On October 15th, Intel and AMD announced the formation of an x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group. According to the press release, these two tech giants established this group to enhance architectural interoperability and simplify software development for the x86 system.

Other members of this x86 Ecosystem Advisory group include industry leaders from Broadcom, Dell, Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP Inc., Lenovo, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Red Hat.

The press release stated that for over forty years, x86 has served as the foundation of modern computing, establishing itself as the preferred architecture in data centers and PCs worldwide.

According to a report from Forbes, x86 has long been the dominant architecture in both datacenters and PCs, while Arm has a strong presence in smartphones and IoT. However, Arm has recently started to encroach on x86’s territory, as seen in its increasing adoption within hyperscale datacenters and its emerging role in Microsoft’s Copilot+ PC initiative.

A report from Reuters stated that Intel and AMD have formed this group in response to the challenges posed by the rise of Arm Holdings, which is increasingly adopted by tech giants including Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

According to the report from Reuters, one of the main reason behind Arm’s success is that Arm has indicated in its contracts that all Arm chips should be able to run all Arm software, regardless of who made the chip.

The report noted that, in contrast, while Intel and AMD use the same foundational x86 technology in their chips, software may require adjustments to function properly across their products.

To address this issue, one of the main objectives of the x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group is to identify “new ways to expand the x86 ecosystem by enabling compatibility across platforms,” as stated in the press release.

Intel and AMD have a rich history of both competition and collaboration within the industry, which makes this partnership quite interesting. In the past decade, Intel’s dominance in the laptop processors has gradually declined. In some sectors, AMD even caught up and overtook Intel’s throne.

Amid Intel’s efforts for restructuring, previous rumors even indicate that AMD could be a potential buyer of Intel’s Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) unit Altera.

On the other hand, the two companies’  joint efforts have played a crucial role in developing key technologies such as PCI, PCIe, and the Advanced Configuration and Power Interface (ACPI).

Additionally, both companies have been crucial in the development of USB, an essential connectivity standard for all computers, regardless of the processor.

This advisory group aims to elevate their collaborative efforts further, benefiting the entire computing ecosystem and serving as a catalyst for product innovation.

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(Photo credit: Intel)

Japan’s industrial production declined in August, according to data released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on October 15. Industrial production in August fell by 4.9% year-over-year, a 6% drop compared to the previous month.

On a month-over-month basis, industrial production decreased by 3.3% in August, down 6.4% from the prior month, and below the market expectation of -0.5%.

By sector, approximately 80% of industries saw a decline in output. The automotive industry, in particular, saw a monthly drop of 10.7% (previously 1.9%) and an annual decrease of 15.4% (previously 2.0%), reflecting the impact of halted production due to data falsification by automakers and weak overseas car sales.

Meanwhile, machinery production fell by 7.8% month-over-month (previously -4.6%) and by 7.8% year-over-year (previously 0.9%), driven by weakening overseas demand.

METI forecasts industrial production to increase by 2.0% in September and by 6.1% in October. However, even if production rises as expected in September, third-quarter output may still be lower than in the second quarter.

Industrial production accounts for approximately 40% of Japan’s GDP. With uncertainty in domestic demand from both the U.S. and China, coupled with the potential end of the global manufacturing growth cycle, Japan’s export and production outlook remains uncertain, adding further pressure on its economic growth.

Read more at Datatrack

In September, Qualcomm was rumored to be investigating the possibility of acquiring parts of Intel’s design business to enhance its product portfolio, as it is reportedly interested in Intel’s PC business. Now a latest report by Bloomberg indicates that the smartphone chip giant might wait until after the US presidential election in November to make its decision.

Citing sources familiar with the situation, the report notes that Qualcomm hopes to seek greater clarity on the incoming president’s policies, as the new administration could significantly affect the antitrust environment and US-China relations.

The sources further note that Qualcomm may even choose to wait until after the new US president’s inauguration in January, 2025, to determine its next move regarding a potential Intel transaction due to the complexities involved.

The merger of the two tech giants would inevitably attract significant scrutiny from antitrust regulators globally, which includes China, as it is a crucial market for both, Bloomberg suggests. Therefore, it is understood that Qualcomm informally consulted with antitrust regulators in China to assess their position on any possible deal in September, though no response has been received, according to the report.

On the other hand, in the U.S. market, as Intel plays a central role in Washington’s strategy for revitalizing domestic chip manufacturing, political support would be essential for any potential deal, Bloomberg notes.

The report indicates that Intel is set to receive the largest share of funding from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, provided it proceeds with its factory construction plans. Qualcomm has been in discussions with US regulators and believes that an all-American merger could alleviate any concerns, according to sources familiar with the situation cited by the report.

It is also worth noting that submitting a bid after the election could provide Qualcomm with additional advantages, as it can wait until Intel to release its third-quarter earnings later this month, Bloomberg says. If Intel’s stock price continues to slide after its upcoming financial announcement, Qualcomm could benefit by getting a bargain.

According to the analysts’ projection quoted by Bloomberg, Intel is likely to suffer another net loss of over USD 1 billion this time around. The struggling chipmaking company reported a USD 1.6 billion net loss for the April to June quarter.

Representatives from Qualcomm and Intel declined to comment, and the State Administration for Market Regulation in China did not respond to requests for feedback, according to Bloomberg.

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(Photo credit: Qualcomm)

As ASML accidentally released its financial report nearly a day ahead of its schedule due to a “technical error,” the Dutch semiconductor giant’s Q3 performance and its forecast for 2025 have also startled all by reporting orders at half of what the market predicted, raising concerns on the lackluster outlook of semiconductors despite strong demand for AI-related chips, according to the reports by Bloomberg and Reuters.

The result is regarded as a warning signal, as it might imply the weak performance for ASML’s major clients, such as tech heavyweights Intel and Samsung, the reports note. TSMC, another of ASML’s client, will release its Q3 earnings results tomorrow.

ASML shares plummeted 16%, marking their largest drop since June, 1998, the reports by Reuters and Bloomberg state.

Lackluster Q3 Bookings and 2025 Outlook as Customers Remain Cautious

ASML, known for producing the world’s most advanced chipmaking equipment such as High-NA EUV machines, posted a net profit of 2.1 billion euros on revenue of 7.5 billion euros (USD 8.2 billion) in Q3. However, it reported third-quarter bookings of €2.6 billion (USD 2.8 billion), falling short of the average estimate of €5.39 billion from analysts surveyed, according to Bloomberg.

According to its press release, ASML revised its 2025 total net sales forecast to a range of €30 billion to €35 billion, down from its previous estimate of up to €40 billion.

For next year, the company anticipates a gross margin between 51% and 53%, lower than the prior projection of 54% to 56%, mainly due to delays in the rollout of its high-end extreme ultraviolet machines.

According to a statement by ASML Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet cited by the reports, the recovery of the semiconductor industry is progressing more slowly than anticipated, and this cautious outlook is expected to persist into 2025, leading to more conservative behavior from customers.

Key Clients in Trouble while Chip War Remains an Issue

It is worth noting that according to Reuters, ASML indicates that despite strong demand for AI-related chips, other segments of the semiconductor market are facing prolonged weakness. This has caused logic chip manufacturers to postpone orders, while memory chip companies are only planning “limited” expansions in new capacity.

According to a report from South Korean media outlet Business Korea, Samsung is said to mull to reduce its procurement of ASML’s next-generation EUV lithography equipment. Reportedly, Samsung initially planned to purchase more than three units of the next versions, EXE:5200, EXE:5400, and EXE:5600, over the next ten years. However, the company has now decided to introduce only the EXE:5200.

On the other hand, another struggling semiconductor giant, Intel, has secured five units of High-NA EUV machines from ASML to ensure its progress with the 2nm node, according to a previous report by TheElec. However, as the company has been doing its best to reduce expenses through restructuring and delaying overseas expansion, whether it will stick to the original purchase plan remains to be seen.

The report by Bloomberg also warns that while China was ASML’s largest market, the demand from China may slow in the coming periods, as Washington’s ongoing chip war with Beijing remains a persistent long-term concern for ASML.

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• [News] Intel Completes Assembly of Second High-NA EUV System, ASML Confirms
• [News] Samsung Reportedly Reduces Procurement of ASML’s Next-Generation EUV Lithography Equipment

(Photo credit: ASML)

According to reports from the Commercial Times, the PC chip supply chain has seen a surge in activity as government subsidies in mainland China have expanded to cover major cities. This has prompted brands to increase their orders, boosting short-term demand for the current quarter. Related IC design companies are expected to benefit from this trend.

The report reveals that the supply chain is responding to the rollout of home appliance subsidies in China, which initially covered only select cities. As other regions follow suit, demand for replacement and upgrades has surged, prompting brands to increase their stock, leading to more orders for IC suppliers.

However, some IC companies remain cautious, believing that the current demand surge may simply be pulling forward orders that would have been placed in the first quarter of next year. Since the subsidies end by the close of this year, they fear this could lead to a short-lived boom.

On the other hand, more optimistic players believe that as major IC manufacturers like AMD, Qualcomm, and Intel roll out NPUs with over 40 TOPS of computing power, combined with post-pandemic replacement demand, the market will see a significant boost. These companies are also expected to launch products at various price points, making AI-powered PCs more affordable in the coming year.

The report also noted that the PC market is expected to become more competitive as both x86 and Arm architectures begin supporting new AI applications. It is understood that some companies will start purchasing Arm-based PCs next year, signifying that Arm-based PCs have successfully entered the commercial sector, which will have a positive impact on building a complete ecosystem in the future.

Industry sources cited by the Commercial Times believe Qualcomm will be the first to benefit, while MediaTek is gearing up, with its chips expected to debut in the second quarter of next year and enter mass production in the third quarter.

(Photo credit: Samsung)