound, and DRAM prices are expected to follow suit. This signals a ray of hope for memory manufacturers who have endured the longest-ever price downturn, finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

To reduce losses, NAND Flash suppliers have implemented multiple production cuts since 2023, aiming to lift prices and halt further declines. This strategy has started to yield results, with reports of wafer contract prices for NAND Flash rebounding in August and continuing to rise in September, putting NAND Flash ahead of DRAM in its recovery.

Samsung, a leading player, has continued its production cuts, mainly focusing on products with less than 128 layers. Their September output decreased by nearly 50%, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit and demonstrate the benefits of inventory adjustments. Market experts also predict that NAND Flash prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. TrendForce is optimistic about NAND Flash pricing for Q4, estimating an increase of around 3% to 8%, higher than the initial projection of 0% to 5%.

While DRAM price increases have lagged behind NAND Flash, the benefits of production cuts by major manufacturers and accelerated inventory clearance are expected to lead to a gradual price rise starting in the fourth quarter. Market expectations are that this upward trend will mark the beginning of the next growth cycle.

Industry experts point out that the rise in DRAM prices is not only due to factors like production cuts and inventory clearance but also linked to the artificial intelligence market. The demand for DDR5 in the data center market driven by AI applications has limited capacity supply, leading to an early price surge. Additionally, DDR3, which major manufacturers have gradually phased out but still has market demand due to limited supply, is experiencing a significant price increase.

As for the current mainstream DDR4, although manufacturers are working to clear substantial inventories in hopes of boosting prices, there is still unfavorable news in the market. Intel’s new Meteor Lake computing platform only supports DDR5 and not DDR4, which poses additional challenges for manufacturers with high DDR4 inventories.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to a report from Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC’s 3-nanometer technology has attracted another heavyweight client. Following Apple and MediaTek, it is rumored that Qualcomm will also commission TSMC to produce its next-generation 5G flagship chip using the 3-nanometer process. The chip is expected to be unveiled in late October, making Qualcomm the third client for TSMC’s 3-nanometer technology.

In response to these rumors, Qualcomm has not provided any comments, while TSMC has chosen to remain silent. Industry experts speculate that TSMC’s 3-nanometer technology will likely attract additional orders from major players such as NVIDIA and AMD in the future. With various leading-edge fabs continuously seeking TSMC’s services, it appears that TSMC’s 3-nanometer technology remains the top choice for international giants.

Last year, Qualcomm unveiled its annual 5G flagship chip, the “Snapdragon 8 Gen 2,” manufactured using TSMC’s 4-nanometer process. The previous-generation Snapdragon “8 Gen 1” was produced using Samsung’s 4-nanometer process, but it encountered issues related to heat dissipation. Consequently, Qualcomm released an upgraded version, the “Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1,” using TSMC’s 4-nanometer process.

Qualcomm has traditionally adopted a multi-supplier strategy for semiconductor manufacturing. It is rumored in the industry that Qualcomm has privately informed its smartphone brand customers about the upcoming next-generation 5G flagship chip, the “Snapdragon 8 Gen 3,” expected to be announced in late October. This chip will be available in two process versions: TSMC’s 4-nanometer (N4P) and 3-nanometer (N3E).

(Photo credit: TSMC)