According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, China’s Haitong Securities has taken the lead in reducing shipment expectations before Apple’s upcoming new product launch next month. The company has lowered the shipment forecast from the initial 83 million units to 77 million units, marking a decrease of 6 million units.

Industry experts point out that lackluster demand in the end market and challenges in the manufacturing process are the main reasons behind the market’s growing skepticism towards iPhone 15 shipment numbers.

Haitong Securities indicates that Apple’s iPhone 15 shipment volume could be revised down to 77 million units. This is primarily due to lower-than-expected yield rates for the CMOS image sensors (CIS) provided by Sony for the periscope lenses. The production bottleneck for iPhone 15 and Plus models is Sony’s 3-layer CIS structure (PD/TX + pixel + ISP), leading to subpar production yields.

Industry experts also mention that the high difficulty in producing the titanium metal frame is attributed to the differing coefficients of thermal expansion between titanium and aluminum. However, this issue can be managed by increasing Foxconn’s production capacity.

The LIPO (Low Injection Pressure Overmolding) screen, on the other hand, faces low yield rates from LG and will need Samsung’s support. Nonetheless, the supply situation for these two components should reach a controlled stage.

Industry sources believe that delays in production for iPhone 15 stem from Sony’s lens sensors, the new titanium alloy frame, and the 1.55mm narrow border screen. However, the primary reason for Apple’s adjustment of iPhone 15’s sales target remains concerns over demand. Both the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are expected to come with higher price tags, potentially dampening consumer willingness to purchase. The decision to trim production plans prior to the new phone’s release warrants close attention to whether it garners consumer acceptance after hitting the market.

Based on a recent analysis by TrendForce, LG Display is encountering a challenge with its supply of 6.7-inch panels and chassis for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The issue revolves around tolerance, leading to the development of a growing dark spot (GDS) once the components are assembled. Unfortunately, this problem has hindered the successful passage of quality verification tests. Consequently, LGD’s production timeline is anticipated to face a one-month delay, awaiting the resumption of shipments following the completion of revalidation later this month. To manage the reduced panel supply during this interim period, Samsung Display (SDC) will step in and provide supplementary support.

From the standpoint of downstream assembly facilities, the adjustments in supply have the potential to impact production operations in Zhengzhou for approximately two weeks. It’s projected that by ramping up production subsequently, these effects can be mitigated.

On a different note, BOE has successfully achieved its goal for this year by participating in the development of panels for both the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus. However, owing to recent quality concerns necessitating mask adjustments, they might encounter a significant decrease in shipments. Simultaneously, since SDC is a key supplier for these two new models as well, they will step up to fill the void created by BOE’s supply shortfall.

Taking a historical perspective on BOE’s involvement in supplying iPhone panels, their journey began with the iPhone 12, providing components for repairs, and subsequently transitioning into regular supply for the iPhone 13. Their prowess in LTPS and OLED technology has been acknowledged. However, with the introduction of the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus models, which incorporate the Dynamic Island design featuring a center-hole punch, the demands placed on the panels have become more stringent. The alteration in mask design is likely a pivotal factor that requires additional time for BOE to optimize panel yield and quality.

TrendForce underscores that the issue pertaining to panel quality only marginally affects the overarching shipping schedule for the iPhone 15 series. Its main consequence lies in the reshuffling of panel suppliers, while SDC continues to assert its dominance as the primary supplier of new model iPhone panels this year, accounting for nearly 70% of the market share.

The global automotive landscape is undergoing a decisive shift toward new energy vehicles (NEVs). TrendForce reports that in 1H23, NEV sales—which encompass battery electricity vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)—soared to an impressive 5.462 million units, reflecting a growth of 33.6% YoY. Specifically, Q2 sales reached 3.03 million units, a 42.8% YoY surge, constituting 14.4% of total car sales for the period, and playing a pivotal role in 1H23 growth.

In Q2, BEVs alone posted sales of 2.151 million units, marking 39.3% growth YoY. While Tesla maintains the lead with a market share of 21.7%, BYD trails closely behind with a boosted share of 16.2%. Moreover, GAC Aion, a brand that has been making waves primarily in the Chinese market with its high value-for-money proposition, clinched the third spot with a 6% market share. Recently, the company has launched high-end models priced above CNY 220,000, aiming to diversify its product range. The top 10 BEV brands in Q2 remained fairly consistent with Q1, with only a minor shuffling in ranks. However, compared to the same period in 2022, fewer Chinese brands made the list, likely due to the growing number of EV models from traditional automakers and fierce competition among Chinese brands.

PHEVs weren’t left behind, registering sales of 876,000 units in Q2—a striking 52.9% YoY increase. Astonishingly, about 66% these sales hailed from the Chinese market. In this segment, BYD continued its lead with a whopping 36.5% market share. Its high-end subsidiary Denza, recorded increasing sales, escalating its market share to 3.4% and climbing to seventh place. Another brand to watch, Li Auto, set a new Q2 record with 87,000 units sold, keeping its second-place position firm with 10% market share. Among international competitors, both Volvo and Jeep noted growth over the previous year, with Jeep crossing 30,000 units, an achievement that’s brought them into the top five for the first time.

While major markets including China, Western Europe, and the US continue to dominate NEV sales, emerging players like Thailand and Australia have made significant strides in 2023. Both nations exceeded 35,000 units in sales in 1H23, with Thailand quadrupling its 2022 figures and Australia experiencing a fivefold increase.

Although these figures are modest in comparison to global sales, they highlight the vast potential of these markets. Recognizing this growth trajectory, many major automobile brands are strategically planning their expansions into these burgeoning regions.

In recent market speculations, TSMC is rumored to have reduced its 8-inch wafer manufacturing quotes by as much as 30%, with subsequent reports suggesting that South Korean wafer foundries are following suit in lowering 8-inch wafer production prices.

According to TrendForce’s channel check, TSMC’s current strategy for 8-inch processes involves bundling spot deal negotiations with one-time pricing or offering discounts and rebates on initial NRE fees, without implementing an across-the-board price cut.

However, observations from the order books indicate a genuine decline in demand for 8-inch products. Presently, customers have started revising their orders through the first quarter of 2024. The possibility of TSMC reducing prices for 8-inch wafers cannot be ruled out.

Similarly, the industry has also seen reports of South Korean wafer foundries Samsung and Dongbu HiTek considering price reductions for their 8-inch wafer plants. TrendForce indicates that the price adjustments in South Korea’s 8-inch wafer foundries follow a similar pattern of spot deal reductions, primarily centered around one-time negotiations. Customers with long-term agreement already have lower prices, without any instances of price reduction.

Both 12-inch and 8-inch wafer fabrication utilization rates have shown less-than-expected recovery, leading TrendForce to estimate a year-on-year decrease of around 13% in the overall semiconductor foundry revenue for 2023.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, global smartphone brands are set to introduce a series of flagship-level new products. Following the introduction of Apple’s A17 chip using TSMC’s 3-nanometer process, Qualcomm’s next-generation processor Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and MediaTek’s Dimensity 9300 are expected to be unveiled in October. These chips will be manufactured using TSMC’s N4P process, with plans to further transition to the N3E process next year.

Industry source have indicated that TSMC’s 3-nanometer yield is gradually improving, coupled with the return of N4P orders, providing a counterbalance against the impact of sluggish end market demand.

Commercial Times’ report highlights that TSMC previously expressed strong demand for its N3 process, projecting substantial growth in the second half of the year. The N3 process will support high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone platforms, with an anticipated contribution of 4-6% to the company’s revenue in 2023. Additionally, N3E has already been verified and received its first batch of customer product design approvals, with mass production expected to commence in the fourth quarter. TSMC aims to achieve a monthly production capacity of 100,000 wafers in its 3-nanometer process by the end of the year to cater to Apple’s demands.

According to Bloomberg’s recent exposure of Apple’s projected M3 processor product roadmap set for release this fall, the basic M3 processor consists of 4 high-performance and 4 energy-efficient cores, paired with 10 GPU cores. M3 Pro comes in two versions: a basic version equipped with 12 cores (6 high-performance and 6 energy-efficient) and 18 GPU cores, and a higher-tier version with 14 CPU cores and 20 GPU cores.

M3 Max also offers two versions, featuring a fully-equipped 16-core CPU. The main difference between the basic and higher-tier versions lies in the GPU cores—32 for the former and a whopping 40 for the latter. The most powerful variant, M3 Ultra, essentially doubles the configuration of M3 Max, boasting 32 CPU cores paired with either 64 or 80 GPU cores. Industry experts widely regard TSMC as the primary beneficiary of these developments.

(Photo credit: TSMC)