On September 12, 2023, Apple unveiled its iPhone 15 series at its annual fall product launch event. The four models introduced were the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max.

TrendForce’s Perspective:

• Limited Key Features with a Focus on High-End Models

Upon examining the four new devices released by Apple, it becomes evident that, similar to the iPhone 14 series introduced in 2022, Apple has continued to adopt a “focus on high-end upgrades” strategy. The higher-tier Pro series highlights upgrades such as the inclusion of the new A17 Pro processor (manufactured using TSMC’s 3nm process), a titanium metal casing, and a charging port that supports USB 3.0 with 10Gbps transfer speed. Additionally, the flagship Pro Max model introduces a periscope camera module capable of achieving 5x optical zoom for the first time.

In contrast, the lower-tier iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus show relatively modest upgrades. They feature the previous generation A16 Bionic processor (manufactured using TSMC’s 4nm process), and while their charging ports adhere to USB standards, they only support USB 2.0 transfer speeds. The most notable upgrade for these models is the inclusion of dynamic islands and an upgraded 48MP main camera. This strategy clearly distinguishes Apple’s products across different price ranges, and the “focus on high-end upgrades” approach aims to drive up the average selling price (ASP) and subsequently increase revenue.

• The Chinese Market Remains a Significant Variable

Just two weeks ago, Huawei quietly released 5G smartphones, despite still facing restrictions from the U.S. in chip technology. This resulted in a significant gap between the chip manufacturing process used in Huawei’s new devices (SMIC N+2, roughly equivalent to TSMC’s 7nm process) and the most advanced process technology (TSMC’s 3nm) currently available. Nevertheless, consumer response in China has been positive, and there have been reports of Huawei continually revising its new device shipment figures.

Despite Apple’s supply chain diversifying away from China due to international geopolitical risks, China remains an extremely important market for Apple. Apple previously benefited from Huawei’s withdrawal from the high-end smartphone market in China due to sanctions, capturing a significant portion of Huawei’s market share in the country. Even as the global smartphone market faces challenges, Apple continues to experience growth in China’s high-end market. With the strong resurgence of Huawei as a formidable competitor and reports of China potentially banning government officials from using iPhones and other foreign brands, if confirmed, it is likely to impact iPhone sales. Given the various challenges within the Chinese market, Apple’s ability to maintain strong sales performance will be the biggest variable for the iPhone 15’s success.

(Photo credit: Apple)

TrendForce’s latest insights reveal that by 2023, shipments of foldable smartphones could skyrocket to an impressive 18.3 million units, marking a 43% YoY surge. However, this only captures a slim 1.6% of the year’s total smartphone market. Fast forward to 2024, and we’re looking at another leap—a 38% growth, translating to a hefty 25.2 million units and nudging the market share up to 2.2% Looking at the medium to long term, TrendForce believes the expansion of the foldable smartphone market is inevitable. By 2027, shipments could soar to a whopping 70 million units, seizing around 5% of the global smartphone market.

The driving force behind the foldable market’s expansion? Reduced costs and the expansion strategies of Chinese brands. TrendForce posits that as the cost of components plummets—especially panel and hinge expenses—the stage is set for foldable phone prices to potentially slide below the US$1,000 threshold. This shift would undeniably spur consumer interest and purchase intent.

Branding paints its own picture. This year, Samsung once again led the pack, with projections pointing toward a robust 12.5 million unit shipment. But there’s a twist. Its stronghold, a staggering 82% market share in 2022, slipped to 68%. Why? It’s because of the surging tidal wave of foldables from Chinese contenders. Huawei clinched the runner-up spot, estimated to have dispatched around 2.5 million foldables for a respectable 14% of the market share. Hot on their heels were OPPO and Xiaomi, with market shares of 5% and 4%, respectively. Other brands have each snagged less than 4%.

Pandemic repercussions echo here too. TrendForce sheds light on the fact that Chinese foldable brands, impacted by recent global events, have mostly kept their eyes on home turf, eschewing aggressive overseas expansion. However, if these brands pivot and ramp up their global sales game, they might just turbocharge the foldable market’s growth trajectory.

And then, there’s Apple—the enigmatic juggernaut. To date, Apple’s foray into foldables has been tepid, to say the least. This restraint has undoubtedly doused consumer fervor for foldable. Yet, true to form, Apple’s unwavering obsession with user experience could be the culprit. Persistent challenges with foldable tech—think panel evenness and hinge design—might be holding them back. But here’s the kicker: Achieving perfection with larger foldable panels is somewhat simpler than their smaller counterparts. Could this mean Apple might leapfrog right into medium-sized foldable products—like laptops or tablets? Only time will tell.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforce.com

(Photo credit: Samsung)

DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of chips in the lower price range have started to elevate this week as some NAND Flash suppliers are very committed to raising their spot prices. On the whole, there has been some stabilization of DRAM spot prices, and the overall volume of spot transactions has also increased a bit. Looking ahead in the short term, it remains to be seen whether suppliers’ ongoing production cuts will spur buyers to stock up. However, spot prices are expected to remain mostly flat until the end of this year. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.28% from US$1.450 last week to US$1.454 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Buyers, concerned over the cessation of low prices, are continuously proposing order inquiries, though they are hesitant towards following up on prices and hoarding inventory during actual transactions. Continuity of transaction dynamics is not apparent in the spot market, where several packaged dies are seeing repeated fluctuations. Compared to the panicked purchases over the past several weeks, buyers have now composed themselves, and are deciding on procurements based on the recovery of demand. Wafer remains as the category with a clearer inflation tendency, where 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed 2.02% in the spot market this week, arriving at US$1.620.

Source to ChinaTimes, according to rumors in the mobile industry, due to increasing uncertainties in the mainland Chinese market, Apple plans to make India one of the first launch markets for its iPhone 15 series and aims to produce the iPhone 15 series simultaneously in India and China. By manufacturing and selling locally in India, Apple hopes to reduce the uncertainties in the Chinese market.

Reports from ICsmart suggest that industry rumors indicate that as mainland China continues to increase regulatory measures, Apple is also accelerating its expansion into India to mitigate uncertainties in the Chinese market. Suppliers have revealed that in the past, the production of new iPhones in India lagged behind China by about a year, but last year, the production gap had narrowed to approximately one month. Apple is now even more determined to expedite the production of the iPhone 15 in India this year, with the goal of achieving near-simultaneous production in both China and India or reducing the production gap to within 10 days.

The report points out that before the iPhone 14, Apple only assembled a small portion of its phones in India, with a shipment schedule lagging behind China by 6 to 9 months. However, this gap was significantly reduced last year. By the end of March this year, 7% of Apple’s iPhones were produced in India. Foreign estimates suggest that by around 2025, the proportion of iPhones manufactured in India could reach 25%.

TrendForce believes India will become the second-largest production site for iPhone

According to TrendForce insights, Apple is indeed aiming to produce more iPhones in India. From the iPhone 14 series, The company manufactured iPhones almost simultaneously in India and China, reducing the initial production gap between the two countries.

If we take a look at iPhone assembly capacity, there is still around 5% in India. Although Apple plans to bring not only assembly but also key component vendors from China to India, supply chain partners are showing a passive attitude toward establishing production sites there, considering India’s policies, languages, cultural factors, and vulnerable infrastructures.

Foreign vendors will face the challenges above, however, as for Indian local vendors, challenges are mainly on technical capabilities, Therefore the most effective way to enter Apple’s supply chain is to acquire companies/factories that are already on the certified list. Just like the Tata Group did.

Also, TrendForce indicates, that with Apple’s intention, PLI, and the following incentive policies, we believe India will gradually become the second-largest production site of the iPhone in the future. However foreign vendors should be willing to suffer higher costs or successfully obtain any form of compensation from Apple, otherwise the transition process will continue to be slow.

The Indian “Economic Times” notes that with the release of the iPhone 15 series this week, the Indian market has the opportunity to be among the first countries for sales. Additionally, it is expected that after December, iPhones manufactured in India will be exported to Europe and the United States, signaling Apple’s progress in diversifying its supply chain. Apple is already the largest smartphone exporter in India.

The report indicates that Apple has raised its annual growth target for sales in over 200 premium retail stores in India for the second and third quarters to nearly 100%. Apple CEO Tim Cook also mentioned in the latest earnings conference call that the company broke its revenue record in India, the world’s third-largest smartphone market, and achieved double-digit sales growth.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20230912005365-260409?chdtv)

According to a report in the Shanghai Securities News, Xiaomi’s automobile production facility in Tongzhou, China has entered the final stages of production testing and debugging. Xiaomi Group’s Chairman, Lei Jun, has recently led the senior executives of Xiaomi’s automotive division in conducting summer road tests in Xinjiang to expedite the commencement of mass production for their new vehicles once they secure the necessary approvals.

The entire facility encompasses six workshops, including die casting, stamping, body assembly, painting, final assembly, and battery assembly. In the casting workshop, the signage for “Xiaomi Super Die Casting” has been displayed, indicating the possibility that Xiaomi’s automotive division may adopt advanced integrated die-casting technology similar to Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.

As previously disclosed, Xiaomi’s automotive subsidiary, with a registered capital of 10 billion RMB, is headquartered in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Area, with Lei Jun as its legal representative. According to Lei Jun’s plan, Xiaomi’s first vehicle will be positioned in the mid-to-high-end segment and is expected to enter mass production in the first half of 2024. As of the end of 2022, Xiaomi’s automotive research and development team has grown to over 2,300 personnel, with more than 700 patent applications and over 360 authorized patents. The production of their first vehicle has been moved up to Q1 2024, with a strategic goal of achieving a top-five global automotive ranking within 15 to 20 years.

(Photo credit: Xiaomi)